1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the basic chemical industry's weekly data, covering price and profit changes in multiple sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, coal - chemical, and animal nutrition, and also tracks the stock price performance and profitability of related listed companies [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking**: - **Stock Price Changes**: The basic chemical index decreased by 2.1% in the past week, increased by 9.0% in the past month, 17.6% in the past three months, 48.7% in the past year, and 10.4% since the beginning of 2026. Among the related listed companies, New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (002001.SZ) had a 6.8% increase in the past week, while other companies such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SH) and Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SH) had varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Profitability**: The report provides the total market value, stock price, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,500 yuan/ton, 13,900 yuan/ton, and 14,377 yuan/ton respectively. The corresponding weekly changes were - 43 yuan/ton, + 36 yuan/ton, and + 292 yuan/ton, and the gross margins were 4,097 yuan/ton, 1,497 yuan/ton, and 2,345 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,277 yuan/ton, 4,399 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton, and 4,137 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 139 yuan/ton, + 51 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and + 63 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of polyethylene production through different processes and polypropylene production through different processes also had corresponding changes [2][8]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,119 yuan/ton, 1,758 yuan/ton, 4,004 yuan/ton, and 2,511 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 65 yuan/ton, + 13 yuan/ton, + 41 yuan/ton, and - 69 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross margins also changed [2]. - **Animal Nutrition Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine were 61.4 yuan/kg, 55.9 yuan/kg, 18.2 yuan/kg, and 14.3 yuan/kg respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.1 yuan/kg, + 0.9 yuan/kg, + 0.3 yuan/kg, and + 0.1 yuan/kg [2][9]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: The report does not elaborate on the basic chemical index trend but focuses on the performance data of the index and related companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Plate**: Analyzes the price trends and price - spread situations of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in China [16][19]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate**: Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, natural gas, and crude oil, as well as the profitability of different processes for producing polyethylene and polypropylene [23][31][38]. - **Coal - Chemical Plate**: Covers the price and gross margin trends of coal - coking products and traditional coal - chemical products, as well as some new materials [40][45][52]. - **Animal Nutrition Plate**: Analyzes the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [57][59][63].

Core Viewpoint - The epoxy propylene sector has experienced a significant price surge since January, with various companies seeing substantial stock price increases, driven by supply-demand dynamics and market speculation [2][3][4]. Price Increase - In January, stock prices of companies related to epoxy propylene saw remarkable increases, with Meibang Technology rising by 67.45% and Hongbaoli by 68.92% [3]. - The benchmark price of epoxy propylene reached 8200.00 yuan/ton by January 30, marking a 6.03% increase from the beginning of the month, with some periods seeing nearly a 10% rise [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price increase is attributed to changes in the supply-demand landscape, with reduced operating loads in northern regions and a positive outlook in the downstream market leading to increased purchasing activity [4][5]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products is expected to drive a surge in orders before the April deadline, further boosting demand for epoxy propylene [5]. Market Trends - Despite the price surge, there are signs of a cooling market as purchasing sentiment declines due to high prices, leading to a potential downward adjustment in prices [6]. - The epoxy propylene industry is currently experiencing an oversupply situation, with low operating rates and expected new capacity additions by 2026 [6][7]. Demand Growth - Although there is oversupply, demand for epoxy propylene is showing slight growth, particularly in the appliance and export sectors, which is helping to sustain overall demand [7]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in February, with potential price rebounds later in the month as downstream factories resume operations [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The chemical sector's profitability is under pressure due to rising costs and impairment impacts, but a recovery is expected as capital expenditures near completion and demand stabilizes [3][4] - Key investment opportunities are identified in the agricultural chain, textile chain, export chain, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In Q4 2025, oil prices declined, negatively impacting demand and leading to lower chemical prices, while gas prices increased [3] - The average Brent spot price was $63.98 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year, while NYMEX natural gas futures rose 36% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecasts - The weighted average EPS for 2025 is projected at 0.90 yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with Q4 EPS expected at 0.20 yuan [3] - Significant profit growth is anticipated in sectors such as pesticides, compound fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, chromium chemicals, and fluorochemicals [3] Key Companies and Their Projections - Wanhua Chemical is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.16 billion yuan in 2025, with Q4 profit at 3 billion yuan [3][4] - Salt Lake Industry is projected to reach 8.5 billion yuan in 2025, with Q4 profit at 4 billion yuan [3][4] - Agricultural chemicals like Yangnong Chemical and New Hope Liuhe are expected to see substantial growth, with profits of 1.24 billion yuan and 6.72 billion yuan respectively in 2025 [3][4] Sector-Specific Insights - The textile chain is expected to benefit from high demand growth and improved supply conditions, with companies like Luhua Chemical and Tongkun Group highlighted [4] - The agricultural chain is supported by increasing planting areas and higher transgenic penetration rates, benefiting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4] - Export-related chemical products are expected to perform well due to low inventory levels and easing monetary policies [4] Material Growth Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Technology noted for their potential [5]

瑞银表示，全球化工行业盈利低迷背景下，海外高成本产能加速退出。当前中国化工行业1.5倍的P/BV 估值处于过去20年43%分位，主动权益基金对化工板块的超配比例在2025年Q4触底回升，处于10年低 位。历史数据显示，当PPI同比转正时，化工板块多实现超额收益，而瑞银宏观团队预测2026年末至 2027年初PPI将重回正增长通道，行业配置价值凸显。 截至2月6日10:50，中证石化产业指数强势上涨2.18%，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）上涨 2.02%，石化ETF近20个交易日资金净流入超14.37亿元，资金抢筹特征显著。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，受基础化工和石油 石化双轮驱动，同时涵盖高股息和高成长资产，权重股包括万华化学（全球MDI龙头）、中国石油（国 内油气龙头）、中国石化（国内炼化龙头）、盐湖股份（国内钾肥龙头）等。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱： ...

