Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.064 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 72 million yuan, a decrease of 67.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is facing pressure on profit margins due to weak demand, with a net profit margin of 2.4% for H1 2024, down 5.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is adjusting its expansion strategy, lowering its store opening targets due to the complex external environment [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 6,357 in 2024E, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 180 million yuan in 2024E, reflecting a significant decrease of 60.4% year-on-year [2] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.13 yuan per share for 2024E, with a P/E ratio of 18 [2] Brand Performance - The brand "Tai Er" achieved a revenue of 2.248 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a store operating profit margin of 13.8%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - "Song Hot Pot" reported a revenue of 431 million yuan in H1 2024, with a store operating profit margin of 8.6%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has seen a decrease in customer traffic and profitability across its brands due to external demand weakness [4] Store Expansion Strategy - The company has revised its store opening targets for the year, with "Tai Er" planning to open 80 new stores in mainland China, down from the original target of 80-100 [4] - "Song Hot Pot" plans to open 25 new stores, reduced from 35-40 [4] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 180 million, 231 million, and 302 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to ongoing operational pressures [5] - The dynamic P/E ratios for the company are projected to be 18, 14, and 11 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Jiujiu (9922 HK) to "Overweight" from a previous higher rating, reflecting the company's short-term performance pressure but acknowledging its potential for stable growth post-adjustments [5] Core Views - Jiujiu's H1 2024 performance was under pressure, with revenue increasing by 6 4% YoY to RMB 3 064 billion, but net profit attributable to shareholders plummeting by 67 5% YoY to RMB 72 291 million [3] - The company faced challenges with declining demand, leading to both volume and price drops across its major brands, including Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiujiu [3] - Jiujiu has adjusted its full-year store opening guidance downward due to weak consumer demand and intensified industry competition, with Tai Er and Song Hotpot reducing their expansion plans [4] Performance by Brand Tai Er - H1 2024 revenue increased by 2 7% YoY to RMB 2 248 billion, but same-store sales declined by 15 5% YoY [3] - The brand added 36 new stores, bringing the total to 614 nationwide, but saw a decline in key metrics such as seat turnover rate (down to 2 7 times/day from 3 1 times/day in H1 2023) and table turnover rate (down to 3 8 times/day from 4 3 times/day) [3] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 4 to RMB 71, reflecting menu and pricing adjustments [3] Song Hotpot - H1 2024 revenue grew by 22 5% YoY to RMB 431 million, but same-store sales dropped sharply by 34 7% YoY [3] - The brand added 11 new stores, but experienced declines in seat turnover rate (down to 2 0 times/day from 2 8 times/day) and table turnover rate (down to 2 9 times/day from 3 9 times/day) [3] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 11 to RMB 110 [3] Jiujiu - H1 2024 revenue decreased by 8 1% YoY to RMB 292 million, with same-store sales down by 8 5% YoY [3] - The brand closed 5 stores during the period, but saw a slight improvement in seat turnover rate (up to 1 8 times/day from 1 7 times/day) [3] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 3 to RMB 56 [3] Cost Structure - Employee costs as a percentage of revenue increased significantly by 4 3 percentage points YoY to 29 2% in H1 2024, driven by store network expansion and preparations for a new central kitchen [4] - Raw material costs as a percentage of revenue decreased slightly by 0 4 percentage points to 35 8%, benefiting from reduced procurement costs [4] - The company's net profit margin dropped by 5 4 percentage points YoY to 2 4% in H1 2024 [4] Strategic Adjustments - Jiujiu has opened up franchising for Tai Er and its new brand Shan Waimian to accelerate regional and international expansion [4] - The company is focusing on product quality improvement, menu diversification, and promotional activities to attract customers and increase repeat purchases [4] - Song Hotpot has simplified its brand positioning and is focusing on the Guangdong market, while planning to close some underperforming stores in other regions [4] Financial Forecasts - The report significantly lowers Jiujiu's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with 2024 estimates reduced by 68% to RMB 210 million [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 15x, 10x, and 8x respectively, reflecting the current valuation levels [5]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 九毛九 （9922.HK） 九毛九（9922.HK）：短期翻台率难见起 色，门店扩张恐受限，下调至"持有" 公司 1H24 各个主品牌的线下客流都面临较大的压力，翻台率大幅下滑。 客单价下降与翻台率下滑带来显著的经营负杠杆，导致门店经营利润率 恶化。管理层决定采取更审慎的开店策略，并下调 2024 年的开店指引。 我们预计 2H24 翻台率仍将持续承压，且不排除公司进一步下修开店指 引，甚至较大规模关店的可能。基于宏观经济及餐饮行业短期较大的不 确定性，我们抱着谨慎的态度下调九毛九至"持有"评级，并下调目标 价至 2.81 港元。 主要品牌翻台率预计持续承压：我们此前预计公司 1H24 主动下调 太二与怂火锅的客单价有望吸引更多客流，从而抵御餐饮行业需求 下滑的影响。然而，太二及怂火锅 1H24 的翻台率同比皆录得大幅下 降，且 2Q24 低于 1Q24。管理层表示 7-8 月暑期旺季的客流依然较 弱，预计 3Q24 的同店销售下降幅度与 2Q24 相近，但 4Q24 有望在 低基数下边际改善。公司 2H24 将减小折扣力度，更聚焦产品的质 量，希望通 ...

