小鹏汽车（9868.HK）系列点评五 2024Q3 毛利率超预期 经营周期拐点确立 2024 年 11 月 21 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：崔琰 执业证号：S0100523110002 邮箱：cuiyan@mszq.com 分析师：乔木 执业证号：S0100524100002 邮箱：qiaomu@mszq.com | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） Q3 毛利率超预期，继续重点推荐 2024 年 11 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 26855 | 30676 | 40106 | 90715 | 152484 | | 同比 (%) | 27.95 | 14.23 | 30.74 | 126.19 | 68.09 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (9139) | (10376) | (5622) | 1289 | 7353 | | 同比 (%) | (87.92) | (13.53) | 45.82 | 122.93 | 470.39 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | (4.81) ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|小鹏汽车-W（09868） 小鹏汽车 Q3 财务数据点评：毛利率改 善，盈亏平衡有望兑现 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月20日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 19 日，小鹏汽车发布第三季度财务数据。小鹏汽车 2024Q3 交付 4.7 万辆，同比 增长 16.3%。对应实现总收入 101.0 亿元，同比+18.4%，环比+24.5%。我们预计公司 2024/2025/2026 年销量分别为 19/42/64 万辆，对应营业收入分别为 434.0/922.9/1382.8 亿 元，同比分别增长 41.5%/112.6%/49.8%；归母净利润分别为-65.1/7.0/34.2 亿元。优质车型 上市有望迎来销量拐点，智能驾驶迭代催化和车型上市节奏有望助力公司实现财务数据的反 转，大众合作或进一步扩大公司营收和技术能力。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月20日 小鹏汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 77.36, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of HKD 51.95 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The company's automotive gross margin exceeded expectations in Q3, with a revenue of RMB 10.1 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%, and vehicle sales of 46,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 54.0% [1][2]. - The collaboration revenue with Volkswagen continues to contribute positively, while service and other revenues remained stable at RMB 1.31 billion [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 15.3%, up 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with automotive gross margin at 8.6%, showing a recovery of 2.2 percentage points [1][2]. - The company has maintained effective cost control, with R&D and selling expenses increasing slightly by 11.3% and 3.8% respectively, while the proportion of these expenses to revenue decreased [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the company expects total revenue to be between RMB 15.3 billion and RMB 16.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.2% to 24.1% [2]. - Vehicle delivery volume is projected to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 44.6% to 51.3% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles has decreased to RMB 189,000, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-priced models like M03 [2]. - The company anticipates continued improvement in gross margins due to economies of scale and optimized Bill of Materials (BOM) costs, with a 25% reduction in BOM costs for the P7+ model [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 30.68 billion in 2023, RMB 39.63 billion in 2024, RMB 61.23 billion in 2025, and RMB 67.67 billion in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.2%, 29.2%, 54.5%, and 10.5% [7][14]. - The company is expected to report a net loss of RMB 10.38 billion in 2023, narrowing to RMB 4.85 billion in 2024, and further to RMB 2.36 billion in 2025 [7][14]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from RMB -5.96 in 2023 to RMB -2.78 in 2024, and RMB -1.36 in 2025 [7][14].

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | 汽车 | 收盘价 港元 51.95 | 目标价 港元 77.36 | 潜在涨幅 +48.9% | | 2024 年 11 月 20 日 | | 小鹏汽车 | (9868 HK) | | | | | | 汽车毛利超预期， | P7+ | | 上量有望令汽车毛利进一步改善 | | | 3 季度汽车毛利超预期。3 季度小鹏汽车营收 101 亿元（人民币，下 同），环比上升 24.5%，符合市场和我们预期。汽车销量 4.6 万辆，环比 增长 54.0%。大众合作收入持续入账，服务和其他收入环比大致持平于 13.1 亿元。3 季度毛利率 15.3%，环比上升 1.3 个百分点，其中汽车毛利 率 8.6%，继续环比修 ...

公 司 季 报 点 评 2024 年 11 月 20 日 汽车 小鹏汽车-W(9868.HK) 新品周期开启，智能化逻辑延续 推荐（维持） 事项： 股价：51.95 元（港币） | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------------| | | | | 主要数据 | | | 行业 | 汽车 | | 公司网址 | www.xiaopeng.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | | | 实际控制人 | 何小鹏 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 1899.19 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 911.57 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 16.86 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 58.10 | | | | 行情走势图 证券分析师 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 BQV509 WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn 王跟海 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523080001 BVG94 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance over the next six months [4][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.1 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18.4% and a year-on-year growth of 24.5%. The loss for the quarter was 1.81 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year reduction of 53.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.7% [10]. - The company has improved its gross margin to 15.3% in Q3 2024, driven by cost reduction efforts and an increase in the sales proportion of higher-margin models [11]. - The company plans to enter a strong product cycle in 2025, with at least four new models expected to be launched, including an extended-range vehicle that enhances user appeal [14]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 30.68 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 41.35 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 34.8% [9][17]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be a loss of 6.09 billion yuan, improving to a profit of 1.4 billion yuan by 2026 [9][17]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 1.5% in 2023 to 14.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 17.6% by 2026 [9][17]. Sales and Delivery Insights - The company delivered 46,533 vehicles in Q3 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.0% [10]. - The sales revenue from automotive sales reached 8.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with an average revenue per vehicle of 189,000 yuan, which saw a decline of 3,700 yuan quarter-on-quarter [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The introduction of two popular models, M03 and P7+, is expected to help the company recover from previous sales challenges and improve market positioning [11][14]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological capabilities and expanding its product offerings to capture a broader customer base [14].

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车 P7+上市点评：开启 AI 汽车时代， 18.68 万起售定价大超预期，打造新爆款 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 11 月 7 日，小鹏 P7+ 正式上市，开启 AI 汽车时代， 18.68 万起售定价大超预期，打造新爆款， | | | 共有三个版本，长续航版 / 超长续航版 / 限定版 MAX 版分别为 18.68/19.88/21.88 万元，限定版 首发 500 台，上市即交付。小鹏智驾能力持续领先，随着新车周期强势开启，叠加渠道变 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表 聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責 任。 1 XPeng Inc. 小鵬汽車有限公司* （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司） （股份代號：9868） 小鵬汽車發佈 2024 年第三季度的未經審計財務業績 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.09條及根據證券及期貨條例 （香港法例第571章）第XIVA部而刊發。 ‧ 季度總收入為人民幣101.0億元，按季增加24.5% ‧ 季度毛利率為15.3%，創歷史新高，較2023年同期上升18.0個百分點 中國廣州，2024年11月19日 — 中國領先的智能電動汽車（「智能電動汽車」）公司XPeng Inc.（「小鵬汽車」或「本公司」，紐交所代號：XPEV及聯交所代號：9868）今天公佈其截至 2024年9月30日止三個月的未經審計財務業績。 截至2024年9月30日止三個月的運營及財務摘要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------- ...

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车 2024 年 10 月销量点评：单月交付再 创新高，10 月交付 2.4 万辆 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 小鹏汽车发布 2024 年 10 月销量。 10 月公司共交付新车 23917 台，同比增长 19.6% ，环比增 | | | 12.0% 。 2024 年 1-10 月，公司累计交付新车共 122478 台，同比增长 20.7% 。智能驾驶持 | | | | | | 续领先，随着渠道变革和营销体系加强，叠加强势新车周期开启，公司销量有望稳步提升。 MONA | | | 和 P7+ 开启公司新车周期。规模提升、平台和技术降本效果将进一步体现，叠加软件盈利 | | | ...