Core Insights - On September 25, China Everbright Holdings made its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list for the first time in a month [1] - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 563.55 billion, accounting for 36.05% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of HKD 72.15 billion [1] - Alibaba-W led the trading volume with HKD 182.84 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W and SMIC with HKD 114.02 billion and HKD 77.63 billion respectively [1] Trading Activity Summary - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month include Alibaba-W and Tencent Holdings, each appearing 23 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [1] - China Everbright Holdings had a trading volume of HKD 14.37 billion on the day, with a net selling amount of HKD 0.71 billion, and its stock price increased by 25.89% [1] Active Stocks List - The active stocks on September 25 included: - Tencent Holdings: Trading amount HKD 48.30 billion, net buying HKD 11.11 billion, closing price HKD 650.000, daily change +0.23% [1] - SMIC: Trading amount HKD 77.63 billion, net buying HKD 9.59 billion, closing price HKD 76.800, daily change +0.07% [1] - Xiaomi Group-W: Trading amount HKD 114.02 billion, net selling HKD 8.02 billion, closing price HKD 59.450, daily change +4.48% [1] - Alibaba-W: Trading amount HKD 182.84 billion, net buying HKD 46.32 billion, closing price HKD 172.000, daily change -1.15% [1] - China Everbright Holdings: Trading amount HKD 14.37 billion, net selling HKD 0.71 billion, closing price HKD 12.790, daily change +25.89% [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on September 25, with southbound capital transactions totaling HKD 156.31 billion, indicating a net inflow of HKD 11.046 billion [1][2]. Southbound Capital Transactions - Total southbound capital transactions amounted to HKD 1,563.10 million, with buy transactions at HKD 836.78 million and sell transactions at HKD 726.32 million, resulting in a net buy of HKD 110.46 million [1]. - The breakdown of transactions shows that the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a total transaction amount of HKD 577.51 million, with net buying of HKD 62.16 million, while the Shanghai Stock Connect had a total transaction amount of HKD 985.59 million, with net buying of HKD 48.30 million [1]. Active Stocks - Alibaba-W led the southbound capital transactions with a total transaction amount of HKD 182.84 million and a net buy of HKD 46.32 million, despite a closing price drop of 1.15% [1][2]. - Other notable stocks included Xiaomi Group-W with a total transaction amount of HKD 114.02 million and a net sell of HKD 8.02 million, and SMIC with a total transaction amount of HKD 77.63 million and a net buy of HKD 9.59 million [1][2]. Continuous Net Buying - Alibaba-W and SMIC were highlighted for their continuous net buying, with Alibaba-W experiencing 25 consecutive days of net buying totaling HKD 720.86 million, while SMIC had 5 consecutive days with a total net buy of HKD 25.60 million [2].

Core Insights - On September 25, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and SMIC (00981) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 11.969 billion, 7.178 billion, and 4.734 billion respectively [1] - The same companies also led in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect southbound trading, with trading amounts of 6.315 billion, 4.224 billion, and 3.029 billion respectively [1] Southbound Trading Highlights - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect)**: - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 11.969 billion, net buying of 2.469 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 7.178 billion, net selling of 0.287 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 4.734 billion, net buying of 0.666 billion [2] - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect)**: - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 6.315 billion, net buying of 2.163 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 4.224 billion, net selling of 0.515 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 3.029 billion, net buying of 0.293 billion [2]

地平线机器人研究十问 地平线机器人-W(09660) 证券研究报告 汽车 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.09.25 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-09-24 | | 收盘价(元) | 10.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 117.57 | | 每股净资产(元) | 0.82 | | 总股本(亿股) | 138.81 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -19% 18% 54% 91% 127% 164% 地平线机器人-W 恒生指数 分析师 郝艳辉 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080001 haoyh@ctsec.com 分析师 吴晓飞 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090003 wuxf01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 联系人 汪志洋 wangzy08@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《营收同比高增长，定点数创新高》 2025-09-02 2. 《收入同比高增长，市场份额持续提升》 2025-04-02 3. 《国内智驾芯片龙头，渗透率有望快速提 升 ...

