证券研究报告 | 2025年08月05日 汽车行业周报（25 年第 27 周） 优于大市 行业进入中报业绩期，建议关注 2025 世界机器人大会 月度产销：7 月车市仍以以旧换新及报废更新"双新"政策为核心增长点， 乘联会预计7月狭义乘用车零售总市场预计为185万辆左右，同比增长7.6%， 环比下降 11.2%，其中新能源零售约 101 万左右，渗透率有望提升至 54.6%。 周度数据：根据乘联会数据统计，7 月 1-27 日，全国乘用车市场零售 144.5 万辆，同比增长 9%，环比下降 19%；全国乘用车厂商批发 150.5 万辆，同比 增长 17%，环比下降 25%。根据上险数据，6.30-7.27 国内乘用车累计上牌 161.80 万辆，同比+6.3%；其中新能源乘用车累计上牌 87.70 万辆，同比 +14.7%。 本周行情：本周（20250728-20250801）CS 汽车下跌 2.26%，CS 乘用车下跌 2.73%，CS 商用车下跌 1.28%，CS 汽车零部件下跌 2.12%，CS 汽车销售与服 务下跌 1.58%，CS 摩托车及其他下跌 2.45%，电动车下跌 5.01%，智能车下 跌 ...

Group 1 - The commercial vehicle sector increased by 0.37% on August 5, with Shuguang Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.6, up 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11106.96, up 0.59% [1] - Key stocks in the commercial vehicle sector showed varied performance, with Shuguang Co. closing at 3.72, up 2.76% [1] Group 2 - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a net outflow of 4.92 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 3.58 billion yuan [2] - Among individual stocks, China National Heavy Duty Truck had a net inflow of 972.34 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 1499.16 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Foton Motor and Shuguang Co. also showed mixed fund flows, with Foton Motor seeing a net inflow of 731.12 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, China's automotive production and sales both exceeded 15.6 million units, with year-on-year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [2] - Passenger car production and sales surpassed 13.5 million units, reflecting a growth of approximately 13% [2] - The sales data prompted various automakers to adjust their annual targets, with some expressing confidence and others entering a "wartime state" due to competitive pressures [2][3] Group 2: Company Strategies and Targets - Geely Auto achieved 52% of its annual sales target with 1.409 million units sold, leading to an 11% upward revision of its target from 2.71 million to 3 million units [3] - Dongfeng Motor aims to challenge a sales target of 1.88 million units in the second half, with a total goal of 3 million units, including 1 million in new energy vehicles [3] - Chery Auto plans to reach a sales target of 2 million units in the second half, with a revenue goal of over 600 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Product Launches and Innovations - Several automakers are set to launch new models in the second half, including SAIC's new vehicles and Geely's five hybrid products [4] - The automotive industry is focusing on the iteration of intelligent technologies, with more L3-level conditional autonomous driving solutions expected to be announced [5] - Companies like Chery and Geely are restructuring their organizational frameworks to enhance operational efficiency and product development [5] Group 4: Profitability Challenges - Despite strong sales growth, the automotive industry faces low profit margins, with a reported profit margin of 4.8% for the first half of the year, below the industrial average of 5.15% [6] - From 2020 to 2024, the industry's profits decreased from 215.1 billion yuan to 65.4 billion yuan, a reduction of 70% [6] - Many automakers, including GAC Group and BAIC Blue Valley, are expected to report significant losses for the first half of the year due to various operational challenges [7][8] Group 5: Industry Competition and Regulation - The automotive industry is experiencing increasing pressure to address "involution" in pricing, with government bodies taking steps to regulate competition [9][10] - Recent government meetings have focused on curbing irrational competition in the new energy vehicle sector, which has been detrimental to profit margins [10] - Experts suggest that while regulatory measures may help stabilize profit margins, addressing the root causes of irrational pricing behavior is essential for long-term improvement [11]

