汽车/汽车服务 公 司 研 途虎-W（09690.HK） 首次实现全年盈利，规模效应打开未来成长空间 究 2024年03月17日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 殷晟路（分析师） 陈诺（联系人） yinshenglu@kysec.cn chennuo@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790522080001 证书编号：S0790123070031 日期 2024/3/15 港 当前股价(港元) 11.960  首次实现全年盈利，回购彰显业绩信心 股 一年最高最低(港元) 37.700/9.010 途虎-W发布2023年年报，公司2023年实现营业收入136.01亿元，yoy+17.6%； 公 司 总市值(亿港元) 97.94 实现经调整 EBITDA7.58 亿元，经调整净利润 4.82 亿元，首次实现全年盈利。 信 流通市值(亿港元) 97.94 2023年公司综合毛利率为24.7%，较去年同期提升5pct。截至2023年底，途虎 息 总股本(亿股) 8.19 的注册用户已达到1.15亿人，全年交易用户超过1930万人。此外，公司3月15 更 新 流通港股(亿股) 8.19 日发布回购 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tuhu-W (9690.HK) with a target price of 11.96 HKD, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's future performance [2]. Core Insights - Tuhu-W achieved a revenue of 13.6 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.8%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 484 million RMB, marking a significant increase of 188% [1][2]. - The company's revenue structure is improving, with a historical high gross margin of 24.7% in 2023, up by 5.0 percentage points year-on-year. The automotive maintenance business, which has a gross margin of 32.4%, is contributing to this improvement [1]. - Tuhu's expansion strategy is effective, with 5,909 service stores by the end of 2023, an increase of 1,256 stores throughout the year. This expansion is expected to meet the growing demand for vehicle maintenance as car usage increases [1]. - The management has announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth potential. The buyback amount will not exceed 10 million HKD, representing over 10% of the company's market capitalization [1]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 15.79 billion RMB, 18.38 billion RMB, and 21.18 billion RMB, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 848 million RMB, 1.51 billion RMB, and 2.10 billion RMB for the same years [2][7]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be 1.04 RMB, 1.84 RMB, and 2.56 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 6, and 4 times [2][7].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, reached RMB 13.6 billion, a 17.8% increase from RMB 11.5 billion in 2022[8]. - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 3.36 billion, corresponding to a gross margin of 24.7%, up 5.0 percentage points from the previous year[10]. - Adjusted net profit for 2023 was RMB 481.3 million, compared to a loss of RMB 551.9 million in 2022[8]. - The company's operating profit improved to RMB 161.5 million in 2023 from a loss of RMB 763.9 million in 2022[1]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 6.7 billion, a significant turnaround from a net loss of RMB 2.1 billion in 2022[49]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was RMB 757.8 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 186.5 million in the previous year[1]. - The company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 13.6 billion, an increase of 17.8% compared to RMB 11.5 billion for the year ended December 31, 2022[32]. - Automotive products and services revenue grew by 17.9% from RMB 10.7 billion in 2022 to RMB 12.6 billion in 2023, driven by increased travel demand post-pandemic[34]. User Growth and Engagement - The number of transaction users increased to 19.3 million, a growth of 16.9% from 16.5 million in 2022[9]. - Registered users reached 115.3 million, representing a 20.7% increase from 95.5 million in 2022[9]. - The user repurchase rate was nearly 60%, with half of the total revenue generated from repeat customers[11]. - Customer satisfaction reached 94.2% in 2023, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous year, indicating the company's leading position in the industry[13]. Store Expansion and Network - The number of Tuhu workshop stores increased to 5,909, a 27.0% rise from 4,653 in 2022[9]. - By the end of 2023, the company had expanded its store network to 5,909 locations, an increase of 1,256 stores compared to the same period in 2022, covering over 300 cities across all provincial-level administrative regions in China[15]. - The number of stores in second-tier and lower cities reached 3,420 by the end of 2023, with 881 new stores added compared to the previous year, highlighting the potential in lower-tier markets[15]. Operational Efficiency - Operating expenses as a percentage of total revenue decreased to 24.