Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for XPeng-W (09868 HK) with a target price of HKD 57 8 and USD 14 9 for XPEV N [2][3] Core Views - XPeng is in a strong product cycle with improving profitability expected by 2025 [2] - New models like Mona M03 and P7+ are driving sales growth with Q3 revenue reaching RMB 10 1 billion up 18% YoY and 25% QoQ [2] - Q3 gross margin exceeded expectations at 15 3% up 1 3pct QoQ driven by cost reductions and economies of scale [2] - The company aims to achieve breakeven at the operational level by the end of 2025 [2] - XPeng's overseas profitability is higher than domestic due to its premium positioning in international markets [2] Financial Performance - Q3 vehicle sales revenue was RMB 8 8 billion up 12% YoY while service and other revenue surged 91% YoY to RMB 1 3 billion [2] - Q3 net loss narrowed by 53% YoY to RMB 1 8 billion with a net loss margin of 18% [2] - Non-GAAP net loss was RMB 1 53 billion with a net loss margin of 15 2% [2] - Q3 vehicle sales gross margin improved to 8 6% up 2 2pct QoQ while service and other gross margin rose to 60 1% up 5 9pct QoQ [2] Product and Sales Outlook - Mona M03 and P7+ are expected to drive monthly sales to record highs in 2025 [2] - XPeng plans to launch 4 new models and multiple facelifts in 2025 [2] - The company targets monthly sales of 30 000 units in November 2024 and P7+ deliveries of over 10 000 units in December 2024 [2] Technological Advancements - XPeng introduced the Kunpeng Super Electric System featuring next-generation range-extending technology [2] - The company plans to enhance its intelligent driving capabilities with the Tianji 5 5 system aiming for one intervention per 100 kilometers by Q4 2025 [2] Overseas Expansion - Q3 overseas sales accounted for 15% of total sales with XPeng leading Chinese brands in the European mid-to-high-end EV market [2] - The overseas sales network expanded to 30+ countries and 110+ stores by Q3 2024 with plans to reach 140+ stores by end of 2024 and 300+ stores by 2025 [2] Financial Projections - XPeng is expected to sell 190 000 units in 2024 400 000 units in 2025 and 450 000 units in 2026 [2] - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 40 8 billion in 2024 RMB 73 2 billion in 2025 and RMB 88 2 billion in 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is forecasted at -14% in 2024 -5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with target prices set at $15.2 for XPEV.US (potential upside of 22%) and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK (potential upside of 18%) [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is entering a strong product cycle, with expected vehicle deliveries reaching 30,000 units in November, supported by strong order performance for models M03 and P7+. This positions the company for significant sales growth in 2024 and 2025, with revised sales forecasts of 188,000 units and 400,000 units respectively [1][2]. - The automotive gross margin has shown continuous improvement, reaching 8.6% in Q3 2024, benefiting from product mix enhancements and supply chain cost reductions. The company anticipates a 21% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The company plans to launch four new models and several refreshed versions next year, aiming to sustain sales growth. Additionally, overseas sales have increased by approximately 70% quarter-over-quarter, contributing to 15% of total sales [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 40.53 billion in 2024, RMB 74.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 140.165 billion in 2026, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 32%, 84%, and 88% respectively [4][16]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 14.2% in 2024, 15.6% in 2025, and 16.9% in 2026, reflecting the positive impact of new platform models [4][16]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 18.5 billion in Q3 2024, although this represents a significant year-over-year decrease [2][4]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.3x for automotive sales and 2.1x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of $15.2 for XPEV.US and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK [3][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a profitability inflection point driven by a rich model matrix in 2025, cost reduction through platformization, and increased export volume [6][7] - Revenue estimates for 2024 have been slightly adjusted down to 41.03 billion yuan, while 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates have been raised to 95.56 billion yuan and 122.06 billion yuan respectively [6] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to -5.38 billion yuan, -2.23 billion yuan, and 339 million yuan respectively, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 30,676 in 2023 to 95,558 in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 132.9% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from -9,444 million yuan in 2023 to -2,231 million yuan in 2025, with a return to profitability in 2026 [7] - Gross margin is projected to increase from 1.5% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and operational efficiency [7] - The company is expected to achieve a quarterly breakeven point by the end of 2025, supported by new model launches and export growth [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a profitability turning point driven by a rich model matrix in 2025, cost reduction through platform technology, and increased export volume [6] - Revenue estimates for 2024 have been slightly adjusted down to 41.03 billion yuan, while 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates have been raised to 95.56 billion yuan and 122.06 billion yuan respectively [6] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to -5.38 billion yuan, -2.23 billion yuan, and 339 million yuan respectively, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [6] - The current stock price of 50.35 HKD corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 2.2, 0.9, and 0.7 for 2024-2026 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2022 was 26.