Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by favorable policies and recovery in overseas travel demand [1][2] Financial Performance - Overall Q1 revenue reached 13.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 0.22% [1] - Operating profit was 3.6 billion yuan with a margin of 26%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 7.34% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 8.99% [1] Business Segment Analysis - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.39% [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 0.20% [1] - Travel vacation revenue was 0.9 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, below Bloomberg consensus by 5.90% [1] - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4.36% [1] - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a 33% year-on-year increase, slightly below Bloomberg consensus by 0.96% [1] Growth Drivers - Overseas business saw a 60% year-on-year increase in OTA platform bookings, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [1] - In Q1, inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2%, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, with hotel orders increasing by over 240% [1] - The introduction of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy in December 2024 will expand the list of eligible countries to 54 and open 60 entry and exit points [1] Outbound Business - Outbound hotel and flight bookings have surpassed 120% of the same period in 2019, benefiting from the orderly recovery of capacity [2] - Cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83%-84% of 2019 levels, with predictions to reach 90% by the end of the year [2] Market Outlook - Hotel ADR (Average Daily Rate) saw a high single-digit decline in Q1, but the decline has narrowed in Q2, with low single-digit decreases during the May Day holiday [2] - With increasing travel demand and normalization of supply, hotel prices are expected to stabilize [2] Investment Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 12%, and 12% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3%, 16%, and 14% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% year-on-year), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% year-on-year) [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, driven by favorable visa-free policies, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [4][5] - The company expects revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: accommodation booking revenue of 5.5 billion (up 23% year-on-year), transportation ticketing revenue of 5.4 billion (up 8% year-on-year), and other business revenue of 1.4 billion (up 33% year-on-year) [4] - The company anticipates adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 16%, and 14% [7][10] - The total market capitalization is 34.79 billion HKD [9]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% YoY), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% YoY), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% YoY and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [4][5] - The company expects revenues of 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for the same years [7][10] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall revenue reached 13.8 billion (YoY +16%), slightly above consensus estimates by 0.22% - Operating profit was 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), exceeding consensus by 7.34% - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion (YoY +3%), surpassing consensus by 8.99% [4] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion (YoY +23%), above consensus by 1.39% - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion (YoY +8%), slightly above consensus by 0.20% - Vacation business revenue was 0.9 billion (YoY +7%), below consensus by 5.90% - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion (YoY +12%), above consensus by 4.36% - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion (YoY +33%), slightly below consensus by 0.96% [4] International Business Growth - The overseas OTA platform's booking volume increased by 60% YoY, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, largely due to strategic positioning and visa policy benefits - Inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2% YoY, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where hotel orders increased by over 240% [4][5] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion, with YoY growth rates of +3%, +16%, and +14% [7][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese companies have a clear insight into consumer trends and market dynamics, which drives their continuous expansion in the stable lodging and ticket booking sectors [1] - The domestic tourism market is experiencing rapid recovery post-pandemic, with four key factors expected to drive growth: lower-tier market consumers, the affluent elderly demographic, the enthusiastic Z generation, and the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism [1] - The current competitive landscape among OTA platforms is stable, and there is optimism regarding the diversification of domestic OTA platforms to enhance business growth [5] Group 2 - Despite the pressure on travel prices due to the rapid recovery of flights and hotel availability, it is anticipated that the decline in travel prices will stabilize by 2025, aided by structural changes in the travel demographic [2] - The OTA platform industry has become an integral part of daily life for Chinese consumers, with increasing penetration rates leading to rapid market growth [3] - Chinese OTA platforms are expanding their business scope through acquisitions and self-built initiatives, particularly in overseas markets, while also launching vacation services to capitalize on the recovery of inbound tourism and the popularity of customized travel [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations, driven by controlled marketing expenses and favorable foreign exchange gains [1][3]. Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 16% to 13.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations; non-GAAP net profit reached 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 9% [1]. - The company's hotel booking revenue in Q1 2025 was 5.54 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 1.4% [1]. Development Trends - Domestic tourism demand remains robust, with hotel prices expected to stabilize. The company anticipates a mid-to-low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night stays for Q2 2025, with a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1]. - For outbound travel, the company expects a 15-20% year-on-year increase in outbound flight and hotel bookings in Q2 2025, recovering to 120% of 2019 levels, despite challenges in the Thai market [2]. Growth Expectations - Trip.com is projected to achieve high growth, with international OTA bookings increasing over 60% in Q1, and inbound travel bookings nearly doubling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a 50%+ revenue growth rate for Trip.com in the second half of the year, supported by strong demand from inbound tourism policies and brand expansion into new markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 16.4 billion yuan and 18.