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证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-56 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份质押公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 3.股东累计质押股份情况 1 股东 名称 是否为控 股股东 本次质押股 数 是否为限售 股（如是， 注明限售类 型） 是否补 充质押 质押起始 日 质押到期 日 质权人 占其所 持股份 比例 占公司 总股本 比例 质押融 资资金 用途 合成 国际 否 4,000,000 否 否 2024 年11 月 20 日 2027 年10 月 28 号 青岛银行 股份有限 公司烟台 开发区科 技支行 2.31% 0.13% 借款担 保 合计 4,000,000 2.31% 0.13% 1.本次股份质押基本情况 特此公告。 重要内容提示: 公司股东 Prime Partner International Limited 持有万华化学股份 172,993,229 股， 占公司总股本比例 5.51%，本次股份质押业务办理完成后，Prime Partner ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the operations and market outlook of **Wanhua Chemical**, focusing on its three main business segments: **MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate)**, **TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate)**, and **New Materials** [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33]. Key Points and Arguments MDI Segment - **Market Growth**: MDI consumption increased from 735,000 tons in 2020 to 786,000 tons in 2021, reflecting a 7% growth, with a further increase to 815,000 tons in 2023, showing a 1% growth year-over-year [5][6]. - **Market Share**: Wanhua's MDI market share rose from 24% in 2020 to 33% in 2023, with consumption increasing from 180,000 tons to over 270,000 tons [5][6]. - **Future Demand**: Potential demand for MDI is expected to grow in sectors such as automotive, adhesives, and construction materials, with a notable increase in the use of polyurethane materials [7][8]. - **Production Capacity**: Wanhua plans to expand its MDI production capacity significantly, with current capacities at Yantai (110,000 tons), Ningbo (120,000 tons), and Fujian (40,000 tons), with future expansions planned [9][10]. TDI Segment - **Market Trends**: The TDI market is experiencing a contraction in consumption, with European producers like BASF and Mitsui Chemical reducing production due to high competition and cost pressures [12][13]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Wanhua is consolidating its position in the TDI market as competitors exit, leading to an increase in market share for leading firms [12][13]. New Materials Segment - **Product Diversification**: The new materials segment includes various products such as ADI (Amino Diisocyanate), PC (Polycarbonate), PMMA (Polymethyl Methacrylate), and SAP (Super Absorbent Polymer), which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2][3][4][23][24][25][26][27][28]. - **Market Position**: Wanhua is focusing on high-performance materials, with significant investments in R&D to enhance product quality and market competitiveness [23][24][25][26][27][28]. Synergies and Strategic Positioning - **Vertical Integration**: Wanhua's strategy includes integrating its chemical production with downstream applications, enhancing cost efficiency and product quality [19][20][21]. - **Cost Advantages**: The company benefits from lower production costs compared to international competitors, with estimates suggesting a cost advantage of approximately 1,500 to 2,000 RMB per ton [10][20]. Industry Dynamics - **Global Supply Chain**: The global MDI market is dominated by a few key players, with Wanhua, BASF, and Covestro controlling about 90% of the market share [12][13]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Recent environmental approvals for new projects, such as Wanhua's MDI expansion in Fujian, indicate a supportive regulatory environment for growth [9][10]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: The company anticipates a steady revenue growth rate of 10% to 20% annually in its core businesses, driven by increasing demand and market share [32][33]. Additional Important Insights - **Emerging Markets**: The company is exploring opportunities in battery materials and other new energy sectors, indicating a forward-looking approach to market trends [32][33]. - **Sustainability Focus**: Wanhua is also investing in sustainable materials, such as biodegradable plastics, aligning with global trends towards environmental responsibility [31][32]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Wanhua Chemical's strategic positioning, market dynamics, and growth prospects across its business segments.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is driven by technological innovation and operational excellence, positioning itself as a global chemical giant with high technology and low cost as its competitive advantages [2] - Short-term profitability is influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is driven by the company's ability to continuously evolve and launch milestone products [3] - The company's MDI business has proven its strength, and future projects will be key to its continued growth [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's Q4 2024 price spread index averaged 76.01, up 2.76 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 13.27th percentile historically [4] - Q4 2024 net profit is estimated at 3.9 billion yuan, with the polyurethane segment's price spread index at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024 [4] - The petrochemical segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at a historical low of 60.57, down 4.79 from Q3 2024 [4] - The new materials segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 37.74, down 0.12 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 10.04th percentile historically [4] Project Progress - The company's 150,000-ton/year MDI technical renovation and expansion project in Fujian has completed its first environmental impact assessment [5] - The company's 10,000-ton/year vanillin industrial chain project has entered the environmental impact report review stage [6] - The company's 10,000-ton/year lithium iron phosphate project has completed its first environmental impact assessment [8] MDI Market Analysis - In October 2024, the average price of pure MDI was 18,248 yuan/ton, down 11.67% year-on-year and 0.90% month-on-month [9] - The price spread between pure MDI and coal/benzene was 12,193 yuan/ton in October 2024, down 13.49% year-on-year but up 2.71% month-on-month [9] - Overseas MDI plants have experienced frequent unplanned shutdowns, with domestic MDI exports increasing by 5.69% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [10] Downstream Demand - Domestic refrigerator production in September 2024 increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while exports rose by 9.7% [11] - Domestic car production in October 2024 increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with sales up 7.0% [11] - New housing construction area in September 2024 decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, while cumulative construction area fell by 12.2% [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at 190.6/230.5/261.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 15.0/20.4/26.0 billion yuan [12] - The company's PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are estimated at 16x, 12x, and 9x, respectively [14] Polyurethane Segment - The polyurethane segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 22.14th percentile historically [71] - The MDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 127.53, up 12.06 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 30.41th percentile historically [71] TDI Segment - The TDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 43.37, down 1.56 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 6.81th percentile historically [129]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% to 11.1 billion yuan [1]. - The core polyurethane business continues to grow in sales volume, although the overall gross margin has declined due to product price pressures [1]. - The company is actively progressing on new projects, including the expansion of its MDI production capacity and international collaborations, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 542 billion yuan from polyurethane, 620 billion yuan from petrochemicals, and 200 billion yuan from fine chemicals and new materials, reflecting year-on-year increases of 8.3%, 19.5%, and 13.7% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.38%, down 1.38 percentage points from the previous year, with a quarterly gross margin of 13.4% [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow per share was 6.15 yuan, with a net profit margin of 9.59% for 2023 [3][9]. Future Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for the company are 14.9 billion yuan in 2024, 19.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 23.5 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [1][3]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 9.37% in 2024, 13.75% in 2025, and 9.44% in 2026 [9]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.22 in 2024, decreasing to 10.29 by 2026 [3][9]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.92 in 2024 to 1.53 in 2026 [3][9]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is forecasted to be 8.21 in 2024, dropping to 5.84 by 2026 [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company faced pressure in Q3 2024, with a year-to-date revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.35% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 12.67% to 11.1 billion yuan [2][4] - The company is entering a new phase of internationalization through a joint venture with international giants to build a specialized polyethylene integrated project in Fuzhou, expected to enhance its global competitiveness [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.5 billion yuan, a 12.48% year-on-year increase, but a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year [2][3] - The company produced 1.38 million tons of polyurethane products in Q3, a 6.12% decrease from the previous quarter, but sales increased by 2.17% to 1.41 million tons [3] Raw Material Prices - Significant increases in raw material prices were noted in Q3 2024, with pure benzene up by 13.06%, propane by 25.16%, and butane by 24.35%, impacting overall net profit [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS is projected to be 6.20 yuan in 2024, 7.34 yuan in 2025, and 8.36 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.0, 11.0, and 9.6 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 147.604 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 11.35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% year-on-year to 11.093 billion yuan [2] - The revenue growth was driven by increased product output and sales, but the profit decline in Q3 was due to narrowed price spreads and equipment maintenance [2] - Capital expenditures have been consistently high, reaching 43.098 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 31.97%, supporting long-term growth [2] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite short-term fluctuations, with projected net profits of 15.267 billion yuan, 18.914 billion yuan, and 22.404 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a decline in net profit due to lower product prices and maintenance shutdowns, with quarterly net profits of 4.157 billion yuan, 4.017 billion yuan, and 2.919 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [2] - The company’s capital expenditures have been robust, with a total of 297.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a slight increase of 1.10% year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for revenue is 175.361 billion yuan for 2023, increasing to 195.812 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 11.7% [3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 15.267 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 9.2% compared to 2023, but expected to rebound with growth rates of 23.9% and 18.