◎记者 徐潇潇 2026年开年，特斯拉、蔚来、小米等车企发起"7年超低息"车贷竞赛。近期，东风日产推出"0首付，8年 贷"方案，让竞争愈发激烈。 从传统的1至5年期到如今的7至8年期，这场看似"普惠"的营销背后，是车企在新能源渗透率突破54%的 市场变局中的焦虑和突围。然而，当贷款期限超越产品换代周期，当车辆残值难抵未还贷款，在"低月 供"的诱惑之下，一系列隐忧也悄然浮现。 车贷期限"卷"到8年 他表示，传统车贷以车辆为抵押物，期限与车辆残值周期紧密挂钩。如今，"8年贷"已远超一般电动车 的主流换车周期。金融机构的风险模型正在从"资产覆盖风险"转向"用户信用风险"。 在深圳一家东风日产门店，销售人员对上海证券报记者表示："这款车的裸车价是12.99万元，加上购置 税、保险和上牌费，全部落地大概14万元。如果选择8年分期，总利息约27000元，加上裸车的车价，日 供55元左右；选择分期会有2000元政府补贴。" 目前，东风日产已将这一超长期金融方案扩展至全系车型，覆盖N6、N7、轩逸经典等主力车型，同样 支持96期0首付分期。其中，轩逸经典日供最低可至27元。上述销售人员介绍，合作的东风日产汽车金 融是正规持牌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of US$23.80, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current price of US$17.54 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite short-term sales fluctuations, the overall growth trend for the year remains intact, with expectations of a 126% year-over-year increase in total vehicle sales for 2025 [6]. - The company is set to launch multiple new models and advance its physical AI applications in 2026, positioning itself as a leader in the autonomous driving and robotics sectors [7]. - The earnings forecasts have been revised downward due to anticipated sales pressure in Q1 2026, with a significant reduction in expected EPS for 2026 [8]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2026 is RMB 100,770 million, reflecting a 36.3% year-over-year increase, while the expected gross margin is adjusted to 17.9% [9][10]. - The company anticipates delivering 509,000 vehicles in 2026, which is an 18.5% increase from the previous year [10]. - The report indicates a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 890 million for 2026, a significant decrease of 64.6% from prior estimates [8][10].

天眼查工商信息显示，近日，合肥鹏绍汽车销售服务有限公司成立，法定代表人为陈志远，注册资本 500万人民币，经营范围含汽车销售、新能源汽车整车销售、新能源汽车电附件销售、机动车充电销 售、电池零配件销售、商务代理代办服务、信息咨询服务、二手车经纪等。股权全景穿透图显示，该公 司由合肥鹏智汽车销售服务有限公司全资持股，后者为小鹏汽车销售有限公司全资子公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from JPMorgan indicates that the performance of the Chinese automotive market in 2023 will exhibit a mixed trend reminiscent of both 2018 and 2025, with overall passenger vehicle market growth expected to decline into negative territory, similar to 2018, while market volatility may increase due to new model releases and seasonal trends, akin to 2025 [1] Market Performance - The overall performance of the automotive industry is anticipated to be relatively weak due to the decline in market growth [1] - The potential for absolute or relative returns will depend on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations, which is expected to be more challenging amid rising costs [1] Investment Recommendations - The preferred stocks identified by the firm are Geely Automobile (00175) and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) [1] - Companies such as BYD Company (01211), Leap Motor (09863), Xpeng Motors-W (09868), and NIO Inc. (09866, NIO.US) may present noteworthy investment opportunities in March or the second quarter of this year [1] - Conversely, the rating for Li Auto-W (02015) has been downgraded to "Reduce" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the performance of the Chinese automotive market in 2023 will exhibit a mixed trend reminiscent of both 2018 and 2025 [1] - The overall passenger car market growth has fallen into negative territory, similar to the situation in 2018, suggesting a potentially weak industry performance for the year [1] - Market fluctuations throughout the year may intensify due to new model releases, seasonal trends, and changes in profit expectations, akin to the dynamics observed in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The ability to achieve absolute or relative returns will depend on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations, which is expected to be more challenging amid rising costs [1] - The preferred stocks identified by the bank are Geely Automobile (00175) and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) [1] - The bank also sees potential investment opportunities in BYD Company (01211), Leap Motor (09863), Xpeng Motors (09868), and NIO Inc. (09866) that may arise in March or the second quarter of this year [1] - Conversely, the rating for Ideal Automotive (02015) has been downgraded to "Reduce" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, highlighting the potential for growth driven by technological advancements and market dynamics [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new vehicle announcements and the upcoming Q1-Q2 product cycles, particularly for companies like Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD, Great Wall Motors, and others, driven by enhanced product capabilities due to new technologies [2]. - Tesla's AI transformation is noted as a significant market expectation, with a focus on the valuation flexibility within the robotics supply chain [2]. - The report identifies smart technology as a key growth area for the year, with expectations for Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to gain traction in China, benefiting companies like Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, and others [2]. - Domestic cost pressures are acknowledged, leading to a cautious stance on annual profit forecasts, while overseas export opportunities for companies like BYD and Geely are viewed positively [2]. Industry Updates - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of January were 50,000 units, representing a 22% year-on-year decline and a 31% month-on-month decline [2]. - Recent weeks have seen a decrease in traditional and new energy raw material price indices, with traditional vehicle raw material prices down by 2.8% week-on-week and 1.0% month-on-month, and new energy vehicle raw material prices down by 6.7% week-on-week and 2.7% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value in the automotive sector for the week was 530.697 billion yuan, a 22.58% decrease from the previous week, while the automotive industry index rose by 0.32% [2][11]. Market Situation - The automotive industry index closed at 8023.01 points, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.33% [11]. - A total of 141 automotive stocks rose, while 127 fell, with the largest gainers being Kailong High-Tech, Xingmin Zhitong, and Yinlun, which saw increases of 72.8%, 21.3%, and 17.1% respectively [16]. - Key events included the release of the 404th batch of new vehicle approvals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which included several notable models from various manufacturers [3][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leveraging AI and smart technology, particularly new entrants like Xpeng and NIO, as well as established players with overseas business support like BYD and Geely [2]. - It highlights the potential for significant changes driven by state-owned enterprise reforms, with attention on SAIC and Dongfeng [2]. - In the components sector, companies involved in robotics and data center cooling are expected to transition from thematic investments to industry trends, with a focus on firms with strong performance and valuation potential [2].

