证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|小鹏汽车-W（09868） 小鹏汽车 2024 年 10 月销量点评： Mona 热销 P7+或延续，智能全球助成长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月07日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 1 日，小鹏汽车公布 10 月交付数据。2024 年 10 月，小鹏汽车共交付新车 23,917 台，同比增长 20%，环比增长 12%。2024 年 1 月-10 月，小鹏汽车累计交付新车共 122,478 台， 同比增长 21%。我们预计公司 2024/2025/2026 年销量分别为 18/45/67 万辆，对应营业收入分 别为 436/793/1046 亿元，同比增速分别为 42%/82%/32%。归母净利润分别为-50.5/ -5/23 亿元。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 数据来源：公司公告、iFinD，国联证券研究所预测；股价为 2024 年 11 月 07 日收盘价 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 10 月 23 日 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 高性价比车型再次点燃消费者购车热情，公司交付量创历史新高 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|----------|-----------|----------|----------|----------|---------------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 26855.12 | 30676.07 | 51393.79 | 76691.72 | 99994.50 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 27.95 | 14.23 | 67.54 | 49.22 | 30.39 | 行业 | 汽车 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -91 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 50.60 港元 77.36↑ +52.9% 汽车 2024 年 10 月 14 日 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) P7+或将接棒继续降维打击，上调销量预测和目标价，维持买入 M03 超预期后，P7+或将接棒继续降维打击。小鹏 P7+ 的全球首次亮相发 布会上，新车预售价将会在 10 月 14 日巴黎车展上公布。继 M03 的成功 后，我们认为 P7+的定价依然会采取较为积极的策略，将接棒继续降维打 击。我们认为 P7+主要以下几方面亮点: 1） 大空间： P7+ 的长宽高分别为 5056/1937/1512mm，轴距 3000mm，达到 C 级车的尺寸。何小鹏也用"河 马"，"空间怪物" 等来形容 P7+ 的空间。P7+也是今年除智界 R7（价格较 贵）外，少数以空间当成重要亮点的纯电轿车。2） 舒适性： 全车标配座 椅加热、通风、按摩，后排座椅标配 10°电动调节，全系都是 Nappa 座椅 搭配超纤绒顶棚，全系标配的还有三款香氛以及 20 个扬声器。3）首发 AI 鹰眼视觉智驾方案：小鹏 P7+ 或全系标配 AI 鹰眼视觉智驾方案，新车 的智驾软件 ...

2024 年 10 月 11 日 公 司 事 项 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 小鹏汽车-W(9868.HK) M03为销量背书，但P7+才是关键 推荐（维持） 事项： 股价：50.6 元（港币） | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------------------------| | 主要数据 | | | 行业 | 汽车 | | 公司网址 | www.xiaopeng.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | Simplicity Holding Limited/17.27% | | 实际控制人 | 何小鹏 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 1899.19 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 | ) | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 | ) | | 总市值（亿元） | 874.65 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( | 亿元 ) | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 17.97 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 54.66 | | 行情走势图 | | 证券分析师 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 BQV509 WANGD ...

