记者丨赵云帆 编辑丨朱益民 在2025年下半年"化工反内卷"声浪之中，"化工茅"万华化学（600309.SH）的涨价显得有些姗姗来迟，但在影响范围上却有横扫全球之势头。 自2025年12月以来，万华化学接连发布多份调价函，涉及（二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯）和TDI（甲苯二异氰酸酯）等公司核心产品。在全球范围内、巴斯 夫、陶氏、亨斯迈等也频频同步上调MDI/TDI价格，聚氨酯价格迎来了近三年来难得一见的强势表现。 这也是继2025年年中科思创TDI装置遭遇火灾不可抗力停产之后，聚氨酯行业在一年内再度迎来一轮涨价契机。 "聚氨酯的行业集中度很高，除万华化学之外的企业均是全球性化工巨头。因此国内的反内卷对聚氨酯行业其实并没有太多直接的影响"，有聚氨酯行业人 士告诉21世纪经济报道记者。"（本次调价）这个事还是属于一个正常的市场调整行为。" 二级市场上，近期万华化学股价呈上涨趋势，近20日累计涨超12%，2025年12月31日股价微跌0.42%，市值为2400亿元。 万华化学(600309) 闭市 12-31 15:00:04 通 融 额 12.6亿 股本31.30亿 市盈™ 21.63 万得 盘口 换 0.52% 市值 ...

记者丨 赵云帆 编辑丨朱益民 在2025年下半年"化工反内卷"声浪之中，"化工茅"万华化学（600309.SH）的涨价显得有些姗 姗来迟，但在影响范围上却有横扫全球之势头。 自2025年12月以来，万华化学接连发布多份调价函，涉及（二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯）和TDI （甲苯二异氰酸酯）等公司核心产品。在全球范围内、巴斯夫、陶氏、亨斯迈等也频频同步上 调MDI/TDI价格，聚氨酯价格迎来了近三年来难得一见的强势表现。 这也是继2025年年中科思创TDI装置遭遇火灾不可抗力停产之后，聚氨酯行业在一年内再度迎 来一轮涨价契机。 "聚氨酯的行业集中度很高，除万华化学之外的企业均是全球性化工巨头。因此国内的反内卷 对聚氨酯行业其实并没有太多直接的影响"，有聚氨酯行业人士告诉21世纪经济报道记 者。"（本次调价）这个事还是属于一个正常的市场调整行为。" 二级市场上，近期万华化学股价呈上涨趋势，近20日累计涨超12%，2025年12月31日股价微 跌0.42%，市值为2400亿元。 意外检修涨价潮 21世纪经济报道记者获悉，此轮MDI/TDI涨价首先由巴斯夫发起，包括万华化学在内的其它厂 商开始跟进。 其中，巴斯夫于去年11月 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工 行业走势图 (5) 6 17 28 39 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 供需逐步向好下 PC 或迎景气周期 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 基础化工 增持 (维持) | 庄汀洲 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570519040002 | zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQZ933 | +(86) 10 5679 3939 | | 张雄 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523100003 | zhangxiong@htsc.com | | SFC No. BVN325 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 杨文韬* | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570124070150 | yangwentao@htsc.com | 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资 ...

"化工茅"涨价了，但行业距离复苏还有距离。 21世纪经济报道记者获悉，此轮MDI/TDI涨价首先由巴斯夫发起，包括万华化学在内的其它厂商开始跟进。 其中，巴斯夫于去年11月20日起上调南亚地区MDI基础产品价格200美元/吨；随后，万华化学开始跟进涨价，宣布12月1日起东南亚及南亚地 区聚合与纯MDI上调200美元/吨，欧洲全系MDI产品上涨300欧元/吨。 紧接着，12月中旬，万华化学再度进一步调价，其中中东、非洲、土耳其所有MDI产品提价350元/吨，拉丁美洲全系MDI/TDI价格上涨200美 元/吨。 其他聚氨酯核心厂商方面，亨斯迈12月2日宣布对欧洲、非洲和中东地区全系MDI涨价350欧元/吨；陶氏化学12月3日宣布对同地区全系MDI上 调300欧元/吨。 在2025年下半年"化工反内卷"声浪之中，"化工茅"万华化学（600309）(600309.SH)的涨价显得有些姗姗来迟，但在影响范围上却有横扫全球之 势头。 自2025年12月以来，万华化学接连发布多份调价函，涉及(二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯)和TDI(甲苯二异氰酸酯)等公司核心产品。在全球范围内、巴 斯夫、陶氏、亨斯迈等也频频同步上调MDI/TDI价 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The rise in PX prices has triggered a bullish trend in the petrochemical sector, indicating long-term recovery opportunities for the industry [2][7] - The report highlights that the increase in PX prices, with futures rising over 800 CNY/ton and spot prices up about 340 CNY/ton, has improved profit expectations for refining companies [7] - The report emphasizes that the refining industry has faced prolonged downturns, with major companies encountering challenges such as declining domestic demand for refined oil and stagnant export quotas [7] - The appointment of new leadership at China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is seen as a potential catalyst for industry recovery [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended leading companies in the refining sector include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) [3] - The report expresses optimism for recovery opportunities across various chemical sub-industries, including MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) and companies in the PVC sector such as Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), and Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated) [3] - In the phosphoric chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) are highlighted due to growth driven by energy storage [3] - The oxalic acid industry recommendations include Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