Core Viewpoint - Since July, the A-share market has rebounded, leading to a continuous increase in financing balance, reaching a record high in over 10 years by July 31 [1][3]. Financing Balance Overview - As of August 1, the A-share market financing balance was reported at 1,966.27 billion yuan, with a margin trading balance of 135.83 billion yuan. The financing balance increased by 128.13 billion yuan since July [1][3]. - In July, there were 24 trading days, with financing balance increases on 21 days, accounting for nearly 90%. Notably, on July 21, 22, 28, and 29, the financing balance increased by over 15 billion yuan each day [3]. Industry Performance - Among the 31 primary industries, 30 saw an increase in financing balance since July. The pharmaceutical and biological industry led with a net buying amount of 15.63 billion yuan, followed by electronics at 13.75 billion yuan and electric power equipment at 10.80 billion yuan [3][5]. - The only industry to experience net selling was the oil and petrochemical sector, with a net selling amount of 1.19 billion yuan [3]. Individual Stock Performance - The top ten stocks with the highest net buying amounts since July include: - Xinyi Technology: 3.18 billion yuan - Northern Rare Earth: 2.18 billion yuan - Shenghong Technology: 1.49 billion yuan - Feilihua: 1.46 billion yuan - Jianghuai Automobile: 1.41 billion yuan - WuXi AppTec: 1.37 billion yuan - CATL: 1.31 billion yuan - China Power Construction: 1.17 billion yuan - Kweichow Moutai: 1.08 billion yuan - Changjiang Electric Power: 1.07 billion yuan [7][8]. - The majority of these stocks have seen significant price increases, with Feilihua rising nearly 60% [7]. Net Selling Overview - Since July, 83 stocks experienced net selling exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top ten being: - CITIC Securities: -1.11 billion yuan - Sunshine Power: -767 million yuan - Wuliangye: -627 million yuan - Sifang Jingchuang: -569 million yuan - BOE Technology: -489 million yuan - BeiGene: -425 million yuan - Ningbo Bank: -395 million yuan - Muyuan Foods: -386 million yuan - GF Securities: -382 million yuan - Hengli Petrochemical: -367 million yuan [10][11]. Margin Trading Overview - As of August 1, the A-share market's margin trading balance was 135.83 billion yuan, with an increase of 1.28 billion yuan since July [13]. - The stocks with the highest margin trading balances included Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, and Ping An Insurance [13]. Conclusion - The A-share market has shown a robust increase in financing activities, particularly in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors, indicating strong investor confidence and potential growth opportunities in these industries [1][3][5].

据中国机械工业联合会，今年上半年，新能源汽车市场渗透率达44.3%，创同期历史新高。 乘联分会：7月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量118万辆，同比增长25% 据乘联分会消息，根据月度初步乘联数据综合预估：7月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量118万辆，同比 增长25%，环比下降4%。今年1-7月累计批发763万辆，同比增长35%。 余承东：尊界S800车型累计大定超1万台 8月4日，华为常务董事、终端BG董事长余承东宣布，尊界S800上市67天大定突破10000台。据了解，尊 界S800为华为与江淮汽车合作的尊界品牌首款车型，官方售价70.8万-101.8万元，大规模交付将于8月中 旬全面开展。 今年上半年新能源汽车市场渗透率创同期历史新高 国家企业信用信息公示系统网站显示，7月31日，爱驰汽车有限公司新增一则股权冻结信息，股权所在 企业为上海爱驰亿维汽车销售有限公司，冻结股权数额7亿人民币，冻结期限3年，执行法院为上海市黄 浦区人民法院。 吉利智驾整合：吉利研究院等三大团队并入新公司，规模3000人 极狐汽车与广汽能源开启充电网络共享合作 据21财经，吉利控股集团近期对吉利系内部智驾公司、团队进行了一轮大整合。极 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has experienced a significant increase in sales, with July 2025 showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 42%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth since April 2025 [2][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July 2025, approximately 83,000 heavy trucks were sold, a decrease of 15% from June but an increase of about 42% compared to the same month last year [2][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the heavy truck market sales reached approximately 622,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 11% [2]. - The sales figures for July 2025 are the second highest in the past eight years, only behind July 2020 [2]. Group 2: Segment Analysis - The sales of electric heavy trucks in July 2025 exceeded 15,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of over 120% [9]. - The domestic terminal sales of diesel heavy trucks in July 2025 are expected to grow by over 25% year-on-year, despite a significant month-on-month decline [11]. - The gas truck segment saw a recovery in terminal sales, with a domestic penetration rate rising from below 20% in June to approximately 24% in July [7]. Group 3: Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) sold about 22,000 heavy trucks in July 2025, maintaining the highest market share at approximately 27.5% [14]. - FAW Jiefang sold around 15,000 heavy trucks in July 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of about 42% [16]. - Beiqi Foton reported the highest year-on-year growth among major companies, with sales of approximately 11,500 units in July 2025, reflecting a growth rate of about 134% [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The heavy truck market is expected to see significant growth in the third quarter of 2025, driven by the "old-for-new" policy for trucks and the low sales figures from the previous year [24]. - The year-on-year growth rate for September 2025 is anticipated to exceed 50% [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the humanoid robotics sector and related companies [6][9][46]. Core Insights - The 2025 World Robot Conference is set to showcase over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 companies, emphasizing innovation and collaboration within the robotics industry [4][5]. - The humanoid robotics sector is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from virtual to real-world applications, which is expected to drive demand and create new market opportunities [6][9]. - The report identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including Shuanglin Co., Ltd., Leedick, and others, based on their positioning in the humanoid robotics and automotive sectors [9][46]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown a 36.5% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the broader market [2][17]. - The report notes a decline in the automotive index by 2.1% recently, lagging behind the overall market performance [16][22]. Company Announcements and New Models - NIO's L90 and Li Auto's i8 have been launched, with the L90 priced starting at 279,900 CNY and the i8 ranging from 321,800 to 369,800 CNY, both featuring advanced electric vehicle technologies [7][8][63]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of these new models in enhancing the companies' market positions and technological capabilities [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their roles in the humanoid robotics and automotive sectors, including Shuanglin Co., Ltd., Leedick, and others, emphasizing their growth potential and market positioning [9][46][48].

