Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for Smoore International (06969) with a target price of HKD 21.90, highlighting the company's leading position in the global electronic vaporization market and potential for growth in both e-cigarette and HNB (Heated Not Burned) businesses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of CNY 10.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while net profit was CNY 809 million, a decrease of 23.8%. Adjusted net profit was CNY 1.182 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - For Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of CNY 4.197 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, and net profit of CNY 317 million, down 16.4%. Adjusted net profit for the quarter was CNY 444 million, up 4.0% year-on-year [1] Group 2: HNB Product Growth - The market feedback for HNB products is positive, with significant increases in product shipments contributing to impressive revenue growth. The Glo Hilo product has received praise for its stylish design and flavor delivery compared to IQOS [2] - As Glo Hilo expands in the European market, the product penetration rate is expected to accelerate [2] Group 3: E-Cigarette Business and Regulatory Environment - The company benefits from stricter regulations on non-compliant products globally, with a recent poll indicating that 80% of U.S. voters support increased enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes, which may help the company's business recovery [3] - The company's own brand performance remains strong due to the launch of flagship new products and enhanced localized operations [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 was approximately 10.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the product mix with a higher proportion of lower-margin HNB products in early sales [4] - The company has seen steady improvement in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, which is expected to enhance profit flexibility in the future [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for Smoore International (06969) with a target price of HKD 21.90, highlighting the company's leading position in the global electronic vaporization market and potential for growth in both e-cigarette and HNB (Heated Not Burned) segments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 10.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while net profit was CNY 809 million, a decrease of 23.8%. Adjusted net profit stood at CNY 1.18 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - For Q3 alone, revenue reached CNY 4.197 billion, up 27.2% year-on-year, with net profit at CNY 317 million, down 16.4%. Adjusted net profit for the quarter was CNY 444 million, reflecting a 4.0% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: HNB Product Growth - The market feedback for HNB products has been positive, with significant increases in product shipments contributing to impressive revenue growth. The Glo Hilo product has received favorable comparisons to IQOS, particularly for its design and flavor delivery [2] - As Glo Hilo expands in the European market, the product penetration rate is expected to accelerate [2] Group 3: Vaporization Business and Regulatory Environment - The vaporization business is benefiting from stricter regulations on non-compliant products globally, with a recent survey indicating that 80% of U.S. voters support enhanced enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes, which may help the company's business recovery [3] - The company's own brand performance has shown steady growth, aided by the launch of flagship products and enhanced local operations [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was approximately 10.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the product mix with a higher proportion of lower-margin HNB devices in early sales [4] - The company has seen steady improvements in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, which are expected to enhance profit flexibility in the future [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - PMI reported a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $30.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and gross profit of $20.5 billion, up 12.1% [1] - Smoore achieved record quarterly revenue of $4.197 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 27.2% year-on-year growth [3] - The strong growth in PMI's reduced-risk products, particularly Nicotine Pouches, is a key driver of performance, with shipments increasing by 25.8% year-on-year [2] - Smoore's HNB (Heated Not Burned) business has seen significant growth, supported by successful product launches in international markets [4] Summary by Sections PMI Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, PMI's revenue was $30.3 billion, with a gross profit of $20.5 billion, and an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24, reflecting a 17.3% increase [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was $10.8 billion, with an operating profit of $4.3 billion, showing a 16.7% increase [1] PMI Product Performance - PMI shipped 940 million cans of oral tobacco products in the first three quarters, a 25.8% increase, with Q3 shipments at 313 million cans, up 20.2% [2] - Nicotine Pouches shipments reached 663 million cans in the first three quarters, a 44.0% increase [2] Smoore Financial Performance - Smoore's revenue for the first three quarters was $10.21 billion, a 21.8% increase, with adjusted profit at $1.182 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% [3] - The third quarter revenue of Smoore was a record $4.197 billion, with adjusted