OTA运营中，流量和转化是酒店业永不过时的话题，在酒店供给过剩与消费分化的市场环境下，酒店业如何借势OTA进一步释放增长潜力？ 5月22日，在2025环球旅讯数智论坛·上海站，携程集团副总裁兼大住宿事业部大中华酒店业务总经理许一心以《如何在不确定的市场中明确增长策略》为 题，进行了主题分享。 以下是演讲实录，内容有删减： 今天我想和大家聊聊过去一年酒旅市场的一些情况，以及我们在波动中如何去把握市场机会、挖掘潜力。 先从一组数据说起，2024年国内旅游人次，同比增长了14.8%，今年一季度国内旅游人次同比增长了26.4%，五一的旅游人次再次创了历史新高，从某种 程度上反映出国人出行的意愿其实是在增强的。 从携程的数据来看，我们拿去年五一和今年五一的数据做了对比，发现了一个有意思的现象，去年五一的数据是"高开低走"，前面几天冲的很高，后面跳 水很明显，包括去年国庆、春节也基本是这个趋势，但到了今年五一，五天的走势基本上比较平稳，说明现在的出行市场又有了新的变化。 同时我们也注意到，2023年和2024年这两年酒店数量增长的很快，预计2025年高星级酒店也会保持12%左右的增长。侧面反应，实际上国内酒店供给是非 常 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company slightly exceeded profit expectations in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, which has led to a slight decline in profit margins, with a gross margin of 80.4% in Q1 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism increased by over 100% [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is 169.59 billion, 199.39 billion, and 226.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.63%, +17.57%, and +13.75% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 23.77, 27.94, and 31.79 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 275.05 billion, 297.69 billion, and 329.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited is notifying holders of its 1.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027 about their right to require the company to repurchase these notes for cash on July 1, 2025, under specific terms outlined in the Indentures [1][2][3] Group 1: Repurchase Right Details - Holders can require the company to repurchase all or a portion of their Exchangeable Notes, with a minimum amount of US$200,000 or integral multiples of US$1,000 [2][3] - The repurchase price will be 100% of the principal amount plus any accrued and unpaid interest up to July 1, 2025 [2] - The total outstanding amount of Exchangeable Notes as of May 27, 2025, is US$500,000,000, which means the total cash purchase price could reach US$500,000,000 if all notes are surrendered [2] Group 2: Timeline and Procedures - The opportunity to exercise the 2025 Repurchase Right starts on May 28, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. and ends on June 27, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. [3] - Holders must follow specific transmittal procedures outlined in the 2025 Repurchase Right Notice to exercise their rights [3] - Holders can withdraw previously tendered Exchangeable Notes until June 27, 2025 [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a comprehensive suite of travel products and services [7] - The company operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and aims to provide cost-effective travel solutions [7] - Founded in 1999 and listed on Nasdaq in 2003 and HKEX in 2021, the company continues to expand its reach among travelers worldwide [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 profit slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, contributing to revenue growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue and net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 624.84 billion (2025), 705.27 billion (2026), 793.32 billion (2027) - Net Profit: 169.59 billion (2025), 199.39 billion (2026), 226.82 billion (2027) [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 23.77 yuan in 2025, 27.94 yuan in 2026, and 31.79 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 19X in 2025, 16X in 2026, and 14X in 2027 [2]

Group 1: Internet Platform Companies - Tencent has a gross margin of 53% and a net margin of 33.7%, dominating the social media space [1] - Trip.com has a gross margin of 81.76% and a net margin of 32.02%, holding a market share of 65-70% in high-star hotels [1] - Pinduoduo reports a gross margin of 60.9% and a net margin of 28.6%, affected by losses from TEMU [1] - NetEase Games shows a gross margin of 57.14% and a net margin of 28.2% [1] Group 2: Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Brands - Leading FMCG brands like Nongfu Spring and Coca-Cola have net margins around 20%, with Coca-Cola at 22.6% due to its innovative business model [2] - Second-tier brands like PepsiCo and Nestlé have net margins around 10%, often due to insufficient brand loyalty or high pricing with low scale [3] - Third-tier brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President operate with net margins around 5%, relying on low prices for market share but struggling with brand loyalty and production scale [4] Group 3: Chain Beverage Companies - Top-tier chain beverage companies like Bawang Tea have a net margin of 20.3%, benefiting from brand premium [5] - Starbucks typically has a net margin of around 15%, but faces margin pressure due to increased competition [6] - Second-tier brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming have net margins of 17.94% and 16.99%, respectively, leveraging scale advantages [6] Group 4: Hardware Companies - Apple has a gross margin of 46.2% and a net margin of 24%, while Xiaomi has a gross margin of 20.4% and a net margin of 6.44% [8] - NVIDIA shows a