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully increased production capacity, with significant expansions in its MDI facilities, which are expected to enhance revenue generation in the long term [2] - Despite being in a cyclical industry, the company’s strong capital expenditure and self-sustaining growth model support its long-term investment appeal [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 is under short-term pressure due to falling product prices and maintenance of multiple facilities, but the expansion of MDI capacity is expected to enhance competitiveness in the polyurethane sector [2][9]. - The report anticipates a recovery in production levels following the completion of maintenance on relevant facilities, which should positively impact the polyurethane segment [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 197.41 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6%. Net profit is expected to decline by 8.7% to CNY 15.35 billion [9]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 147.60 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while net profit was CNY 11.09 billion, a decrease of 12.67% [1][9]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was CNY 50.54 billion, up 12.48% year-on-year, but net profit fell 29.41% year-on-year to CNY 2.92 billion [1][9]. Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2024, the production volumes for the polyurethane, petrochemical, and new materials segments were 1.38 million tons, 1.30 million tons, and 450,000 tons, respectively, with significant declines in production due to maintenance [2]. - Sales volumes for the same segments were 1.41 million tons, 1.32 million tons, and 500,000 tons, showing mixed results with a slight increase in polyurethane sales [2]. Price Trends - The average prices for key products in Q3 2024 showed a decline for pure MDI and TDI, while prices for polymer MDI increased slightly due to improved demand in specific markets [3]. - The average price for pure benzene was CNY 8,442 per ton, up 13.06% year-on-year, while other petrochemical products experienced varied price changes [4][3]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 19.30 billion, an increase of 12.65% year-on-year, while investment cash flow was negative at CNY -30.62 billion [7]. - The report highlights a rise in accounts receivable by 28.14% year-on-year, indicating potential liquidity concerns [7]. Capacity Expansion - Wanhua Chemical is expanding its MDI capacity with a new project in Fujian, increasing annual capacity to 1.5 million tons, which is expected to strengthen its market position in the polyurethane sector [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.537 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.41% to 2.919 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in product prices and an increase in raw material costs [4][6] - The company has completed several technical upgrades and expansions, leading to a year-on-year increase in the sales volume of major products. In the first three quarters of 2024, the sales volume of the polyurethane series reached 4.1 million tons, up 14.21% year-on-year [4][5] - New production capacities are being launched, with significant advancements in self-developed POE industrialization and the successful commissioning of a 48,000 tons/year citral facility [5][6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 175.361 billion yuan in 2023 to 241.167 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.9% [7][10] - The net profit is expected to decline to 14.895 billion yuan in 2024 but is projected to recover to 22.250 billion yuan by 2026 [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.74 yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.09 yuan in 2026 [6][10] Product Performance - The polyurethane series is expected to generate revenue of 67.386 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 27.69% [8] - The petrochemical series is projected to have a revenue of 23.836 billion yuan in 2023, with a significantly lower gross margin of 3.51% [8] - The fine chemicals and new materials series are anticipated to generate 27.471 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 21.42% [8] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as Hualu Hengsheng and Yangnong Chemical, with an average PE ratio of 14.96 for 2023 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% to 11.09 billion yuan [4][5]. - The polyurethane segment showed strong demand in the refrigeration sector, with Q3 sales reaching approximately 18.79 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, despite weak demand in the textile sector [6]. - The petrochemical segment faced pressure from high costs and declining product prices due to falling oil prices, with Q3 revenue of 22.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [7]. - The new materials segment continued to grow, with Q3 production up 15.4% year-on-year, although prices for key products like HDI and IPDI saw declines [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in terminal demand during the traditional peak season from September to November, supported by supply-side constraints [19][20]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 179.13 billion yuan, with a net profit of 15.03 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year [5][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 4.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 [5][25]. - The company maintains a healthy cash flow, with Q3 operating cash inflow of 9.01 billion yuan, supporting stable operations [11]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the MDI market, with expectations of reaching nearly 40% global market share by 2025 due to new capacity expansions [4][20]. - High R&D investment and capital expenditures are expected to support the company's long-term growth and development as a leader in the global chemical industry [23][24].