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小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK)2025年三季报点评:Q3业绩符合预期 AI业务布局持续完善
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 03:57
Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q3 2025 earnings that met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by new model deliveries [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [1] - Automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Service and other income amounted to 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% [1] - Q3 2025 net loss narrowed to 380 million yuan from 480 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan [1] - Gross margin improved, with a comprehensive gross margin of 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Automotive gross margin was 13.1%, slightly down due to product upgrades [1] Cost Management - R&D expense ratio for Q3 was 11.9%, showing a decrease of 4.2 and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively [1] - Selling, administrative, and general expense ratio was 12.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 percentage points [1] Sales Volume - Q2 2025 wholesale sales reached 116,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 156,000 yuan [1] AI Business Development - Xiaopeng is advancing its AI business with clear implementation plans across various dimensions, including intelligent driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying cars [2] - The second-generation VLA model aims to enhance reasoning efficiency and response speed [2] - A partnership with Gaode for Robotaxi services is established, with plans to launch three models in 2026 [2] - The new generation IRON robot will focus on guide and shopping scenarios, with deployment expected in 2026 [2] - Plans for flying cars include test flights in 2026 and global deliveries in the second half of 2026 [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 92%, 79%, and 43% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan [3] - EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 26 and 15 for 2026 and 2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to strengthening AI competitiveness [3]
小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK):看好强势产品周期 物理AI商业化推进中
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 03:57
机构:国盛证券 海外市场来看,销售、生产、研发一片向好。1)汽车销售方面,Q1-3,小鹏汽车海外交付量达到 29706 辆 ,9月销量首次突破5000 台,同比增长79%。2)渠道方面,截至今年8 月 ,小鹏在全球已经 签约超119 家经销商,门店从去年150 家增长至275 家。3)生产方面,小鹏汽车首个欧洲本地化的生产 项目位于奥地利的格拉茨的麦格纳工厂正式启动,首批小鹏 G6 和 G9 顺利量产下线。4)研发方面,小 鹏汽车在德国慕尼黑的研发中心已经启用。从成长性上看,海外市场方兴未艾,小鹏汽车当前在海外的 主销车型包括G6/G9/X9 等,尽管出海成绩优秀,但实际上欧洲市场更偏好尺寸更小的车型。我们认为 随着P7+及Mona SUV 在明年出口销售,小鹏汽车海外汽车销售将再创佳绩。 VLA 2.0 有望带动小鹏汽车智驾能力断档领先。小鹏汽车在11 月5 日科技日上正式宣布了最新一代的智 驾模型VLA 2.0。用于VLA 2.0 的数据训练量接近1 亿clips,相当于人类司机驾驶65,000 年才能遇到的极 限场景总和。 基于VLA 2.0,小鹏汽车即将发布「小路NGP」功能,显著提升复杂小路与混行环 ...
小鹏汽车-W(9868.HK):Q3毛利率突破20%创历史新高
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 03:57
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 20.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120%, and a narrowing of net losses [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 20.4 billion yuan, up 102% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 380 million yuan, which is a 79% reduction in losses year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 54.5 billion yuan, with a net loss of 1.5 billion yuan, a 66% year-on-year reduction in losses [1]. Gross Margin and Cost Control - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 20.1%, marking a significant increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The automotive gross margin was 13.1%, with a year-on-year improvement for eight consecutive quarters [2]. - The company achieved a significant scale effect with Q3 deliveries of 116,000 vehicles, a 149% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. Product Development and Future Outlook - The company is set to launch the new model, the Xiaopeng X9, which features advanced technology and is expected to achieve high sales, particularly in northern regions [2]. - The company plans to expand its range of extended-range vehicles, potentially introducing seven new models by 2026 [2]. - The humanoid robot IRON was unveiled, showcasing enhanced human-like capabilities and is expected to enter mass production by the end of 2026 [3]. Valuation and Revenue Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 77.2 billion yuan, a 9% decrease, while maintaining projections of 127.6 billion yuan and 153.9 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [3]. - The company has set a target price of 122.71 HKD, slightly down from the previous 126.08 HKD, while maintaining a "buy" rating [3].
小鹏汽车(09868.HK)2025年Q3业绩点评:大众服务收入超预期 整体毛利率超20% 持续减亏
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 03:57
Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.1%, which is a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8 percentage points [1] - The net loss narrowed to 380 million yuan, a year-on-year improvement of 1.43 billion yuan, while the Non-GAAP net loss was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 1.38 billion yuan [1] Automotive Business - The total delivery volume for Q3 2025 reached a record high of 116,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1] - The revenue from the automotive business was 18.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1] - The average revenue per vehicle was 176,000 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.8% [1] - The gross margin for the automotive business was 13.1%, a year-on-year increase of 4.5 percentage points, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.2 percentage points due to product upgrades [1] Service Revenue - The service business revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3% [2] - The gross margin for the service business was 74.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.1 percentage points [2] Cost Management - R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were 2.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1% [2] - Selling and General expenses were 2.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.0% [2] - The company maintained a cash reserve of 48.33 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 760 million yuan [2] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects delivery volumes between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [2] - Projected revenue for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [2] Strategic Developments - The company is positioned for a strong new car cycle in 2025, with multiple new models expected to enhance sales [3] - The integration of AI technology is anticipated to redefine the automotive landscape, with advancements in autonomous driving and the introduction of new AI applications [3] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 77.3 billion and 130.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 1.9X and 1.1X [3]
小鹏汽车第100万台整车下线
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-11-21 02:52
人民财讯11月21日电,11月21日,小鹏汽车迎来第100万台整车下线。从1到第50万台整车下线,小鹏汽 车用了82个月;从50万到第100万台整车下线,小鹏汽车只用了14个月。2025年1—10月,小鹏汽车累计 交付达355209台,同比增长190%。 ...
