证券研究报告 港股公司|公司深度|途虎-W（09690） 领航 O2O 汽车服务，规模效应释放利润 弹性 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月11日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司定位独立汽车服务供应商，通过一体化线上线下的模式提供标准化、高质量的服务。上游 供应商方面，公司作为行业龙头，凭借规模优势拥有较强的议价能力，成本优势明显；下游需 求端方面，公司通过线上"途虎养车"APP 和线下自营途虎工场店、加盟途虎工场店以及合作 门店 3 种类型的服务门店，打造出一个连接了包括车主、供应商、服务门店等在内的综合汽 车服务平台。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522060001 邓文慧 郭家玮 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 44 港股公司|公司深度 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月11日 途虎-W(09690) 领航 O2O 汽车服务，规模效应释放利润弹性 | --- | --- | |------------|--------------| | 行 业： | 商贸零售 | | 投资评级： | 买入（首次） | | 当前价格： | 15.58 港元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the expected revenue growth and profitability improvements [1]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 7.11 to 7.17 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 10%, with an adjusted net profit of about 330 to 340 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 4.6% to 4.7% [1]. - The company's store expansion is a key driver for revenue growth, with an expected net increase of about 1,000 stores in 2024. However, short-term average transaction value (ATV) is under pressure due to weak domestic consumption and longer replacement cycles for products like tires and engine oil [1]. - Effective cost control and improved management efficiency are expected to enhance profitability, with a projected gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points in 2024 [1]. - The independent automotive aftermarket is expanding, and the company, as a leading Independent Aftermarket (IAM) player, is well-positioned to benefit from this growth [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 13.6 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 14.89 billion yuan in 2024, 16.68 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.76 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 9%, 12%, and 13% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 670.3 million yuan in 2023, with a significant drop to 85.2 million yuan in 2024, followed by recoveries to 135.7 million yuan in 2025 and 206 million yuan in 2026 [2]. Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratios are 1.24 for 2023, 13.62 for 2024, 8.56 for 2025, and 5.64 for 2026, indicating a significant valuation change over the forecast period [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 24.7% in 2023 to 30.55% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 49.28% in 2023 to 10.98% in 2026 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage and scale effects in the IAM sector, with a focus on product quality and user demand [1]. - The company is enhancing its brand portfolio and increasing the proportion of its own brands, which is expected to cater to the demand for cost-effective products [1].

股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 途虎-W 恒生指数 -100% -50% 0% 50% 2023-09-26 2024-01-09 2024-04-23 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（港元） 16.200 总股本/流通股本（亿股）8.12 / 7.44 总市值/流通市值（亿港 | --- | --- | |--------------------|----------------------| | | 132/ 121 | | 元） | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 37.70 / 9.01 | | 资产负债率(%) | 62.10 | | 市盈率 | 16.5 | | | 意像架构投资(香港)有 | | 第一大股东 | | | | 限公司 | 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 研究助理:殷先伟 SAC 登记编号:S1340123080022 Email:yinxianwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《途虎-W（9690.HK）： IAM 龙头发力万 亿汽后蓝海市场，加快 ...

海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 市占率提升逻辑稳健，利润率持续优化 途虎-W(9690) 商业服务与商业用品 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 —— 途虎 2024H1 业绩前瞻 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.06 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|-----------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 宋小寒(研究助理) | | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880122070054 | 本报告导读： 途虎在规模、供应链及门店管控等方面竞争优势显著，看好公司长期市占率提升空 间。 投资要点： [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tuhu, with a target price of 17.06 HKD [2] Core Views - Tuhu's revenue is primarily driven by individual consumers, with 80% of its income coming from this segment [1] - The company's gross margin improvement is attributed to scale effects, higher-margin maintenance services, and increased sales of proprietary products [1] - Tuhu's single-store model shows that franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with steady-state operations achieved after 3 years [1] - The report forecasts Tuhu's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 14.7/16.1/17.7 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 750/1190/1600 million RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, 50% of Tuhu's revenue came from tires and chassis components, while 44% came from maintenance services [1] - The gross profit contribution from tires and chassis components was 37%, while maintenance services contributed 40% [1] - Tuhu's revenue from individual consumers reached 11.265 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for 82.8% of total revenue [7] Gross Margin Analysis - Tuhu's gross margin increased from 7.4% in 2019 to 24.7% in 2023, driven by direct procurement and scale effects [11] - The maintenance business, with a gross margin of 32.4% in 2023, contributed 60% of the total gross profit [9] - Tuhu's proprietary and exclusive brands accounted for 68.3% of revenue