行业重要动态 硫酸行业保供稳价，助力保障国家粮食安全。据中化新网，12月18日，中国硫酸工业协会联合中国磷复 肥工业协会召开专题会议，聚焦硫酸与磷复肥行业保供稳价工作，明确多项调控措施，以保障春耕前化 肥供应稳定及价格平稳，夯实国家粮食安全的农资保障基础。据中国磷复肥工业协会，磷肥作为粮食 的"粮食"，其供应稳定性直接关乎国家粮食安全大局与农民种粮积极性。当前，国际硫磺供应持续紧 张，直接推高全球硫资源价格，导致磷肥生产原料成本大幅激增。硫酸作为磷肥生产的核心原料，近期 价格波动不断加剧，给磷肥企业正常生产经营带来显著压力。会议提出三项举措，包括硫酸供应向磷肥 生产倾斜、推进建立长期稳定购销关系、合理确定硫酸价格，旨在严格落实"国内优先"供应原则，全力 保障春耕用肥原料需求。据钢联数据，截至12月19日，硫酸（98%冶炼酸，山东）市场价为865元/吨， 12月以来涨幅为8.81%，本年涨幅高达162.12%。隆众资讯预计，在"保供稳价"政策的引导下，后续硫 酸市场将逐步降温，部分区域或出现回调可能。 上海证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：过去一周（12.13-12.19），基础化工指数涨跌幅为2.58%，沪深 3 ...

Group 1 - The "Spring Market" is gradually unfolding, with both internal and external environments showing positive changes, including favorable macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies [2][3] - The report suggests that the focus for investment should be on growth sectors, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to attract significant capital [3][4] - Key investment directions for January include AI industry chains, emerging industries, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights specific companies as top investment picks, including North China Innovation (机械), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (机械), Wanhua Chemical (能源化工), Chipbond Technology (电子), Ping An Insurance (非银), Zijin Mining (煤炭有色钢铁), Giant Network (传媒互联网), AVIC High-Tech (军工), Sanhua Intelligent Control (电新), and Kaiter (北交所) [7][11] - North China Innovation is expected to benefit from increased domestic equipment adoption and the expansion of storage and AI chip production [14][20] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the U.S. solar expansion due to a significant gap in battery production capacity [23][30] - Wanhua Chemical is projected to strengthen its market position in MDI and TDI, with expected price increases due to supply constraints [33][35] - Chipbond Technology is set to benefit from the growing demand for PCB and semiconductor equipment driven by AI [41][42] - Ping An Insurance is anticipated to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV) and dividend yield, supported by its insurance operations [45][46] - Zijin Mining is expected to see price increases in gold and copper, with a clear growth path in production [49][50] - Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group" is expected to show significant potential for long-term growth and profitability [56][57] - AVIC High-Tech is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace composite materials as the C919 enters mass production [58][59] - Sanhua Intelligent Control is expected to see growth from its involvement in Tesla's supply chain and the increasing demand for cooling solutions in data centers and energy storage [65][66] - Kaiter is projected to benefit from the automotive electronics sector and its expansion into robotics and liquid cooling markets [72][78]

天眼查资料显示，万华化学（宁波）有限公司，成立于2006年，位于宁波市，是一家以从事化学原料和 化学制品制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本93600万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，万华化学（宁 波）有限公司共对外投资了8家企业，参与招投标项目742次，专利信息1059条，此外企业还拥有行政许 可128个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 国家知识产权局信息显示，万华化学（宁波）有限公司取得一项名为"一种高油漆附着力汽车薄壁保险 杠材料、制备方法及其应用"的专利，授权公告号CN116855014B，申请日期为2023年7月。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