27 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) Transforming despite tough macro backdrop HOLD (Maintain) The 1H24 results were inline but the underlying was slightly positive (e.g. resilient GP margin, as well as the restaurant-level OP margin). We agree that both Tai Er and Song are making loads of efforts to transform, but under such a tough industry and macro environment, we would not be able to turn positive, unless we can really see a compelling impr ...

Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 3,064.2 million, an increase of 6.4% compared to RMB 2,879.4 million for the same period in 2023[6]. - The period profit decreased by 71.5% to RMB 68.0 million from RMB 238.4 million in the same period last year[6]. - The adjusted net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 77.2 million, down from RMB 247.9 million in 2023[2]. - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 86,510 thousand, compared to RMB 320,934 thousand in the previous year, reflecting a significant decline[72]. - Basic earnings per share for the period was RMB 0.05, down from RMB 0.15 in the same period last year[71]. Restaurant Operations and Expansion - The company opened 59 new restaurants in the first half of 2024, including 38 Tai Er restaurants and 13 Chong Hot Pot restaurants[7]. - As of June 30, 2024, the company operated 766 self-operated restaurants and 5 franchised/cooperative restaurants across 145 cities in China and several international locations[6]. - The company plans to open 25 new "Sichuan Hot Pot" restaurants and 80 new "Tai Er" restaurants in mainland China in 2024[14]. - The company introduced a new brand, "Shan Wai Mian," in February 2024, and is exploring franchise opportunities in various regions[6]. - The company sold the "Na Mei Da Shu Shi Da Chu" brand in April 2024 and closed 14 restaurants during the first half of 2024[9]. Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth for self-operated restaurants was -15.5%[4]. - The average customer spending for self-operated restaurants decreased to RMB 71 from RMB 75 in the previous year[4]. - Revenue contribution from the brand "Sichuan Hot Pot" increased by 22.5%[11]. - Same-store sales for "Tai Er" decreased by 15.5% to RMB 1,708,563 thousand, compared to RMB 2,021,142 thousand in 2023[12]. - Revenue from Taier increased by 2.7% from RMB 2,188.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 2,248.4 million for the same period in 2024, despite a decline in table turnover and customer spending[20]. Financial Position and Assets - The group's inventory increased by 10.9% from RMB 132.1 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 146.5 million as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to the expansion of the restaurant network[47]. - Total assets increased slightly from RMB 6,520.9 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 6,525.2 million as of June 30, 2024, while total liabilities rose from RMB 3,163.9 million to RMB 3,359.9 million[54]. - Trade receivables increased by 47.1% from RMB 376 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 553 million as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to restaurant network expansion and increased sales to third parties[50]. - Non-current assets as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 4,066,684 thousand, an increase from RMB 3,714,972 thousand as of December 31, 2023[74]. Costs and Expenses - Employee costs rose by 24.6% from RMB 717.6 million to RMB 894.1 million, with its share of revenue increasing from 24.9% to 29.2%[28]. - Cost of materials and supplies increased by 5.3% from RMB 1,042.4 million to RMB 1,097.2 million, with its proportion of revenue decreasing from 36.2% to 35.8%[27]. - Depreciation of right-of-use assets increased by 26.1% from RMB 227.4 million to RMB 286.7 million, with its proportion of revenue rising from 7.9% to 9.4%[29]. - Financing costs increased by 24.8% from RMB 42.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 53.3 million for the same period in 2024, mainly due to increased lease liabilities interest from the expansion of the restaurant network[38]. - Advertising and promotion expenses increased by 46.7% from RMB 32.1 million to RMB 47.1 million, with its share of revenue rising from 1.1% to 1.5%[34]. Shareholder and Corporate Governance - The company did not recommend an interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024, consistent with the previous period[63]. - The company has maintained compliance with corporate governance codes, with a commitment to high standards of ethics and transparency[109]. - The audit committee consists of three independent non-executive directors, ensuring the integrity and accuracy of the group's financial information[112]. - The board expresses gratitude to shareholders, suppliers, and customers for their continued support and trust[114]. Other Financial Metrics - The group's share of losses from associates decreased by 41.4% from RMB 2.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 1.7 million for the same period in 2024, mainly due to reduced losses from invested associates[36]. - Other income surged by 339.5% from RMB 21.0 million to RMB 92.3 million, mainly due to contributions from new product launches and increased sales to third parties[21]. - The net loss from other losses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB (29,495,000), an improvement from RMB (57,246,000) for the same period in 2023[82]. - The company confirmed share-based payment expenses of RMB 0 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 491,000 for the same period in 2023[95].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Hold" with a target price of HK$2.70, reflecting a 56% reduction from the previous target price of HK$6.10 [1][3]. Core Views - The investment logic regarding the replicability of the "Tai Er" business model faces challenges, leading to uncertainties in future development [1][3]. - The estimated market capitalization of Jiumaojiu Group is likely between HK$25 billion and HK$55 billion, indicating that the current risk-reward ratio is not clearly defined [1][3]. - The report anticipates a significant decline in the company's performance, with a projected 54.6% drop in net profit for 2024 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current rating is "Hold" with a target price of HK$2.70, down from HK$6.10 [1][3]. Financial Performance - The report projects a 2024 revenue of RMB 6.49 billion, a decrease of 6.7% from previous estimates [1][10]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 240 million, reflecting a 54.6% reduction [1][10]. - The 2025 EPS is revised down to RMB 0.25, a 40.4% decrease from earlier forecasts [1][10]. Market Analysis - The report highlights that the average market capitalization of Jiumaojiu is estimated to be around HK$40 billion, with a current market value of HK$38 billion [1][9]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that under different scenarios, the market value could range from HK$25 billion to HK$55 billion [1][9]. Business Model Challenges - The report notes that the business model of "Tai Er" is facing replicability challenges, which may hinder future growth [1][3]. - The company has adjusted its store opening guidance for 2024 from 35-40 stores to 25 stores, indicating a more cautious approach [1][3].