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous year[10]. - The average daily store visits by supervisors increased by 28.6% to 1.8 stores per day by the end of 2023, following the implementation of a new intelligent task allocation system[18]. - The proportion of profitable stores that have been open for more than six months increased from 81% in December 2022 to 93% in December 2023[18]. Product and Service Development - The automotive maintenance business gross profit rose to RMB 1.6 billion, a 34.3% increase from RMB 1.2 billion in 2022[10]. - The company has expanded its product matrix by over 700 SKUs in the tire category, adapting to consumer trends and preferences[20]. - The automotive maintenance business has expanded to over 41 categories and more than 8,000 SKUs, emphasizing a scientific approach to user recommendations[21]. - In 2023, revenue from exclusive and self-controlled products accounted for 42.4% and 25.9% of automotive product and service revenue, respectively[22]. Financial Position and Assets - The company's total assets as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 11.76 billion, an increase from RMB 8.01 billion in 2022[120]. - Current assets reached RMB 8,271,281 thousand, an increase from RMB 6,905,846 thousand in 2022, with cash and cash equivalents slightly rising to RMB 2,715,285 thousand[75]. - The company's total liabilities decreased significantly from RMB 22,398,481 thousand in 2022 to RMB 704,013 thousand in 2023, primarily due to the elimination of convertible redeemable preferred shares[76]. - The company's net asset value improved to RMB 4,458,319 thousand in 2023 from a negative net asset value of RMB (18,956,564) thousand in 2022[76]. Cash Flow and Investments - Operating cash flow for 2023 was RMB 1.02 billion, a significant recovery from a cash outflow of RMB 312.7 million in 2022[102]. - The net cash flow from financing activities in 2023 was RMB 1.3 billion, mainly resulting from the net proceeds from the global offering of Class A shares[106]. - The company reported a net cash outflow from investing activities of RMB 2,371,766 thousand in 2023, compared to a cash inflow of RMB 481,347 thousand in 2022[123]. Corporate Governance and Future Plans - The company has adhered to all applicable corporate governance codes since its listing date, with no reported breaches by senior management[160][161]. - The company plans to continue focusing on expanding its franchise network and enhancing its SaaS solutions to drive future revenue growth[78]. - The company emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence in its future business plans and strategies[177]. - The company is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to accelerate growth and market expansion[178].

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has announced the second batch of 2024 regarding APPs (SDKs) that infringe on user rights, identifying 62 applications that violate user rights protections [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - MIIT emphasizes the importance of user rights protection and is taking actions based on laws such as the Personal Information Protection Law and the Cybersecurity Law [1]. - The identified APPs and SDKs are required to rectify their violations, with potential legal consequences for non-compliance [1]. Group 2: Identified Issues - Common issues found in the reported APPs include misleading users through "shake to switch" features, inability to close information windows, and unauthorized collection of personal information [1][2]. - Specific APPs like "Signal Detector" and "Night Run Fitness" were noted for excessive permission requests and misleading user interfaces [2][4]. Group 3: APPs and SDKs Listed - A detailed list of the 62 APPs and SDKs includes names such as "Crazy Crusher," "Mi Reader," and "Hardcore Mobile Games," with issues ranging from misleading information windows to unauthorized data collection [2][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. - The list highlights the developers and the specific problems associated with each APP, indicating a widespread issue across various applications [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Tuhu (途虎) [5][8]. Core Views - The Chinese automotive market is entering a stage of stock economy, with the number of passenger cars expected to reach 374 million by 2027, making it the largest in the world. The demand for after-sales maintenance services will grow significantly due to the increasing average age of vehicles [5][34]. - Tuhu has established itself as a leading integrated online and offline automotive service platform in China, with a revenue of 11.55 billion RMB in 2022 and a CAGR of approximately 17.94% from 2019 to 2022 [5][74]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its store network, with plans to add nearly 1,000 stores annually, which will support steady revenue growth [5][9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Chinese automotive service market is projected to reach nearly 2 trillion RMB by 2027, with maintenance and repair services accounting for the largest share [5][47]. - The market is characterized by a fragmented structure, with around 680,000 automotive service providers, and Tuhu holds the largest number of service stores in China [5][60]. Business Development - Tuhu has over 24,394 service stores as of March 31, 2023, including 4,770 Tuhu workshop stores