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思摩尔国际:雾化稳健成长、HNB未来可期,费用投放影响短期盈利
Xinda Securities· 2025-04-08 01:23
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its vaping segment, while the future of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products looks promising, although increased expenditure is impacting short-term profitability [1][2] - The company is expected to face challenges with disposable products due to tightening regulations in various countries, but there is potential for growth in the APV and HNB segments [2][3] - The U.S. market is crucial for the company, with expectations for the launch of new HNB products, which could enhance market share and revenue [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 192 million yuan, a decrease of 43.4% year-on-year, with total comprehensive income of 208 million yuan, down 32.9% year-on-year [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.799 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6%, and net profit expected to be 1.303 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 21% year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.411 billion yuan, 2.337 billion yuan, and 3.032 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.9X, 24.1X, and 18.6X [4][5] Market and Product Insights - The company is positioned as a key supplier for British American Tobacco, which is expanding its HNB product offerings in various markets, including the U.S. [3] - The anticipated launch of the IQOS ILUMA in the U.S. is expected to further pressure traditional cigarette sales, leading to increased focus on HNB product development [3] - The company is expected to benefit from its unique production capabilities and technology, which may help mitigate tariff pressures in the U.S. market [4]
思摩尔国际(06969):雾化稳健成长、HNB未来可期,费用投放影响短期盈利
Xinda Securities· 2025-04-08 00:45
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its vaping segment, while the future of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products looks promising, although increased expenses are impacting short-term profitability [1] - The company reported a net profit of 192 million yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 43.4% year-on-year, with total comprehensive income of 208 million yuan, down 32.9% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates a stable revenue stream for Q1, with profit pressure primarily due to increased expenses and a higher tax rate compared to the previous year [1] Summary by Sections Market Environment - The report highlights regulatory changes affecting disposable vaping products in Belgium, France, and the UK, which are expected to pressure the company's performance in this segment [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in its APV and refillable products overseas, with a trend of year-on-year improvement anticipated [2] HNB Product Development - The company is positioned to benefit from the expansion of HNB products in the US market, with expectations for the launch of new products by PMI [3] - The report notes that the US market is crucial for the company, with projected revenue and adjusted operating profit contributions of 44% and 54%, respectively [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 1.41 billion yuan in 2025, 2.34 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.03 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.9X, 24.1X, and 18.6X [4] - Total revenue is expected to grow from 11.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 17.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23% [5] - The report outlines a decrease in net profit for 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, with growth rates of 8% in 2025 and 66% in 2026 [5][7] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to increase from 27.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.85 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][7] - The report provides detailed financial metrics, including operating income, net profit, and earnings per share (EPS), with EPS expected to rise from 0.21 yuan in 2024 to 0.49 yuan in 2027 [5][6]
思摩尔国际(06969):英美扩张节奏清晰,核心供应商地位牢固
Xinda Securities· 2025-03-31 10:26
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The expansion pace of the HNB (Heated Not Burned) market in the US and UK is becoming clearer, with the company positioned as a core supplier benefiting from high growth rates [4] - The HNB industry has a long supply chain with few companies capable of integrated design and R&D, leading to high Know-How barriers and increasing patent restrictions [1][2] - The report anticipates significant growth in HNB product sales, particularly in the US market, with projections indicating a potential increase in HNB penetration to 20% by 2028 [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized for its strong strategic positioning and substantial profitability in its other business segments, leading in R&D investment [2] Market Expansion - The report highlights the urgency for British American Tobacco to enhance its HNB product offerings, particularly with the anticipated launch of GLO HILO in 2024 [3][4] - The US market is crucial for British American Tobacco, contributing 44% of revenue and 54% of adjusted operating profit [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 11,799 million, 12,011 million, 13,922 million, and 17,063 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 2%, 16%, and 23% [7] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 1,303 million, 1,411 million, 2,337 million, and 3,032 million, with corresponding growth rates of -21%, 8%, 66%, and 30% [7][10] - The report projects EPS (Earnings Per Share) to increase from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.49 in 2027 [7][10]
思摩尔国际(06969):自有品牌增长亮眼,HNB成长可期
Huachuang Securities· 2025-03-31 03:43
事项: 证 券 研 究 报 告 思摩尔国际(06969.HK)2024 年报点评 强推(维持) 自有品牌增长亮眼,HNB 成长可期 公司公布 2024 年业绩公告。2024 年公司实现收入 117.99 亿元,同比+5.6%; 归母净利润为 13.03 亿元,同比-20.8%。 评论: [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,799 | 12,944 | 14,876 | 16,832 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.6% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 13.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,303 | 1,514 | 2,029 | 2,455 | | 同比增速(%) | -20.8% | 16.2% | 34.0% | 21.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.40 | | 市盈率(倍) | 59.2 | 50.9 | 38.0 | 31.4 | | 市净率(倍) ...
