Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tuhu, with a target price of 17.06 HKD [2] Core Views - Tuhu's revenue is primarily driven by individual consumers, with 80% of its income coming from this segment [1] - The company's gross margin improvement is attributed to scale effects, higher-margin maintenance services, and increased sales of proprietary products [1] - Tuhu's single-store model shows that franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with steady-state operations achieved after 3 years [1] - The report forecasts Tuhu's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 14.7/16.1/17.7 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 750/1190/1600 million RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, 50% of Tuhu's revenue came from tires and chassis components, while 44% came from maintenance services [1] - The gross profit contribution from tires and chassis components was 37%, while maintenance services contributed 40% [1] - Tuhu's revenue from individual consumers reached 11.265 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for 82.8% of total revenue [7] Gross Margin Analysis - Tuhu's gross margin increased from 7.4% in 2019 to 24.7% in 2023, driven by direct procurement and scale effects [11] - The maintenance business, with a gross margin of 32.4% in 2023, contributed 60% of the total gross profit [9] - Tuhu's proprietary and exclusive brands accounted for 68.3% of revenue in 2023, up from 22.2% in 2019 [16] Single-Store Model - Tuhu's stores typically reach steady-state operations after 3 years, with average store revenue increasing from 324,000 RMB in the first year to 775,000 RMB after 3 years [20] - The gross margin of stores increases from 21.6% in the first year to 25.7% after 3 years [20] - Franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with a store lifecycle of over 8 years [23] Competitive Landscape - Tuhu operates over 6,000 stores as of May 2024, significantly more than competitors like Tmall Auto Care and JD Auto Care [6] - Tuhu's supply chain includes 34 regional distribution centers and 511 front-end distribution centers, ensuring efficient logistics [56] - The company's user base reached 115 million registered users by the end of 2023, with a 60% repurchase rate [6] Industry Comparison - The US auto aftermarket leaders, AutoZone and O'Reilly, achieved 10-year revenue CAGRs of 6.7% and 9.0%, respectively, from 2013 to 2023 [81] - AutoZone and O'Reilly's store counts grew at CAGRs of 3.2% and 4.0%, respectively, during the same period [80] - Tuhu's growth trajectory is compared to these US leaders, with a focus on the potential for similar scale and profitability in China [78] Market Potential - China's average vehicle age is 6.2 years in 2022, expected to reach 8.0 years by 2027, indicating significant growth potential in the aftermarket [74] - The report highlights that 55% of vehicles in China are under 6 years old, and 66% have annual mileage below 10,000 km, suggesting untapped demand for aftermarket services [70]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 途虎-W(09690.HK) 24H1 业绩前瞻:行业需求承压,不改份额及 利润率提升趋势 2024 年 07 月 22 日 买入(维持) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------|----------|---------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11563 | 13606 | 14637 | 16864 | 19226 | | 同比(%) | (1.42) | 17.67 | 7.58 | 15.21 | 14.01 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (2,136.17) | 6,702.94 | 531.68 | 1,042.82 | 1,601.04 | | 同比(%) | - | - | (92.07) | 96.14 | 53.53 | | Non-IFRS ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 18.32 [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive aftermarket IAM sector, with a strong focus on market expansion and business structure optimization, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and profit [4][29]. - The automotive aftermarket is a trillion-yuan market with a fragmented structure that is gradually consolidating, providing opportunities for IAM players to increase their market share [4][18]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 15.88 billion, 18.73 billion, and 22.11 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.7%, 18.0%, and 18.02% [2][4]. Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the automotive aftermarket for over 10 years, focusing on tire and chassis components, automotive maintenance, and other automotive parts and services [4][8]. - It has established an integrated online and offline business model, leveraging its brand, management, and financial strengths to create a competitive moat [4][29]. Industry Analysis - The automotive aftermarket is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and average vehicle age [18][19]. - The market has historically been dominated by dealers, but the share of independent third-party players (IAM) is expected to rise as traditional dealers face challenges [21][24]. Competitive Landscape - The IAM sector currently has a low concentration, with the top five players holding only about 3% of the market share, indicating significant room for growth and consolidation [26][28]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share from traditional dealers due to its competitive pricing and rapid store expansion [24][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of approximately 18% from 2019 to 2023, and has recently turned profitable for the first time in 2023 [15][17]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, rising from 7% in 2019 to 25% in 2023, reflecting effective cost control and a shift towards higher-margin automotive maintenance services [17][29]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its presence in second-tier cities and optimize its business structure to enhance profitability [4][15]. - Key growth drivers include increasing registered users and transaction conversion rates, supported by the expansion of online orders [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Tuhu-W (09690 HK) with a target price of HKD 28 [1][9] Core Views - Tuhu is a leading internet-based auto service company in China with nearly 6000 stores (152 self-operated and 5757 franchised) as of 2023, ranking first in store count among all auto service providers in China [1] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 13 6 billion in 2023, ranking first in IAM store auto service revenue in 2022 [1] - Tuhu's main revenue comes from tires and chassis parts (40%) and car maintenance (36%) [1] - The Chinese auto service market exceeded RMB 1 2 trillion in 2022, with a 10% CAGR from 2018 to 2022 [2] - Tuhu has three competitive advantages in "goods, stores, and people": - Goods: High gross margin potential from self-controlled products (currently 26%, could reach over 50%) [2] - Stores: Strong store expansion capability with 93% profitable stores and 6-month ramp-up period for franchised stores [2] - People: Low user penetration rate (24%) but high retention rate (57% repurchase rate in Q1 2023) [2] Company Overview - Tuhu was founded in 2011 and has grown to become China's leading independent auto service brand with 5909 Tuhu Workshop stores and 19000 partner stores as of Q1 2023 [13] - The company has 115 million registered users and 19 3 million transacting users in 2023, with 10 2 million MAU in Q1 2023 [13] - Tuhu achieved revenue of RMB 13 6 billion in 2023, with gross profit of RMB 3 36 billion and gross margin of 24 7% [14] Industry Analysis - China's auto service market reached RMB 12 398 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a 9 0% CAGR to RMB 19 319 billion by 2027 [23] - Key demand drivers include car ownership, average vehicle age, and per-vehicle maintenance spending [23] - China's passenger car ownership reached 270 million in 2022, with per 1000 people ownership of 194, much lower than developed countries [25] - The average vehicle age in China is 6 2 years (2022), significantly lower than the US (12 2 years) and EU (12 3 years) [28] - NEV penetration in China reached 4 6% in 2022 and is expected to reach 20 5% by 2027 [26] Competitive Advantages - Tuhu has three main competitive advantages: 1) Product advantage: Potential for gross margin improvement through self-controlled products [2] 2) Store advantage: Strong store expansion capability with high standardization and profitability [2] 3) User advantage: Low penetration but high retention rate [2] - The company has built a comprehensive supply chain infrastructure with 34 regional warehouses and 511 front warehouses as of 2023 [54] - Tuhu's franchised stores have a 6-month ramp-up period and 93% profitability rate for stores open over 6 months [54] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 13 6 billion in 2023 to RMB 19 2 billion in 2026 [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 670 million in 2023 to RMB 1 47 billion in 2026 [3] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profit of RMB 884 million in 2024, RMB 1 28 billion in 2025, and RMB 1 67 billion in 2026 [9] Valuation - Based on a 30x PE multiple for 2024 earnings, the target market cap is HKD 22 6 billion, implying a target price of HKD 28 [9] - The valuation is supported by Tuhu's strong growth potential and profitability improvement during its rapid store expansion phase [9]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·专业零售(HS) 途虎-W（09690.HK） 车后 IAM 龙头的模式优势、扩张边界和盈 2024年 06月 11日 利方向 证券分析师 张良卫 买入（首次） 执业证书：S0600516070001 [Table_EPS] 021-60199793 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 营业总收入（百万元） 11563 13606 15437 17987 20606 证券分析师 黄细里 同比(%) (1.42) 17.67 13.46 16.52 14.56 归母净利润（百万元） (2,136.17) 6,702.94 523.07 1,028.28 1,576.58 执业证书：S0600520010001 同比(%) - - (92.20) 96.58 53.32 021-60199793 Non-IFRS净利润（百万元） -551.93 481.31 735.50 1,228.28 1,776.58 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 同比(%) - - 52.81 67.00 44.64 研究 ...

