Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic automotive aftermarket, actively expanding into the new energy sector [2] - The automotive service market in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and aging vehicles [2][18] - The company has established an integrated online and offline service platform, leading the industry in store count with 5,909 stores as of December 31, 2023 [2][7] - The company aims to expand its presence in lower-tier cities, with a target of reaching 8,909 stores by 2026 [2][34] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 700 million, 1.09 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.26, 11.08, and 7.75 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Automotive Service Platform - The company has developed a comprehensive online and offline automotive service platform, expanding its product and service offerings since its inception in 2011 [7] - The platform connects vehicle owners, suppliers, and service stores, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [7][21] 2. Automotive Service Market Potential - The automotive service market in China reached 1.24 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 10.1% from 2018 to 2022, and is expected to grow to 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027 [18] - The increase in vehicle ownership and average vehicle age is driving demand for automotive services, with the average age of vehicles projected to reach 8 years by 2027 [15][16] 3. Business Model and Growth - The company’s business model creates a positive feedback loop, enhancing user experience and driving growth through increased customer traffic and store expansion [30] - The number of registered users reached 115 million by the end of 2023, with a transaction user base of over 19.3 million, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [31] - The company plans to continue expanding its store network, particularly in lower-tier cities, to capture a larger market share [34] 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 14.64 billion, 16.20 billion, and 17.95 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The company’s gross margin has been improving, reaching 24.7% in 2023, driven by a higher proportion of automotive maintenance services [12][13]

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 15.90 港元 24.00↓ +50.9% 互联网 2024 年 8 月 12 日 途虎 (9690 HK) 客单价下降短期扰动收入增长，供应链优化下利润率提升趋势不变 我们调整了途虎 （9690 HK）的盈利预测及估值。我们认为公司将继续推进工 厂店拓展以及产品结构优化，预计全年稳步实现新增 1000 家工厂店目标以及 利润率的提升。但客单价下降超出预期，因此我们下调 2024 年利润 7%，目 标价从 26 港元下调至 24 港元，维持买入。 我们预计 2024 年上半年收入同比增 9%至 71 亿元（人民币，下同）。预计调 整后净利润 3.3 亿元，同比增 55%，对应净利润率 4.6%，同比提升 1.4 个百分 点。预计因客单价下降幅度超出预期，收入增长低于我们此前预期，公司通 过持续降本增效、优化产品结构带动利润率提升。预计上半年新开途虎工厂 店超过 400 家，稳步推进达成全年新开 1000 家门店目标，新开门店仍以下沉 地区为主。 预计 2024 年收入同比增 7%至 146 亿元，调整后净利润 7.4 亿元，均较我们此 前预期下调 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 16.24 HKD [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the automotive aftermarket is currently under pressure due to a trend of consumer downtrading, but there is optimism for long-term growth driven by the expansion of proprietary product categories and improved profitability [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from changes in the automotive market structure, particularly as traditional dealership supply shrinks and third-party service providers gain market share [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 14.558 billion, 16.013 billion, and 17.934 billion RMB for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 10%, and 12% [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: Revenue of 11,563 million RMB, Net Profit of -2,136 million RMB - 2023A: Revenue of 13,606 million RMB, Net Profit of 6,703 million RMB - 2024E: Revenue of 14,558 million RMB, Net Profit of 716 million RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 16,013 million RMB, Net Profit of 1,068 million RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 17,934 million RMB, Net Profit of 1,370 million RMB [1][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to be 8.26, 0.88, 1.31, and 1.69 RMB for 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1][5]. - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 16.7, 11.2, and 8.7 for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The automotive aftermarket is experiencing a decline in service visits, with a 1% year-on-year drop in the second quarter, indicating a challenging macro environment [2]. - The company is expanding its store presence in lower-tier cities, which is anticipated to drive steady business growth [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability through the continuous increase in proprietary product offerings and enhanced supply chain negotiation capabilities [2][3].

