Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 624 million yuan, which is a 29.7% increase year-on-year [6][10] - The company added 965 new workshop stores in 2024, with over 90% of the stores being profitable for more than six months [6][10] - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by upstream bargaining power and product structure optimization [10] Financial Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, with automotive products and services contributing 13.8 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year [8] - The revenue from advertising, franchising, and other services was 960 million yuan, showing a slight growth of 0.3% [8] - The company expects revenues for 2025 to reach approximately 16.4 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits projected at 760 million yuan [10][13] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 18.16 HKD on March 24, with a 52-week price range of 13.84 to 29 HKD [2] - The company has shown a relative performance against the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-month absolute increase of 8.1% and a relative increase of 6.3% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain its pricing power while improving gross margins through scale advantages in 2025 [6][10] - The penetration rate of the fast repair business among users exceeded 10% in 2024, with certain product categories experiencing over 50% growth [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised from HKD 18 to HKD 21, indicating a potential upside of 15.6% [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to return to double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by strategic pricing initiatives that enhance user numbers and order volumes. Despite a short-term decline in gross profit margin in the second half of 2024, improvements in procurement negotiations and increased contributions from self-controlled brands are anticipated to stabilize margins in 2025 [2][6]. - Operating expenses have significant room for reduction through more efficient logistics and automation, which is expected to support a continued upward trend in profit margins. The company plans to maintain a growth rate of nearly 1,000 new stores, with over half of the growth coming from lower-tier markets [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 16,741 million, with a slight decrease of 0.3% from previous estimates. Gross profit is expected to be RMB 4,303 million, reflecting a 0.2% increase [5][14]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 25.7% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach RMB 681 million, maintaining an operating margin of 4.1% [5][14]. - The adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 777 million for 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.6% [5][14]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 0.89%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.65 and a low of HKD 14.24. The market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 13,469.82 million [4][14]. User Engagement and Market Expansion - The average monthly active users (MAU) and annual transaction users are expected to grow by 17.2% and 24.8% respectively in 2024. The number of factory stores has increased by 965 to a total of 6,874, with lower-tier markets accounting for 58.2% of the store count [6][7]. - The company has also integrated AI models like DeepSeek into its core business operations to enhance store operational efficiency [6]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the next few years, with significant growth expected in both revenue and net profit by 2027 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 14.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with an adjusted net profit of 624 million yuan, up 29.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on market share growth and optimizing operational efficiency, with a significant increase in user engagement and store expansion [3][4]. - The company is actively enhancing its supply chain efficiency and supporting franchisees to improve operational performance [5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit of 3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with a gross margin of 25.4%, up 0.7 percentage points [1]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 2024 was 4.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [1]. - For the second half of 2024, the company expects revenue of 7.6 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in adjusted net profit to 266 million yuan [1]. User and Store Growth - By the end of 2024, the total number of stores reached 6,874, with a net increase of 965 stores, marking a 16.3% year-on-year growth [3]. - The number of transaction users increased to 24.1 million, a year-on-year growth of 24.8%, while registered users reached 139 million, up 20.4% [3]. - The company has expanded its presence in key regions, including over 1,000 stores in Guangdong and coverage in major cities [3]. New Energy Vehicle Strategy - The company is accelerating its penetration into the new energy vehicle market, with transaction users for new energy vehicles reaching 2.7 million, a 105% year-on-year increase [4]. - The sales of hybrid engine oil increased by over 270% year-on-year, and the company has established connections with 70,000 charging stations across more than 340 cities [4]. Operational Efficiency - The total operating expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased to 23.6%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has implemented a support program for franchisees, investing nearly 100 million yuan in 2024 to enhance profitability and operational efficiency [5]. - The company has increased its warehouse density and optimized inventory models, leading to a reduction in fulfillment costs [5].