汽车/汽车服务 公 司 研 途虎-W（09690.HK） 从北美四大汽配连锁看途虎成长空间 究 2024年05月31日 ——港股公司深度报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 殷晟路（分析师） 陈诺（联系人） yinshenglu@kysec.cn chennuo@kysec.cn 日期 2024/5/31 证 书编号：S0790522080001 证书编号：S0790123070031 当前股价(港元) 25.600  对标北美四大汽配连锁，途虎的市占率和毛利率仍有较大上升空间 港 一年最高最低(港元) 37.700/9.010 北美汽配连锁AutoZone、O’Reilly、Advance Auto Parts、NAPA CR4 2021年门店 股 公 总市值(亿港元) 210.39 数量市占率高达49 %，竞争格局高度集中。 司 流通市值(亿港元) 210.39  AutoZone定位“社区商店”，直营门店数量最多，DIY占比超7成； 深 总股本(亿股) 8.22  O'Reilly坚持双重客户战略，受益于DIFM业务的高增速，市值反超第一； 度 报 流通港股(亿股) 8.22  Advance Auto ...

证券研究报告|港股公司深度研究报告 [Tabl2e0_2D4a年te]0 5月 27日 [ITabAleM_Titl市e] 场龙头，盈利能力持续提升 [途Tab虎le_T-itWle2(] 9690.HK) 评级及分析师信息 [►T a b汽le_车Su服mm务a连ry]锁 第一品牌，利润率快速提升 [评Ta级bl：e_ Rank] 增持 上次评级： 首次覆盖 1）截至2023 年底，公司拥有5909 家途虎工厂店，覆盖城市 目标价格(港元)： 超 300 个。23Q1 客户复购率57%，体现客户对产品和服务的认 可。 最新收盘价(港元)： 25.05 2）门店扩张带动收入稳健增长。2019-2023 年途虎工场店数量 [股Ta票bl代e_码Ba：se data] 9690 从 1423 家扩张至5909 家门店，CAGR32.94%；公司营业收入由 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： 37.7/9.01 2019 年的70亿元增长至2023 年的 136 亿元，CAGR17.9%。 总市值(亿港元) 205.87 3)经调整净利润于2023 年首次转正，达到4.81 亿元, 我们认 为利润率提升主要系规模化+ ...

投资逻辑 乘用车保有量和车龄的增长，汽车维保需求预计增加。独立后市 场服务供应商渠道(IAM)凭借广泛的门店分布和合理的价格，相 比 4s 店预计会获得更多流量倾斜。途虎在 IAM 汽车服务收入规 模和门店数量上均位列第一。新能源汽车渗透率的提升或带来行 业新挑战，其维保服务不同于燃油车，日常维护成本较低，但洗 美、改装等需求提升。途虎积极布局新能源工位改造、新能源维 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 保技师培养、加强产业链合作。 40.00 350 门店标准化保障网络可拓展性，向下沉市场渗透。公司 2023 年 35.00 300 250 门店数量5909 家，同比增长27%。其中自营途虎工场店152 家， 30.00 200 25.00 加盟途虎工场店 5757 家。2023 年新增门店数中 70%以上来自二 150 20.00 100 线及以下城市,未来预计自营店数量保持稳定，通过加盟店拓 15.00 50 展。据招股书，截至 2023Q1,公司综合毛利率、自营途虎工场 10.00 0 62 6 2 62 店、加盟途虎工场店、合作门店的毛利率分别为 25%、5.5%、 9 2 3 03 1 3 04 2 ...