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司深度|途虎-W（09690） 领航 O2O 汽车服务，规模效应释放利润 弹性 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月11日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司定位独立汽车服务供应商，通过一体化线上线下的模式提供标准化、高质量的服务。上游 供应商方面，公司作为行业龙头，凭借规模优势拥有较强的议价能力，成本优势明显；下游需 求端方面，公司通过线上"途虎养车"APP 和线下自营途虎工场店、加盟途虎工场店以及合作 门店 3 种类型的服务门店，打造出一个连接了包括车主、供应商、服务门店等在内的综合汽 车服务平台。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522060001 邓文慧 郭家玮 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 44 港股公司|公司深度 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月11日 途虎-W(09690) 领航 O2O 汽车服务，规模效应释放利润弹性 | --- | --- | |------------|--------------| | 行 业： | 商贸零售 | | 投资评级： | 买入（首次） | | 当前价格： | 15.58 港元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the expected revenue growth and profitability improvements [1]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 7.11 to 7.17 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 10%, with an adjusted net profit of about 330 to 340 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 4.6% to 4.7% [1]. - The company's store expansion is a key driver for revenue growth, with an expected net increase of about 1,000 stores in 2024. However, short-term average transaction value (ATV) is under pressure due to weak domestic consumption and longer replacement cycles for products like tires and engine oil [1]. - Effective cost control and improved management efficiency are expected to enhance profitability, with a projected gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points in 2024 [1]. - The independent automotive aftermarket is expanding, and the company, as a leading Independent Aftermarket (IAM) player, is well-positioned to benefit from this growth [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 13.6 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 14.89 billion yuan in 2024, 16.68 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.76 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 9%, 12%, and 13% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 670.3 million yuan in 2023, with a significant drop to 85.2 million yuan in 2024, followed by recoveries to 135.7 million yuan in 2025 and 206 million yuan in 2026 [2]. Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratios are 1.24 for 2023, 13.62 for 2024, 8.56 for 2025, and 5.64 for 2026, indicating a significant valuation change over the forecast period [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 24.7% in 2023 to 30.55% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 49.28% in 2023 to 10.98% in 2026 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage and scale effects in the IAM sector, with a focus on product quality and user demand [1]. - The company is enhancing its brand portfolio and increasing the proportion of its own brands, which is expected to cater to the demand for cost-effective products [1].

股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 途虎-W 恒生指数 -100% -50% 0% 50% 2023-09-26 2024-01-09 2024-04-23 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（港元） 16.200 总股本/流通股本（亿股）8.12 / 7.44 总市值/流通市值（亿港 | --- | --- | |--------------------|----------------------| | | 132/ 121 | | 元） | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 37.70 / 9.01 | | 资产负债率(%) | 62.10 | | 市盈率 | 16.5 | | | 意像架构投资(香港)有 | | 第一大股东 | | | | 限公司 | 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 研究助理:殷先伟 SAC 登记编号:S1340123080022 Email:yinxianwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《途虎-W（9690.HK）： IAM 龙头发力万 亿汽后蓝海市场，加快 ...

