September 18, 2025 04:54 AM GMT 全球化工行业 温故知新：反内卷背景下全球 基本面再探讨 2024-28年全球供应年均复合增长率将低于2020-24年。我们 期望政府出台更多措施从而使行业基本面从2026年中期开始 出现更显著的复苏。 要点 重新燃起的投资热情： 中国化工行业潜在的"反内卷"措施，叠加海外化工企业 因高生产成本而关闭工厂，使市场对该板块重燃关注。 我们希望通过对这四大关键主题的探讨，呈现出一幅清晰的行业图景： 股票推荐： 如需了解更多欧洲市场信息，请参阅报告 Tough At The Trough. Favour Downstream & Specialty. | M September 18, 2025 04:54 AM GMT | 股票分析师 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ | Global Foundation | | --- | --- | --- | | 全球化工行业 | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | | 徐玮珈 | | | 温故知新：反内卷背景下全球 | Kayle ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement of Wanhua Chemical Group's new 220,000 tons/year SEP project, which aims to produce ABS and ASA materials to address the oversupply of styrene and enhance the value of upstream chemicals [2]. Group 1: Project Overview - Wanhua Chemical's new project will utilize raw materials from its integrated ethylene project in Yantai, including styrene, butadiene, methyl methacrylate, and butyl acrylate, employing a proprietary emulsion grafting method to produce ABS and ASA [2]. - The project is expected to produce 200,000 tons/year of ABS and 20,000 tons/year of ASA, focusing on high-value products in the styrene downstream applications [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The global ABS market is currently facing challenges, particularly in Europe due to weak demand from downstream industries such as automotive, construction, and home appliances, compounded by geopolitical and tariff uncertainties [5]. - In the U.S., the ABS market is also affected by a 5% decline in automotive demand, although other sectors like construction are performing reasonably well [5]. - The Asian ABS market shows relatively stable automotive demand, but seasonal production cuts and trade tariffs have weakened appliance demand [5]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Pricing - By the end of 2024, China's total ABS production capacity is projected to reach 9.165 million tons/year, with a utilization rate of only 60% [5]. - Major producers include Zhejiang Petrochemical (1 million tons/year), LG Yongxing (930,000 tons), and others, with the top ten companies accounting for 78.25% of the national total capacity [5]. - ABS prices in China have dropped from $1,410/ton in January to approximately 9,962 yuan/ton by September, with some products falling to 9,000 yuan/ton [9]. Group 4: Future Prospects for ASA - ASA, compared to ABS, has superior UV aging resistance and is increasingly required in high-end applications such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic connectors, and outdoor materials, commanding prices 50% higher than ABS [9]. - Major global ASA producers include BASF, INEOS, LG Chem, and others, with LG Chem recently announcing a partnership to supply plant-based ASA for kitchen products [10]. - The entry of companies like Wanhua Chemical into the ASA market, leveraging their technological and raw material advantages, suggests a promising future for ASA, although achieving comprehensive market coverage remains challenging due to the diverse product types and competition [11].

Core Insights - The new materials industry in China is a key focus area under the "Made in China 2025" initiative, experiencing rapid growth in investment and market interest [1][2]. Investment Overview - From 2017 to 2022, the investment in China's new materials industry has shown significant growth, with a total investment amount reaching 440 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 7.3% increase from 2023 [2]. - In 2024, there were 397 investment events recorded in the new materials sector, representing a 33.2% year-on-year growth [2]. Sector Analysis - The investment landscape is diverse, with various sub-sectors such as chemical materials, clean technology, energy and minerals, semiconductors, and biotechnology [1]. - Guangdong province leads in investment amount, while Jiangsu province has the highest number of investment projects in 2024 [5]. Investment Models - Strategic investments and acquisitions dominate the investment landscape, with a significant number of projects falling under these categories [6]. - The investment model includes various stages such as angel/seed, pre-A, B, C, and D rounds, with strategic investments and acquisitions being the most prominent [6]. Market Dynamics - The new materials industry is characterized by a long introduction cycle for new materials, often leading to explosive growth once the materials are adopted in downstream applications [8]. - The industry is also influenced by technological innovation, with a focus on identifying high-growth and high-return investment opportunities [8]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies emphasize selecting sub-sectors with considerable market size and rapid growth potential [9]. - The industry is advised to focus on technological advancements and the potential for domestic substitution of imported materials [8][9]. Case Studies - Wanhu Chemical is highlighted as a leading enterprise in the new materials sector, consistently achieving over 10 billion yuan in net profits annually [12]. - The investment logic for new materials in the automotive sector focuses on capturing technological development directions and identifying high-growth opportunities [23]. Future Trends - The new materials industry is expected to continue expanding, particularly in areas such as electric vehicles, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy materials [29][30]. - The focus on sustainable development and technological innovation will drive future investment opportunities in the sector [49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the chemical industry is approaching the end of its current cycle, with a focus on demand recovery in 2024, particularly in infrastructure and exports, while the real estate cycle continues to decline [1][4] - From the demand side, infrastructure and export are expected to remain robust in 2024, with consumption showing resilience after two years of recovery [1][3] - On the supply side, global chemical capital growth is projected to turn negative in 2024, while domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline in growth, nearing a bottom by Q2 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The report outlines various industry indicators, including valuation metrics, price indices, supply-side metrics, import/export contributions, downstream industry performance, and global