8月4日，江淮汽车大宗交易成交15万股，成交额729.75万元，占当日总成交额的0.14%，成交价48.65元，较市场收盘价48.65元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-04 | | | | | 华泰证券股份有限 | 国泰海通证券股份 | | | 江淮汽车 | 600418 | 48.65 729.75 | ાર | 公司北京雍和宫证 | 有限公司总部 | ...

当"双碳"战略驱动绿色物流提速，当电商与即时配送重塑城市运输图谱，新能源城配物流车市 场正迎来爆发前夜。根据多方预测，2025年下半年细分市场或将迎来需求井喷。然而，审视 市场格局，虽有零星新品点缀，却始终缺乏一套体系化、一站式、全场景覆盖的新能源物流解 决方案。近日，江淮1van于庐州故里以"为用户而生 为价值而来"为主题，重磅发布江淮1van 全系新品，以卡系、VAN系、无人车三大品系构成的完整产品矩阵，精准锚定不同经营场景痛 点，宣告新能源城配物流车迈入"全场景解决方案"的江淮时代。 全场景覆盖精准洞察 打造创富利器 "当前，国内经济面对重大战略机遇期，从国内国际双循环，到供给侧改革，消费需求带动物 流产业高质量发展，为新能源汽车的大规模进入市场创造了有利条件。"通过对商用车行业发 展趋势和市场需求的深入洞察，江汽集团商用车营销事业部副总经理万锋剖析了新能源商用 车，特别是城配物流需求将迎来快速增长的底层逻辑。 具体来看，江淮1van 全系应用160余项轻量化技术，实现整车减重5%-12%，显著提升能 效；智能底盘整合线控制动、转向与悬架，辅以CTC电池车身一体化技术，以硬核技术赋能产 品力。此外，还有 ...

Core Insights - Jianghuai Automobile received a net financing inflow of 196 million yuan last week, ranking 32nd in the two markets [1] - The company operates in various sectors including automotive manufacturing, new energy vehicles, and autonomous driving [1] Financing and Market Activity - Last week, Jianghuai Automobile had a total financing amount of 2.978 billion yuan and repayment amount of 2.782 billion yuan [1] - Over the past 5 days, the main capital outflow was 448 million yuan with a decline of 2.53% [1] - Over the past 10 days, the main capital outflow was 70.6121 million yuan with a decline of 0.2% [1] Company Profile - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was established in 1999 and is located in Hefei City, primarily engaged in the automotive manufacturing industry [1] - The company has a registered capital of 21.84 billion yuan and a paid-in capital of 16.7968 billion yuan [1] - The legal representative of the company is Xiang Xingchu [1] Investment and Intellectual Property - Jianghuai Automobile has invested in 48 companies and participated in 5,000 bidding projects [1] - The company holds 946 trademark registrations and 5,000 patent registrations, along with 726 administrative licenses [1]