Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 28.87, unchanged from the previous forecast [4] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 showed year-on-year growth, driven by a significant increase in the prices of second and third-generation refrigerants [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's favorable cycle as a leading player in third-generation refrigerants, especially with the implementation of the 2024 quota system [4] - Despite a lower-than-expected Q3 2024 performance due to declining prices of fluoropolymers and basic chemical products, the company's refrigerant business remains strong, with prices up 29.81% year-on-year [10] - The company's strategic expansion into high-value-added fluorochemical products and its leadership in third-generation refrigerants position it well for long-term growth [10] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 5.826 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, and net profit of CNY 423 million, a year-on-year increase of 64.76% [10] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 17.906 billion, up 11.83% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 1.258 billion, up 68.40% year-on-year [10] - The company's refrigerant production and sales in Q3 2024 were 141,100 tons and 85,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 21.73% and 10.46% [10] Industry and Market Position - The company holds a significant share of the third-generation refrigerant quota, with 37.4% of the total quota for R32, R134A, R125A, and R143A in 2025 [10] - The company's leadership in the refrigerant market is further strengthened by its ability to maintain stable prices and volumes despite policy changes [10] - The company is expanding its presence in high-value-added fluorochemical products, including the production of fourth-generation refrigerants and cooling fluids for data centers [10] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's revenue to grow from CNY 22.902 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.991 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from CNY 2.033 billion in 2024 to CNY 4.238 billion in 2026 [11] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from CNY 0.75 in 2024 to CNY 1.57 in 2026 [11] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2026, reflecting strong profitability and growth potential [11] Valuation and Comparables - The company's current P/E ratio is 27.87x for 2024, which is lower than the average P/E ratio of comparable companies at 27.15x [13] - The company's P/B ratio is 3.24x for 2024, indicating a reasonable valuation relative to its book value [11] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 17.23x in 2024 to 9.32x in 2026, suggesting improving valuation metrics [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 12% to 17.906 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 68% to 1.258 billion yuan [4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the rise in both volume and price of refrigerants, despite a sequential decline in Q3 sales volume [4]. - The report anticipates continued price increases for refrigerants in Q4, supported by a favorable supply-demand balance and regulatory changes [4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 20.99 yuan - Market capitalization: 56.668 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.3 - Dividend yield: 0.52% [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.906 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.258 billion yuan [5]. - The gross margin improved to 16.95%, and the net margin reached 7.76% [4]. - The company forecasts revenues of 21.237 billion yuan for 2024, with a projected net profit of 1.950 billion yuan [5][6]. Segment Analysis - Refrigerant sales volume in Q3 was 85,000 tons, with an average price increase of 45% year-on-year [4]. - The petrochemical materials segment saw a significant year-on-year volume increase of 39% [4]. - The fluorinated polymer segment is expected to face profit pressure due to cost impacts, despite a recovery in volume and price [4]. Future Outlook - The report projects a positive trend for refrigerant prices due to regulatory changes and increased demand, with expected EPS of 0.72 yuan for 2024 [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a favorable industry landscape, with a strong market position in the refrigerant sector [4].

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|巨化股份（600160） 短期业绩承压，制冷剂景气上行 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月25日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 10 月 24 日，巨化股份发布《2024 年第三季度报告》：受益于制冷剂产品价格上升、 公司完成收购淄博飞源等促使制冷剂销售量增加；含氟精细化学品产销量、营业收入同比大 幅增长等影响，2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 179.06 亿元，同比+11.83%；归母净利 润 12.58 亿元，同比+68.40%。其中，2024Q3 单季度公司实现归母净利润 4.23 亿元，同比 +64.76%、环比-19.19%；扣非归母净利润 3.9 亿元，同比+67.81%、环比-22.81%。 |分析师及联系人 张玮航 许隽逸 申起昊 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524070002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月25日 巨化股份(600160) 短期业绩承压，制 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Add - B" [1][2] Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant market remains buoyant, leading to continuous improvement in the company's performance. The company has effectively leveraged its competitive position in the fluorinated refrigerant market and integrated operations to achieve stable production and sales growth across various product lines [1][3] - The report anticipates sustained growth in refrigerant prices due to supply constraints and regulatory changes, which are expected to significantly enhance the company's profitability [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.906 billion yuan, an increase of 11.83% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.258 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68.40% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 16.95%, up by 4.08 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 5.826 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year and a decline of 11.86% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report projects revenues of 24.812 billion yuan, 28.857 billion yuan, and 31.798 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 16.3%, and 10.2% [2][4] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a leading position in the refrigerant market, with a market share of 38% in the third-generation refrigerants. The concentration ratio (CR3) for various refrigerants is notably high, indicating a favorable market structure [3] - The average prices for key refrigerants have shown significant increases, with R32 rising by 120.29% year-to-date, indicating strong demand and pricing power in the market [3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing price increases in refrigerants due to regulatory changes and supply constraints. The continuous expansion into high-value-added products is expected to further enhance profitability [2][3]

巨化股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600160） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 20.99 CNY [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 17.906 billion CNY in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.83%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.258 billion CNY, up 68.40% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights that the refrigerant prices are expected to remain high due to supply-demand dynamics, with the company likely to benefit from additional quotas in 2025 [2] - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 2.001 billion CNY, 3.150 billion CNY, and 4.023 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 17, and 14 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3, the company reported a revenue of 5.826 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, while the net profit was 423 million CNY, an increase of 64.76% year-on-year [2] - The refrigerant segment showed a production of 141,100 tons in Q3, down 16.70% quarter-on-quarter but up 21.73% year-on-year, with an average price of 28,152.38 CNY per ton, reflecting a 13.76% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The forecasted total revenue for the company is expected to grow from 20.655 billion CNY in 2023 to 29.439 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.2% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leader in refrigerant quotas and continues to benefit from the long-term prosperity of the refrigerant market [2] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant growth year-on-year, with a notable increase in the sales volume of fluorinated fine chemicals [2] - The report anticipates sustained high performance for the company due to its leading position in the refrigerant quota market and the expected recovery of the refrigerant market in Q4 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 17.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.83%, and a net profit of 1.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.40% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.86%, while net profit was 423 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.67% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.19% [1] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.77, 1.02, and 1.09 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.2, 20.0, and 18.7 [3] Market and Product Insights - The sales volume of fluorinated fine chemicals, petrochemical materials, refrigerants, and basic chemical products saw significant increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 286.18%, 52.29%, 11.41%, and 11.41% respectively [2] - The average prices of refrigerants, fluorinated chemical raw materials, and petrochemical materials increased by 29.81%, 15.40%, and 1.90% year-on-year, while other product prices experienced varying degrees of decline [2] - The company has expanded its production quotas for HFC-32 and HFC-245fa, which is expected to support its growth in the upcoming quarters [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][12][13] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 68% in the first three quarters of 2024, and a 65% increase in the third quarter, despite a sequential decline of 19% [1][4] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 179.06 billion yuan, representing an 11.83% year-on-year growth [1][4] - The company is benefiting from rising refrigerant prices, with the average price of refrigerants increasing by 45% year-on-year in the third quarter [1][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the refrigerant market, with expectations of sustained high demand due to the end of the traditional off-season and the start of a new cooling year [1][11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 12.58 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 7.76%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] - The third quarter saw revenues of 58.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, but the net profit was 4.23 billion yuan, up 64.76% year-on-year [1][4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 16.95%, reflecting an improvement of 4.08 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] Market Trends - The refrigerant market is experiencing a price increase, with R22 and R32 prices rising significantly due to strong demand from household air conditioning and supply constraints [1][6] - The company’s refrigerant production and sales volumes for the third quarter were 14.11 million tons and 8.50 million tons, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 22% and 10% [1][6] - The company is expanding its product offerings to include fourth-generation refrigerants and high-value fluorinated products, enhancing its competitive position in the market [2][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 252.53 billion yuan, 325.06 billion yuan, and 414.82 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][12] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 17.38 billion yuan, 21.98 billion yuan, and 27.34 billion yuan, indicating robust growth potential [2][12] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for refrigerants driven by the recovery in the air conditioning and automotive sectors [1][11]

F原证券 基础化工/化学制品 公 司 研 究 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 巨化股份（600160.SH） 2024 年 10 月 25 日 制冷剂景气延续上行趋势，公司利润释放或将不断向好 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/24 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 20.28 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 26.10/13.80 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 547.51 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 547.51 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 27.00 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 27.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 67.51 | 股价走势图 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 巨化股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《中报业绩高增，坚定看好制冷剂景 气延续，珍惜布局机会—公司信息更 新报告》-2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2][10]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth due to increased sales volume and rising prices of refrigerants, with a notable increase in net profit by 64.76% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [5][10]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, holding the largest HFCs quota in the country, which strengthens its market position following the acquisition of Zibo Feiyuan [10][9]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong due to a recovery in domestic appliance sales and increased export orders, contributing to sustained high prices [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 58.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.23 billion yuan, an increase of 64.76% [5][10]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 179.06 billion yuan, up 11.83% year-on-year, with a net profit of 12.58 billion yuan, reflecting a 68.40% increase [5][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 16.95%, an increase of 4.08 percentage points year-on-year [5][10]. Product Performance Summary - The production and sales of fluorochemical raw materials increased by 12.2% and 4.0% respectively in Q3 2024, with prices rising by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter [6][10]. - The sales volume of fluorinated refrigerants grew by 21.7% year-on-year, with a revenue increase of 44.6% to 63.19 billion yuan [6][10]. - The production and sales of fluorinated fine chemicals saw substantial growth, with sales volume increasing by 118.3% and revenue rising by 120.0% year-on-year [6][10]. Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry is experiencing tight supply and recovering demand, leading to sustained price increases for major refrigerants [9][10]. - The domestic air conditioning market has shown significant growth, with production increasing by 26.0% and sales by 21.4% in September 2024 [9][10]. - The overall market conditions suggest that the company, as a leading supplier of fluorinated products, is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's upward cycle [10].