Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors-W (09868) [3][8] Core Views - XPeng Motors delivered 30,895 vehicles in November 2024, a 54% YoY and 29% MoM increase [3][12] - Expected sales for 2024/2025/2026 are 190,000/420,000/640,000 vehicles, with revenues of 434.0/922.9/1382.8 billion yuan, respectively [3][12] - Net profit forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 are -6.51/0.70/3.42 billion yuan, indicating a potential financial turnaround [3][12] - The MONA M03 model has been a hit, with over 10,000 units delivered monthly for three consecutive months, while the P7+ model delivered over 7,000 units in 23 days [12] - XPeng's XNGP urban autonomous driving system achieved an 85% monthly active user penetration rate in November 2024 [12] - The company is expanding globally, entering markets in Nepal and the UK, with further plans for Europe, ASEAN, and other regions [12] Financial Data and Valuation - Total shares outstanding: 1,899 million, with a market cap of 92,679.87 million HKD [8] - Net asset value per share: 20.51 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.04% [8] - Revenue growth rates for 2024/2025/2026 are projected at 41.5%/112.6%/49.8%, respectively [3][12] - EBITDA for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at -2,472.59/5,695.07/9,206.22 million yuan [13] - EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is expected to be -3.43/0.37/1.80 yuan per share [13] Industry and Market Performance - XPeng Motors operates in the automotive/passenger vehicle sector [8] - The stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week high/low of 65.50/25.50 HKD [8] - Relative performance compared to the Hang Seng Index shows XPeng outperforming in recent months [9] Strategic Developments - XPeng's "Park-to-Park" autonomous driving solution successfully completed its first test, showcasing advancements in end-to-end autonomous technology [12] - The company's AI Tianji 5.4.0 system, featuring 248 updates across AI driving, cabin, chassis, and connectivity, is now in public testing [12] - XPeng's global strategy is accelerating, with plans to expand further into Europe, ASEAN, and other key regions [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [5]. Core Insights - In November 2024, the company delivered 30,895 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.2% and a month-on-month increase of 29.2%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2024, the total deliveries reached 153,000 units, up 26.2% year-on-year [2][7]. - The company is experiencing a strong new vehicle cycle with the MONA M03 and P7+ models contributing significantly to sales growth. The sales momentum is expected to continue due to channel transformation and enhanced marketing strategies [8][9]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 reached 10.1 billion, marking an 18.4% year-on-year growth, with a gross margin of 15.3%, the highest quarterly margin recorded, and strong guidance for Q4 performance [9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November 2024 saw the company achieve its first monthly delivery exceeding 30,000 units, with the MONA M03 model alone delivering over 10,000 units in a month. The company’s sales are expected to continue to rise due to ongoing capacity ramp-up and new model launches [8][9]. Market Expansion - The company has made strides in international markets, officially entering Nepal and the UK in November. The G6 model has gained significant attention overseas, winning the "2024 Denmark Car of the Year Technology Leader" award [9]. Financial Outlook - The company projects a revenue of 41.5 billion for 2024, with a price-to-sales ratio of 2.0X. The software revenue is expected to show significant improvement, indicating a potential turning point in the new vehicle cycle [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 results met expectations, with a steady improvement in gross margin [4]. - Total sales for the first three quarters reached 99,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, while total revenue was CNY 24.76 billion, up 40.5% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin improved to 14.2%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of CNY 4.46 billion, reducing losses by CNY 4.57 billion year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q3 2024, total sales were 47,000 units, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 54.0% [4]. - Total revenue for Q3 was CNY 10.1 billion, reflecting an 18.4% increase year-on-year and a 24.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [4]. Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was 15.3%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3 percentage points [4]. - The company continues to improve profitability through cost reduction initiatives, with the gross margin for automotive sales rising from 6.4% in Q2 to 8.6% in Q3 [5]. New Product Launches - The launch of the new model MONA M03 significantly boosted sales, achieving over 30,000 pre-orders within 48 hours of its release [5]. - The company also introduced the P7+ model, which saw over 10,000 pre-orders within 12 minutes of its launch [5]. International Expansion - The company has accelerated its international expansion, with significant sales growth in overseas markets, contributing to 15% of total sales in Q3 [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of CNY 40.83 billion, CNY 78.92 billion, and CNY 101.35 billion respectively [6]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has also been adjusted, with expected losses narrowing to CNY 5.91 billion in 2024 and a projected profit of CNY 1.48 billion by 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 10.