交银国际研究 公司更新 | 汽车 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.45 | 港元 134.69↑ | +38.2% | | | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) | | | | | | 产品大年，受惠智驾普及，维持买入 个股评级 买入 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 97.45 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.05 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 150,811.67 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 42.08 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 108.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 51.63 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

交银国际研究 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 公司更新 | 汽车 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.45 | 港元 134.69↑ | +38.2% | | | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) | | | | | | 产品大年，受惠智驾普及，维持买入 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 9868 HK MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 97.45 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.05 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 150,811.67 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 42.08 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 108.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 51.63 | | 资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total delivery of 30,453 vehicles in February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 570.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [3][5]. - Cumulative deliveries for January and February 2025 reached 61,000 vehicles, showing a year-on-year growth of 375.2% [3][5]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth driven by strong new vehicle launches, including the MONA M03 and P7+, alongside improvements in marketing and channel strategies [5]. - The company anticipates a revenue of 85.7 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.8X, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February 2025 saw the company achieve over 30,000 deliveries for the fourth consecutive month, with MONA M03 and P7+ maintaining strong delivery numbers [5]. - The MONA M03 delivered over 15,000 units in February alone, setting a record for new energy vehicle deliveries [5]. - The P7+ has achieved over 30,000 cumulative deliveries within three months of its launch, breaking the record for the fastest delivery in its class [5]. Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its marketing and channel strategies, which are expected to contribute to sustained sales growth [5]. - The launch of the first right-hand drive model, the G6, in the UK is set to begin deliveries in March 2025, indicating the company's commitment to expanding its international presence [5]. - The establishment of a fast-charging network in Southeast Asia is planned for 2025, further supporting the company's global energy system layout [5]. Technological Advancements - The company reported a monthly active user penetration rate of 86% for its XNGP urban intelligent driving system in February 2025 [5]. - The total mileage and duration of intelligent driving increased by 98.2% and 103.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a user penetration rate of 93.3% [5]. - The 2025 model of the G6 was officially unveiled, featuring advanced capabilities and design improvements [5].

2025 年 03 月 05 日 小鹏汽车-W (09868) ——2 月销量"淡季不淡"，强势新车周期来袭 上 市 公 司 汽车 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 04 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 78.90 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8367.47 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 90.00/25.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,499.46 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,551.74 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0841 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -30% 70% 170% 03/04 04/04 05/04 06/04 07/04 08/04 09/04 10/04 11 ...