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Industry or Company Involved - The discussion pertains to the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on various brands within the industry Core Points and Arguments - There has been a noticeable decline in daily sales statistics across various brands, which can be attributed to the effects of QE [1] - The decline in sales has been felt since the beginning of the year, indicating a longer-term trend rather than a short-term fluctuation [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of QE suggests a broader economic context that may influence consumer behavior and spending patterns, which could have implications for future sales and market strategies [1]

22 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) We see risks in 2H24E after the miss in 2Q24 HOLD (Down) Jiumaojiu issued a profit warning for 1H24, which is still awful compared to our already negative outlook. With risks to linger in the near future (SSSG drop may sustain and store expansion may also slow down, etc.), plus the fairly high valuation (23x FY24E P/E), we now cut our FY24E-26E net profit forecasts by 69%-57% and downgrade the stock to HOLD. ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the stock rating to "Hold" from "Buy" due to a challenging outlook for the second half of 2024 and high valuation concerns [2]. Core Views - The company has issued a profit warning for the first half of 2024, with expected net profit of approximately 67 million RMB, a 70% decline year-on-year [2]. - The same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the second quarter of 2024 has worsened, with declines of 18% for Tai Er, 37% for Song, and 13% for JMJ, compared to previous quarter declines [2]. - The report anticipates continued risks in the near future, including potential slowdowns in store expansion and ongoing declines in same-store sales [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24E is projected at 7,128 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3]. - Net profit for FY24E is expected to be 209.9 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 56.9% compared to FY23A [3]. - The report revises net profit estimates for FY24E to FY26E down by 69% to 57% [2][4]. Revenue Adjustments - The revenue forecast for FY24E has been adjusted down by 13.5% compared to previous estimates, with a new projection of 7,128 million RMB [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY24E is expected to be 63.3%, slightly lower than previous estimates [4]. Market Valuation - The target price is set at 3.59 HKD, down from a previous target of 8.39 HKD, reflecting a 5.3% potential upside from the current price of 3.41 HKD [2]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 23 times FY24E earnings, which is considered high given the expected sales growth of 6% and a significant decline in net profit [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company plans to implement new business models, including franchising and satellite stores, to improve performance [2]. - Management is focusing on menu improvements, pricing strategies, and employee incentive programs to enhance operational efficiency [2].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 九毛九 原文 20240702_ 2024年07月03日08:29 发言人 00:02 各位投资人早上好，欢迎大家参加我们安心国际2024年的中期策略会。我们这一场是0.99元 的交流专场。我们非常荣幸的请到了公司的崔总和李总来跟大家交流一下公司的近况。今天也 是分为两个部分。首先先给公司这边介绍一下最近的一个经营状况，然后我们之后会进入问答 环节，我话不多说，就把时间交给公司这边。好，感谢安信的组织，也感谢各位投资者的关注， 我是0.99元的李景玉。 发言人 00:37 先跟大家简单回顾一下1到5月的一个情况，因为六月的数据暂时还没出，我们先以前五个月 的方向性的一个数据做一个交流。Q一的数据我们已经发了一个自愿性的公告。看到各个品牌 的一个同店日销同比2023年都是一个下滑的一个趋势。这个原因也是一个是去年全年来看，1 到8月到暑假结束前都还是一个相对的高基数。尤其是在年初的时候，还是有一波报复性消费 的那所以导致基数过高，各个品牌都出现了或多或少的同店日销的一个下滑。可以看到各个品 牌来看，他二是Q一的同店日销下滑了13.9%，红火锅的日销是下滑 ...