gross margin of 78.9% and a net margin of 57%, compared to AMD's gross margin of 50.2% and net margin of 15.3% [8] Group 5: Business Insights - High net margins (above 30%) often indicate monopolistic products, while margins below 15% suggest competitive pressures [9] - Companies with single-digit net margins typically rely on price wars, indicating weak product differentiation and low competitive advantage [14] - Trends in gross and net margins can reveal significant insights about a company's market position, as seen with Tesla and BYD [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Ctrip's strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing innovation and service standards in the tourism industry [1] Group 2 - Ctrip announced the establishment of a 1 billion yuan tourism innovation fund to support breakthrough and innovative developments in the tourism sector [1] - The company has formed strategic partnerships with several international hotel groups from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia to improve regional hotel service standards through joint marketing and service upgrades [1] - Ctrip is collaborating with 10 domestic destinations and 5 overseas travel agencies to create a "two-way service hub" in response to the national strategy to promote inbound tourism [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth and positive operating profit margins, indicating a robust recovery in the travel sector [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached Rmb13.9 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb4 billion, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 29% [1]. - The company maintains its non-GAAP EPS forecasts of Rmb27.7 for 2025, Rmb29.7 for 2026, and Rmb30 for 2027 [1]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation reservation revenue increased by 23% year-over-year [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 8%, packaged tour revenue by 7%, corporate travel revenue by 12%, and other business revenue by 33% [2]. - Revenue breakdown by region: domestic (65% of total revenue, low teens growth), outbound (15%, 20% growth), and pure overseas (20%, 30%+ growth) [2]. Brand Contribution and Outlook - The Trip.com brand contributed 13% of total revenue, with over 50% year-over-year growth [3]. - For Q2 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 14% year-over-year, with domestic business in low teens, outbound travel up by 15%, and Trip.com brand growth exceeding 50% [3]. - The recovery rate of outbound travel compared to 2019 is projected to rise from 50% in Q1 2025 to 60% [3]. Market Position and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in China's online travel industry, with potential for market share gains internationally [4]. - The target price is maintained at HK$590, indicating a 22% upside, with a Buy rating sustained [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by favorable policies and recovery in overseas travel demand [1][2] Financial Performance - Overall Q1 revenue reached 13.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 0.22% [1] - Operating profit was 3.6 billion yuan with a margin of 26%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 7.34% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 8.99% [1] Business Segment Analysis - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.39% [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 0.20% [1] - Travel vacation revenue was 0.9 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, below Bloomberg consensus by 5.90% [1] - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4.36% [1] - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a 33% year-on-year increase, slightly below Bloomberg consensus by 0.96% [1] Growth Drivers - Overseas business saw a 60% year-on-year increase in OTA platform bookings, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [1] - In Q1, inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2%, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, with hotel orders increasing by over 240% [1] - The introduction of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy in December 2024 will expand the list of eligible countries to 54 and open 60 entry and exit points [1] Outbound Business - Outbound hotel and flight bookings have surpassed 120% of the same period in 2019, benefiting from the orderly recovery of capacity [2] - Cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83%-84% of 2019 levels, with predictions to reach 90% by the end of the year [2] Market Outlook - Hotel ADR (Average Daily Rate) saw a high single-digit decline in Q1, but the decline has narrowed in Q2, with low single-digit decreases during the May Day holiday [2] - With increasing travel demand and normalization of supply, hotel prices are expected to stabilize [2] Investment Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 12%, and 12% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3%, 16%, and 14% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [2]