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 14,758,694, an increase of 8.5% compared to RMB 13,601,085 in 2023[6]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 3,745,978, with a gross margin of 25.4%, up from 24.7% in 2023, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point increase[6]. - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) reached RMB 624,138, representing a 29.7% increase from RMB 481,314 in 2023[6]. - The operating profit for 2024 was RMB 331.03 million, compared to RMB 161.52 million in 2023, indicating significant growth in profitability[39]. - The total profit for 2024 was RMB 482,038 thousand, a significant decrease from RMB 6,700,697 thousand in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 92.8%[127]. - The total comprehensive income for 2024 amounted to RMB 527,312 thousand, down from RMB 6,226,907 thousand in 2023, indicating a decrease of about 91.5%[127]. - Basic earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 0.6, compared to RMB 20.8 in 2023[126]. User Growth and Engagement - The number of transaction users increased to 24.1 million, a growth of 24.8% from 19.3 million in 2023[9]. - The total number of registered users reached 138.8 million, up 20.4% from 115.3 million in 2023[9]. - The average monthly active users of the app reached 12 million, a significant increase of 17.2% from the previous year[11]. - The number of electric vehicle transaction users on the platform reached 2.7 million, a year-on-year growth of 105%, accounting for over 11% of total transaction users[32]. Operational Efficiency - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased to 23.6%, down 0.7 percentage points from 2023[10]. - The fulfillment cost ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5% in 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency[33]. - The order fulfillment rate for next-day delivery improved by over 5 percentage points to 79% in 2024, demonstrating enhanced logistics efficiency[33]. Service Expansion - The company operated 6,874 service centers, a 16.3% increase from 5,909 in 2023, with franchise centers growing by 16.7%[9]. - By the end of 2024, the total number of Tuhu service stations reached 6,874, with a net increase of 965 stations during the year, solidifying its position as the largest automotive service platform in the country[18]. - The number of Tuhu service stations in Guangdong province surpassed 1,000, making it the first province to achieve this milestone[18]. Marketing and Promotion - The total promotional expenses for the year reached RMB 1.04 billion, an increase of RMB 250 million compared to the same period last year, resulting in an average increase of RMB 14,000 per store[21]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 11.8% from RMB 1.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 1.9 billion in 2024, due to enhanced marketing activities[53]. Research and Development - R&D expenses grew by 10.4% from RMB 579.6 million in 2023 to RMB 639.8 million in 2024, driven by increased spending on cloud and computing capabilities for AI applications[51]. - Research and development to improve data analytics technology received a 20% allocation, totaling RMB 254.7 million, with RMB 227.7 million already utilized[168]. Financial Position - The company maintained a strong cash reserve of over RMB 75 billion as of the end of 2024, ensuring ample liquidity for future operations[10]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 1,375 billion as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 2,715 billion as of December 31, 2023[84]. - Total non-current assets increased to RMB 4.432 billion as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 3.493 billion as of December 31, 2023[84]. Corporate Governance - The company has complied with all applicable corporate governance code provisions up to the announcement date, except for the separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO[170]. - The audit committee reviewed the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, and found no discrepancies in accounting treatment[176]. Future Outlook - The company emphasizes the importance of forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties[187]. - The company plans to publish its annual report for the year ending December 31, 2024, on its website and the stock exchange's website[182].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained [1] Core Insights - The automotive aftermarket is experiencing cautious consumer spending, leading to accelerated changes in the supply-side landscape. The cumulative output per vehicle in the automotive aftermarket is expected to decline by 1% year-on-year in 2024, with quarterly changes showing a mixed trend [4] - The company is expanding its workshop stores steadily, with a total of 6,311 stores as of the first half of 2024, an increase of 402 stores from the end of 2023. The company plans to open an additional 500-600 stores in the second half of 2024 [5] - The company's revenue is projected to grow by approximately 8% year-on-year in the second half of 2024, despite a decrease in single-store revenue due to pricing strategies [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 15.480, with a total share capital of 819 million shares and a market capitalization of HKD 127 billion [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.81% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 [3] - The largest shareholder is Imaginary Structure Investment (Hong Kong) Limited [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 147.89 billion, HKD 163.46 billion, and HKD 179.17 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 4.49 billion, HKD 7.09 billion, and HKD 10.46 billion [6][10] - The expected gross margin for the full year of 2024 is 25.1%, with a slight decrease in net profit margin anticipated in the second half of 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to capture more market share at the industry bottom, although profit growth is anticipated to slow down [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 8.5% to 14.76 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 25.3% to 600 million [8] - The company is enhancing its pricing power and brand promotion in a weak demand environment, leading to an accelerated market share increase [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue (in million) for the