Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in HNB (Heated Not Burned) products in 2025, with significant contributions anticipated in the second half of the year. The potential of the aerosol medical business is also highlighted as a key component of the company's 2030 goals [11] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 117.99 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while net profit is expected to decline by 20.8% to 13.03 billion CNY [1][11] - The company is focusing on expanding its HNB and aerosol medical product lines, with R&D investments showing significant increases in these areas [3][11] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 117.99 billion CNY, with a net profit of 13.03 billion CNY, resulting in a net profit margin of 11.05% [1] - The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 34.63 billion CNY, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year, but a decline in profit by 42% due to high expenses [1] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 128.92 billion CNY, 151.12 billion CNY, and 173.48 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.19 billion CNY, 21.21 billion CNY, and 26.59 billion CNY [11][12] Market Potential - The global market for electronic aerosol is expected to reach 91.42 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 7.4% from 2024 to 2029 [4] - The heated not burned market is projected to reach 66.86 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of about 10.1% during the same period [4] - The aerosol medical market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the global market for pulmonary drugs and delivery devices expected to reach 93.28 billion USD by 2030 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, while net profit decreased by 20.8% to 1.3 billion yuan. The Q4 revenue was 3.48 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 43.2% to 240 million yuan [1]. - The company's ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) and OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) revenues showed contrasting trends, with ODM revenue declining slightly by 0.3% to 9.32 billion yuan, while OBM revenue increased by 34.0% to 2.48 billion yuan. In H2, ODM and OBM revenues grew by 9.7% and 13.4% respectively [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in its ODM business, particularly in the Chinese market, where revenue increased by 49.6% in H2. However, the European market is facing challenges due to regulations on disposable products [1][2]. - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 36.9%, attributed to changes in product mix and rising labor costs. R&D expenses reached 1.57 billion yuan, representing 13.3% of revenue, as the company increased investment in atomization medical and HNB (Heated Not Burned) products [2]. - The HNB market is expected to expand, with potential growth driven by new product launches and market entry strategies. The company is optimistic about its hilo product line following successful trials in Serbia [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% [1]. - Q4 revenue was 3.48 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 43.2% to 240 million yuan [1]. Business Analysis - ODM revenue decreased by 0.3% to 9.32 billion yuan, while OBM revenue increased by 34.0% to 2.48 billion yuan [1]. - The Chinese market showed strong growth in ODM, with H2 revenue up 49.6% [1]. - The gross margin decreased to 36.9% due to product mix changes and increased costs [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.24, 0.40, and 0.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 52, 32, and 22 [3].

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion and a net profit of 1.3 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in revenue but a decrease of 20.8% in net profit [1] - The overall profit met expectations, with a recovery trend observed in ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business revenue in the second half of the year [1] ODM Business Insights - The ODM business is projected to decline by 0.3% for the entire year 2024, but is expected to grow by 9.7% year-on-year in the second half [1] - Recovery in the ODM business is noted across various regions, with the United States and Europe showing growth rates of 5.1% and 14.2% respectively in the second half [1] - The Chinese market for ODM is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, reaching 240 million [1] - The overall assessment aligns with previous expectations regarding the end of the global downturn for the company's aerosol ODM business [1] OBM Business Performance - The OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) business is projected to generate 2.48 billion in revenue for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a 13.4% increase in the second half [1] R&D Investment - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with a projected R&D expenditure of 1.57 billion for 2024, marking a 