Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant increase in April 2025 vehicle deliveries, with a total of 35,045 units delivered, representing a year-on-year growth of 273% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [1][2] - The company is enhancing its product lineup with the upgraded 2025 Xiaopeng X9 and P7+, which feature advanced configurations and technology, ensuring strong delivery capabilities moving forward [1][2] Delivery Performance - In April 2025, Xiaopeng Motors delivered 35,045 vehicles, marking a 273% increase year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [1] - The Xiaopeng MONA M03 has achieved over 100,000 cumulative deliveries in just 8 months, while the P7+ has reached its 50,000th unit in 5 months [1] Product Development - The 2025 Xiaopeng X9 has been upgraded with new configurations, priced between 359,800 to 419,800 yuan, while the P7+ features a long-range Max flagship version equipped with advanced AI battery technology [1] - The company is set to mass-produce its Turing AI chip in Q2, enhancing its smart driving capabilities [1] Market Expansion - The 2025 Xiaopeng X9 received 6,000 orders within 7 days of its launch in mainland China, setting a record for pure electric MPVs, and over 1,500 orders in various Asia-Pacific regions [2] - Xiaopeng Motors is accelerating its global strategy, with strong product performance expected to drive sales growth [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts vehicle sales of 524,000, 786,000, and 966,000 units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 139.2%, 61.7%, and 24.7% [2] - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at 1.2 billion, 6 billion, and 9.42 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in vehicle deliveries and revenue, despite a slight decline in average selling price (ASP) [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 vehicle deliveries reached 94,008 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 330.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [1]. - Q1 revenue was 15.81 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 141.4% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.9% [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 153,000 yuan, down 39.8% year-on-year and 4.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - R&D and SG&A expenses for Q1 were 1.98 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan, respectively, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios at 12.5% and 12.3% [1]. - Q1 gross margin was 15.6%, with automotive gross margin at 10.5%, both showing improvements compared to previous periods [1][2]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 660 million yuan, with a calculated loss of 7,000 yuan per vehicle [1]. Operational Analysis and Outlook - The reduction in losses was attributed to strong sales of popular models M03 and P7, which maintained robust order reserves [1][2]. - The automotive gross margin improved despite a higher proportion of M03 sales, as the company benefited from the redesign of G6 and G9 models, enhancing profitability [2]. - Q2 may face some pressure due to increased market competition, but the company expects stable sales driven by rising export volumes and new vehicle deliveries [2]. - The company is focused on optimizing its vehicle structure, with expectations for improved profitability in Q2 due to the full delivery cycle of redesigned models [2]. - For the full year, the market's focus will be on new vehicle launches, with the company’s strong product development capabilities and technology positioning being key factors [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Xiaopeng Motors is recognized as a leading player in the domestic smart driving sector, with significant improvements in fundamentals and a strong new vehicle cycle [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 94.62 billion yuan, 153.27 billion yuan, and 175.70 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth potential and market positioning [3].

机构：华泰证券 研究员：宋亭亭/王立献 1-4 月，公司累计出口1.1 万台，同比+330%，销量占比9%。展望25 年公司将继续拓展海外市场，我们 预计公司全年海外销量或实现翻倍增长。同时，小鹏正在持续推进双能路线（公司预计25Q4 上市增程 SUV）、飞行汽车、人形机器人等多条成长曲线，我们乐观看待公司中长期的成长空间。 盈利预测与估值 我们维持此前预测，预计公司25-27 年收入856/977/1247 亿元。采用分部估值，相较可比公司，25 年小 鹏新车周期和智能化优势扩大。我们给予销售业务2.1x 2025E PS（前值1.8x），较可比公司维持溢价1x PS；技术服务业务方面，参考文远智行等公司，我们维持公司该业务估值为400 亿港币。上调公司目标 价为119.99 港币（前值105.27 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：消费需求不及预期，供应链短缺，公司产品发布、订单不及预期。 M03、P7+等热销下规模效应增强，25Q1 公司毛利率为15.6%，同环比+2.7/1.1pct，其中汽车毛利率 10.5%，同环比+5.0/0.5pct，连续七个季度改善。单车ASP/毛利分别为15.3/1.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 15.6% in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1 percentage points. The net loss narrowed to RMB 660 million, a reduction of 51% year-on-year and 50% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle and enhanced smart features, projecting revenues of RMB 90.9 billion, RMB 130.3 billion, and RMB 152.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB -1.1 billion, RMB 3.2 billion, and RMB 6.7 billion for the same years [9]. - The company delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a 331% increase year-on-year and a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter, with key models contributing significantly to sales [9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022 to 2027, the company’s projected revenue shows a significant growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 90.9 billion in 2025, up from RMB 40.9 billion in 2024, representing a 122% increase [3][7]. - The gross profit is projected to increase from RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.9 billion in 2025, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [3][7]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to a loss of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability projected in 2026 [3][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.9x for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 98.58, based on peer comparisons [9]. - The company’s stock has traded within a range of HKD 26.05 to HKD 97.45 over the past 52 weeks, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which will enhance its competitive position and stimulate sales growth [7][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [4]. - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [4]. - The overall gross profit for Q1 2025 was 24.