何小鹏:小鹏汽车迎来第100万台整车下线
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-11-21 02:49
Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors' Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng announced at the Guangzhou Auto Show that the Xiaopeng X9 Super Extended Range version broke the historical daily order record within one hour, with northern region orders exceeding 50% for the first time [1] - The Xiaopeng P7+ is set to officially launch in overseas markets in January 2026, with plans to introduce three new models internationally in the same year [1] - Xiaopeng Motors celebrated the production of its 1 millionth vehicle, achieving this milestone in just 14 months after reaching 500,000 units, compared to 82 months for the first 500,000 units [1]
小鹏汽车-W续跌近4% 本周股价累跌两成 高盛称短期内销售动能或较为温和
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 02:40
Core Viewpoint - Xpeng Motors' stock has declined nearly 20% this week, with a current price of 78.8 HKD, amid concerns over slowing sales growth and increased market competition following the launch of the new X9 extended-range model [1][1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xpeng Motors' stock fell by 3.73% to 78.8 HKD, with a trading volume of 880 million HKD [1]. - The stock has cumulatively dropped nearly 20% this week [1]. Group 2: New Product Launch - The Xpeng X9 extended-range version was officially launched on November 20, with prices ranging from 309,800 to 329,800 RMB, offering two models differentiated by their assisted driving capabilities [1]. - The new model incorporates "Xpeng Kunpeng Super Extended Range Technology," utilizing an 800V high-voltage platform and 5C fast charging technology [1]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Goldman Sachs reported that Xpeng's Q3 performance met expectations, but the Q4 revenue guidance is likely to fall short due to slowing sales growth and intensified market competition [1]. - Despite short-term sales momentum being relatively mild and a limited number of new model releases, Xpeng is expected to outperform peers in seasonal performance in Q1 next year, with plans to launch three extended-range electric vehicle versions (G6, G7, P7+) [1]. - Management comments on pre-order data for the X9 suggest that orders for the extended-range versions may be three times higher than those for pure electric vehicles [1].
港股异动 | 小鹏汽车-W(09868)续跌近4% 本周股价累跌两成 高盛称短期内销售动能或较为温和
智通财经网· 2025-11-21 02:36
Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors (09868) has seen a nearly 4% decline in stock price, accumulating a 20% drop this week, attributed to market competition and slowing sales growth despite the recent launch of the X9 extended-range model [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the latest update, Xiaopeng Motors' stock is down 3.73%, trading at HKD 78.8, with a trading volume of HKD 880 million [1] - The stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 20% this week [1] Group 2: New Product Launch - On November 20, Xiaopeng officially launched the X9 extended-range version, priced between CNY 309,800 and CNY 329,800, with two models differing mainly in driving assistance capabilities [1] - The new model incorporates "Xiaopeng Kunpeng Super Extended Range Technology," utilizing an 800V high-voltage platform and 5C fast charging technology [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that Xiaopeng's Q3 performance met expectations, but the Q4 revenue guidance is likely to fall short due to slowing sales growth and increased market competition [1] - Despite short-term sales momentum being relatively mild and limited new model releases, Xiaopeng is expected to outperform peers in seasonal performance in Q1 next year, with plans to launch three extended-range electric vehicle versions (G6, G7, P7+) [1] - Management comments on pre-order data for the X9 suggest that orders for the extended-range version may be three times higher than those for the pure electric version [1]
港股开盘再度走低,资金近期密集流入港股科技ETF
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 02:27
近期港股限售股解禁受到投资者关注。宁德时代H股昨日解禁,盘中股价大跌8.75%。下周将有三花智 控H股、恒瑞医药H股解禁,12 月还有海天味业解禁,这可能会对股价造成压力。自国庆后高点来,港 股通科技指数回调16%,恒生科技指数回调超18%。 从资金流入表现来看,恒生科技/港股科技/港股通互联网类持续受到资金流入,其中港股科技 ETF(159751)近4天获得连续资金净流入,最高单日获得2079.57万元净流入,合计"吸金"5063.49万元, 日均净流入达1265.87万元。 展望后市,机构指出:与以往不同,今年11-12月主要机构投资者的兑现压力已经前置释放,12月中旬 之前出现系统性抛压的可能性很低,因此即使不考虑经济会议预期,在险资年底集中推仓位的环境下, 指数也是震荡偏上行的中性预期。 港股科技ETF(159751),场外联接(A:021294;C:021295;I:022884)。 数据显示,截至2025年10月31日,中证港股通科技指数(931573)前十大权重股分别为阿里巴巴- W(09988)、腾讯控股(00700)、中芯国际(00981)、小米集团-W(01810)、比亚迪股份(01211 ...
直击车展|何小鹏:小鹏汽车迎来第100万台整车下线
Xin Lang Ke Ji· 2025-11-21 02:04
Core Insights - The Guangzhou Auto Show 2025 opened today, featuring a speech by Xiaopeng Motors' Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The Xiaopeng X9 Super Extended Range version set a record for daily orders, with northern regions accounting for over 50% of total orders for the first time [3] - Xiaopeng Motors achieved a significant milestone by producing its 1 millionth vehicle, taking only 14 months to reach this figure after the 500,000th vehicle, compared to 82 months for the first 500,000 [3] Group 2: Product Launches - The Xiaopeng P7+ is set to officially launch in overseas markets in January 2026, with three new models planned for international release that year [3] - The recently launched Xiaopeng X9 Extended Range version has a starting price of 309,800 yuan for the 1602Max version and 329,800 yuan for the 1602Ultra version [3]