配置丰富价格超预期，迎来M03 Max智驾周期。在本次新品发布会中，公司发布了Max版本车型，并将 此前的Air版本升级为Plus版本，Max相较于此前的预售价15.58 万元下调1.6 万元，与同配置Plus版本价 差1 万元。整体来看，我们认为新车型延续公司打造热销产品的思路，即通过有竞争力的定价、标配丰 富的产品配置和智能驾驶功能，让消费者实现科技平权和舒适的产品体验。此外我们还想强调，Max车 型的独特性在于：1）国内15 万元价格带内唯一搭载双Orin芯片，和唯一可实现全场景高阶辅助驾驶能 力的车型；2）Max版本车型的目标客群年轻化、对辅助驾驶接受度和付费意愿更高，我们预计Max版 本的购买比例有望超出市场预期。根据公司官方微博披露订单数据，MONA两个版本的车型上市1 小时 大定数量为12566 台，超过去年MONA M03 上市同期，其中Max版订单占比83%，符合我们预期。 强产品周期持续，海外市场进展积极。根据乘联会数据，公司1-4 月的月销量均突破3 万辆，延续了强 势产品周期。在新车型上市带动下，我们预计公司后续的季度销量及盈利能力有望持续环比提升。公司 产品周期强劲且成本、费用控制持 ...

维持"增持" 评级。考虑到公司强势产品周期开启，智能化属性突出，我们预计公司2025/26/27 年营业收 入为909/1303/1527 亿元，归母净利润为-11/32/67 亿元。参考可比公司，我们给予公司2025 年1.9 倍 PS，对应目标价98.58 港元（按1 港元=0.92 人民币汇率换算）。维持"增持"评级。 MONA M03 新增Plus 和Max 版本。本次发布会推出了4 个配置，Plus 版515/620km 分别为11.98/12.98 万元，Max 版502/600km 分别为12.98/13.98 万元。MONA 瞄准年轻群体，在外观上强调颜值，内饰强 调舒适，包括主驾三气袋腰托（带腰部舒缓按摩）、电容方向盘（含加热功能）。 Max 版本承袭公司智能化的优势，在15 万元级别开启"科技平权"。 MONA M03 Max 在15 万元级别落地智能辅助驾驶，是同档唯一搭载双Orin-X 芯片的车型，算力高达 508TOPS。Max 版本的城区智能辅助驾驶可以不限路线，不用记忆。不限里程。此外，Max 版本还推 出 "人机共驾"，做到智能辅助驾驶适应驾驶者风格，NGP 不和驾驶员抢控制权 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - On May 28, 2025, the company launched the MONA M03 MAX version, which includes two models: the 502 Long Range Max priced at 129,800 yuan and the 600 Ultra Long Range Max priced at 139,800 yuan. These models feature the full-version AI Tianji system and Turing driving assistance, achieving the strongest urban intelligent driving assistance capabilities in their class. The company is expected to accelerate sales due to a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems. Financial performance is anticipated to improve continuously due to scale enhancement, cost reduction from platforms and technologies, and the expansion of software profitability models alongside ongoing international growth [2][4][9]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The MONA M03 MAX version was officially launched on May 28, 2025, featuring two models with prices of 129,800 yuan and 139,800 yuan, equipped with advanced AI systems and driving assistance technologies [4]. Sales and Financial Projections - The expected delivery volume for Q2 2025 is between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5%. Projected revenue for this period is between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.7% to 130.5%. The company anticipates a strong new vehicle cycle with multiple new models set to launch, which is expected to enhance sales further [6][9]. Competitive Advantage - The MONA M03 Max is the first in its class to feature dual Orin-X chips, providing a computing power of 508 TOPS, significantly surpassing competitors. The intelligent driving capabilities are designed to adapt to driver styles, allowing for seamless control transfer between the driver and the vehicle [9]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a single-quarter profit turnaround by Q4 2025, with an overall positive cash flow for the year. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 99.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.3X, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance as the company enters a new vehicle cycle [9].

小鹏汽车(09868.HK)：小鹏MONA M03新版本，潮玩上市，售价11.98万元起。 ...