years 2022A to 2026E is projected as follows: - 2022A: 11,547 - 2023A: 13,601 - 2024E: 14,759 - 2025E: 16,245 - 2026E: 17,868 [1] - Adjusted net profit (in million) is forecasted as: - 2022A: (2,136) - 2023A: 6,703 - 2024E: 427 - 2025E: 622 - 2026E: 845 [1] - Non-IFRS net profit (in million) is expected to be: - 2022A: (552) - 2023A: 481 - 2024E: 603 - 2025E: 806 - 2026E: 1,021 [1] Market Data - The closing price is 15.48 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 11,622.33 million HKD [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 15 times [8] Operational Insights - The company plans to open 1,000 new stores in 2024, with a total store count exceeding 6,800 by year-end [8] - The average store efficiency is expected to decline due to weak demand and market expansion [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth from 13,601 million in 2023 to 17,389 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [8] - The net profit is expected to increase from 6,701 million in 2023 to 1,204 million in 2026, indicating a significant recovery after a dip in 2024 [8] - The report highlights a projected increase in adjusted net profit from 481 million in 2023 to 1,258 million in 2026, showcasing strong growth potential [8] Financial Summary - **Balance Sheet**: Total assets are expected to grow from 38,870 million in 2023 to 42,210 million in 2026, with current assets increasing from 8,271 million to 11,623 million [7] - **Cash Flow Statement**: Operating cash flow is projected to rise from 1,021 million in 2023 to 1,729 million in 2026, indicating improved cash generation capabilities [7] - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 24.7% in 2023 to 27.2% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 150.3% to 17.1% over the same period [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][8]. Core Views - The report indicates that while short-term profit margins are expected to fluctuate due to pricing strategy changes, the revenue growth outlook remains positive. The company is projected to achieve revenue growth slightly better than previously expected in the second half of 2024, driven by effective pricing strategies that boost order volume and market share. However, the adjustments in pricing are anticipated to lead to a slight decline in profit margins in the short term [2][7]. - The target price has been revised down from HKD 24 to HKD 18, reflecting a 16.9% potential upside from the current price of HKD 15.40, based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][8]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with a 17% and 32% downward revision in adjusted net profit for those years, respectively. The new revenue forecasts are RMB 14,763 million for 2024 and RMB 16,793 million for 2025, reflecting a 0.3% increase from previous estimates [6][11]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 611 million, with a net profit margin of 4.1%, and for 2025, it is projected to be RMB 783 million, with a net profit margin of 4.7% [6][11]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 14,763 million in 2024, with a gross profit of RMB 3,717 million, resulting in a gross margin of 25.2%. For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to RMB 16,793 million, with a gross profit of RMB 4,296 million and a gross margin of 25.6% [6][11]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 1,082 million, with an EBITDA margin of 6.4%, while for 2025, it is expected to reach RMB 1,558 million, with an EBITDA margin of 8.3% [6][11]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 14.44%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.70 and a low of HKD 10.46. The average daily trading volume is 21.63 million shares [4][11].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Tuhu Car (9690 HK) with a target price of HK$20 00, representing a 29 9% upside from the current price of HK$15 40 [1][4] Core Views - Tuhu Car's 2H24E adjusted net profit is expected to decline 9% YoY and 32% HoH to RMB243mn due to weaker-than-expected 3Q24 sales and delayed new store openings [1] - FY25E revenue growth is projected to accelerate to 13% YoY, driven by new stores opened in 4Q24 and increased support for existing stores [1] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 25 1% in FY24E to 25 7% in FY25E, supported by lower procurement costs and higher sales of high-margin exclusive and private-label products [10] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise 27% YoY to RMB763mn in FY25E, with a net margin of 4 6% (+0 5ppts YoY) [10] Financial Performance - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB14 764mn (+8 5% YoY), with net profit of RMB445mn (-93 4% YoY) and adjusted net profit of RMB601mn (+25% YoY) [2][10] - FY25E revenue is estimated at RMB16 749mn (+13 4% YoY), with net profit of RMB640mn (+43 9% YoY) and adjusted net profit of RMB763mn (+27% YoY) [2][10] - FY26E revenue is forecasted at RMB18 153mn (+8 4% YoY), with net profit of RMB882mn (+37 9% YoY) and adjusted net profit of RMB994mn (+30 2% YoY) [2][10] Operational Highlights - Total store count is expected to exceed 6 900 by the end of FY24, up from over 900 stores in FY24 [10] - 2H24E gross margin is projected to decline 1 5ppts HoH and 0 7ppts YoY to 24 4% due to price cuts on tire products [10] - Selling expense ratio is estimated to rise 1 1ppts HoH to 13 8% in 2H24E to boost customer traffic [10] Valuation - The target price of HK$20 00 is based on 20x revised adjusted FY25E EPS, reflecting Tuhu Car's resilience compared to peers amid economic uncertainties [10] - Tuhu Car trades at a discount to US peers O'Reilly (ORLY US) and Advance Auto Parts (AAP US), which have valuation multiples of around 30x [10] Share Performance - Tuhu Car's share price has declined 21 1% over the past month, 24 1% over the past three months, and 16 8% over the past six months [6] Shareholding Structure - Tencent Holdings holds a 19 4% stake in Tuhu Car, while Mr Chen Min owns 10 1% [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Tuhu-W, raising the target price from HKD 22.5 to HKD 24.5, anticipating continued operational leverage and efficiency improvements, which will lower operating expense ratios and enhance gross margins [1] - Goldman Sachs views Tuhu as the largest independent automotive aftermarket supplier in China, benefiting from transparent pricing and revenue-generating capabilities [2]