（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华金证券8月15日发布研报称，给予万华化学（600309.SH，最新价：63.21元）买入评级。评级理由主 要包括：1）持续优化结构，产销增长对冲行业下行；2）提质增效，强化经营思维；3）坚持创新驱 动，加速技术成果转化。风险提示：需求不及预期；项目进度不确定性；贸易摩擦风险；安全环保风 险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant presence of social security funds in the stock market, particularly focusing on their investments in various sectors and specific companies as of the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Social Security Fund Holdings - As of August 13, 2025, 281 A-share listed companies have disclosed their mid-year reports, with 42 companies having social security funds among their top ten circulating shareholders [3][6]. - The total number of shares held by social security funds amounts to 789 million, with a market value of 14 billion yuan [3][9]. - The top three companies by market value held by social security funds are Changshu Bank (20.47 billion yuan), Pengding Holdings (13.78 billion yuan), and Haida Group (12.32 billion yuan) [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Social security funds have significant holdings in the basic chemical and banking sectors, each exceeding 2 billion yuan, while holdings in the electronics and pharmaceutical sectors exceed 1.2 billion yuan [9][11]. - The total market value of social security fund holdings in the basic chemical sector is 23.97 billion yuan, and in the banking sector, it is 20.47 billion yuan [9][11]. Group 3: Changes in Holdings - In the second quarter of 2025, social security funds entered the top ten shareholders of 15 new stocks, with notable investments in Yanjing Beer, Chuanfeng Power, and Weixing Chemical, each exceeding 300 million yuan [6][9]. - The largest increase in holdings was seen in Changshu Bank, with an additional 23.8 million shares acquired, followed by Haida Group and Pengding Holdings with increases of 10.15 million shares and 6.51 million shares, respectively [8][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential in the chemical raw materials sector, particularly in new materials and carbon capture technologies, with a focus on domestic opportunities in adsorption materials and equipment [5][6][7] - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a recovery, driven by new IPO pricing regulations in Hong Kong, which are expected to enhance market stability and attract more mainland companies to list [9] - Satellite Chemical is positioned for growth through its functional chemical products, with a significant increase in R&D investment aimed at high-end new materials [11][12] - Wanhua Chemical is maintaining stable operations in its polyurethane business while accelerating its new materials layout, despite facing challenges in its petrochemical segment [15][16] Industry Commentary - The new materials sector has shown resilience, with the new materials index rising by 2.57%, outperforming the ChiNext index by 2.09% [6] - Key price movements in the amino acids and biodegradable materials markets indicate a mixed trend, with some prices declining while others remain stable [6] - The DAC (Direct Air Capture) technology is gaining traction, with Western Oil's updates on project progress and partnerships indicating strong market demand for carbon removal technologies [6][7] Company Analysis - Satellite Chemical reported a 20.9% year-on-year increase in total revenue for H1 2025, driven by its functional chemicals segment, which saw a 32.1% revenue growth [14] - Wanhua Chemical's H1 2025 revenue decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline in net profit, but its polyurethane and fine chemicals segments showed resilience [16] - Tianzhun Technology has made significant strides in the semiconductor and intelligent control sectors, with substantial revenue growth in visual measurement and intelligent driving solutions [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the domestic polyether industry, highlighting strong growth potential supported by overseas demand and competitive advantages of domestic companies [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The export volume of domestic polyether polyols reached 1.3154 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.43% compared to 1.1014 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The average price of soft foam polyether was significantly low in the first half of 2025, with prices at 8190 yuan/ton in Q1 and 7366 yuan/ton in Q2, but showed a rebound in Q3, reaching 8306 yuan/ton by mid-August [2]. - The report notes frequent exits of overseas production capacity, which has led to a notable increase in domestic export volumes, particularly to markets like India and Vietnam, with growth rates of 59.00% and 55.04% respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Export Growth - Domestic polyether polyols exports maintained high growth, with June 2025 exports reaching 219,600 tons, a 14.19% increase year-on-year [1]. - Monthly export growth rates for the first half of 2025 were 21.71%, 28.80%, 11.06%, 14.15%, 32.10%, and 14.19% respectively [1]. Price Trends - The average price of soft foam polyether was 9867 yuan/ton in 2023, dropping to 8911 yuan/ton in 2024, and further declining to 8190 yuan/ton and 7366 yuan/ton in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 [2]. - Prices began to recover in Q3 2025, with July averaging 7617 yuan/ton and August reaching 8306 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of 3.41% and 12.75% from Q2 [2]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive advantage of domestic companies as overseas firms face operational challenges, leading to supply disruptions [3]. - Key companies identified for investment include Longhua New Materials and Wanhua Chemical, both of which are significant players in the domestic polyether market [4].