6% year-on-year increase, primarily focused on HNB (Heated Not Burned) and medical aerosol products [2] Future Outlook - 2025 is anticipated to be a turning point for the company's performance, with long-term growth expected [2] - Two core growth drivers are emphasized: 1. **Aerosol Products**: The company is closely tied to leading tobacco groups and is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of the compliant market in the U.S., where over 70% of aerosol sales are currently from the illegal market, as well as from category shifts in Europe [2] 2. **HNB Products**: The glo hilo product line is considered to have a competitive edge, with strong potential for market share growth as major clients express positive sentiments [2] Key Catalysts to Monitor - The market sales performance and consumer feedback for the gloHilo product line in key countries (excluding Serbia) after its launch in 2025 [2] - The regulatory environment for aerosol electronic cigarettes in the U.S. and Europe, and the pace of expansion in the compliant aerosol market [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, revenue was RMB 13.4 billion, up 5.3% year on year, with a better growth rate in the second half of the year compared to the first half [32] - Gross margin decreased to 37.4% from 38.7% in 2023, attributed to lower gross margin in ODM yield growth [33] - Profit before tax was RMB 1.655 billion, down 14.5%, while after-tax profit decreased by 4.8% [36] - Comprehensive income for the year was RMB 1.416 billion, with earnings per share at RMB 21.42 and a final dividend of RMB 5, resulting in a payout ratio of 40.2% [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Self-branded business revenue was RMB 2.48 billion, increasing its share of total revenue from 16.5% in 2023 to 21% in 2024 [39] - ODM business revenue was RMB 9.32 billion, accounting for 70% of total revenue, with a slight decline of 0.3% year on year [40] - The self-branded business saw a 30% growth in the first half of the year but only 13.3% in the second half due to a higher base [41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S. market, revenue was RMB 402 million, with significant contributions from Europe and other overseas markets [42] - The China market generated RMB 30 million in revenue, primarily from beauty atomization products launched in the first half of the year [43] - ODM business in Europe saw a slight increase of 0.3%, while the U.S. market experienced a small decline of 2.4% due to cash flow pressures faced by some customers [46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its position in the atomization industry, focusing on e-cigarettes, H&B, beauty, inhalation therapy, and special purpose atomization [20][22] - The management emphasizes the importance of R&D and technology as the main engine for development, with a commitment to innovation and long-term operation [24][25] - The company is optimistic about the future, expecting growth in various segments, particularly in H&B and beauty optimization products [20][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about growth amidst stability in the e-cigarette market, with expectations for a turning point in 2025 [18][21] - The company is focused on enhancing management quality and productivity to prepare for future high-speed growth [30] - The management highlighted the importance of compliance and adapting to regulatory changes in key markets like the U.S. and Europe [67][116] Other Important Information - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with expenses increasing from RMB 1.48 billion to RMB 1.57 billion in 2024 [35] - The beauty atomization product, Moyo, launched in 2024, has received positive feedback and is expected to perform better in 2025 [75] - The company is exploring new markets and product categories, including inhalation therapy and beauty atomization, to diversify its offerings [54][75] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the considerations behind the stock incentive plan linked to market cap? - The management emphasized the alignment of the incentive plan with shareholder interests and the confidence in achieving the set market cap goals [81][83] Question: How is customer feedback on new HMB products and their global launch progress? - The management reported positive feedback from trial sales, highlighting improvements in convenience and flavor, with plans for a proactive global rollout [92][95][96] Question: How is the company adapting to changes in consumer behavior and regulations in Europe? - The management noted a shift towards pod-based and open system products, with a focus on compliance and product innovation to meet market demands [99][103] Question: What is the expected timeline for H&B product development and market launch? - The management indicated that the R&D process for H&B products took ten years, and they are now focused on empowering customers to expedite market entry [106][108] Question: What is the impact of new regulations on product pricing and profits in Europe? - The management expressed optimism about stable growth in Europe, driven by compliance and product iteration, which is expected to enhance revenue and profits [116]