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.0%. The revenue for 2023 is projected at 30.68 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.2% growth [7] - The company reported a Non-GAAP net loss of 15.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024, which was better than market expectations [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 15.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to cost reductions in sales [7] - The company aims to achieve a quarterly breakeven point by the end of 2025, supported by new model launches and export growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.5%. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 10.1 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year and 24.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The automotive business gross margin for Q3 2024 was 8.6%, an increase of 14.7 percentage points year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational quality [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve vehicle sales of 87,000 to 91,000 units in Q4 2024, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 44.6% to 51.3% [3]. Revenue Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 10.1 billion yuan, with automotive revenue at 8.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased from 225,700 yuan in Q2 2024 to 189,000 yuan in Q3 2024 [2]. - Other business revenue reached 1.31 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 90.7% year-on-year [2]. Profitability Summary - In Q3 2024, the automotive business gross profit was 760 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8.6% [2][3]. - Total gross profit for Q3 2024 was 1.54 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.3%, an increase of 17.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Expense Summary - R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were 1.63 billion yuan, up 25.1% year-on-year [3]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.63 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue range of 15.3 billion to 16.2 billion yuan for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% to 24.1% [3]. - The report highlights the launch of new models and a strong product cycle, with expectations for significant sales growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 results with gross margin exceeding expectations, and revenue and net profit in line with forecasts. Q3 sales revenue reached 10.1 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.4% and a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, resulting in a net loss of 1.81 billion yuan, showing year-on-year improvement [2][3] - The gross margin for Q3 reached 15.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.0% and a 1.3 percentage point increase year-on-year. The automotive gross margin was 8.6%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7% and a 2.2 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - The company achieved a delivery volume of 46,533 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, and accelerated its overseas expansion, with overseas sales increasing by 70% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 15% of total sales [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 sales revenue was 10.1 billion yuan, with automotive sales revenue at 8.8 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.1% and a year-on-year increase of 29.0% [2] - The company’s gross margin reached a new high of 15.3% in Q3, with the automotive gross margin at 8.6% and service and other profit margins at 60.1% [3] - The report forecasts revenue for 2024 to be 40.1 billion yuan, with net profit for 2024 adjusted to a loss of 5.6 billion yuan, while maintaining profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 billion yuan and 7.4 billion yuan respectively [4][13] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its global presence, having entered 30 countries and regions by the end of October, with a target of over 60 by the end of 2025 [3] - Collaboration with Volkswagen has contributed to revenue growth in software and electronic architecture, with high gross margin levels [3] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 12x for 2026, with the current P/E ratio for 2024 estimated at 15.97 [4][15]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|小鹏汽车-W（09868） 小鹏汽车 Q3 财务数据点评：毛利率改 善，盈亏平衡有望兑现 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月20日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 19 日，小鹏汽车发布第三季度财务数据。小鹏汽车 2024Q3 交付 4.7 万辆，同比 增长 16.3%。对应实现总收入 101.0 亿元，同比+18.4%，环比+24.5%。我们预计公司 2024/2025/2026 年销量分别为 19/42/64 万辆，对应营业收入分别为 434.0/922.9/1382.8 亿 元，同比分别增长 41.5%/112.6%/49.8%；归母净利润分别为-65.1/7.0/34.2 亿元。优质车型 上市有望迎来销量拐点，智能驾驶迭代催化和车型上市节奏有望助力公司实现财务数据的反 转，大众合作或进一步扩大公司营收和技术能力。