Group 1 - The chemical products sector increased by 2.97% on January 6, with Cangzhou Dahua leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] - Notable stock performances included Cangzhou Dahua with a closing price of 16.64, up 9.98%, and Jiahu Energy also up 9.98% at a closing price of 9.59 [1] Group 2 - The chemical products sector saw a net inflow of 681 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 375 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Wanhua Chemical had a net inflow of 4.13 billion yuan from main funds, despite a net outflow of 2.93 billion yuan from retail investors [3] - Dongyue Silicon Materials recorded a net inflow of 174 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 1.03 billion yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant rally, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing strong performance and individual stocks within the sector also seeing substantial gains [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) opened with a rise and maintained high volatility, reaching a maximum intraday increase of 3.83% and closing up by 3.15% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical, surged over 8%, while others like Xingfa Group, Kaisa Bio, and Junzheng Group increased by more than 7% [1]. - The basic chemical sector attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 12.4 billion yuan on the day, ranking second among 30 major sectors [3]. Group 2: Price Movements and Profit Expectations - In late December, the price of paraxylene (PX) rose significantly, with futures increasing by over 800 yuan/ton and spot prices up by approximately 340 yuan/ton [3]. - The rise in PX prices is expected to enhance profit expectations for refining companies, leading to a bullish sentiment in the stock market [3]. - Major changes among leading companies during a period of industry downturn may present opportunities for recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a negative growth in capital expenditure for the chemical industry in 2024, with supply-side contraction expected due to the "anti-involution" trend and the acceleration of the elimination of outdated capacity [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which, combined with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is anticipated to open up demand for chemical products [3]. - A dual bottom in supply and demand is expected to be established, with strong policy catalysts potentially leading to a cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, marking a transition from valuation recovery to earnings growth [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors may consider the chemical ETF (516020) for efficient exposure to the sector, as it tracks the CSI sub-industry index and covers various segments of the chemical industry [4]. - Nearly 50% of the ETF's holdings are concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, providing opportunities for strong performance [4]. - The remaining 50% of the ETF's holdings include leading stocks in segments like phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, allowing for comprehensive investment in the chemical sector [4].

化工板块今日（1月6日）持续猛攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘拉升后持续高位 震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.83%，截至发稿，涨3.15%。 成份股方面，石化、磷化工、氯碱等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，恒力石化飙涨超8%，兴发集 团、凯赛生物、君正集团涨超7%，桐昆股份、鲁西化工、万华化学等多股涨超6%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九转 面线 工具 份 (2) > | 4. TETF O | 516020 | 516020(化工ETF) 13:38 价 0.916 激表 0.028(3.15%) 均价 0.906 威交盘 9149 IOPV 0.9151 2-1.83% | D | 0.976 | +0.028 +3.15% | 0.922 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase from a cyclical bottom, with chemical product price indices expected to stabilize and improve profitability as downstream companies replenish inventory [2] - The China Chemical Industry Association and the Phosphate Fertilizer Association held a meeting to ensure the supply of sulfuric acid resources for phosphate fertilizer production, stabilizing agricultural supply for the spring farming season [1] - Wanhua Chemical has continuously raised global prices for core products such as MDI and TDI since December 2025, in line with international giants like BASF and Dow, driven by industry-wide maintenance and rising raw material costs [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 45.31% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Industry, and Hengli Petrochemical [2] - The chemical industry is seeing new growth engines from emerging applications in AI, OLED, and robotics, with semiconductor materials expanding due to demand from computing power [2] - The chemical ETF managed by Harvest (159129) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, focusing on the new economic cycle amid the "anti-involution" backdrop [2][3]

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4069.38 | 13940.24 | 1479.07 | | +45.96 +1.14% +111.61 +0.81% +12.65 +0.86% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1430.81 | 3293.18 | 6611.54 | | +27.40 +1.95% | -1.37 -0.04% +73.60 +1.13% | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4772.17 | 7766.29 | 5834.52 | | +54.42 +1.15% | +115.09 +1.50% +71.22 +1.24% | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7821.96 | 5951.67 | 5570.59 | | +68.08 +0.88% +23.35 +0.39% +45.47 +0.82% | | | | 万得全A涨跌分布 | | | | 跌1584 | 涨3691 | | | 成交额1.80万亿 | 预测成交额2.82万亿, ...

截至2026年1月6日11:25，中证石化产业指数强势上涨3.61%，成分股恒力石化上涨8.13%，鲁西化工上涨7.87%，万华化学上涨7.25%，桐昆股份、华鲁恒 升、等个股跟涨。石化ETF(159731)上涨3.47%，最新价报0.95元。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | 7.25% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 1.39% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 4.75% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 1.64% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 甲国海海 | 2.24% | 5.22% | | 600160 | 巨化股份 | 1.43% | 4.51% | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 2.49% | 3.82% | | 600143 | 金发科技 | 0.42% | 3.69% | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | 6.87% | 3.31% | | 600989 | 宝丰能源 | 4.31% | 3.2 ...

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.53% and the Chemical Sub-Index increased by 2.43%, with notable stock performances including Junzheng Group up over 8% and Hengli Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical up over 5% [1] - The Chemical ETF by Harvest (159129) increased by 2.49%, reflecting strong performance in the chemical sector [1] - The Venezuelan oil exports have nearly dropped to zero due to U.S. oil sanctions, leading to the state oil company reducing crude production and initiating emergency measures to close some oil fields [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities predicts that the "anti-involution" policy signals will effectively optimize the supply side of the refining and chemical industry [1] - The global external environment is changing rapidly, with significant uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, U.S.-Iran relations, and U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - It is expected that the Brent oil price will stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI oil price between $52-62 per barrel by 2026, considering OPEC+'s fiscal balance oil price costs and the high new well costs of U.S. shale oil [1] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Index, which selects 50 large-cap, liquid chemical companies from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Tianci Materials, Cangge Mining, Juhua Co., Hualu Hengsheng, Duofu Du, Hengli Petrochemical, Baofeng Energy, and Yuntianhua [2]

③开年以来消费、家电、汽车、房地产等化工主要下游均有望迎来政策发力，行业需求有望受益于下游 改善，价格有望回暖。 化工ETF天弘(159133)跟踪细分化工指数，基础化工、石油石化、电力设备三大申万一级行业占比超 93%，农药、化肥、涂料、新能源材料、高性能塑料等化工全产业链布局，精选50只成份股，既包含万 华化学、盐湖股份、天赐材料等龙头公司，又涵盖细分领域优质中小企业，磷化工、氟化工、钾肥、新 能源材料等全覆盖，能更好地抓住化工行业整体的发展红利。 兴业证券指出，2026年化工行业将迎来周期复苏与产业升级的双重机遇。化工品底部区间运行已达三 年，随着"十五五"开局之年国内稳增长政策有望发力，美联储进入降息周期，叠加"反内卷"浪潮的助推 下，化工品传统需求有望温和复苏。 格隆汇1月6日｜今日化工板块延续近期涨势，碳酸锂价格继续上涨，带动化工ETF天弘(159133)跟踪的 标的指数上涨3.14%，自去年12月17日以来累计涨超17%，盘中交易价格再创上市以来新高。该ETF盘 中获资金净申购1450万份，连续4日净流入，合计"吸金"超6400万元。 ①继湖南裕能、万润新能、德方纳米等企业集体宣布1月停产检修后 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.03% as of the latest report, reflecting a robust market trend [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Junzheng Group, which surged over 7%, Hengli Petrochemical up over 6%, and Hengyi Petrochemical increasing by over 5% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by price increases in core products like MDI/TDI by Wanhua Chemical, which plans to raise prices in line with international giants [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to experience a dual uplift in performance and valuation due to the "anti-involution" policy, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in construction projects among basic chemical companies [3] - Demand is being supported by domestic consumption and resilient exports, indicating a recovery in the supply-demand balance [3] - Analysts predict that the chemical industry may reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, driven by policy expectations and a potential increase in demand as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting phase [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, providing investors with strong investment opportunities [4] - The ETF also diversifies its holdings across various sub-sectors, including phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and other chemical leaders [4]

展望后市，中国银河证券表示，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海 外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩。"十五五"规划建议"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国 降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。其认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行 业或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 如何把握化工板块反弹机遇？借道化工ETF（516020）布局效率或更高。公开资料显示，化工ETF （516020）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，全面覆盖化工各个细分领域。其中近5成仓位集中于大市 值龙头股，包括万华化学、盐湖股份等，分享强者恒强投资机遇；其余5成仓位兼顾布局磷肥及磷化 工、氟化工、氮肥等细分领域龙头股，全面把握化工板块投资机会。场外投资者亦可通过化工ETF联接 基金（A类012537/C类012538）布局化工板块。 来源：沪深交易所等，截至2026.1.6。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于 2012.4.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表 ...