证券研究报告 途虎-W（9690.HK）： IAM龙头发力万亿汽后蓝海市场，加快低 线城市布局，模式清晰业绩加速释放 股票投资评级：买入|上调 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading online-to-offline (O2O) automotive service platform in China, addressing key pain points in the automotive service industry [2] - The company operates a well-managed offline network of stores and technicians, providing high-quality and standardized in-store services [2] - The company has built a comprehensive automotive service platform that includes car owners, suppliers, service stores, and other participants [2] - As of the end of 2023, the company has 5,909 Tuhu Workshop stores nationwide, with 5,757 being franchised stores, covering all provincial-level administrative regions and over 300 cities [2] - The company has 115 million registered users, with over 19.3 million users placing orders on the platform in 2023, and an average of over 10 million monthly active users on the Tuhu Car Maintenance app [2] - The company's proprietary technology system supports digitalization of the supply chain and is coordinated through intelligent algorithms [2] - The company has over 800 R&D personnel and has developed a comprehensive automotive service technology support system [2] Business Model and Expansion - The company's asset-light business model enables rapid expansion, with a self-developed online platform supporting stable business operations [2] - The company's innovative franchise model allows for rapid expansion of its store network while ensuring service standardization and product quality [2] - As of March 31, 2023, the company has established the largest and most accurate automotive parts database in China, covering 286 brands and over 66,000 vehicle models, with a matching accuracy rate of 99.99% [2] - The company has strong bargaining power with upstream suppliers and high customer loyalty, with a repurchase rate of over 60% [2] Market Potential - The automotive aftermarket in China is a long-term growth opportunity, with the market size reaching RMB 1.2 trillion in 2022 [2] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing car ownership, mileage, and vehicle age [2] - The market is highly fragmented, with traditional IAM stores expected to increase their share from 46.6% in 2022 to 58.1% in 2027 [2] - The company's new business model addresses the inefficiencies of traditional IAM stores, such as poor user experience, complex supply chain layers, and inefficient fulfillment processes [2] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company achieved a turnaround in 2023, with revenue of RMB 13.6 billion, a YoY increase of 17.8%, and net profit of RMB 670.3 million [19] - The company's gross margin increased from 19.7% in 2022 to 24.7% in 2023, driven by the growth of self-owned and exclusive brands [4] - The company's net profit margin also improved, with adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) reaching RMB 481 million in 2023 [19] - The company's revenue structure has been optimized, with high-margin businesses such as car maintenance increasing their share [20] - The company's gross margin is expected to continue to rise, with forecasts of 26.0%, 26.7%, and 27.4% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's net profit is expected to reach RMB 671.1 million, RMB 1.114 billion, and RMB 1.547 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's 2025 PE ratio is 12X, compared to the average PE ratio of 21X for comparable companies, indicating significant upside potential [5] Industry Comparison - The US automotive aftermarket has seen strong performance from companies like AutoZone and O'Reilly, with AutoZone's revenue growing from USD 5.71 billion in 2005 to USD 17.46 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 6.4% [2] - AutoZone's net profit grew from USD 571 million in 2005 to USD 2.53 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 8.6% [2] - AutoZone's stock price has increased over 97 times since 2000, with an average PE (TTM) of 15.6X [2] - O'Reilly's revenue grew from USD 2.045 billion in 2005 to USD 15.812 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 12%, with net profit growing from USD 164 million to USD 2.347 billion, a CAGR of 15.9% [2] - O'Reilly's stock price has also increased over 97 times since 2000, with an average PE (TTM) of 21.9X [2] Key Assumptions - The company is expected to maintain an annual franchise store expansion of 1,000-1,200 stores, with franchise store numbers reaching 6,757, 7,957, and 9,157 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - Single-store revenue is expected to be RMB 1.9 million, RMB 1.875 million, and RMB 1.85 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, as the company expands into lower-tier cities [6] - Gross margin is expected to increase to 27%, 27.5%, and 28% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, driven by the growth of self-owned and exclusive brands [6] Investment Logic - Store expansion is the main driver of revenue growth, while the increase in self-owned and exclusive brands supports gross margin improvement [7] - The franchise model ensures low capital expenditure, and the company's market share in China is still far below that of AutoZone and O'Reilly in the US, indicating significant room for growth [7] - The company's gross margin is still lower than that of overseas leaders (over 50%), suggesting further upside potential [7]