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月20日 小鹏汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 77.36, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of HKD 51.95 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The company's automotive gross margin exceeded expectations in Q3, with a revenue of RMB 10.1 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%, and vehicle sales of 46,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 54.0% [1][2]. - The collaboration revenue with Volkswagen continues to contribute positively, while service and other revenues remained stable at RMB 1.31 billion [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 15.3%, up 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with automotive gross margin at 8.6%, showing a recovery of 2.2 percentage points [1][2]. - The company has maintained effective cost control, with R&D and selling expenses increasing slightly by 11.3% and 3.8% respectively, while the proportion of these expenses to revenue decreased [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the company expects total revenue to be between RMB 15.3 billion and RMB 16.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.2% to 24.1% [2]. - Vehicle delivery volume is projected to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 44.6% to 51.3% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles has decreased to RMB 189,000, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-priced models like M03 [2]. - The company anticipates continued improvement in gross margins due to economies of scale and optimized Bill of Materials (BOM) costs, with a 25% reduction in BOM costs for the P7+ model [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 30.68 billion in 2023, RMB 39.63 billion in 2024, RMB 61.23 billion in 2025, and RMB 67.67 billion in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.2%, 29.2%, 54.5%, and 10.5% [7][14]. - The company is expected to report a net loss of RMB 10.38 billion in 2023, narrowing to RMB 4.85 billion in 2024, and further to RMB 2.36 billion in 2025 [7][14]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from RMB -5.96 in 2023 to RMB -2.78 in 2024, and RMB -1.36 in 2025 [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 77.36, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of HKD 51.95 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations in Q3, with revenue reaching RMB 10.1 billion, a 24.5% increase quarter-on-quarter, and vehicle sales of 46,000 units, up 54.0% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company continues to benefit from ongoing revenue from partnerships, particularly with Volkswagen, and has maintained effective cost control, with R&D and sales expenses increasing slightly but decreasing as a percentage of revenue [1][2]. - The forecast for Q4 indicates total revenue between RMB 15.3 billion and RMB 16.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.2% to 24.1%, with vehicle deliveries expected to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 44.6% to 51.3% [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 30.7 billion in 2023, RMB 39.6 billion in 2024, RMB 61.2 billion in 2025, and RMB 67.7 billion in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.2%, 29.2%, 54.5%, and 10.5% [7]. - The company is expected to incur net losses of RMB 10.4 billion in 2023, RMB 4.8 billion in 2024, RMB 2.4 billion in 2025, and RMB 1.3 billion in 2026 [7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 12.8% in 2024, 13.8% in 2025, and 14.7% in 2026 [14]. Market Position - The company has a significant backlog of nearly 100,000 orders for its popular models, which is expected to support sales in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [2][3]. - The report highlights that the pricing of vehicles has decreased, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-priced models, yet the gross margin has shown signs of recovery [2][3]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts believe that the product strength and value proposition of the M03 and P7+ models will positively influence the sales of new models set to be released next year [3]. - The market has not yet fully priced in the potential sales boost from the upcoming extended-range models, suggesting there is still room for upward adjustments in sales forecasts for next year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18.4% and a year-on-year growth of 24.5%. The loss for the quarter was 1.81 billion yuan, which narrowed by 53.5% year-on-year but expanded by 40.7% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The sales volume of the M03 model increased, leading to a decline in average revenue per vehicle, but the gross margin improved. The company delivered 46,533 vehicles in Q3, exceeding previous delivery guidance [5][6]. - The gross margin for the automotive sales business was 8.6%, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to cost reduction efforts and a higher proportion of overseas model sales [5][6]. - The company expects Q4 2024 deliveries to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.6% to 51.3%, with total revenue projected to be between 15.3 billion and 16.2 billion yuan [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 service and other business revenue reached 1.31 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 60.1%, contributing positively to the overall gross margin of 15.3% for the quarter [6]. - The company plans to enter a strong product cycle in 2025, with at least four new models expected to be launched, including an extended-range vehicle with a pure electric range exceeding 400 kilometers [10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are set at 41.4 billion, 78.1 billion, and 102.9 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit projections of -6.1 billion, -1.7 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan [10].