思摩尔国际(06969):24H2营收增速转正,开拓HNB第二增长曲线
Guotou Securities· 2025-03-27 01:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 16.59, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 11.799 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.303 billion, a decrease of 20.80% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its HNB (Heated Not Burned) product line as a second growth curve, with positive trial results for the new product glo Hilo [4][10]. - The company has increased its R&D investment to CNY 1.572 billion in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 41.30%, indicating a commitment to diversifying into nebulization technology and medical applications [4]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company's self-owned brand revenue grew by 34.00% to CNY 2.475 billion, accounting for 21.00% of total revenue [2]. - The revenue from enterprise clients was CNY 9.324 billion, a slight decrease of 0.30%, but showed a recovery trend with a 9.70% increase in H2 2024 [3]. - The company achieved revenue of CNY 6.762 billion in H2 2024, reflecting an 11.22% year-on-year increase [1]. Market Performance - The company experienced a strong recovery in the European and American markets, with revenues of CNY 4.24 billion and CNY 20.24 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 14.00% and 37.20% [2]. - In H2 2024, the revenue from the U.S. and European markets was CNY 2.27 billion and CNY 10.95 billion, with growth rates of 8.83% and 11.61% respectively [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 37.39%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [9]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 2024 was 11.04%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, with H2 2024 adjusted net profit margin at 9.17%, a decline of 6.18 percentage points [9]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 12.823 billion, CNY 14.475 billion, and CNY 16.878 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.68%, 12.88%, and 16.60% respectively [10]. - Net profit projections for the same period are CNY 1.476 billion, CNY 1.809 billion, and CNY 2.242 billion, with growth rates of 13.31%, 22.49%, and 23.94% respectively [10].
思摩尔国际(06969):化代工改善、自主品牌高增,HNB打造第二增长曲线
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-20 14:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 11.8 billion in 2024, representing a slight increase of 5.3%, while net profit decreased by 20.8% to HKD 1.3 billion. The second half of 2024 showed improved performance with revenue of HKD 6.76 billion, up 11.2%, and net profit of HKD 620 million, down 33.2% [1][2] - The company's proprietary brand business, including Vaporesso and MOYAL, saw significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 2.48 billion, a 34.0% increase, and its revenue share rising from 16.5% to 21.0% [1] - The company is focusing on developing a heating not burning (HNB) product line, which is expected to become a second growth curve, with positive consumer feedback from its recent launch in Serbia [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 11.8 billion, a 5.3% increase, and a net profit of HKD 1.3 billion, a decrease of 20.8%. The second half of 2024 showed a revenue increase of 11.2% to HKD 6.76 billion, while net profit decreased by 33.2% to HKD 620 million [1][2] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.05 per share, with an annual dividend yield of 40.2% [1] Business Segments - The ODM business saw a slight decline in revenue to HKD 9.32 billion, with a first half decrease of 12.3% and a second half increase of 10.7%. The European market contributed HKD 5.1 billion, while the US market generated HKD 3.99 billion [2] - The proprietary brand segment showed strong growth, particularly in Europe and other markets, with revenue of HKD 2.02 billion, a 37.2% increase, and in the US, revenue reached HKD 420 million, a 14.0% increase [1] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the HNB product line, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025. The focus on creating a comprehensive vaporization technology platform is anticipated to drive long-term growth [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of HKD 1.52 billion, HKD 2.00 billion, and HKD 2.52 billion, reflecting growth rates of 16.3%, 32.0%, and 26.0% respectively [3][4]
思摩尔国际(06969):2024A点评:看好HNB潜力,雾化烟、医疗雾化等趋势向好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-03-20 12:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.799 billion and a net profit of 1.303 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +5% and -21% respectively. In the second half of 2024, revenue and net profit were 6.761 billion and 620 million, showing a year-on-year increase of +11% and a decrease of -33% respectively [2][4]. - The core business of the company is recovering growth, with the HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment showing potential as a future growth driver. The company has received positive feedback from consumers and British American Tobacco in Serbia [6][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix with new launches and enhancing its market share in the open product segment through its brand VAPORESSO [6][4]. Revenue Summary - The company's revenue from the TOB (Business to Business) segment in the second half of 2024 increased by 11%, with contributions from various regions: +5% from the US, +17% from mainland China, and +14% from Europe and other regions. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in disposable products but growth in the HNB and APV (Advanced Personal Vaporizer) segments [6][4]. - The TOC (Business to Consumer) segment also saw a revenue increase of 13% in the second half of 2024, supported by the establishment of localized marketing teams and online store management systems [6][4]. Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 37.0% in the second half of 2024, primarily due to changes in product sales structure. The net profit dropped by 33%, influenced by increased sales and R&D expenses [6][4]. - The company is investing heavily in marketing and R&D, particularly in the fields of medical vaporization and heated not burned products, which is expected to impact profitability in the short term but may yield long-term benefits [6][4]. Long-term Outlook - The company aims for a market capitalization target of 300 to 500 billion, with significant growth potential in the HNB business and a positive trend in traditional business recovery. The company is committed to long-term development and increasing investment in HNB and medical vaporization R&D [6][4]. - The company has launched the Glo Hilo product in collaboration with British American Tobacco, which has shown promising feedback in terms of heating time, taste, and design, indicating a competitive edge against existing products like IQOS [6][4]. - The company is also progressing in the clinical development of drug-device combination products for respiratory diseases, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the future [6][4].