公 司 事 项 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 10 月 11 日 汽车 小鹏汽车-W(9868.HK) M03为销量背书，但P7+才是关键 推荐（维持） 事项： 股价：50.6 元（港币） | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------------------------| | 主要数据 | | | 行业 | 汽车 | | 公司网址 | www.xiaopeng.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | Simplicity Holding Limited/17.27% | | 实际控制人 | 何小鹏 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 1899.19 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 | ) | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 | ) | | 总市值（亿元） | 874.65 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( | 亿元 ) | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 17.97 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 54.66 | | 行情走势图 | | 证券分析师 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 BQV509 WA ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 9 月交付创新高，首款 AI 汽车 P7+上市在即 2024 年 10 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 26855 | 30676 | 38689 | 74244 | 109029 | | 同比 (%) | 27.95 | 14.23 | 26.12 | 91.90 | 46.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (9139) | (10376) | (5687) | (2417) | 2723 | | 同比 (%) | (87.92) | (13.53) | 45.19 | 57.50 | 212.70 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Inc (09868) [5] Core Views - XPeng's delivery capability is steadily improving, with September 2024 deliveries reaching a new high of 21,352 units, a 39% YoY increase and a 52% MoM increase [2][7] - The MONA M03 model, launched on August 28, 2024, exceeded expectations with over 30,000 pre-orders within 48 hours and quickly became the best-selling A-class pure electric sedan after its official launch in September [2][7] - XPeng's intelligent driving technology is progressing, with plans to achieve door-to-door autonomous driving by the end of 2024 and approach L3 autonomy by the second half of 2025 [7] - The XNGP urban autonomous driving system achieved an 83% monthly active user penetration rate in September 2024 [7] - The AI Tianji XOS 5.3.0 system was fully rolled out on September 25, 2024, bringing 32 feature updates and 38 performance upgrades [7] Financial Projections - Expected sales for 2024/2025/2026 are 180,000/450,000/670,000 units, with corresponding revenues of 43.6/79.3/104.6 billion yuan [8] - Net profit is projected to improve significantly, with estimates of -5.05/-0.5/2.3 billion yuan for 2024/2025/2026 [8] - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 42%/82%/32% for 2024/2025/2026 [8] - The company is expected to achieve positive EBITDA of 1.9064 billion yuan in 2026, compared to -5.1072 billion yuan in 2024 [9] Market Performance - Current stock price is 55.00 HKD with a market capitalization of 104.45514 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a 52-week range of 74.30 to 25.50 HKD [5] - The company has a book value per share of 20.51 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.04% [5] Industry Context - XPeng operates in the automotive/passenger vehicle sector [5] - The company's AI-driven strategy and new model launches are expected to drive a turnaround in financial performance [8] - Collaboration with Volkswagen could further expand XPeng's revenue and technical capabilities [8]

Vehicle Deliveries - Total vehicle deliveries for the first six months of 2024 reached 52,028 units, a 25.6% increase compared to 41,435 units in the same period of 2023[3] - Total deliveries for July 2024 were 11,145 units, bringing the cumulative total for the year to 63,173 units[5] - Total deliveries for August 2024 were 14,036 units, bringing the cumulative total for the year to 77,209 units[5] Revenue and Sales - Total revenue for the first six months of 2024 was RMB 14.66 billion, up 61.2% from RMB 9.10 billion in the same period of 2023[3] - Vehicle sales revenue for the first six months of 2024 was RMB 12.36 billion, a 55.7% increase from RMB 7.94 billion in the same period of 2023[3] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 14,659,503 thousand, a 61.2% increase compared to RMB 9,096,116 thousand in the same period of 2023[34] - Automotive sales revenue increased to RMB 12,363,263 thousand in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 7,938,304 thousand in the same period of 2023[195] - The company's service and other sales revenue increased to RMB 946,026 thousand in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 730,927 thousand in the same period of 2023[195] Gross Margin and Profitability - Gross margin for the first six months of 2024 improved to 13.5%, compared to -1.4% in the same period of 2023[3] - Vehicle gross margin for the first six months of 2024 was 6.0%, compared to -5.9% in the same period of 2023[3] - Gross profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 1,979,543 thousand, compared to a gross loss of RMB 130,359 thousand in the same period of 2023[34] Net Loss and Operating Loss - Net loss for the first six months of 2024 was RMB 2.65 billion, a significant reduction from RMB 5.14 billion in the same period of 2023[3] - Operating loss for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was RMB 3.26 billion, compared to RMB 5.68 billion for the same period in 2023[10] - Non-GAAP operating loss for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was RMB 3.23 billion, compared to RMB 5.42 billion for the same period in 2023[10] - Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was