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 90.901 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [6] - The polyurethane segment showed revenue growth of 4.04% year-on-year, with production and sales volumes increasing by 150,000 tons and 340,000 tons respectively [7] - The petrochemical segment experienced a revenue decline of 11.73% year-on-year, but production and sales volumes increased by 180,000 tons and 100,000 tons respectively [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in product prices during the peak season in the second half of the year [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.07% [6] - The net profit for Q2 was 3.041 billion yuan, down 24.30% year-on-year and 1.34% quarter-on-quarter [6] Segment Analysis Polyurethane Segment - Revenue reached 36.888 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.68%, down 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The average market price for pure MDI was around 18,800 yuan/ton, while the average for TDI products was 12,400 yuan/ton [7] Petrochemical Segment - Revenue was 34.934 billion yuan, with a gross margin of -0.37%, down 4.90 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The average prices for various petrochemical products showed mixed performance, with some experiencing significant declines [8] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its production capacity in the polyurethane and new materials sectors, with expected increases in MDI and TDI capacities [9] - New projects in the lemon aldehyde and nylon sectors are set to enhance the company's new materials business [11] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 14.358 billion, 16.498 billion, and 17.370 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.73, 11.95, and 11.35 [12]

Group 1 - The 2025 Shandong Clean Energy Industry Expo is being organized with a focus on creating a benchmark event for the industry [5] - Yantai City has established a comprehensive preparation team involving multiple departments to ensure the successful hosting of the expo [5] - The expo aims to attract quality enterprises through targeted marketing strategies, including online promotion and direct outreach to key industry players [5][6] Group 2 - The venue, Yantai Bajiao Bay International Convention and Exhibition Center, is undergoing upgrades to enhance its facilities for the expo [6] - Transportation plans include special bus routes and traffic management to facilitate easy access for attendees [6] - Safety measures are being coordinated among various departments to ensure a secure environment during the event [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's polyurethane and fine chemicals businesses are performing steadily, while the petrochemical business is under profit pressure [6] - The company is expected to benefit from technological innovation and capacity upgrades, enhancing cost control and product competitiveness [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 90.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.12 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 47.83 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.0% and an increase of 11.1% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 13.84% and 7.39%, respectively, both showing declines compared to the previous year [6] Product Performance Summary - Revenue from the polyurethane series, petrochemical series, and fine chemicals and new materials series was 36.89 billion yuan, 34.93 billion yuan, and 15.63 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.0%, -11.7%, and +20.4% [6] - The sales volume for these product lines was 3.03 million tons, 2.85 million tons, and 1.19 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.6%, 3.6%, and 29.3% [6] Market Conditions and Outlook - The polyurethane prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and supply-side optimization, with recent price increases for pure MDI and TDI of 5.3% and 37.0%, respectively [7] - The company is accelerating its new materials layout and enhancing product competitiveness through innovation and capacity expansion [8][10] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.72 billion yuan, 16.91 billion yuan, and 19.08 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [11] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 201.98 billion yuan, 221.05 billion yuan, and 245.74 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 9.4%, and 11.2% [13][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company reported a sales revenue of 90.914 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [1]. - Despite the decline in revenue and profit, the company experienced growth in the sales volume of its main products, particularly in the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemical sectors [2]. - The company has successfully launched several self-developed projects, which are expected to significantly reduce production costs and enhance profitability [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 12.187 billion yuan, 13.662 billion yuan, and 16.014 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x [5][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 6.123 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.10% year-on-year, with a revenue of 90.914 billion yuan, down 6.35% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04% but an increase of 11.07% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Product Sales - The sales volume of polyurethane products reached 3.03 million tons in H1 2025, up 12.64% year-on-year, while petrochemical products sold 2.85 million tons, an increase of 3.64% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the sales volume of fine chemicals and new materials surged by 29.35% year-on-year, totaling 1.19 million tons [2]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary Ningbo Wanhua reported a revenue of 14.449 billion yuan, down 20.72% year-on-year, but its net profit increased by 34.33% to 2.344 billion yuan [3]. - Borsod Chem, another subsidiary, faced a net loss of 89 million yuan, a significant decline of 185.82% year-on-year [3]. Strategic Developments - The company has accelerated the lightening of petrochemical raw materials and successfully launched multiple self-developed projects, including a new ethylene unit and advancements in battery materials [4]. - The company is focusing on continuous technological innovation and industry chain layout in the fields of polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials [4].