小鹏汽车-W获南向资金连续4天净买入，累计净买入金额为8.45亿港元，股价累计上涨10.45%。 （数据宝） 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，2月28日港股通（包括沪市港股通及深市港股通）成交活跃股合计成交 738.40亿港元，净买入金额为15.89亿港元。 2月28日上榜的成交活跃股中，小鹏汽车-W通过港股通渠道成交金额为12.21亿港元，净买入金额为0.84 亿港元，不仅如此，该股已连续4日出现成交净买入，累计净买入金额为8.45亿港元，其间股价上涨 10.45%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in monthly sales for four consecutive months, with December deliveries reaching 36,695 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.4% and a month-on-month increase of 18.8% [2][4]. - Cumulative deliveries for the year 2024 reached 190,000 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 34.2% [2][4]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth driven by strong new vehicle cycles, enhanced marketing systems, and channel transformations [2][6]. - The introduction of models like MONA M03 and P7+ is expected to further boost sales [2][6]. - The company is projected to generate revenue of 41.5 billion in 2024, with a price-to-sales ratio of 2.0X, indicating significant financial improvement [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - December 2024 saw a total of 36,695 vehicles delivered, with Q4 deliveries exceeding guidance limits, totaling 91,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.1% [4][6]. - The MONA M03 model achieved a delivery of 15,000 units in December, with total deliveries surpassing 50,000 units, setting a record for new energy vehicle production speed [6]. Market Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, completing its 10,000th vehicle delivery in Europe and opening its first flagship store in Australia [6]. Technological Advancements - The monthly active user penetration rate for the XNGP urban intelligent driving system reached 85% in December [6]. - The company launched a significant OTA update for the P7+, enhancing its software capabilities [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][3] Core Insights - In January 2025, the company delivered 30,350 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 268%. Future sales are expected to grow rapidly, with projected sales of 442,000 and 652,000 vehicles for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Corresponding revenues for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 43.54 billion, 94.75 billion, and 136.41 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.9%, 117.6%, and 44.0% [3][16] - The company is expected to achieve a turning point in sales with the launch of high-quality models and the iteration of smart driving technology, which is anticipated to help reverse financial data. Collaboration with Volkswagen is expected to leverage technological advantages to realize revenue [3][16] Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - In January 2025, the company delivered 30,350 vehicles, a 268% increase year-on-year, maintaining a leading position among new energy vehicle manufacturers. The MONA M03 model achieved over 15,000 deliveries in a single month, while the P7+ model surpassed 20,000 deliveries within two months. The order backlog is robust, with waiting times of 2-5 weeks for MONA M03 and 1-4 weeks for P7+, ensuring delivery capabilities [13][14] Smart Driving Technology - The monthly active user penetration rate for the XNGP urban smart driving feature reached 87% in January. The AI system has been upgraded to include new functionalities such as "parking to parking" and coach car recognition. The company enhances user stickiness by offering standard AI smart driving features without additional costs [15] Global Strategy and Charging Ecosystem - The company accelerated its global strategy with the launch of the right-hand drive version of the X9 at the Singapore Auto Show and entered markets in Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Finland. The charging ecosystem is expanding with new partnerships, including agreements with Volkswagen Group and bp pulse. The self-operated charging network has surpassed 2,050 stations, with plans to add over 1,000 ultra-fast charging stations in 2025 [16] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 43.54 billion, 94.75 billion, and 136.41 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.9%, 117.6%, and 44.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -6.20 billion, -0.59 billion, and 4.31 billion yuan for the same years [3][17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company focuses on smart electric vehicles and has a diverse management team with backgrounds in internet, automotive manufacturing, and strategic financing [1][12] - The company has shown robust growth in vehicle sales and significant improvement in loss rates, with a compound annual growth rate of 83% in deliveries from 2019 to 2023 [2][20] - The company has launched advanced smart driving systems and new models that have been well received in the market, indicating strong demand [3][30] Summary by Sections 1. Product Matrix and Management Team - The company is a leading smart electric vehicle manufacturer in China, with a diverse management team that shapes its unique DNA [1][12] - The current product lineup includes six models ranging from sedans to SUVs, priced between 110,000 to 420,000 yuan [1][14] 2. Sales Growth and Financial Improvement - Annual delivery volume increased from 12,728 units in 2019 to 144,161 units in 2023, with a monthly sales increase of 255% from January 2021 to September 2024 [2][20] - In the first half of 2024, total revenue reached 14.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%, while net loss improved by 48% to -2.653 billion yuan [2][26] - Gross margin improved from -24% in 2019 to 14% in 2024, and net margin improved from -159% to -18% during the same period [2][28] 3. Leading Smart Technology and New Model Sales - The company launched the XNGP smart driving system in 2022, which has been continuously upgraded and is capable of full-scenario intelligent driving [3][30] - The new model MONA M03 was launched in August 2024, achieving over 10,000 units sold in its second month of delivery [3][38] - The P7+ model began pre-sales in October 2024, with over 30,000 orders placed within the first hour and 48 minutes [3][42] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 43.195 billion yuan, 64.324 billion yuan, and 95.754 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to improve significantly by 2026 [4][52] - The report emphasizes the company's leading smart driving technology and strong sales growth as key factors for investment [4][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [12] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in smart technology, focusing on enhancing its brand image and product offerings while addressing previous operational challenges [5][15] - The company aims to create a comprehensive product matrix targeting various market segments, particularly appealing to younger consumers [51][52] - The company has undergone significant organizational restructuring to improve management efficiency and marketing strategies, particularly through the implementation of the "Jupiter Plan" to enhance dealership networks [6][15] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 41.03 billion RMB in 2024, 95.56 billion RMB in 2025, and 122.06 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 33.7%, 132.9%, and 27.7% respectively [16] - The company is projected to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of -5.38 billion RMB in 2024, -2.23 billion RMB in 2025, and a profit of 339 million RMB in 2026, indicating a path towards profitability [39] - The current stock price of 48.60 HKD corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 2.1 for 2024, 0.9 for 2025, and 0.7 for 2026, suggesting potential undervaluation [39] Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched several models, including the M03 and P7+, which have received positive market responses, indicating a strong product pipeline [26][39] - The company emphasizes technological innovation, with a focus on autonomous driving capabilities and smart features, aiming to enhance user experience and market competitiveness [4][39] - The company is actively expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships, including collaborations with major automotive players like Volkswagen [39][47] Organizational Changes and Management - The introduction of key personnel, such as Wang Fengying, aims to drive the company's strategic direction and operational improvements [6][39] - The company has restructured its management to better align with its growth objectives and enhance its marketing and product development capabilities [6][39] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for smart electric vehicles, with a focus on delivering high-quality, innovative products that meet consumer needs [39][40] - The competitive landscape is characterized by rapid technological advancements and increasing consumer expectations, necessitating continuous innovation and adaptation [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors with a target price of HKD 80.00 [7][11]. Core Insights - XPeng Motors achieved record deliveries of 30,000 vehicles in November, with expectations for Q4 deliveries to reach new highs [1][3]. - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 10.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25% [1]. - The GAAP net loss for Q3 was RMB 1.8 billion, a reduction of 53% year-on-year, while the NON-GAAP net loss was RMB 1.5 billion, down 45% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 reached 15.3%, marking a record high and an improvement for five consecutive quarters [2]. Summary by Sections Delivery and Sales Performance - In November, XPeng delivered 30,000 vehicles, driven by increased deliveries of the P7+ model and improved production capacity [3]. - The company expects total Q4 deliveries to be between 87,000 and 91,000 vehicles, contributing to positive free cash flow for the quarter [3]. Product Development and Market Expansion - XPeng plans to launch at least four new models in 2025, including its first range-extended vehicle, which is expected to enhance its market position [4]. - The company has seen a 70% quarter-on-quarter increase in overseas sales in Q3, with plans to expand into over 90% of the new energy market outside North America by 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - The report maintains sales forecasts for 2024-2026 at 200,000, 430,000, and 490,000 vehicles respectively, with revenue projections of RMB 45.3 billion, RMB 85.6 billion, and RMB 97.7 billion [5][6]. - The target price adjustment to HKD 80.00 reflects a slight change due to currency fluctuations, while maintaining the valuation multiples for the sales and technology service segments [11].