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%. The net loss narrowed to 1.81 billion yuan, down from a loss of 2.08 billion yuan year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net loss was 1.53 billion yuan, a reduction of 1.26 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9]. - The strong new car cycle has led to a significant increase in delivery volumes, contributing to revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan and a record high gross margin of 15.3%. The automotive business revenue reached 8.8 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year, with a delivery volume of 46,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [6][9]. - The company is expected to deliver between 87,000 and 91,000 vehicles in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.6% to 51.3%, with projected revenue of 15.3 billion to 16.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% to 24.1% [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%. The net loss was 1.81 billion yuan, a reduction from the previous year's loss of 2.08 billion yuan. The Non-GAAP net loss was 1.53 billion yuan, down from 2.79 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9]. - The automotive business generated revenue of 8.8 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 8.6%, an increase of 14.7 percentage points year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7][9]. Product and Market Developments - The new car cycle has significantly boosted delivery volumes, with the G9, G6, and MONA M03 models seeing substantial increases in deliveries. The delivery structure shows that G6, MONA, G9, and X9 accounted for 37.8%, 22.7%, 17.8%, and 9.2% of total deliveries, respectively [6][9]. - The company is expanding its overseas strategy, achieving record high overseas sales, with a 70% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3, accounting for 15% of total sales [8][9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong continuation of the new car cycle, with the MONA and P7+ models expected to significantly boost sales. The P7+ model has already received over 31,000 pre-orders as of November 7, 2024 [8][9]. - The financial outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued improvement driven by scale effects, cost reductions, and the expansion of software profitability models [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for XPeng Motors [4][40]. Core Views - XPeng Motors achieved a revenue of 10.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The total sales volume reached 46,533 units, up 16.3% year-on-year and 54% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company is experiencing a positive trend in its product cycle, with the launch of new models like the P7+ contributing to sales growth. The P7+ received over 31,000 pre-orders on its launch day [1][24][29]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 15.3%, an increase of 17.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -17.9% [1][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 46.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 53%. The net profit is expected to be -5.977 billion yuan [2][40]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.22%, improving by 16.3 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The forecast for net profit shows a gradual improvement, with expectations of -6 billion yuan in 2024, -1.6 billion yuan in 2025, and a positive 2.7 billion yuan in 2026 [40]. Sales and Market Performance - XPeng's total sales volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 98,561 units, a 21% increase year-on-year. The company expects Q4 2024 deliveries to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, marking an annual increase of approximately 44.6% to 51.3% [20][40]. - The company has optimized its sales network, with 639 stores covering 206 cities and 1,557 self-operated charging stations as of September 30, 2024 [20]. Product Development and Innovation - The P7+ model features advanced AI driving capabilities and is equipped with the latest self-developed technologies, including the AI Tianji 5.4.0 system [29][36]. - XPeng's AI technology includes a comprehensive self-developed stack, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [24][29]. Future Outlook - The report maintains its profit forecast, expecting continued growth driven by new models like the Mona M03 and P7+, and the implementation of a pure visual solution for high-level autonomous driving [40].

小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 优于大市 单三季度毛利率同环比双升，新品周期持续向上 2024Q3 小鹏汽车实现营业收入 101 亿元，同比增长 18%。2024Q3 小鹏汽 车的销量为 46,533 辆，同比增长 16.3%，环比增长 54.0%；总收入为 101.0 亿元，同比增长 18.4%，环比增长 24.5%；净利润为-18.1 亿元，去年同 期为-38.9 亿元，今年单二季度为-12.8 亿元。拆分来看，1）2024Q3 汽 车销售收入为 88.0 亿元，同比增长 12%，环比增长 29%，同环比增长主 要由于交付量增加所致。2）2024Q3 服务及其他收入为 13.1 亿元，同 比增长 90.7%，环比增长 1.1%，同比增长主要由于与大众进行平台与软 件战略以及电子电气架构技术合作有关的技术研发服务收入增加所致。 研发与经营活动降本增效，毛利率与净利率同比提升。2024Q3，小鹏汽 车的毛利率/净利率分别为 15.3%/-17.9%，分别同比+17.9/+27.7pct， 分别环比+1.3/-2.1pct；研发费用率/销售、行政及一般费用率分别为 16.2%/16.2%，分别同比-3.7/+ ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for XPeng-W (09868 HK) with a target price of HKD 57 8 and USD 14 9 for XPEV N [2][3] Core Views - XPeng is in a strong product cycle with improving profitability expected by 2025 [2] - New models like Mona M03 and P7+ are driving sales growth with Q3 revenue reaching RMB 10 1 billion up 18% YoY and 25% QoQ [2] - Q3 gross margin exceeded expectations at 15 3% up 1 3pct QoQ driven by cost reductions and economies of scale [2] - The company aims to achieve breakeven at the operational level by the end of 2025 [2] - XPeng's overseas profitability is higher than domestic due to its premium positioning in international markets [2] Financial Performance - Q3 vehicle sales revenue was RMB 8 8 billion up 12% YoY while service and other revenue surged 91% YoY to RMB 1 3 billion [2] - Q3 net loss narrowed by 53% YoY to RMB 1 8 billion with a