思摩尔国际2024年研发开支持续加码 创新成果显著 收益同比增长5.31%至117.99亿元 公告称，加热不燃烧业务是该集团重要的第二条业务增长曲线，2025年是该业务的关键落地阶段。 2025年，该集团支持客户推出的加热不燃烧产品有望在全球更多市场推出。该集团将密切关注用户反 馈，支持客户完成产品优化与迭代。新产品有望自2025年开始逐步为集团贡献更多收入增长机会。同 时，集团在加热不燃烧领域将继续保持研发投入，储备更多的技术和产品解决方案，并积极寻求与其他 行业领先者合作，为第二条增长曲线的落地打下坚实基础。 思摩尔国际(06969)公布2024年业绩，实现收益约117.99亿元，同比增长5.31%;研发开支约15.72亿 元，同比增长约6%;毛利约44.12亿元，同比增长1.64%;净利约13.03亿元，每股基本盈利21.42分，拟派 末期股息每股5港仙。 面向企业客户业务收入约93.24亿元，虽较去年下降约0.3%，但下半年呈现良好恢复趋势，下半年 收入约53.57亿元，较去年增长约9.7%。不同地区业务表现各异，美国市场受FDA监管政策影响，业务 收入下半年实现同比增长;欧洲及其他市场，在监管加强的 ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 11,798,662 thousand, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3%[6] - The gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,411,969 thousand, with a gross margin of 37.4%[4] - The company’s net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 1,303,255 thousand, a decrease from RMB 1,645,090 thousand in the previous year[4] - The comprehensive income for the year was approximately RMB 1,416,913 thousand, a decrease of about 9.5% from RMB 1,566,470 thousand in 2023, primarily due to increased sales and R&D expenses[49] - The group reported a segment profit of RMB 1,640,180 thousand for 2024, down from RMB 1,949,597 thousand in 2023, reflecting a decrease of about 15.9%[113] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 21.42, down from RMB 27.01 in 2023[95] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the proprietary brand business is approximately RMB 2,475,033 thousand, a year-on-year increase of about 34.0%, accounting for about 21.0% of total revenue[16] - Revenue from the enterprise customer business is approximately RMB 9,323,629 thousand, a slight decline of about 0.3%, accounting for about 79.0% of total revenue[16] - In the U.S. market, revenue from enterprise customers is approximately RMB 3,988,170 thousand, a decline of about 2.4%, accounting for about 33.8% of total revenue[21] - Revenue from the Chinese market was approximately RMB 238,751 thousand, representing a year-on-year growth of about 25.1%[24] - The group’s revenue from major customer A was RMB 4,732,568 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 4,582,362 thousand in 2023, contributing over 10% to total revenue[116] Market Position and Share - The company maintained a market share of approximately 13.1% in the global electronic vaporization equipment market for 2024, down from 13.7% in 2023[11] - The company’s proprietary brand "VAPORESSO" has further increased its market share in the open product segment, becoming a leading brand in major global markets[17] - The proprietary brand business in the U.S. market achieved revenue of approximately RMB 424,289 thousand, a year-on-year increase of about 14.0%[17] Research and Development - Research and development expenditure for the review period was approximately RMB 1,572,313 thousand, an increase of about 6.0% from the previous year, accounting for approximately 13.3% of revenue[25] - The company achieved significant breakthroughs in research and development for its heating-not-burning and medical vaporization businesses during the review period[8] - The company plans to enhance its R&D focus on heated tobacco products and aerosol medical products as key directions for 2025[44] Operational Efficiency - The company achieved significant progress in production operations, enhancing manufacturing competitiveness through collaboration across teams and optimizing production processes[35] - The group aims to enhance manufacturing competitiveness and optimize production processes, with a focus on resource integration and cost reduction[47] Expenses and Costs - Distribution and selling expenses increased by approximately 74.7% to about RMB 919,552 thousand, representing about 7.8% of revenue, driven by increased marketing investments in global operations and new product launches in the Chinese market[60] - Administrative expenses rose by approximately 5.4% to about RMB 914,109 thousand, maintaining a stable percentage of about 7.7% of revenue[63] - R&D expenses grew by approximately 6.0% to about RMB 1,572,313 thousand, accounting for about 13.3% of revenue, with significant investments in the fields of atomization medical and heated non-combustible products[66] Future Outlook - The global electronic vaporization product market is projected to reach approximately $91.42 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7.4% from 2024 to 2029[37] - The global heated tobacco market is expected to reach around $66.86 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 10.1% from 2024 to 2029[39] - The company is committed to building a leading global vapor technology platform, focusing on electronic vaporization, heated non-combustible products, and medical vaporization solutions[36] Corporate