据小鹏汽车官方微博消息，小鹏X9荣获泰国2025年下半年纯电MPV销量第一。小鹏X9在国内也持续热 销，2026年1月，成为最快交付量破5万台的新势力MPV。 据悉，该车型定位为高端旗舰大七座MPV，专为"全球大家庭"设计。小鹏X9累计交付51897台，成为最 快交付破5万台的新势力MPV车型。同时，2026年1月交付量突破4219台，同比增长413.9%。 责任编辑：王翔 据小鹏汽车官方微博消息，小鹏X9荣获泰国2025年下半年纯电MPV销量第一。小鹏X9在国内也持续热 销，2026年1月，成为最快交付量破5万台的新势力MPV。 据悉，该车型定位为高端旗舰大七座MPV，专为"全球大家庭"设计。小鹏X9累计交付51897台，成为最 快交付破5万台的新势力MPV车型。同时，2026年1月交付量突破4219台，同比增长413.9%。 责任编辑：王翔 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced a collective rise, driven by positive signals from the Ministry of Commerce regarding future automotive consumption policies [1] - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting to discuss automotive circulation and consumption, indicating a commitment to support and reform the automotive sector by 2026 [1] - Analysts interpret the signals from the meeting as a positive indication for automotive consumption support policies, providing a clear expectation for industry stabilization and structural growth direction [1] Group 2 - BYD shares rose approximately 4% to a latest price of 96.950, while Chery Automobile increased by over 2% to 28.620 [2] - Other automotive companies also saw gains, including Li Auto (1.39% increase), Leap Motor (1.41% increase), NIO (1.29% increase), and Geely (1.15% increase) [2] - The overall positive trend in the automotive sector reflects investor confidence in the upcoming policy changes and market support initiatives [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong automotive stocks have collectively risen, with significant gains observed in companies like BYD, Chery, and others, following a meeting held by the Ministry of Commerce regarding automotive consumption policies for 2026 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement a series of measures to boost automotive consumption, including optimizing the vehicle trade-in program and conducting pilot reforms in automotive circulation [1] - Analysts interpret the signals from the Ministry's meeting as positive, viewing it as a "starting gun" for supportive automotive consumption policies in 2026, which provides a clear expectation for industry support and structural growth direction [1] Group 2 - BYD shares rose approximately 4% to a latest price of 96.950, while Chery Automotive increased by over 2% to 28.620 [2] - Other automotive companies also saw gains, with Li Auto up 1.39%, Leap Motor up 1.41%, NIO up 1.29%, and Geely up 1.15% [2] - The overall positive sentiment in the automotive sector is reflected in the stock performance of various companies, indicating investor confidence in future growth driven by government policies [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is facing significant challenges in 2026, with predictions of a decline in sales due to economic pressures and changing consumer behavior, despite some optimistic forecasts for growth in exports and specific segments like new energy vehicles [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - In 2026, the overall automotive sales in China are expected to range between 34.5 million to 35 million units, with a potential decline in domestic retail sales by over 5% if no significant policy changes occur [3][7]. - January 2026 data shows a dramatic decline in retail sales, with a 28% year-on-year drop, indicating a challenging start to the year [6]. - Various institutions predict a range of outcomes for 2026, with the most pessimistic forecasts suggesting a 7% decline in sales, while the most optimistic predict only a 1% increase [4][7][8]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Influences - Key factors affecting the market include adjustments to subsidy policies for new energy vehicles, which have shifted from full exemptions to partial reductions, impacting consumer purchasing behavior [6][9]. - The decline in consumer confidence and shrinking middle-class income due to economic downturns are expected to further suppress automotive sales [6][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, with a shift from price wars to a focus on technological advancements and value creation as companies seek to stabilize their market positions [12][16]. - Major players are adjusting their sales targets, with some aiming for significant growth while others adopt more conservative strategies in response to market conditions [18][19]. Group 4: Export Opportunities - Exports are projected to be a key growth area, with expectations of a 12-15% increase, potentially reaching 8 million units, which could help offset domestic market declines [22][26]. - The global supply chain dynamics are pushing Chinese automotive companies to enhance their international presence, with a focus on building global production and R&D capabilities [26][28]. Group 5: Segment-Specific Insights - The new energy vehicle segment is anticipated to grow, with retail sales expected to increase by 12-15%, driven by favorable policies for mid-range models [9][10]. - The large six-seat SUV market is projected to maintain strong growth, with expectations of a 30-50% increase in sales, despite overall market challenges [31][32].