RMB 2.65 billion, compared to RMB 5.14 billion for the same period in 2023[10] - Non-GAAP net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was RMB 2.63 billion, compared to RMB 4.88 billion for the same period in 2023[10] - Net loss for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2,652,571 thousand, a 48.4% decrease from RMB 5,141,610 thousand in the same period of 2023[34] - Net loss from operating activities decreased to RMB 2,652,571 thousand in 2024 from RMB 5,141,610 thousand in 2023[43] Cash and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and time deposits totaled RMB 37.33 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 45.70 billion as of December 31, 2023[4] - Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and time deposits totaled RMB 37.32 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 45.69 billion as of December 31, 2023[12] - Net cash used in operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was RMB 7.39 billion, compared to RMB 6.22 billion for the same period in 2023[13] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 14,253,645 thousand from RMB 21,127,163 thousand[30] - Net cash used in operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,391,612, compared to RMB 6,221,971 for the same period in 2023[62] - As of June 30, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, restricted short-term deposits, short-term investments, and the current portion of long-term deposits totaled RMB 32,118,194[63] - The company believes its current liquidity is sufficient to meet operational and contractual obligations for the next twelve months[63] Loans and Financing - Short-term bank loans in China totaled RMB 4.16 billion as of June 30, 2024, with an effective annual interest rate of 2.62%[14] - Long-term bank loans for the Wuhan manufacturing base totaled RMB 1.98 billion as of June 30, 2024, with an effective annual interest rate of 4.03%[15] - Guangzhou Pengyue Automobile Development Co., Ltd. obtained a credit line of up to RMB 2.35 billion from a group of Chinese banks for operational expenses[17] - As of June 30, 2024, the company had drawn RMB 210 million from the credit line with an actual annual interest rate of 3.61%[17] - The company completed asset-backed securitization (ABS) with proceeds of RMB 1.77 billion, with the current and non-current portions of ABS balances at RMB 580 million and RMB 220 million respectively as of June 30, 2024[17] - The company issued asset-backed notes (ABN) with proceeds of RMB 840 million, with the current and non-current portions of ABN balances at RMB 210 million and RMB 10 million respectively as of June 30, 2024[17] - The company's leverage ratio was 33.8% as of June 30, 2024, up from 30.0% as of December 31, 2023[19] - The company had capital commitments of RMB 420 million and RMB 540 million for the purchase of property, plant, and equipment for its Guangzhou, Zhaoqing, and Wuhan facilities[20] - The company had restricted cash and deposits of RMB 5.27 billion as collateral for bank loans and other obligations as of June 30, 2024[18] - The company's total assessed value of collateral for long-term bank loans was RMB 5.36 billion as of June 30, 2024[18] - The company raised net proceeds of RMB 5,019,599 from Volkswagen's strategic minority investment in December 2023[63] R&D and Expenses - R&D expenses for the first half of 2024 were RMB 2,817,200 thousand, a 5.8% increase from RMB 2,662,961 thousand in the same period of 2023[34] - R&D expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 2,817,200, compared to RMB 2,662,961 for the same period in 2023[115] - Advertising expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 302,064, compared to RMB 149,697 for the same period in 2023[115] - Total sales and marketing expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 2,332,547, compared to RMB 2,158,450 for the same period in 2023[115] - General and administrative expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 629,501, compared to RMB 771,795 for the same period in 2023[115] Subsidiaries and Investments - XPeng launched the MONA M03, a smart pure electric hatchback, in the Chinese market on August 27, 2024, with three variants, including the Max version featuring the XNGP intelligent driving system[7] - XPeng's major subsidiaries include Guangzhou Chengxing Zhidong Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., with a paid-up capital of RMB 3,222,800[51] - Guangzhou Xiaopeng Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., another major subsidiary, has a paid-up capital of RMB 6,126,316[51] - Zhaoqing Xiaopeng New Energy Investment Co., Ltd., a subsidiary focused on automobile manufacturing, has a paid-up capital of RMB 8,000,000[51] - XPeng's subsidiary, Wuhan Xiaopeng Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd., is involved in manufacturing battery packs and electric drive systems[53] - XPeng's variable interest entity, Guangzhou Zhilian Internet Technology Co., Ltd., focuses on the development and operation of automotive internet networks[55] - XPeng Technology acquired 50% equity of ZhiPeng Internet of Vehicles in 2021, consolidating its financial performance under US GAAP[58] - ZhiPeng Internet of Vehicles established XinTu Technology in 2021, which acquired 100% equity of ZhiPeng Space[56] - XPeng Technology