net loss margin of 18% [2] - Non-GAAP net loss was RMB 1 53 billion with a net loss margin of 15 2% [2] - Q3 vehicle sales gross margin improved to 8 6% up 2 2pct QoQ while service and other gross margin rose to 60 1% up 5 9pct QoQ [2] Product and Sales Outlook - Mona M03 and P7+ are expected to drive monthly sales to record highs in 2025 [2] - XPeng plans to launch 4 new models and multiple facelifts in 2025 [2] - The company targets monthly sales of 30 000 units in November 2024 and P7+ deliveries of over 10 000 units in December 2024 [2] Technological Advancements - XPeng introduced the Kunpeng Super Electric System featuring next-generation range-extending technology [2] - The company plans to enhance its intelligent driving capabilities with the Tianji 5 5 system aiming for one intervention per 100 kilometers by Q4 2025 [2] Overseas Expansion - Q3 overseas sales accounted for 15% of total sales with XPeng leading Chinese brands in the European mid-to-high-end EV market [2] - The overseas sales network expanded to 30+ countries and 110+ stores by Q3 2024 with plans to reach 140+ stores by end of 2024 and 300+ stores by 2025 [2] Financial Projections - XPeng is expected to sell 190 000 units in 2024 400 000 units in 2025 and 450 000 units in 2026 [2] - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 40 8 billion in 2024 RMB 73 2 billion in 2025 and RMB 88 2 billion in 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is forecasted at -14% in 2024 -5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with target prices set at $15.2 for XPEV.US (potential upside of 22%) and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK (potential upside of 18%) [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is entering a strong product cycle, with expected vehicle deliveries reaching 30,000 units in November, supported by strong order performance for models M03 and P7+. This positions the company for significant sales growth in 2024 and 2025, with revised sales forecasts of 188,000 units and 400,000 units respectively [1][2]. - The automotive gross margin has shown continuous improvement, reaching 8.6% in Q3 2024, benefiting from product mix enhancements and supply chain cost reductions. The company anticipates a 21% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The company plans to launch four new models and several refreshed versions next year, aiming to sustain sales growth. Additionally, overseas sales have increased by approximately 70% quarter-over-quarter, contributing to 15% of total sales [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 40.53 billion in 2024, RMB 74.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 140.165 billion in 2026, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 32%, 84%, and 88% respectively [4][16]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 14.2% in 2024, 15.6% in 2025, and 16.9% in 2026, reflecting the positive impact of new platform models [4][16]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 18.5 billion in Q3 2024, although this represents a significant year-over-year decrease [2][4]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.3x for automotive sales and 2.1x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of $15.2 for XPEV.US and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK [3][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a profitability inflection point driven by a rich model matrix in 2025, cost reduction through platformization, and increased export volume [6][7] - Revenue estimates for 2024 have been slightly adjusted down to 41.03 billion yuan, while 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates have been raised to 95.56 billion yuan and 122.06 billion yuan respectively [6] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to -5.38 billion yuan, -2.23 billion yuan, and 339 million yuan respectively, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 30,676 in 2023 to 95,558 in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 132.9% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from -9,444 million yuan in 2023 to -2,231 million yuan in 2025, with a return to profitability in 2026 [7] - Gross margin is projected to increase from 1.5% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and operational efficiency [7] - The company is expected to achieve a quarterly breakeven point by the end of 2025, supported by new model launches and export growth [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a profitability turning point driven by a rich model matrix in 2025, cost reduction through platform technology, and increased export volume [6] - Revenue estimates for 2024 have been slightly adjusted down to 41.03 billion yuan, while 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates have been raised to 95.56 billion yuan and 122.06 billion yuan respectively [6] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to -5.38 billion yuan, -2.23 billion yuan, and 339 million yuan respectively, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [6] - The current stock price of 50.35 HKD corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 2.2, 0.9, and 0.7 for 2024-2026 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2022 was 26.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.0%. The revenue for 2023 is projected at 30.68 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.2% growth [7] - The company reported a Non-GAAP net loss of 15.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024, which was better than market expectations [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 15.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to cost reductions in sales [7] - The company aims to achieve a quarterly breakeven point by the end of 2025, supported by new model launches and export growth [7]