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [4]. Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, mainly due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [5]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB, respectively [8][9]. Financial Metrics - The report forecasts a net profit for 2026 of 4.6 billion RMB, with an EPS of 2.44 RMB [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/S ratio of 1.4 in 2025, decreasing to 0.8 by 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current closing price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales increasing by 2.7% to 94,000 units [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles [3][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion by 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion by 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses projected for 2025 [4][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX and the new generation P7, which are expected to enhance sales and improve margins. The introduction of the Kunpeng super electric vehicle in Q4 2025 is anticipated to have a positive impact on gross margins [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong positioning among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with expectations for continued sales growth driven by new model launches and advancements in autonomous driving technology [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales of 94,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7% [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.5% to 14.9% [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The expected year-on-year growth rates are 14.2% for 2023, 33.2% for 2024, and 110.9% for 2025E [4][13]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion in 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion in 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses expected in the earlier years [4][13]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX on May 28, which targets the market at the RMB 150,000 level, and the new generation P7 in Q3 2025. The company aims to enhance its product offerings and improve gross margins through these new launches [3][8]. - The company is also planning to introduce humanoid robots by 2026, which will be equipped with advanced AI capabilities, indicating a strategic move into the AI and robotics sector [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating ongoing operational improvements [4] - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which are anticipated to stimulate sales growth and enhance competitive positioning in the long term [7][8] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, driven by increased delivery volumes [4] - The company forecasts automotive sales for Q1 2025 to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, with expected revenue of approximately 175 billion to 187 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 115.7% to 130.5% [5] Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, while the R&D expense ratio decreased by 8.1 percentage points year-on-year to 12.5% [5] - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5] Financial Outlook - The company expects revenues of 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected to be -6.6 billion RMB, 46.4 billion RMB, and 75.4 billion RMB [8][9] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company's financial performance driven by new model cycles and organizational innovations [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported Q1 revenue of 15.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 141% and a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 660 million RMB, which is a narrowing of losses compared to previous quarters, aligning with expectations [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 reached a record high of 15.6%, reflecting significant internal cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The automotive gross margin was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has delivered over 30,000 vehicles for six consecutive months, with expectations for continued strong sales in the upcoming months due to the launch of new models [3] - The company is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets, with a cumulative export of 11,000 vehicles in the first four months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 330% [4] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 85.6 billion RMB, 97.7 billion RMB, and 124.7 billion RMB respectively, with an upward adjustment of the target price to 119.99 HKD [5][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 sales of new vehicles reached 94,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 331%. The company expects to deliver 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, setting a new delivery guidance high [2] - The company’s operating expenses have shown significant control, with SG&A and R&D expense ratios at 12% and 13% respectively, down 9 and 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Development - The company plans to launch three new models between May and August, including the M03 MAX, P7 facelift, and G7, which are expected to replicate the success of previous models [3] Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with expectations for doubling overseas sales in 2025 [4] Valuation and Estimates - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, maintaining a premium valuation for the sales business at 2.1x 2025E PS, compared to peers [5][12] - The target price has been raised to 119.99 HKD, reflecting the company's growth potential and market position [5][12]

智通财经APP获悉，5月22日港股市场，北水成交净买入38.8亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入30.24亿 港元，港股通(深)成交净买入8.56亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是建设银行(00939)、美团-W(03690)、泡泡玛特(09992)。北水净卖出最多的个股 是腾讯(00700)、小鹏汽车-W(09868)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 小米集团-W | | | 52.76亿 | | HK 01810 | 26.24 乙 | 26.52亿 | -2774.41万 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 15.98 乙 | 18.17 乙 | 34.15亿 | | HK 09988 | | | -2.19 Z- | | 建设银行 | 15.29 乙 | 6.00亿 | 21.29亿 | | HK 00939 | | | +9.29 乙 | | 腾讯控股 | 8.14 Z | 12.78 乙 | 20.93亿 | | HK 00700 | | | -4.64 Z | | 小鹏汽 ...