revised contracts to reflect changes in ZhiPeng Internet of Vehicles' equity and nominee shareholders in 2024[58] - YiDian Mobility, a variable interest entity, was consolidated into the company's financial statements under US GAAP[58] - XPeng Mobility acquired 50% equity of YiDian Mobility in 2021, consolidating its financial performance under US GAAP[59] - Contracts for YiDian Mobility were revised in 2024 to reflect changes in nominee shareholders[59] - As of June 30, 2024, XinTu Technology had no significant business, assets, or liabilities[56] - As of June 30, 2024, ZhiPeng Internet of Vehicles had no significant business, assets, or liabilities[58] - As of June 30, 2024, YiDian Mobility had no significant business, assets, or liabilities[59] - Guangdong Zhixuan, a variable interest entity, was consolidated into the company's unaudited financial statements as of June 30, 2024, with no significant business, assets, or liabilities[60][61] Financial Statements and Accounting - The unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements were prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP and should be read in conjunction with the audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023[64] - The financial statements include the company, its subsidiaries, and variable interest entities where the company is the primary beneficiary[65] - The company uses estimates and assumptions in preparing unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements, affecting reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses[66] - Management bases estimates on historical experience and reasonable assumptions, but actual results may differ from these estimates[67] - The company's functional currency is RMB, with subsidiaries using USD or local currencies, and foreign currency transactions are translated into the functional currency at the exchange rate on the transaction date[68] - Business combinations are accounted for using the acquisition method, with goodwill recognized if the purchase price exceeds the fair value of identifiable net assets[69] - Fair value is determined based on market participant assumptions, using observable inputs as much as possible, and classified into three levels based on the significance of inputs[70] - The company uses market quotes or valuation techniques to determine fair value, with financial assets and liabilities measured at amortized cost or fair value[71] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets decreased to RMB 44,733,118 thousand from RMB 54,521,629 thousand[30] - Total assets decreased to RMB 74,998,789 thousand from RMB 84,162,541 thousand[30] - Total current liabilities decreased to RMB 29,796,199 thousand from RMB 36,111,562 thousand[32] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 40,993,423 thousand from RMB 47,834,014 thousand[32] - Shareholders' equity decreased to RMB 34,005,366 thousand from RMB 36,328,527 thousand[33] - Accumulated deficit increased to RMB (38,432,174) thousand from RMB (35,760,301) thousand[33] - Total equity as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 34,005,366 thousand, a 6.4% decrease from RMB 36,328,527 thousand as of December 31, 2023[38] - Total equity as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,731,103,684 thousand, up from RMB 1,725,402,056 thousand at the end of 2023[41] Inventory and Receivables - Total inventory increased to $5,565,776 thousand from $5,526,212 thousand, with finished goods accounting for $4,228,355 thousand[133] - Inventory write-downs to net realizable value amounted to $710,136 thousand, including $35,000 thousand due to excess raw materials from the planned discontinuation of P5 production[133] - Accounts receivable aged over 1 year decreased to $1,492,931 thousand from $2,107,934 thousand[130] - Accounts receivable, net decreased to $2,135,141 thousand from $2,689,310 thousand[128] Investments and Fair Value - Short-term financial instrument investments decreased to RMB 250,967 as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 781,216 as of December 31, 2023[83] - The company uses the cost minus impairment measurement alternative for equity investments without readily determinable fair values, adjusting based on observable price changes on a non-recurring basis[95] - Certain debt investments, including convertible bonds and preferred shares, are measured at fair value under the fair value option, with unrealized gains/losses reported in the unaudited condensed comprehensive loss statement[96] - Long-term assets are assessed for impairment when events indicate the carrying amount may not be fully recoverable, with impairment loss recognized if undiscounted cash flows are less than the carrying amount[97] - Short-term investments valued at $250,967 thousand, classified under Level 2 of the fair value hierarchy[125] - Debt investments valued at $1,224,487 thousand, classified under Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy[125] - Equity investments with readily determinable fair values valued at $85,887 thousand, classified under Level 1 of the fair value hierarchy[125] - Derivative liabilities related to contingent consideration valued at $208,974 thousand, classified under Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy[125] Warranty and Revenue Recognition - The company provides standard manufacturer warranties