Governance - The company maintained a governance structure that complies with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's corporate governance code, with a board comprising eight directors, including three independent non-executive directors[143] - The board of directors is committed to ensuring transparency and accountability to all shareholders, with regular reviews of governance effectiveness[145] Shareholder Communication - The company has established a shareholder communication policy to ensure effective communication with shareholders[152] - The company encourages shareholders to express their opinions and suggestions during the annual general meeting[150]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights the production launch of Smoore's high-end medical device project, which is expected to generate revenue of 1 billion yuan within three years [4] - The French ban on disposable e-cigarettes officially took effect on February 25, 2025, following legislative approval [5] - China's total e-cigarette export value for 2024 reached approximately 10.96 billion USD, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 1.11% [6] Summary by Sections Smoore's Medical Device Project - Smoore's skincare brand MOYAL has obtained a Class II medical device certificate and launched a non-invasive aerosol high-end medical device project, focusing on aerosol beauty equipment [4] - The project aims to achieve production in the first half of the year and expects to generate 1 billion yuan in revenue within three years [4] E-Cigarette Market Developments - The French government has implemented a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, making it the second EU country to do so after Belgium [5] - The e-cigarette export data for 2024 indicates a total export value of 10.96 billion USD, with the U.S. being the largest market, accounting for one-third of the exports [6] Company Performance - Smoore reported a revenue of 8.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, down 11.9% [7] - The company is positioned as a global leader in aerosol technology solutions, with increasing competitive advantages amid tightening regulations [7]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 思摩尔国际(6969.HK) | | --- | | 投资评级 无评级 | | 上次评级 无评级 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 相关研究 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 砥砺前行，长期主义铸造价值成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 12 日 [Table_S 事件：近日公司旗下科技护肤品牌 ummary] MOYAL 岚至取得二类医疗器械证书，并 于 2 月 26 日在广西贺州高新区产业开发区举行"无创雾化高端医疗器械项 目投产仪式"，公司副总裁、美容事业部总裁吴俊兰表示新工厂将全面承接 MOYAL 岚至 TPS 技术平台的医疗器械生产与制造。公司预计 25 年产值有 望达 1.5 亿元，3 年 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 思摩尔国际(6969.HK) | | --- | | 投资评级 无评级 | | 上次评级 无评级 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 相关研究 IQOS 有望发力美国地区，美国或将成为核心 HNB 市场。2024 年 IQOS 已 解决专利纠纷、重返美国，目前仍处于消费者教育阶段，我们预计新品 ILUMA 在 25H2 通过 PMTA 后，菲莫将正式发力美国市场。2023 年美国总 烟民人数为 4340 万人（卷烟+雾化），根据我们测算，美国消费能力强、新 型烟草教育程度高，假设美国 2030 年 HNB 渗透率达到 30%（HNB 烟民/ 卷烟+雾化+HNB），每年烟弹消耗量有望增长至 800-900 亿支（2023 年全 球烟弹消耗量为 1600 亿支），或将成为比肩日本的核心市场。 英美新品放量可期，全球化进展加速。公司 24 年底已在塞尔维亚推出全新 产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has recently achieved a Class II medical device certification for its skincare brand MOYAL, with expectations of generating a revenue of 150 million yuan in 2025 and surpassing 1 billion yuan in revenue within three years [1] - The shift towards new tobacco products is compelling leading companies to accelerate their transformation, with a projected 8.4% decline in traditional cigarette sales in the U.S. in 2024 [2] - The U.S. is expected to become a core market for heated non-combustible tobacco (HNB) products, with an estimated annual consumption of 800-900 billion pods by 2030 [3] - The company is positioned as a key supplier in the compliant market, with expectations of revenue recovery in its disposable products despite regulatory pressures [4] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 1.342 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.551 billion yuan by 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 49.8X and 30.5X respectively [5] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The company launched a new factory for MOYAL's medical device production, aiming for significant revenue growth in the coming years [1] Market Trends - The new tobacco landscape is reshaping consumer habits, leading to a decline in traditional cigarette sales and an increased focus on HNB product development [2][3] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue and profitability, with projected net profits showing a significant increase from 1.342 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.551 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Operational Insights - The company is adapting to regulatory changes and market demands, positioning itself as a core supplier in the compliant market while navigating challenges in disposable product revenues [4]