profit of $444 million, reflecting a 4.0% year-on-year growth [3] Smoore Product Performance - Smoore's HNB and e-cigarette businesses showed healthy growth, with strategic support for clients leading to increased product launches and compliance with regulations [4] - The introduction of new products and localized marketing efforts have contributed to the growth of Smoore's proprietary brand business [4] Regulatory Environment - Customs authorities in Ningbo and Huangpu seized 265,140 boxes of infringing "ZYN" products, which is expected to strengthen the legitimate supply chain and benefit the compliant oral tobacco industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company's third-quarter performance confirms the upward trend in industry prosperity, with significant achievements in technology research and development [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 1.03 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.54 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the heated non-combustible industry chain, benefiting from long-term R&D investments and a broad growth space [1] - The target price for 2025 is set at 19.87 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 110.0X [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [1] - Excluding equity incentive expenses, net profit increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 3: Business Growth - The OEM and proprietary brand revenues both experienced growth, with significant increases in HNB and vaping businesses [2] - The company supports strategic customers in global market expansion, leading to a substantial increase in product shipments for HNB [2] - The company has successfully launched new compliant electronic vaping products in response to increased regulatory scrutiny in major global markets [2] Group 4: Industry Trends - The upward trend in industry prosperity is clear, with traditional vaping businesses expected to benefit from regulatory changes in the US and Europe [2] - The new Glo Hilo product has received positive feedback, with plans for nationwide promotion in Japan by September 2025 and expansion into more core markets in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company is developing multiple technology platforms to address various user pain points, accelerating commercialization efforts in collaboration with partners [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue reached a historical high of 4.197 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 317 million RMB, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 5.7% quarter-on-quarter. Excluding equity incentive expenses, the net profit increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in various business segments, including OEM and proprietary brands, with significant growth in HNB (Heated Not Burned) and vaping products. The company is actively supporting strategic customers in global market expansion, leading to a substantial increase in product shipments [9][10]. - The industry is experiencing an upward trend, with traditional vaping businesses expected to benefit from regulatory changes in Europe and the U.S. The new Glo Hilo product has received positive feedback, and the company is assisting clients in expanding into key markets [9][10]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates total revenue projections for 2023 to 2027, with expected revenues of 11.168 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 19.137 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [3][10]. - The gross profit is projected to grow from 4.334 billion RMB in 2023 to 7.845 billion RMB in 2027, while net profit is expected to recover from 1.645 billion RMB in 2023 to 2.541 billion RMB in 2027 [3][10]. - The report also provides a valuation based on a PE ratio of 110.0X for 2025, resulting in a target price of 19.87 HKD, equivalent to approximately 18.28 RMB [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that Smoore International (06969) has shown an upward trend in industry prosperity in Q3, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for the company, with expected net profits of 1.03 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.54 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%; excluding stock incentive expenses, net profit increased by 4.0% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Business Growth - The OEM and proprietary brand revenues both experienced growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with significant increases in HNB and vaping businesses [2] - In the HNB segment, the company supported strategic customers in global market expansion, resulting in a substantial increase in product shipments [2] - In the vaping segment, the company assisted more clients in launching new compliant electronic vaping products due to increased regulatory scrutiny in major global markets [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The traditional vaping business is expected to benefit from changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential increase in market share under compliant operations [3] - The new Glo Hilo product in the HNB segment has received positive feedback, with the company aiding clients in nationwide product promotion in Japan by September 2025 and plans to expand into more core markets in the second half of 2025 [3] - The company has developed multiple technology platforms to address various user pain points, and collaborative efforts to accelerate commercialization are ongoing, indicating a clear growth path for the business [3]