华鑫证券认为，在国际油价下跌的背景下，继续看好具有最高资产质量和高股息率特征的三桶油。其中 中国石化的化工品产出最多，深度受益油价下行带来的原材料成本下降。此外，一系列民营大炼化公司 因其较高的化工品收率和生产效率，也会在本轮油价下行行情中获益，建议关注荣盛石化、恒力石化 石化ETF紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，截至2026年1月30日，中证石化产业指数(H11057)前十大权重股 分别为万华化学、中国石油、盐湖股份、中国石化、中国海油、藏格矿业、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化 股份、宝丰能源，前十大权重股合计占比55.71%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之 意） 石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856)。 截至2026年2月6日10:19，中证石化产业指数(H11057)强势上涨2.33%，成分股浙江龙盛上涨7.39%，华 峰化学上涨5.68%，荣盛石化上涨5.22%，万华化学，鲁西化工等个股跟涨。石化ETF(159731)上涨 2.32%，最新价报1.01元。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手4.52%。拉长 ...

Group 1 - BASF announced a price increase of $200 per ton for its Lupranate® TDI in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding mainland China) and MEAF regions, effective immediately, citing rising transportation, energy, and compliance costs as core drivers [1][7] - The global TDI industry is undergoing a restructuring, with ongoing cost pressures and supply reductions expected to persist, while China's TDI industry is gaining market power due to its capacity and cost advantages [3][9] - Recent closures and production cuts of TDI facilities in various countries due to environmental regulations and high operational costs have led to a significant supply gap, with 24% of global TDI capacity undergoing maintenance as of January 2026 [3][9] Group 2 - China's TDI industry is experiencing a dual benefit of capacity expansion and export growth, with major domestic producers like Wanhua Chemical and Covestro increasing their production capacities [3][9] - The domestic TDI market is characterized by a complex supply-demand dynamic, with industry capacity utilization dropping to 55%, while some leading companies maintain high operational loads [3][11] - By 2025, China's TDI export dependency is projected to rise to 36%, with a cumulative export volume of 556,500 tons, marking a 52.83% year-on-year increase, primarily targeting emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia [11][12] Group 3 - The rapid expansion of domestic TDI capacity has shifted China from an import-dependent market to a core supplier in the global TDI market, with expectations that the global supply focus will increasingly shift towards China [12] - Only Covestro's Shanghai facility is expected to add new TDI capacity globally in 2026, with the upcoming 300,000-ton TDI facility by Hualu Hengsheng being one of the few planned projects, indicating China's pivotal role in future TDI supply [12]

Core Insights - The latest price of butadiene as of February 4 is 10,300.00 CNY per ton, with a recent increase of 11.07% over the last 15 days, 20.00% over the last 30 days, and 47.85% over the last 60 days [2][4] Industry Overview - Butadiene is experiencing significant price increases, indicating potential opportunities for investment in related companies [2][4] - The companies involved in butadiene production include Huajin Co., Ltd. (000059), Qixiang Tengda (002408), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Satellite Chemical (002648), Sinopec (600028), Wanhua Chemical (600309), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), and China National Petroleum (601857) [2][4] Investment Strategy - The cyclical stock selection method focuses on companies that produce raw materials, where profits are highly influenced by raw material price fluctuations [2][4] - Utilizing the price fluctuation data from the business community can help identify buy signals for cyclical stocks ahead of quarterly and annual reports, making it a crucial strategy for investing in this sector [2][4]

每经AI快讯，天眼查App显示，近日，万华化学集团（烟台）烯烃有限公司发生工商变更，注册资本由 30亿元人民币增至40亿元人民币。该公司成立于2024年7月，经营范围包括化工产品生产、化工产品销 售、基础化学原料制造、专用化学产品制造等，由万华化学全资持股。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，万华化学集团（烟台）烯烃有限公司发生工商变更，注册资本由30亿人民币增 至40亿人民币。该公司成立于2024年7月，法定代表人为白海涛，经营范围包括化工产品生产、化工产 品销售、基础化学原料制造、专用化学产品制造等，由万华化学全资持股。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，万华化学（600309）集团(烟台)烯烃有限公司发生工商变更，注册资本由30亿 人民币增至40亿人民币，增幅约33%。 该公司成立于2024年7月，法定代表人为白海涛，经营范围包括化工产品生产、化工产品销售、基础化 学原料制造、专用化学产品制造等，由万华化学全资持股。 ...