and 19,624 partner stores, covering most prefecture-level cities in China [5][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in transaction users, growing from 8.6 million in 2019 to 17.1 million in Q1 2023, achieving a CAGR of 17.6% [5][9]. Financial Performance - Tuhu's revenue is expected to reach 13.54 billion RMB in 2023, with projected net profits of 324 million RMB, and is forecasted to grow to 21.77 billion RMB by 2026 [6][8]. - The company’s operating efficiency is expected to improve, with the expense ratio projected to decrease from 22.2% in 2022 to 17.6% in 2025, supporting net profit growth [5][9]. Valuation - The report conservatively assigns a 15x P/E ratio for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 20.5 billion RMB, indicating a potential upside of 46% from current levels [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2023, with a net profit forecast of no less than 6.6 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.1 billion yuan in 2022, indicating a significant turnaround [3] - Adjusted profit for 2023 is projected to be at least 450 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 550 million yuan in 2022 [3] - The substantial change in net profit is primarily due to the impact of convertible redeemable preferred shares, with a one-time positive adjustment of 6.47 billion yuan in fair value expected in 2023 [3] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projected revenues of 15.795 billion yuan and 19.103 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 is expected to be 13.081 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 13.1% [5] - The net profit for 2023 is projected to be 6.714 billion yuan, representing a significant increase of 416.7% compared to 2022 [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 25.4% in 2023, with a net margin of 51.3% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 8.20 yuan for 2023, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 2.2 [5] - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of -54.8% in 2023, with improvements anticipated in subsequent years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, Tuhu-W (9690.HK) [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of no less than 6.6 billion RMB in 2023, with a Non-IFRS net profit of at least 450 million RMB. The second half of 2023 shows a stronger profit trend, with a total net profit of at least 70 million RMB and a Non-IFRS net profit of at least 240 million RMB [2]. - The company is benefiting from the recovery in travel demand and the expansion of its workshop store network, which has effectively increased its customer base. The improvement in business scale and structure has led to an increase in gross margin, alongside effective cost control [2][3]. - Tuhu has introduced new franchise policies for workshop stores in 2024, offering various incentives for different city tiers to encourage expansion. The company anticipates adding over 1,000 new workshop stores annually from 2024 to 2025 [2]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth from 13.475 billion RMB in 2023 to 18.379 billion RMB in 2025, with adjusted net profits increasing from 451 million RMB to 1.504 billion RMB during the same period [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 13.475 billion RMB in 2023 to 18.379 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 16.7%, 17.2%, and 16.4% respectively [3]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 451 million RMB in 2023 to 1.504 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 109.3% and 200.9% [3]. - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.55 RMB in 2023 to 1.84 RMB in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 34 times to 10 times [3]. Balance Sheet Highlights - Total assets are expected to grow from 11.145 billion RMB in 2023 to 15.044 billion RMB in 2025, while total liabilities will increase from 28.804 billion RMB to 30.878 billion RMB [6]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents are projected to rise from 4.26 billion RMB in 2023 to 6.894 billion RMB in 2025 [6]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to turn positive, increasing from 948 million RMB in 2023 to 1.818 billion RMB in 2025 [7]. - The net increase in cash is projected to be 1.574 billion RMB in 2024 and 1.358 billion RMB in 2025 [7].

【途虎养车与华为签署全面合作协议】财联社2月20日电，途虎养车20日与华为签署全面合作协议，将在鸿蒙生态建设、数字化创新和全场景售后服务新业态探索等多个领域展开全面合作。途虎养车已启动鸿蒙原生应用开发，逐步适配原子化卡片展示等多项功能。早前，途虎养车还与华为云开启“云上”创新，推出基于华为云区块链技术的汽车配件溯源平台，为汽车配件在流通环节提供正品验真和防伪溯源认证，有力推动汽车配件流通规范、透明、高效发展。 ...

Financial Reporting - Tuhu Car Inc. will not separately prepare and send an interim report for the six months ended June 30, 2023, as the financial performance is included in the prospectus[1] - The financial results for the six months ended June 30, 2023, can be accessed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and Tuhu's official website[2]