机构：国联民生证券 研究员：高登/于健 事件 2025 年5 月21 日，小鹏汽车发布第一季度财报。2025Q1 实现营收158.1 亿元，同比增长141.5%，实现 净利润-6.6 亿元，同环比减亏7.1/6.7 亿元，亏损缩窄。 优质车型保证交付及应收，新车周期持续向上小鹏汽车2025Q1 交付车型9.4 万辆，同比增长330.8%， 环比提升2.7%。实现汽车业务收入143.7 亿元，同比增长159.2%，单车ASP 为15.3 万元。Mona M03、 P7+等强势新车型交付良好，销量提升是营业收入高增的关键。2025Q1 实现营业收入158.1 亿元，同比 增长141.5%。2025Q2 新车周期延续，G6、G9 改款，全新X9等车型上市后销量有望高增，同时Mona M03 Max 将在5 月发布，小鹏汽车预计2025Q2 交付10.2-10.8 万辆，对应总收入175-187 亿元。 毛利率改善费用控制良好，小鹏汽车盈利曙光或至小鹏汽车2025Q1 毛利率为15.6%，同比/环比 +2.7pct/+1.2pct，其中汽车销售业务为10.5%，同比/环比+5.0pct/0.5pct，毛利率的持续改善 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with a net loss of 660 million yuan, significantly narrowing the loss compared to previous quarters. The company expects vehicle sales to reach 524,000, 786,000, and 966,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 139.2%, 61.7%, and 24.6% [4][14]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company delivered 94,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 330.8%, with automotive business revenue of 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 153,000 yuan. The company anticipates Q2 2025 deliveries between 102,000 and 108,000 vehicles, leading to total revenue of 17.5 to 18.7 billion yuan [12][14]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The automotive sales gross margin was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [13][14]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan in 2025, 5.99 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.42 billion yuan in 2027. The introduction of high-quality models is anticipated to drive a turning point in sales, while advancements in intelligent driving technology are expected to support a financial turnaround [14][15]. Market Expansion - The company has expanded its sales network to 690 stores across 223 cities and operates 2,115 self-owned charging stations. The upcoming launch of the Mona M03 Max is expected to penetrate the 150,000 yuan price segment, and the company has received over 1,500 pre-orders for the 2025 model X9 in various Asia-Pacific regions [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant sales growth driven by new model launches, despite a challenging industry environment [1][2][3]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales of 94,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 330.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [1]. - The new models, Mona M03 and P7+, contributed significantly to sales, with 47,000 and 24,000 units sold respectively, accounting for 75.5% of total sales in the quarter [2]. Financial Metrics - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 15.81 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.8% [1]. - The average revenue per vehicle was 153,000 yuan, down 39.8% year-on-year and 4.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin improved to 15.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 percentage points [1]. Future Outlook - The company has set a delivery guidance of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles for Q2 2025, which would be a record high [2]. - The introduction of new models such as G6 and G9, along with the upcoming M03 Max version, is expected to further enhance sales and profitability [3]. - The company anticipates total sales of 550,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 190% [3]. Technological Advancements - The company is set to deploy its self-developed Turing chip in Q2, which is designed to optimize cost control and enhance the capabilities of its vehicles [3]. - The Turing chip boasts processing power 3-7 times that of current mainstream AI chips, specifically designed for L4 autonomous driving [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company has revised its revenue projections for 2025-2027 upwards, with expected revenues of 95.9 billion, 117.2 billion, and 135.5 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company has also been increased, with estimates of 400 million, 2.8 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan for the same period [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 15.81 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.8%. The gross margin reached 15.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net loss was 660 million, narrowing by 700 million year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net loss was 430 million, a reduction of 980 million year-on-year. The company's smart driving capabilities remain leading, and with a strong new vehicle cycle, combined with channel reforms and enhanced marketing systems, sales are expected to accelerate [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the automotive business generated revenue of 14.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 159.2%, with a delivery volume of 94,000 vehicles, up 330.8% year-on-year. The average revenue per vehicle was 168,000. The delivery volume structure showed significant contributions from models MONA M03, P7+, G6, and G9, with respective deliveries of 47,000, 24,000, 13,000, and 5,600 vehicles, accounting for 50.1%, 25.4%, 14.0%, and 6.0% of total deliveries. The automotive gross margin was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][9]. Service Revenue - The service business revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.44 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5%. The service gross margin was 66.4%, up 12.4 percentage points year-on-year and 6.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The high gross margin from the service business significantly enhanced the overall service gross margin [9]. Cost and Expenses - The company experienced a significant increase in sales volume, which diluted the expense ratio. In Q1 2025, R&D expenses were 1.98 billion, up 46.7% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5%. Selling and general expenses were 1.95 billion, up 40.2% year-on-year, with a selling and general expense ratio of 12.3% [9]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the expected delivery volume is between 102,000 and 108,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 237.7% to 257.5%. Expected revenue is projected to be between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 115.7% to 130.5%. The strong new vehicle cycle and continuous monthly sales growth, along with the successful launch of new models like G6 and G9, are anticipated to sustain sales momentum [9].

上 市 公 司 汽车 2025 年 05 月 24 日 小鹏汽车-W (09868) ——新车销量强劲，毛利率略超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 82.05 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8557.64 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 106.00/25.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,561.86 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,554.85 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0886 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, driven by scale effects and effective cost control, with a revenue of 15.81 billion yuan and a Non-GAAP loss of 430 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP loss of 430 million yuan [1] - The gross margin improved to 15.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company delivered 94,008 vehicles in Q1, setting a new quarterly sales record [1] - Free cash flow turned positive in Q1, indicating improved financial health [1] Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The company plans to launch several new models, including the Mona M03 Max on May 28, which features advanced smart driving capabilities [1] - Upcoming models include the G7 SUV in June and a new generation P7 luxury coupe in Q3, with plans for mass production of the Kunpeng super extended-range electric vehicle in Q4 [1] - The company aims to enhance average selling price (ASP) and profitability through competitive pricing and rich product configurations [1] Group 3: AI and Overseas Market Development - The company is developing a comprehensive AI ecosystem, with plans to launch the fifth-generation humanoid robot equipped with the Turing chip by 2026 [2] - In Q1, the company achieved over 370% year-on-year sales growth in overseas markets and opened over 40 new overseas stores [2] - The company plans to localize production for the Xiaopeng G6 and Xiaopeng X9 models in Indonesia by the second half of 2025, targeting a doubling of overseas sales for the year [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Current stock prices correspond to 1.6x P/S for Hong Kong shares and 1.8x P/S for US shares in 2025 [2] - The company maintains a target price of 108 HKD for Hong Kong shares and 28 USD for US shares, indicating potential upside of 39% and 26% respectively [2]