Core Viewpoint - British American Tobacco (BAT) has launched a new high-end heated product line, glo Hilo, in Japan, with strong sales momentum observed since its pilot launch in June 2025, indicating potential for accelerated revenue growth in heated tobacco products [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The glo Hilo product line, including glo Hilo, glo Hilo Plus, and compatible consumables, was initially tested in Miyagi Prefecture and has been successfully rolled out nationwide in Japan as of September 1, 2025 [1] - The company aims to position glo Hilo as a "top-tier platform for heated tobacco," targeting to replace some IQOS users and expand its market share in Europe, particularly in Poland, Italy, and Eastern Europe [1][3] - A flagship store for glo products will open in Ginza, Tokyo, on October 18, 2025, further promoting the product line across Japan [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Financial Projections - Japan is identified as the largest single market for heated non-combustible (HNB) products, and the positive sales outlook for glo Hilo is expected to influence global market dynamics [2] - BAT has set a long-term goal to reach 50 million adult consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and to transition to a smoke-free business model by 2035, with Poland being a critical market for this expansion [2] - The company anticipates that the global promotion of Hilo will contribute to a 3%-5% increase in group revenue by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and packaging industries, while indicating a stable recovery in the paper industry and light consumer goods [3][4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of stabilization in domestic demand, with a year-on-year decrease in transaction area narrowing to -22.46% as of October 17. The external sales are boosted by strong performances on platforms like Amazon, with notable growth in GMV for several companies [4][9]. - In the new tobacco sector, there is a strong push for regulatory enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S., which may benefit established brands. The HNB product line is expanding globally, with significant market entry planned in Italy [10][19]. - The paper and packaging industries are experiencing price adjustments due to supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for price increases in corrugated and boxboard paper. The metal packaging sector is also anticipated to see improvements in profitability due to upcoming price hikes [11][12]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are stabilizing, with transaction areas showing a reduced decline. External sales are recovering, particularly in the U.S. market, aided by a favorable exchange rate and potential interest rate cuts [4][9]. - Key companies to watch include 欧派家居, 索菲亚, and 顾家家居, which are expected to have high earnings growth and dividend support [4][9]. New Tobacco - Regulatory support for legal brands is strengthening in the U.S., with 80% of voters favoring stricter enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes. The HNB product line is set to expand in major markets [10][19]. - Recommended companies include 思摩尔国际 and 中烟香港, which are positioned well for growth [10]. Paper and Packaging - Prices for various paper products are expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand. The metal packaging sector is also poised for profitability improvements with anticipated price hikes [11][12]. - Key players include 裕同科技 and 太阳纸业, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [11]. Light Consumer Goods and Trendy Toys - The light consumer goods sector is gearing up for a busy Q4 with the Double Eleven shopping festival, focusing on brand penetration and product innovation [15][16]. - The trendy toy market is seeing strong performance from leading brands, with new product launches and collaborations enhancing market presence [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International, projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for Smoore International: CNY 14.175 billion in 2025, CNY 16.689 billion in 2026, and CNY 19.495 billion in 2027, representing year-on-year growth of +20.14%, +17.73%, and +16.81% respectively [1] - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders: CNY 1.08 billion in 2025, CNY 1.934 billion in 2026, and CNY 2.652 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth of +17.15%, +79.13%, and +37.10% respectively [1] Market Dynamics - British American Tobacco is increasing resources and marketing efforts for Glo Hilo, with positive sales feedback in Japan and early deployment in several European countries, indicating potential for future growth [1] - The vaping market is expected to recover due to regulatory pressures on illicit tobacco, which bodes well for core supplier Smoore International [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zheshang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International (06969), projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for Smoore International: - 2025: 14.175 billion - 2026: 16.689 billion - 2027: 19.495 billion - Year-on-year growth: +20.14%, +17.73%, +16.81% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders: - 2025: 1.08 billion - 2026: 1.934 billion - 2027: 2.652 billion - Year-on-year growth: +17.15%, +79.13%, +37.10% [1] Market Dynamics - British American Tobacco is increasing resources and marketing efforts for Glo Hilo, with positive sales feedback in Japan and early deployment in some European countries [1] - The regulatory crackdown on illegal vaping products is expected to lead to a recovery in the vaping market, which bodes well for core supplier Smoore International [1]