in 2023, up from 22.2% in 2019 [16] Single-Store Model - Tuhu's stores typically reach steady-state operations after 3 years, with average store revenue increasing from 324,000 RMB in the first year to 775,000 RMB after 3 years [20] - The gross margin of stores increases from 21.6% in the first year to 25.7% after 3 years [20] - Franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with a store lifecycle of over 8 years [23] Competitive Landscape - Tuhu operates over 6,000 stores as of May 2024, significantly more than competitors like Tmall Auto Care and JD Auto Care [6] - Tuhu's supply chain includes 34 regional distribution centers and 511 front-end distribution centers, ensuring efficient logistics [56] - The company's user base reached 115 million registered users by the end of 2023, with a 60% repurchase rate [6] Industry Comparison - The US auto aftermarket leaders, AutoZone and O'Reilly, achieved 10-year revenue CAGRs of 6.7% and 9.0%, respectively, from 2013 to 2023 [81] - AutoZone and O'Reilly's store counts grew at CAGRs of 3.2% and 4.0%, respectively, during the same period [80] - Tuhu's growth trajectory is compared to these US leaders, with a focus on the potential for similar scale and profitability in China [78] Market Potential - China's average vehicle age is 6.2 years in 2022, expected to reach 8.0 years by 2027, indicating significant growth potential in the aftermarket [74] - The report highlights that 55% of vehicles in China are under 6 years old, and 66% have annual mileage below 10,000 km, suggesting untapped demand for aftermarket services [70]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 途虎-W(09690.HK) 24H1 业绩前瞻:行业需求承压,不改份额及 利润率提升趋势 2024 年 07 月 22 日 买入(维持) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------|----------|---------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11563 | 13606 | 14637 | 16864 | 19226 | | 同比(%) | (1.42) | 17.67 | 7.58 | 15.21 | 14.01 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (2,136.17) | 6,702.94 | 531.68 | 1,042.82 | 1,601.04 | | 同比(%) | - | - | (92.07) | 96.14 | 53.53 | | Non-IFRS ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 18.32 [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive aftermarket IAM sector, with a strong focus on market expansion and business structure optimization, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and profit [4][29]. - The automotive aftermarket is a trillion-yuan market with a fragmented structure that is gradually consolidating, providing opportunities for IAM players to increase their market share [4][18]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 15.88 billion, 18.73 billion, and 22.11 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.7%, 18.0%, and 18.02% [2][4]. Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the automotive aftermarket for over 10 years, focusing on tire and chassis components, automotive maintenance, and other automotive parts and services [4][8]. - It has established an integrated online and offline business model, leveraging its brand, management, and financial strengths to create a competitive moat [4][29]. Industry Analysis - The automotive aftermarket is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and average vehicle age [18][19]. - The market has historically been dominated by dealers, but the share of independent third-party players (IAM) is expected to rise as traditional dealers face challenges [21][24]. Competitive Landscape - The IAM sector currently has a low concentration, with the top five players holding only about 3% of the market share, indicating significant room for growth and consolidation [26][28]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share from traditional dealers due to its competitive pricing and rapid store expansion [24][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of approximately 18% from 2019 to 2023, and has recently turned profitable for the first time in 2023 [15][17]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, rising from 7% in 2019 to 25% in 2023, reflecting effective cost control and a shift towards higher-margin automotive maintenance services [17][29]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its presence in second-tier cities and optimize its business structure to enhance profitability [4][15]. - Key growth drivers include increasing registered users and transaction conversion rates, supported by the expansion of online orders [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Tuhu-W (09690 HK) with a target price of HKD 28 [1][9] Core Views - Tuhu is a leading internet-based auto service company in China with nearly 6000 stores (152 self-operated and 5757 franchised) as of 2023, ranking first in store count among all auto service providers in China [1] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 13 6 billion in 2023, ranking first in IAM store auto service revenue in 2022 [1] - Tuhu's main revenue comes from tires and chassis parts (40%) and car maintenance (36%) [1] - The Chinese auto service market exceeded RMB 1 2 trillion in 2022, with a 10% CAGR from 2018 to 2022 [2] - Tuhu has three competitive advantages in "goods, stores, and people": - Goods: High gross margin potential from self-controlled products (currently 26%, could reach over 50%) [2] - Stores: Strong store expansion capability with 93% profitable stores and 6-month ramp-up period for franchised