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining revenue expectations [3]. - The target prices for the company's shares are set at $75.9 for US stocks and HK$588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a potential upside of 13% and 14% from current prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Trip.com Group achieved revenue of 13.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.18%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.188 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with revenue meeting expectations and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] Revenue Performance - Q1 revenue reached 13.85 billion RMB, aligning with guidance of 13.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Breakdown of revenue sources: - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.42 billion RMB, up 8.4% [1] - Hotel revenue: 5.54 billion RMB, up 23.2% [1] - Vacation revenue: 0.95 billion RMB, up 7.3% [1] - Business travel revenue: 0.57 billion RMB, up 12.1% [1] - Other revenue: 1.37 billion RMB, up 32.98% [1] - Domestic hotel booking volume growth reached high teens, with ADR decline being lower than the industry average [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross profit for Q1 was 11.125 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.08%, with a gross margin of 80.44%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was 4.188 billion RMB, corresponding to a net margin of 30.28%, down 3.78 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The increase in international business share and investment led to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [2] Future Projections - Expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 61.12 billion RMB and 70.96 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 14.68% and 16.10% respectively [3] - Projected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 17.383 billion RMB and 20.759 billion RMB, with corresponding net margins of 28.44% and 29.25% [3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 569.30 HKD, corresponding to an 18X PE for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 4.19 billion yuan, up 3.3%, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Domestic leisure travel demand has shown steady improvement, while outbound and international business continues to grow significantly, supported by optimized overseas marketing expenses [1][8]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the vast growth potential in overseas markets, with expectations of continued performance improvement as international operations mature and profitability enhances [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 44.51 billion yuan - 2024: 53.29 billion yuan (+20%) - 2025E: 61.81 billion yuan (+16%) - 2026E: 70.80 billion yuan (+15%) - 2027E: 80.91 billion yuan (+14%) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.92 billion yuan in 2023, reaching 23.99 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13% [3][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 19.11 yuan in 2023 to 37.56 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.2 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][12]. Business Performance - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 includes: - Accommodation bookings: 5.54 billion yuan (+23.2%) - Transportation ticketing: 5.42 billion yuan (+8.4%) - Travel vacation: 0.95 billion yuan (+7.2%) - Business travel management: 0.57 billion yuan (+12.1%) - Other businesses: 1.37 billion yuan (+33.0%) [8]. - The overall gross margin for the reporting period was 80.4%, slightly down by 0.8 percentage points, while the operating profit margin (OPM) was 29.2%, exceeding the expected 27.5% [8]. Market Outlook - The company’s outbound and international business continues to show high growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels, and international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a 15%-20% growth in outbound business for 2025, driven by high-margin outbound operations [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [6][3] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding market expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, while cross-border orders increased by 30%, with inbound bookings surging by 150% [3][2] - The company is expected to continue outperforming the overall tourism market in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement [3][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 80%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 4.2 billion, maintaining a net profit margin above 30% [2][3] Business Segment Analysis - Domestic business remains strong, with double-digit growth in hotel night stays and a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) expected in Q2 [3][2] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region [3][2] - The company anticipates that international business will account for over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term, expanding into the Middle East and Europe [3][2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][2] - The target price corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][2] - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million [3][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [3][6][23] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, and international bookings are expected to maintain high growth rates, contributing to long-term revenue support [3][4] - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 139 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 42 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin maintained above 30% [2][3] - The company expects continued growth in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement, with international OTA business projected to maintain high growth rates [3][5] Business Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains stable, while international operations are in an investment phase, with expectations for revenue growth to outpace the overall tourism market [3][4] - The company plans to expand its market presence from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East and Europe, with international business expected to contribute over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term [3][5] Shareholder Returns - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 4.2 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains strong, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on outbound business travel [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 61.694 billion, with a growth rate of 15.6%. This is a slight decrease from previous estimates [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 18.084 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 17.927 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 29.1% [4][14]. - **Segment Performance**: The hotel accommodation segment is projected to generate RMB 25.946 billion in 2025, while transportation ticketing is expected to contribute RMB 22.261 billion [4][8]. Market Position and Trends - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 3.20 million shares, indicating active market participation [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in hotel and transportation segments, with hotel nights in mainland China projected to increase by 10-15% and outbound hotel nights by 15-20% in the upcoming quarters [5][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to ease some pressure on monetization, allowing for more stable profit margins moving forward [5].