macroeconomic indicators [2] - Specific recommendations for investment opportunities include sectors such as refrigerants, phosphates, amino acids, and organic silicon, with suggested companies for each sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing global trade dynamics, focusing on both internal production capabilities and external market opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Yantai Wanhua Electric Materials Co., Ltd. marks a significant development in the new materials sector, with a focus on synthetic materials and technology promotion, backed by major stakeholders including Wanhua Chemical and Oriental Cable [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Yantai Wanhua Electric Materials Co., Ltd. has a registered capital of 110 million RMB and aims to engage in new materials technology promotion and synthetic materials manufacturing and sales [1] - Oriental Cable, a leading supplier in the submarine and land cable market, is projected to achieve a market share of 42.34% in submarine cables by 2024, with a revenue forecast of 9.093 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.008 billion RMB for the same year [1] - The company has secured orders worth approximately 19.6 billion RMB, with 11 billion RMB attributed to submarine cable business [1] Group 2: Strategic Collaborations - In April 2024, Wanhua Chemical partnered with Oriental Cable and TBEA, a leader in the power transmission and transformation industry, to innovate high-voltage cable insulation materials to meet the growing demand from the electric vehicle and offshore wind power sectors [2] - Wanhua Chemical has leveraged its integrated supply chain to produce high-voltage XLPE products, which exhibit superior cleanliness, thermal stability, and cross-linking capabilities [2] - A joint investment of around 1 billion RMB was made by Wanhua Chemical and Wanma Group to establish an integrated project for environmentally friendly cable polymer materials, targeting an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Insights - The wire and cable industry is a significant sector in China's economy, with a market size of approximately 1.30176 trillion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, and is expected to reach 1.35123 trillion RMB in 2024 [2] - The demand for cable materials is expected to rise significantly, driven by the increasing use of electric vehicles and offshore cables, prompting companies like Daon Co. to acquire firms like Anhui Bost New Materials to deepen their involvement in the cable materials sector [3] Group 4: Material Composition and Trends - The structure of power cables includes various components such as conductors, insulation layers, fillers, armor layers, and outer protective layers, with materials like XLPE, PVC, and rubber being critical for insulation [4] - XLPE has become the preferred choice for insulation in cables rated at 3kV and above due to its performance advantages, particularly in high-voltage applications [4] - Despite the growth in domestic production, high-end materials for high-voltage cables still rely heavily on imports, with over 80% of specialized LDPE cable materials for high-voltage applications sourced from abroad [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Wanhua Chemical Group has won the China Quality Award due to its quality management model centered on customer orientation and driven by independent innovation and digital intelligence [1] - Wanhua Chemical is recognized as a global leader in the polyurethane industry and the most competitive MDI manufacturer, with a focus on three main business areas: polyurethane, petrochemicals, and fine chemicals [1] - The company has developed an integrated quality management model over 40 years, which emphasizes collaborative management across the entire value chain, driven by independent innovation and digital technology [1] Group 2 - Wanhua Chemical has achieved significant technological advancements, holding 17 globally pioneering technologies and over 8,200 high-quality invention patents, along with receiving national science and technology awards six times [1] - The Yantai Huangbohai New Area has established a quality award cultivation system that focuses on policy guidance, precise nurturing, and comprehensive service to enhance enterprise quality [1] - The cultivation system emphasizes intellectual property, standard innovation, quality improvement, and brand development as key areas of focus [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced significant market value shrinkage over the past year, particularly highlighted by the "924 market" event, with 170 stocks losing value from September 24, 2024, to September 16, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Value Shrinkage - A total of 170 stocks have seen their market value decrease, with 16 stocks losing over 10 billion yuan [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a market value loss of 106.9 billion yuan, representing a decline of 11.99% [2] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. experienced a market value reduction of 35.6 billion yuan, down 9.64% [2] - Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. saw a decrease of 29 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.78% drop [2] Group 2: Other Notable Companies - Guodian Technology & Environment Group Corporation lost 27.9 billion yuan, a decline of 11.43% [2] - Huaneng Water Power Co., Ltd. reported a market value decrease of 21.96 billion yuan, down 9.84% [2] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation's market value shrank by 15.6 billion yuan, a 6.59% decline [2] - Other companies such as China Coal Energy Company and Huali Group also reported significant losses, with declines of 11.88% and 14.84% respectively [2]