stores [2] - People: Low user penetration rate (24%) but high retention rate (57% repurchase rate in Q1 2023) [2] Company Overview - Tuhu was founded in 2011 and has grown to become China's leading independent auto service brand with 5909 Tuhu Workshop stores and 19000 partner stores as of Q1 2023 [13] - The company has 115 million registered users and 19 3 million transacting users in 2023, with 10 2 million MAU in Q1 2023 [13] - Tuhu achieved revenue of RMB 13 6 billion in 2023, with gross profit of RMB 3 36 billion and gross margin of 24 7% [14] Industry Analysis - China's auto service market reached RMB 12 398 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a 9 0% CAGR to RMB 19 319 billion by 2027 [23] - Key demand drivers include car ownership, average vehicle age, and per-vehicle maintenance spending [23] - China's passenger car ownership reached 270 million in 2022, with per 1000 people ownership of 194, much lower than developed countries [25] - The average vehicle age in China is 6 2 years (2022), significantly lower than the US (12 2 years) and EU (12 3 years) [28] - NEV penetration in China reached 4 6% in 2022 and is expected to reach 20 5% by 2027 [26] Competitive Advantages - Tuhu has three main competitive advantages: 1) Product advantage: Potential for gross margin improvement through self-controlled products [2] 2) Store advantage: Strong store expansion capability with high standardization and profitability [2] 3) User advantage: Low penetration but high retention rate [2] - The company has built a comprehensive supply chain infrastructure with 34 regional warehouses and 511 front warehouses as of 2023 [54] - Tuhu's franchised stores have a 6-month ramp-up period and 93% profitability rate for stores open over 6 months [54] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 13 6 billion in 2023 to RMB 19 2 billion in 2026 [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 670 million in 2023 to RMB 1 47 billion in 2026 [3] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profit of RMB 884 million in 2024, RMB 1 28 billion in 2025, and RMB 1 67 billion in 2026 [9] Valuation - Based on a 30x PE multiple for 2024 earnings, the target market cap is HKD 22 6 billion, implying a target price of HKD 28 [9] - The valuation is supported by Tuhu's strong growth potential and profitability improvement during its rapid store expansion phase [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Tuhu-W (09690.HK), marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - Tuhu has established itself as the leading player in the independent automotive aftermarket (IAM) sector in China, achieving its first annual profit in 2023, validating its business model [2][10]. - The automotive service market in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2023 to 2027 [2][11]. - The report highlights the advantages of Tuhu's O2O (Online to Offline) model, which is expected to capture a larger market share as consumer demand for IAM services increases [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Service Demand Reaches a Turning Point - The automotive service market in China is expected to grow from 1.24 trillion yuan in 2022 to 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 9% [11][12]. - The average vehicle age has reached a maintenance turning point, with annual service spending per vehicle projected to increase to 5,168 yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 2.7% [21][24]. 2. Supply Changes: Internet Models Drive Value Redistribution - The market is highly fragmented, with the top five players holding less than 6% market share, indicating significant growth potential for IAM services [29][32]. - The report notes that as more vehicles reach the end of their warranty periods, consumer demand for IAM services is expected to rise, with IAM GMV projected to grow to 1.1 trillion yuan by 2027 [29][36]. 3. Tuhu: A Model of Effective Expansion - Tuhu has successfully expanded its store network, with a focus on sustainable profitability and high customer retention rates [2][10]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 25% in 2023, with significant room for improvement compared to U.S. IAM leaders, whose average gross margin is 46% [2][10]. - Tuhu's user repurchase rate and revenue contribution from existing customers are steadily increasing, indicating strong customer loyalty [2][10]. 4. Management Control and New Phase Post-IPO - The management team is effectively steering the company towards its growth objectives, leveraging its IPO to support further expansion [2][10]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts adjusted net profits for Tuhu of 736 million yuan in 2024, 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.78 billion yuan in 2026, with a target price of 33 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [2][10].

汽车/汽车服务 公 司 研 途虎-W（09690.HK） 从北美四大汽配连锁看途虎成长空间 究 2024年05月31日 ——港股公司深度报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 殷晟路（分析师） 陈诺（联系人） yinshenglu@kysec.cn chennuo@kysec.cn 日期 2024/5/31 证 书编号：S0790522080001 证书编号：S0790123070031 当前股价(港元) 25.600  对标北美四大汽配连锁，途虎的市占率和毛利率仍有较大上升空间 港 一年最高最低(港元) 37.700/9.010 北美汽配连锁AutoZone、O’Reilly、Advance Auto Parts、NAPA CR4 2021年门店 股 公 总市值(亿港元) 210.39 数量市占率高达49 %，竞争格局高度集中。 司 流通市值(亿港元) 210.39  AutoZone定位“社区商店”，直营门店数量最多，DIY占比超7成； 深 总股本(亿股) 8.22  O'Reilly坚持双重客户战略，受益于DIFM业务的高增速，市值反超第一； 度 报 流通港股(亿股) 8.22  Advance Auto ...