for all vehicles sold, with warranty provisions based on best estimates of future costs, which are subject to significant changes due to the company's relatively short sales history[98] - Revenue is recognized when control of goods or services is transferred to the customer, either over time or at a point in time, based on contract terms and applicable laws[99] - Contracts with customers may include multiple performance obligations, with the total contract price allocated based on relative standalone selling prices, using observable data or estimation methods[100] - Contract assets and liabilities are recognized on the unaudited condensed consolidated balance sheet based on the relationship between the company's performance and customer payments[101] - Revenue from electric vehicle sales includes embedded products and services such as free battery charging for 4 or 6 years or 100,000 km, extended lifetime warranty, and lifetime free charging at Xiaopeng supercharging stations[102] - Government subsidies for electric vehicle purchases in China expired on January 1, 2023, and were previously deducted from the customer's payment[102] - The company uses the straight-line method to recognize revenue for vehicle internet connectivity services and battery warranties due to limited operating history[104] - Revenue from XPILOT, the intelligent driving system, is recognized upon delivery of the smart driving features to the customer[104] - The company provides technical licensing and R&D services, with revenue recognized based on the progress of contract completion[107] - Lifetime road assistance, traffic ticket inquiry services, and other value-added services are considered non-performance obligations and account for less than 1% of the total vehicle sales price[108] - The company offered two options to 2019 G3 car owners: loyalty points valid for 5 years or an enhanced trade-in right starting from the 34th month after purchase[110] - The loyalty points are considered a separate performance obligation and are recorded as contract liabilities (deferred revenue)[110] - The trade-in right allows 2019 G3 owners to trade in their car at a fixed predetermined percentage of the original purchase price when buying a new car from the company[112] - The trade-in right is valid for 120 days and is considered part of a single transaction providing a loyalty discount[112] Government Subsidies and Other Income - Government subsidies recognized as other income amounted to RMB 352,883 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 48,005 for the same period in 2023[116] - Other income, net for the first half of 2024 was RMB 352,883 thousand, a 635.3% increase from RMB 48,005 thousand in the same period of 2023[34] Share-Based Compensation and Dividends - The company uses the fair value method to account for share-based compensation, with assumptions based on management's best estimates[117] - No dividends were declared for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023[118] Segment Reporting and Foreign Currency Risk - The company operates as a single reportable segment with the majority of long-term assets located in China[119] - The company is evaluating new accounting standards updates, including improvements to segment reporting and income tax disclosures, with expected adoption by December 31, 2024[120] - The majority of the company's cash and cash equivalents are held in reputable financial institutions in China and abroad[121] - The company's foreign currency risk is primarily related to overseas financing activities denominated in USD, with RMB not freely convertible[122] Property, Plant, and Equipment - Depreciation expenses rose to 864,186 thousand from 623,073 thousand, driven by accelerated depreciation on certain production facilities[137] - Property, plant, and equipment net value decreased to 10,467,934 thousand from 10,954,485 thousand, with significant depreciation and impairment charges[138] - Accumulated impairment losses increased to 112,116 thousand from 107,010 thousand, primarily due to vehicle upgrades[139] - Construction in progress increased to 968,351 thousand from 663,640 thousand, reflecting ongoing investments in manufacturing facilities[138] - Leasehold improvements decreased to 640,564 thousand from 695,972

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|小鹏汽车-W（09868） 小鹏汽车 2024 年 8 月点评： Mona 火爆销量提升，打通 AI 全产业链 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月05日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 9 月 1 日，小鹏汽车公布 8 月交付数据。2024 年 8 月小鹏汽车共交付新车 14,036 台， 同比增长 3%，环比增长 26%。2024 年 1 月至 8 月，小鹏汽车累计交付新车共 77,209 台，同比 增长 17%。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月05日 小鹏汽车-W(09868) 小鹏汽车 2024 年 8 月点评： Mona 火爆销量提升，打通 AI 全产业链 事件： | --- | --- | --- | |------------|------------------------|-----------------| | | | | | 行 | 业： | 汽车/乘用车 | | | 投资 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 8 月销量稳步提升，M03 助力订单提振 2024 年 09 月 05 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|----------|------------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 26855 | 30676 | 38689 | 74244 | 109029 | | 同比 (%) | 27.95 | 14.23 | 26.12 | 91.90 | 46.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (9139) | (10376) | (5687) | (2417) | 2723 | | 同比 (%) | (87.92) | (13.53) | 45.19 | 57.50 | 212.70 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / ...