买入（维持） [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 万华化学(600309.SH) 2025 年 08 月 22 日 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：65.60 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 万华化学 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.85 | 23.33 | 17.01 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 4.19 | 11.86 | 7.01 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 证券分析师 | [Table_Base] 股票数据 | | [Table_Finance] 主要财务数据及预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至今日上午收盘，上证综指3796.36点，收于年线之上，涨跌幅为0.67%，A股 总成交额为15306.58亿元。到目前为止，今日有13只A股价格突破了年线，其中乖离率较大的个股有诺 瓦星云、招商轮船、卓胜微等，乖离率分别为8.66%、2.92%、2.43%；金域医学、瑞斯康达、亿联网络 等个股乖离率较小，刚刚站上年线。 | 证券代 | 证券简 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 年线 | 最新价 | 乖离率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 码 | 称 | （%） | （%） | （元） | （元） | （%） | | 301589 | 诺瓦星 云 | 10.32 | 6.73 | 163.13 | 177.25 | 8.66 | | 601872 | 招商轮 | 5.96 | 2.27 | 6.39 | 6.58 | 2.92 | | | 船 | | | | | | | 300782 | 卓胜微 | 4.21 | 4.61 | 81.41 | 83.39 | 2.43 | | 002785 | 万里石 | 2.19 | ...

化工板块盘中突然拉升！氯碱、磷肥及磷化工、氟化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，航锦科技 涨停，宏达股份大涨超6%，巨化股份涨超4%，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）场内价格 涨幅达到1.15%。 | | | 分时 8日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 * | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 鼎加 九排 图试 工具 @ (7) > | | | 化工ETF 1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.770 | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 11:10 价 0.703 蓬跌 0.008(1.15%) 均价 0.699 超交量 1914 IOPV 0.70 | | | | | | | | +0.008 +1.159 | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 11:10:50 交易申 | | 10 1 | | 0.69 | | | | | | | | 0.602 | | 净值念得 | | 华宝化工ETF | ...

化工板块盘中突然拉升！氯碱、磷肥及磷化工、氟化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，航锦科技涨停，宏达股份大涨超6%，巨化股份涨超 4%，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）场内价格涨幅达到1.15%。 | स्ट्रेस्ट्रे | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 | 日 | = | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 圆线 工具 砂 | | 1 (3) | | ATETE O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 516020亿亿工ETFI 11:10 价 0.703 涨跌 0.008(1.15%) 均价 0.699 成交量 1914 IOPV 0.70. | | | | | | | | | | | 0.703 | | | | | | | | | | | | +0.008 +1.15% | | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 11:10:50 交易中 | | / . . ...

| 证券简 | 证券代 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 年线 | 最新价 | 乖离率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 码 | （%） | （%） | （元） | （元） | （%） | | 诺瓦星 | 301589 | 9.27 | 5.25 | 163.12 | 175.57 | 7.63 | | | 云 | | | | | | | 卓胜微 | 300782 | 5.42 | 3.90 | 81.42 | 84.36 | 3.61 | | 招商轮 | 601872 | 5.48 | 1.84 | 6.39 | 6.55 | 2.46 | | | 船 | | | | | | | 通威股 | 600438 | 1.40 | 0.95 | 20.71 | 20.95 | 1.14 | | | 份 | | | | | | | 万里石 | 002785 | 1.92 | 1.94 | 29.97 | 30.25 | 0.94 | | 威胜信 | 688100 | 1.05 | 0.30 | 36.15 | 36.47 | 0.89 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Wanhua Chemical's stock has shown a recent upward trend despite a year-to-date decline, with significant trading activity and net inflow of funds [1][2] - As of August 22, Wanhua Chemical's stock price increased by 2.06% to 66.95 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 209.58 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price decline of 5.20%, but has seen a 6.29% increase over the last five trading days and a 22.17% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Wanhua Chemical increased by 22.10% to 269,200, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 18.10% to 11,665 shares [2] - For the first half of 2025, Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 90.901 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.35% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Wanhua Chemical has distributed a total of 50.24 billion CNY in dividends, with 14.05 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [2]

引子：拐点来临，建议布局公司股价从2021 年2 月以来经历长达4 年多的下行期，盈利方面，2022- 2024 年业绩震荡下行，2025 上半年同比下降25.1%，目前公司处于业绩与估值的双低位置。展望未 来，全球及中国市场大环境或有积极变化；公司主力产品MDI/TDI 有望迎来景气上行，竞争激烈的石 化业务护城河已然建立，资本开支放缓，或将迎来现金流的持续改善。公司采取"聚焦""经营"的战略， 夯实优势的稳健投资，促进公司冬去春来，持续向好。 大环境之变：全球及中国化工龙头迎至暗时刻，供给悄然发生积极转变海外成本曲线上移，叠加内卷加 剧，国内外龙头身处困境。外资经营压力大幅提升，壳牌、朗盛、陶氏化学等企业纷纷退出产能，供给 端持续优化。国内化工行业资本开支增速放缓。2024年以来，政府会议多次提到要综合整治"内卷式"恶 性竞争，国内外供给端均望发生积极变化。 MDI：供需改善，有望迎来基本面反转 MDI 主要用于家电和地产保温等领域。展望全球市场，中国的家电需求支撑MDI 的基本盘，无醛板等 新应用可圈可点，美国潜在的降息空间或将促进地产需求改善，欧盟进入降息通道，地产需求逐步恢 复，全球MDI 需求在波 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][15]. Core Viewpoints - The company has experienced a prolonged decline in stock price since February 2021, with earnings expected to fluctuate downwards from 2022 to 2024, and a projected 25.1% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025. Currently, the company is at a low point in both performance and valuation. However, there are positive changes anticipated in the global and Chinese market environments, with the main products MDI/TDI expected to see an upturn in demand. The company has established a competitive moat in its petrochemical business, and a slowdown in capital expenditure may lead to sustained cash flow improvements. The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing" and "operating" to solidify its advantages and promote a recovery [3][6][22]. Summary by Sections Market Environment Changes - The global and Chinese chemical industry leaders are facing a challenging period, but there are signs of positive changes in supply dynamics. Increased operational pressures have led foreign companies like Shell and Dow to exit certain capacities, resulting in a continuous optimization of supply [7][33]. MDI Market Outlook - MDI, primarily used in home appliances and real estate insulation, is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics. The demand for MDI in China is supported by the home appliance sector, and potential interest rate cuts in the US may boost real estate demand. The global MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with significant barriers to entry and a projected recovery in demand [8][51][59]. TDI Market Outlook - TDI, used in the production of foams and curing agents, is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases. The domestic furniture industry's strong demand is expected to further drive TDI consumption [9][72]. Petrochemical Business - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through raw material advantages, with a successful launch of a new ethylene facility. The integration of the entire industrial chain is expected to significantly improve profitability in the petrochemical sector [10][12]. Fine Chemicals and New Materials - The company is focusing on its fine chemicals and new materials segment, which includes various high-value-added business units. The acceleration of self-developed technologies is expected to yield promising future growth [11][12]. Management and Cost Control - The company is implementing cost reduction and capital expenditure control measures, with a focus on improving operational efficiency. A planned investment of 25.24 billion yuan in 2025 indicates a significant reduction in overall investment scale, which may lead to improved cash flow and a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio [12][46].

Core Insights - Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Co., Ltd. has signed strategic cooperation agreements with Haitian Plastic Machinery Group and Wanhua Chemical Group to expand industrial collaboration and drive innovation in automotive lighting technology [1] Group 1 - The strategic partnerships aim to enhance innovation in both manufacturing and materials for automotive lighting [1] - The agreements signify a commitment to advancing technology in the automotive lighting sector [1]

截至8月21日收盘，丙烯酸概念上涨1.71%，位居概念板块涨幅第8，板块内，10股上涨，阿科力涨停， 万华化学、卫星化学、兴业股份等涨幅居前，分别上涨4.06%、4.01%、3.57%。跌幅居前的有天龙集 团、国恩股份、双象股份等，分别下跌3.34%、2.68%、0.92%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可燃冰 | 3.12 | 稀土永磁 | -2.14 | | 数字货币 | 2.38 | 兵装重组概念 | -2.11 | | 跨境支付(CIPS) | 2.19 | 光刻机 | -2.11 | | 草甘膦 | 2.03 | PCB概念 | -2.10 | | 电子身份证 | 1.93 | 液冷服务器 | -2.06 | | 钛白粉概念 | 1.89 | PEEK材料 | -2.03 | | 移动支付 | 1.73 | 共封装光学(CPO) | -2.03 | | 丙烯酸 | 1.71 | 减速器 | -1.96 | | 财税数字化 | 1.40 | 汽车热管理 | -1.82 | | 信托 ...