Summary of Wanhua Chemical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Wanhua Chemical - **Industry**: Chemicals, specifically polyurethanes - **Market Share**: ~30% for MDI, 19% for TDI, and 21% for aliphatic diisocyanates (ADI) [12][62] Key Financial Performance - **2Q NP**: Rmb3 billion, down 1% q/q and 24% y/y, in line with expectations [2] - **1H25 NP**: Represented 46% of the full-year estimate of Rmb13.2 billion [2] - **GPM**: 12% in 2Q, the lowest since 2002; 1H25 GPM turned negative for the first time in history at -0.4% [8][12] - **Admin Expenses**: Decreased by 41% q/q and 40% y/y to Rmb438 million, the lowest in recent years [8][27] Operational Insights - **Fujian Connell Expansion**: 330ktpa expansion started trial operations in July; slow ramp-up expected due to weak demand [2][19] - **TDI Prices**: Increased by 43% in July to Rmb16,700/t due to Covestro's force majeure; however, demand remains sluggish [8][19] - **Capacity Updates**: Major expansions planned, including a 700ktpa MDI capacity increase pending environmental approval [19] Market Dynamics - **Impact of US-China Trade War**: Escalation may lead to lower earnings for MDI exports and chemicals linked to global GDP/PMI [12][62] - **TDI and MDI Spread Sensitivity**: Wanhua is more exposed to MDI than TDI; a Rmb1,000/t increase in TDI spread could impact EPS by 4% [19] Financial Forecasts - **FY25 NP Forecast**: Expected decline of 5% y/y to Rmb12.4 billion [2] - **Price Target**: Rmb55 based on a 15x one-year forward P/E, consistent with historical averages [13][63] - **Consensus vs. JP Morgan Estimates**: JP Morgan's NP estimates are lower than consensus for FY25 and FY26 [23] Risks and Considerations - **Tariff Impacts**: Ongoing tariffs may affect earnings from MDI exports and other chemical products [12][62] - **Demand Weakness**: Slow demand recovery could limit price increases and affect profitability [8][19] Additional Insights - **Cost Control**: Management attributed flat performance to improved cost control despite declining MDI spreads [2] - **Future Capacity**: New capacities expected to come online in 2H25-1H26, including expansions in Hungary and Xinjiang [19][26] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Wanhua Chemical's financial performance, operational updates, market dynamics, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical's Q2 performance remained stable quarter-on-quarter, with governance improvements showing results [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the gross profit was 5.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.95 billion yuan compared to Q1 2025 [1] - The company effectively managed various expenses, resulting in a total profit decrease of only 0.185 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders remaining essentially flat [1] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in MDI and TDI products once global macroeconomic conditions stabilize, which could help reverse market pessimism regarding the company [1] - Wanhua's long-term ROE and historical growth are highlighted as strong points, maintaining a 15% valuation premium [1] Valuation - The target price is set at 96.36 yuan, corresponding to a 22x PE for 2025, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1]