Core Insights - The penetration rate of passenger cars equipped with combined driving assistance systems in China reached 62.6% from January to July 2025, an increase of 5.7 million units and 40 percentage points compared to the same period in 2021 [1] - The current market primarily features L2 level systems, which assist with basic driving tasks but do not provide full autonomous driving capabilities, leaving the driver responsible [1] - The development of intelligent driving in China is accelerating due to policy support, with significant regulations and standards being established to enhance safety and performance in the industry [1][2] Industry Developments - The introduction of national standards for L2 level driving assistance is expected to provide regulatory support and drive innovation within the intelligent driving industry, benefiting the entire supply chain [2] - Major automotive manufacturers are shifting from fully self-developed solutions to strategic collaborations with technology providers, enhancing the integration of AI capabilities and increasing the penetration of intelligent driving technologies [2] - Domestic suppliers of components such as lidar, cameras, and radar are strengthening their influence in the industry and moving towards integrated hardware and software solutions [2] Relevant Companies - Black Sesame Intelligence (02533) is positioned to benefit from the commercialization of L2+ technology and advancements in L3 and L4 scenarios, having launched high-performance intelligent driving chips [3] - Horizon Robotics (09660) has achieved significant production milestones with its HSD chip series and is establishing international partnerships, aiming to expand its intelligent driving solutions globally [3] - Suoteng Juchuang (02498) has successfully mass-produced high-line count lidar products, which are now featured in new intelligent SUV models [3] - Youjia Innovation (02431) has entered the unmanned logistics sector with its "Xiaozhu" brand, showcasing its commitment to advancing high-level autonomous driving commercialization [4]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that the fleet size and operational areas of autonomous taxis in China are continuously expanding, marking a new phase in the global autonomous taxi competition, which serves as a strong catalyst for China's advancement towards L4+ level autonomous driving [1] - The firm anticipates that by 2030, L4+ level autonomous taxis will account for 8% of the total fleet size of taxis or shared mobility in China [1] - In the current industry competition, leading hardware manufacturers with scalable product sales capabilities, such as Horizon Robotics (09660) and Hesai Technology (02525), are expected to benefit from accelerated configuration upgrades [1] - Autonomous taxi manufacturers, such as WeRide, are making strides into emerging international markets [1]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that the fleet size and operational areas of autonomous taxis in China are continuously expanding, marking a new phase in the global autonomous taxi competition, which serves as a strong catalyst for China's development towards L4+ level autonomous driving [1] - The firm anticipates that by 2030, L4+ level autonomous taxis will account for 8% of the total fleet size of taxis or shared mobility in China [1] - The competition in the industry is intensifying, with leading hardware manufacturers like Horizon Robotics (09660) and Hesai Technology (02525) expected to benefit from accelerated configuration upgrades due to their scalable product sales capabilities [1] - Autonomous taxi manufacturers, such as WeRide, are advancing into emerging international markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the launch of the Horizon SuperDrive (HSD) solution by the company marks a significant change in the high-end autonomous driving market, with the ET5 model expected to be released in November 2025 [1] - The company has achieved a production milestone of over 10 million units for its Journey series chips, with a target of reaching 10 million units for HSD production in the next 3-5 years [1] - The company has established a European headquarters in Munich and is building deep connections with international clients such as Bosch, Continental, and Volkswagen, which may help expand its autonomous driving solutions globally [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a market share of 45.8% in basic ADAS and 32.4% in overall ADAS solutions, leading the Chinese market [2] - The company saw a doubling of J-series chip shipments to 1.98 million units year-on-year, with shipments of chips supporting NOA functionality increasing fivefold to 980,000 units [2] - The company has secured nearly 90 new model designations, with over 15 models featuring mid-to-high level ADAS solutions entering mass production [2] Group 3 - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index, enhancing its visibility and attracting passive fund inflows [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected shipments of 4 million, 5.04 million, and 7 million units, representing year-on-year growth of 38%, 26%, and 39% respectively [2] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.62 billion, 5.85 billion, and 8.39 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 62%, and 43% respectively [2] Group 4 - The company is positioned as a rare third-party full-stack autonomous driving solution provider in China, benefiting from trends in domestic substitution, automotive intelligence, and edge AI development [3] - The target price for the company is set at 12.44 HKD, with a target PS of 27 times for 2026, corresponding to a target market value of 158 billion yuan [3] - Comparisons with peer companies suggest a PS of 21, 32, and 26 times for Nvidia, ARM, and Cambricon respectively for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) with a target price of HKD 12.44 [2][7]. Core Views - The introduction of the Chery Star Era ET5 featuring Horizon's HSD autonomous driving solution is expected to drive accelerated growth, with the product anticipated to launch in November 2025 [2]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted positively, with expected shipments of 4 million, 5.04 million, and 7 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 38%, 26%, and 39% [2]. Financial Summary - Main revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 2,384 million, HKD 3,620 million, HKD 5,851 million, and HKD 8,386 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 53.6%, 51.9%, 61.6%, and 43.3% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be HKD 2,347 million in 2024, with losses of HKD 7,082 million, HKD 2,726 million, and HKD 1,436 million in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at HKD 0.17 for 2024, with negative EPS of HKD -0.51, -0.20, and -0.10 for the following years [3][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Horizon Robotics holds the leading market share in China for basic ADAS and overall ADAS solutions, with respective shares of 45.8% and 32.4% [7]. - The company has achieved significant growth in chip shipments, with 1H25 figures showing a doubling in J series chip shipments to 1.98 million units and a fivefold increase in J5/J6 chips supporting NOA functionality to 980,000 units [7]. - The establishment of a European headquarters and partnerships with international clients like Bosch and Volkswagen positions the company favorably for global expansion [7]. Valuation Perspective - The report suggests a target price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 27x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of HKD 158 billion [7]. - The valuation is compared to peers such as Nvidia, ARM, and Cambricon, with their projected PS ratios for 2026 being 21, 32, and 26 respectively [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Horizon Robotics (09660) is positioned to benefit from the trends of domestic substitution, automotive intelligence, and edge AI development, with a target price set at HKD 12.44 and a "Recommended" rating maintained [1] - The company anticipates significant growth in its core forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected shipments of 4 million, 5.04 million, and 7 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 38%, 26%, and 39% [1] - Revenue projections for the same period are set at CNY 36.2 billion, 58.5 billion, and 83.9 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 62%, and 43% [1] Group 2 - The HSD (Horizon SuperDrive) solution is set for mass production, marking a significant change in the high-level autonomous driving market, with the first vehicle featuring this solution expected to launch in November 2025 [1] - The company has established a European headquarters in Munich and is building deep connections with international clients such as Bosch, Continental, and Volkswagen, which may help to expand its global reach [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a market share of 45.8% in basic ADAS and 32.4% in overall ADAS solutions, leading the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index, enhancing its visibility and investment appeal in the Hong Kong market [3] - The company is recognized as a rare AI-related stock in the Hong Kong market, with both configuration value and risk appetite on the rise [3] - The stock's inclusion in the indices is expected to attract passive fund inflows, positively impacting its stock performance [3]