Core Insights - The 2026 "Bet on China" top ten core assets have been announced by Gelonghui, a well-known independent research institution in China, based on votes from millions of members across over 70 countries [1][3] - The selection process involved over half a month of voting, resulting in hundreds of thousands of valid votes, emphasizing the collective wisdom of global investors [3] Selection Criteria - The selected listed companies must meet four key principles, reflecting the uncertainties in the Chinese investment market for 2025, including fluctuating recovery expectations, real estate stability concerns, and the ambiguity in investment directions related to AI and new energy [2] Performance Metrics - Since the end of 2018, the "Bet on China" top ten core assets index has achieved a cumulative increase of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index (+56.2%), Hang Seng index (-0.82%), and S&P 500 index (+175.3%) [3] - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top ten core assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index (+17.7%), Hang Seng index (+27.8%), and S&P 500 index (+17.3%) [3] Core Assets Overview 1. **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308)**: Expected to benefit from the acceleration of AI computing infrastructure in China, with a projected demand for optical modules reaching 18 billion yuan, and a 50% annual growth in domestic demand for 800G optical modules [5] 2. **Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)**: With a massive user base, Tencent is expected to see its advertising revenue exceed 40 billion yuan in 2026, driven by its social media platforms and AI efficiency improvements [6][7] 3. **Alibaba (09988.HK)**: Anticipated to achieve 170 billion yuan in revenue from cloud services, with a growth rate of 34%, while also focusing on domestic consumption upgrades [7][8] 4. **Gold ETF (518880)**: Positioned as a key hedging tool for domestic investors, with a forecasted gold price potentially reaching 5,000 USD per ounce, supported by liquidity and geopolitical factors [8] 5. **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993/03993.HK)**: Expected to produce 660,000 tons of copper and 120,000 tons of cobalt in 2026, benefiting from the growth of the domestic electric vehicle market [9] 6. **Ping An Insurance (601318/02318.HK)**: Projected to see a 20%-25% increase in market value, benefiting from the domestic interest rate cycle and a focus on quality equity assets [10] 7. **Dongfang Caifu (300059)**: Anticipated to see a 22%-28% growth in market value, driven by increased capital market activity and AI-driven wealth management services [11] 8. **Wanhua Chemical (600309)**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 15.5-16.2 billion yuan in 2026, supported by domestic demand for MDI and new materials [12] 9. **WuXi AppTec (02268.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with over 60% of its pipeline serving domestic clients, reflecting the growth of China's biopharmaceutical industry [13] 10. **Trip.com Group (09961.HK)**: Projected to see a revenue growth of over 25%, benefiting from the recovery of domestic travel and tourism [14] Conclusion - The ten core assets are aligned with China's key sectors such as AI computing, new energy, consumption, finance, and biomedicine, reflecting the country's new productive forces and upgrading of livelihoods [14]

Core Insights - The article presents the "Top 10 Core Assets for 2026" as voted by millions of members from over 70 countries, highlighting the collective wisdom of global investors in navigating market uncertainties [2][5]. Summary by Categories Core Assets - The selected core assets include: - **Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创)**: Market cap of 6,778 million RMB, focusing on AI and advanced manufacturing [3] - **Tencent (腾讯)**: Market cap of 49,160 million RMB, centered on AI applications [3] - **Alibaba (阿里巴巴)**: Market cap of 24,500 million RMB, involved in AI and cloud computing [3] - **Gold ETF (黄金ETF)**: Market cap of 1 million RMB, categorized under precious metals [3] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (洛阳钼业)**: Market cap of 4,279 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **China Ping An (中国平安)**: Market cap of 12,400 million RMB, in the financial sector [3] - **Dongfang Caifu (东方财富)**: Market cap of 3,663 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **Wanhua Chemical (万华化学)**: Market cap of 2,400 million RMB, in the chemical industry [3] - **WuXi AppTec (药明合联)**: Market cap of 1,515 million RMB, in the pharmaceutical sector [3] - **Trip.com Group (携程集团)**: Market cap of 3,250 million RMB, in consumer discretionary [3] Market Context - The investment landscape in China for 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, including fluctuating recovery expectations, geopolitical tensions, and evolving trends in real estate and AI [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of collective intelligence in investment decisions, asserting that the aggregated insights from millions can effectively guide investors through market complexities [5][7]. Performance Metrics - From 2019 to 2025, the "Top 10 Core Assets Index" achieved a cumulative growth of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index (+56.2%) and the Hang Seng Index (-0.82%) [11]. - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the performance of major indices [11]. Selection Criteria - The selected companies must meet four key principles: 1. Represent Chinese enterprises with a domestic market focus 2. Align with future economic directions and create long-term value 3. Possess competitive advantages or potential in emerging sectors 4. Have a projected market cap growth of 20% or more in 2026 [10] Individual Company Insights - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: Expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related demand, with a projected market cap growth of 25%-30% [12]. - **Tencent**: Anticipated to see a 25%-30% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by its strong domestic user base and advertising revenue [13]. - **Alibaba**: Forecasted to achieve a 25%-28% stock price increase, supported by its dual focus on AI and consumer markets [14]. - **Gold ETF**: Positioned as a key hedging tool, with a projected 28%-32% growth in fund inflows [15]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Expected to maintain its leading position in the battery materials sector, with a projected net profit of 320-350 million RMB [16]. - **China Ping An**: Anticipated to grow its market cap by 20%-25%, benefiting from the domestic financial market's recovery [17]. - **Dongfang Caifu**: Projected to see a 22%-28% increase in market cap, driven by the growth in wealth management services [18]. - **Wanhua Chemical**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 155-162 million RMB, supported by domestic demand [19]. - **WuXi AppTec**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with significant growth driven by domestic innovation [20]. - **Trip.com Group**: Forecasted to grow revenue by over 25%, capitalizing on the recovery of domestic travel [21]. Conclusion - The selected core assets reflect a strategic alignment with China's economic growth and key sectors, including AI, renewable energy, finance, and healthcare, emphasizing their potential for long-term value creation [22].