Summary of Global Chemicals Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Global Chemicals** industry, particularly the impact of China's anti-involution measures and global supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector [1][3][10]. Key Themes and Insights 1. **Global Supply Growth Projections**: - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global supply from 2024 to 2028 is expected to be lower than from 2020 to 2024, with estimates of **3.1%** in a bear case (no Chinese closures) and **2.0%** in a bull case (all capacities over 20 years old closed) [1][21][52]. - The previous CAGR from 2020 to 2024 was **3.9%**, indicating a more disciplined supply growth moving forward [21][52]. 2. **Impact of China's Anti-Involution Measures**: - China's government is focusing on closing older capacities (over 20 years) to address oversupply issues in the refining and chemical markets [10][12]. - The anticipated recovery in the chemical sector is expected to be more meaningful from **mid-2026** onwards, contingent on the execution of these measures [13][23]. 3. **Investor Interest Reignited**: - The potential for anti-involution measures in China, combined with overseas chemical players closing plants due to high production costs, has rekindled investor interest in the chemical sector [3][10]. 4. **Product-Specific Capacity Growth**: - Capacity CAGRs for major products typically range from **1.0% to 6.4%** (without Chinese closures) and **0.8% to 4.0%** (with closures) [8][54]. - Specific products like ethylene and polyethylene are expected to see significant capacity additions in the upcoming years [65]. 5. **Profitability Trends**: - Major A-share chemical stocks have rallied approximately **10%** since the announcement of anti-involution measures on **July 18, 2025** [17]. - Despite a decline in profitability for major A-share companies in the first half of 2025, a seasonal recovery is expected in the second half [19][20]. Stock Recommendations - **China**: - Upgrade for **Wanhua** to Overweight (OW) with a price target of **Rmb80** due to expected benefits from volume growth and product spread expansion [25]. - Upgrade for **Rongsheng** to Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of **Rmb10.6**, anticipating quarterly earnings improvement [26]. - **Europe**: - Top pick is **Akzo**, with additional recommendations for **Syensqo**, **BASF**, and **AKE** [27][28]. - **India and Southeast Asia**: - Favorable outlook for **PTTGC** and **Petronas Chemicals** due to potential upside from China's anti-involution efforts [31]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include ineffective supply-side reforms, worsening demand due to trade tensions, and unfavorable inventory cycles [33]. Conclusion - The global chemicals industry is poised for a more disciplined growth phase, influenced by China's anti-involution measures and external market dynamics. The focus on closing older capacities and the potential for improved profitability in the coming years present both opportunities and risks for investors in this sector [1][10][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The green low-carbon related industries, including green methanol, bio-aviation fuel, and green polyester, are gaining market attention due to their vast market potential and the need for sustainable development [8] - The green polyester sector is particularly favored as new technologies are expected to drive rapid growth, allowing for the replacement of virgin materials and opening up significant new market opportunities [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends buying shares of Wan Kai New Materials (301216), which is well-positioned in the green polyester industry. Other recommended stocks include Sinopec (600028), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Wanhua Chemical (600309), and Huayi Group (600623) due to expected recovery in the petrochemical and chemical sectors driven by "anti-involution" policies. Additionally, it suggests buying shares of pesticide formulation companies such as Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035), Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749), and Hailier (603639) [3]

Summary of Wanhua Chemical Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - Wanhua Chemical is a major supplier in the global MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) market, holding a 32% share of global MDI capacity, while China's consumption accounts for 20% of the global total [2][3][5] - The MDI industry is characterized by an oligopolistic market structure, with key players including Wanhua Chemical, BASF, Huntsman, and Covestro [4][6] Core Insights and Arguments - Wanhua Chemical has mastered the core technology for MDI manufacturing, leading in technology, processes, and costs globally [2][5][6] - From 2020 to 2024, the export volume of polymer MDI is expected to increase, but a decline is anticipated in 2025 due to U.S. anti-dumping duties [2][7] - The downstream demand for MDI is closely linked to the white goods, real estate, and automotive sectors. Although the Chinese real estate market is currently weak, policy adjustments may lead to a recovery [2][8] - The U.S. real estate and automotive markets significantly influence MDI demand. A projected interest rate cut in the U.S. is expected to improve demand in these sectors, boosting MDI exports [2][11] Key Data and Projections - Wanhua Chemical plans to add 700,000 tons of MDI capacity in Fujian, expected to be operational by Q2 2026, increasing total MDI and TDI capacity to 5.97 million tons [4][15][17] - If domestic consumption grows and export volumes increase, domestic MDI operating rates are expected to rise [12][13] - Historical data shows that MDI prices have experienced significant increases during certain periods, correlating with housing completion and sales data in China and the U.S. [14] Additional Important Insights - The domestic MDI supply-demand balance has shown a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% in capacity over the past five years, while apparent consumption has remained stable [12] - Wanhua Chemical's MDI business accounts for approximately 68% of total revenue, making it a critical cash cow for the company [15] - The company is undergoing a technical transformation in its petrochemical segment, which is expected to contribute additional profit margins upon completion [20] - The management is actively implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, with a notable decrease in financial and management expenses [20] Market Outlook - The future MDI market outlook is optimistic, with expectations of improved operating rates and increased demand driven by the U.S. interest rate cut [16] - Wanhua Chemical's price elasticity is significant, with potential profit increases from price differentials in MDI and petrochemical segments [17] Trading Considerations - Most negative factors have been priced in, with Wanhua's price-to-book ratio being reasonable compared to peers [19] - The inflow of ETF funds into the chemical sector, where Wanhua holds a nearly 10% weight, is expected to enhance market performance [21]