海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 市占率提升逻辑稳健，利润率持续优化 途虎-W(9690) 商业服务与商业用品 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 —— 途虎 2024H1 业绩前瞻 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.06 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|-----------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 宋小寒(研究助理) | | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880122070054 | 本报告导读： 途虎在规模、供应链及门店管控等方面竞争优势显著，看好公司长期市占率提升空 间。 投资要点： [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tuhu, with a target price of 17.06 HKD [2] Core Views - Tuhu's revenue is primarily driven by individual consumers, with 80% of its income coming from this segment [1] - The company's gross margin improvement is attributed to scale effects, higher-margin maintenance services, and increased sales of proprietary products [1] - Tuhu's single-store model shows that franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with steady-state operations achieved after 3 years [1] - The report forecasts Tuhu's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 14.7/16.1/17.7 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 750/1190/1600 million RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, 50% of Tuhu's revenue came from tires and chassis components, while 44% came from maintenance services [1] - The gross profit contribution from tires and chassis components was 37%, while maintenance services contributed 40% [1] - Tuhu's revenue from individual consumers reached 11.265 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for 82.8% of total revenue [7] Gross Margin Analysis - Tuhu's gross margin increased from 7.4% in 2019 to 24.7% in 2023, driven by direct procurement and scale effects [11] - The maintenance business, with a gross margin of 32.4% in 2023, contributed 60% of the total gross profit [9] - Tuhu's proprietary and exclusive brands accounted for 68.3% of revenue in 2023, up from 22.2% in 2019 [16] Single-Store Model - Tuhu's stores typically reach steady-state operations after 3 years, with average store revenue increasing from 324,000 RMB in the first year to 775,000 RMB after 3 years [20] - The gross margin of stores increases from 21.6% in the first year to 25.7% after 3 years [20] - Franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with a store lifecycle of over 8 years [23] Competitive Landscape - Tuhu operates over 6,000 stores as of May 2024, significantly more than competitors like Tmall Auto Care and JD Auto Care [6] - Tuhu's supply chain includes 34 regional distribution centers and 511 front-end distribution centers, ensuring efficient logistics [56] - The company's user base reached 115 million registered users by the end of 2023, with a 60% repurchase rate [6] Industry Comparison - The US auto aftermarket leaders, AutoZone and O'Reilly, achieved 10-year revenue CAGRs of 6.7% and 9.0%, respectively, from 2013 to 2023 [81] - AutoZone and O'Reilly's store counts grew at CAGRs of 3.2% and 4.0%, respectively, during the same period [80] - Tuhu's growth trajectory is compared to these US leaders, with a focus on the potential for similar scale and profitability in China [78] Market Potential - China's average vehicle age is 6.2 years in 2022, expected to reach 8.0 years by 2027, indicating significant growth potential in the aftermarket [74] - The report highlights that 55% of vehicles in China are under 6 years old, and 66% have annual mileage below 10,000 km, suggesting untapped demand for aftermarket services [70]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 途虎-W(09690.HK) 24H1 业绩前瞻:行业需求承压,不改份额及 利润率提升趋势 2024 年 07 月 22 日 买入(维持) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------|----------|---------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11563 | 13606 | 14637 | 16864 | 19226 | | 同比(%) | (1.42) | 17.67 | 7.58 | 15.21 | 14.01 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (2,136.17) | 6,702.94 | 531.68 | 1,042.82 | 1,601.04 | | 同比(%) | - | - | (92.07) | 96.14 | 53.53 | | Non-IFRS ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 18.32 [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive aftermarket IAM sector, with a strong focus on market expansion and business structure optimization, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and profit [4][29]. - The automotive aftermarket is a trillion-yuan market with a fragmented structure that is gradually consolidating, providing opportunities for IAM players to increase their market share [4][18]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 15.88 billion, 18.73 billion, and 22.11 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.7%, 18.0%, and 18.02% [2][4]. Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the automotive aftermarket for over 10 years, focusing on tire and chassis components, automotive maintenance, and other automotive parts and services [4][8]. - It has established an integrated online and offline business model, leveraging its brand, management, and financial strengths to create a competitive moat [4][29]. Industry Analysis - The automotive aftermarket is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and average vehicle age [18][19]. - The market has historically been dominated by dealers, but the share of independent third-party players (IAM) is expected to rise as traditional dealers face challenges [21][24]. Competitive Landscape - The IAM sector currently has a low concentration, with the top five players holding only about 3% of the market share, indicating significant room for growth and consolidation [26][28]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share from traditional dealers due to its competitive pricing and rapid store expansion [24][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of approximately 18% from 2019 to 2023, and has recently turned profitable for the first time in 2023 [15][17]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, rising from 7% in 2019 to 25% in 2023, reflecting effective cost control and a shift towards higher-margin automotive maintenance services [17][29]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its presence in second-tier cities and optimize its business structure to enhance profitability [4][15]. - Key growth drivers include increasing registered users and transaction conversion rates, supported by the expansion of online orders [4][14].