思摩尔国际(06969):2024年报点评报告:雾化业务迎来改善转折点,看好HNB业务后续弹性
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-20 12:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a turning point in the company's atomization business and expresses optimism about the future of its HNB (Heated Not Burned) business [1]. - The company reported a total revenue of 11.8 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. However, net profit decreased by 20.8% to 1.3 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 11.0% [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 11.8 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 37.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. The net profit was 1.3 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 20.8% year-on-year [4][6][7]. - The company declared a final dividend of 0.05 HKD per share as of December 31, 2024 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The self-owned brand business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 2.48 billion RMB, up 34.0% year-on-year. Notably, revenue from Europe and other regions for electronic atomization products was 2.02 billion RMB, up 37.2% [6]. - Revenue from enterprise client business was 9.32 billion RMB, slightly down by 0.3%. The report anticipates that increased regulatory enforcement in the U.S. will enhance market share for compliant products [6]. Research and Development - The company maintained a high R&D expenditure, amounting to 1.57 billion RMB, which is 13.3% of total revenue. This includes 1.03 billion RMB for electronic nicotine delivery systems [6][7]. - Sales and distribution expenses rose significantly by 74.7% to 920 million RMB, attributed to increased marketing efforts for self-owned brands globally [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.13 billion RMB in 2025, 15.27 billion RMB in 2026, and 17.54 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 11%, 16%, and 15% respectively [9][10]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.63 billion RMB, 2.15 billion RMB, and 2.64 billion RMB, with growth rates of 25%, 32%, and 23% respectively [9][10].
思摩尔国际(06969):2024年报点评:2024Q4业绩符合预期,HNB商业化提速
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with revenue of HKD 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of HKD 1.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21% [9] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a 1.3 percentage point drop in gross margin due to changes in product mix and a 3.1 percentage point increase in sales expense ratio due to increased marketing investments in proprietary brands [9] - The company is focusing on long-term strategies, continuous R&D investments, and strengthening its technological moat while binding with international leading clients [9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for the company from 2021 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: HKD 13,755 million (2021), HKD 12,157 million (2022), HKD 11,177 million (2023), HKD 11,799 million (2024), projected HKD 12,423.9 million (2025E), HKD 14,311 million (2026E), HKD 16,699 million (2027E) [7] - Net Profit: HKD 5,287 million (2021), HKD 2,510 million (2022), HKD 1,645 million (2023), HKD 1,303 million (2024), projected HKD 1,300 million (2025E), HKD 1,653 million (2026E), HKD 2,178 million (2027E) [7] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 58.0 (2024E), 46.0 (2025E), and 34.7 (2026E) [7] Business Segments - The company's OEM business showed positive growth in H2 2024, with revenue increasing by 11% year-on-year, particularly in the U.S. market, which saw a 5% increase [9] - The proprietary brand segment continued to grow, with an 11% year-on-year increase in revenue in H2 2024, driven by product line expansion and enhanced brand recognition in the U.S. and U.K. markets [9]
思摩尔国际:传统业务受益合规市场发展,HNB+雾化美容业务开辟新增长曲线!-20250320
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-03-20 00:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at a significant upside potential [4][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion HKD for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while net profit decreased by 20.8% to 1.303 billion HKD [1]. - The company maintains its position as a global leader in the manufacturing of vaporization devices, with a notable increase in its proprietary brand business [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the tightening regulations in the industry, leading to increased concentration within the supply chain [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue from enterprise customer business reached 9.324 billion HKD, accounting for 79.0% of total revenue, with a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year. However, the second half of 2024 saw a recovery with a revenue of 5.357 billion HKD, up by 9.7% [7]. - The company’s proprietary brand business generated 2.475 billion HKD, representing 21.0% of total revenue and a growth of 34% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 37.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product mix [7]. Market Position and Growth - The company holds a market share of approximately 13.1% in the electronic vaporization device sector, maintaining its status as the largest manufacturer globally [7]. - The company’s proprietary brand "VAPORESSO" has seen an increase in market share within the open product market, contributing to overall growth [7]. Research and Development - R&D expenditure for 2024 was 1.572 billion HKD, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, representing 13.3% of total revenue. This investment is focused on vaporization medical products and heated non-combustible products [7].