未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 2026年汽车行业总投资策略：如何【破旧立新】？ 我们认为2026年汽车或应该参考2011年或2018年（底线思维），汽车行业又重新站到了一个新 的十字路口。电动化行业红利接近尾声，智能化行业红利正在努力衔接，商用车/两轮车等子 板块成为好的投资补充领域。我们选择两条思路：1）寻找穿越周期α品种！2）拥抱下一轮产 业趋势（智能化+机器人/AIDC）。 2026年汽车板块最新景气度预测： 1）乘用车板块： 26年行业受新能源购置税征收5%影响，内需整体预期-3.5%。2026年总内需 销量2200万辆（同比-3.5%）,新能源内需销量1320万辆，同比+6.4%；2026年总外需销量641万 辆（同比+12.0%），新能源外需352万辆（同比+43.9%）。 2）重卡板块： 中性预测下，2026 年批发销量116万辆（同比+1.5%）,其中内需销量77万辆（同比-5.5%），外需销量39-40万辆 （同比+18.8%）。 3）客车板块： 预计26年内外需共振延续，其中出口增速有望维持30%以 上，新能源出口增速预计更快。2026年内需销量8.10万辆，同比+3%，出口7. ...

注：本分析文章仅代表崔东树个人观点，如有异议，请留言。 根据国家金融局交强险数据，国内商用车交强险数据的2025年商用车强势增长。由于新能源车强势增长和政策促进车辆更新，2025年新能源商用车整体呈 现快速拉升的良好局面。3-11月持续高位，新能源增长较强。11月商用车国内销量实现26万台，同比增4%，环比增4%。2025年1-11月商用车国内销量实 现281万台，同比增长9%。2025年1-11月新能源商用车累计达到77万台，同比增长54%。在2024年末政策翘尾后，2025年1月新能源表现相对较弱，2-9月 同比暴增， 11月份新能源商用车达到9.2万台，同比增长45%，环比增15%。 从2019-2021年，整个新能源商用车的渗透率在3%左右水平，2022年达到9%，2023年达到11%，2024年全年达到20%，2025年1-11月达到27%，同比增长7 个点，强于乘用车的增长，体现了新能源商用车强势增长良好态势。2025年11月商用车新能源渗透率36%， 较同期增长11个点，其中的卡车新能源渗透 率27%，客车新能源渗透率74%，较同期均有大幅提升。新能源商用车国内市场在政策推动下的表现相对较强，燃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting organized by the China Automobile Industry Association (CAIA) focused on the current operational status of the automotive industry and future market predictions, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and innovation among industry players to navigate global competition and achieve high-quality development [1][3][9]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting took place from December 15-17, 2025, in Xiamen, organized by CAIA and supported by Xiamen Golden Dragon Bus Co., Ltd, with participation from representatives of 27 key automotive enterprises [1]. - CAIA's Deputy Secretary-General Chen Shihua highlighted the meeting as a crucial platform for industry communication and addressing operational challenges [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - During the meeting, participants discussed the current state of the automotive industry, key issues, and policy recommendations, focusing on the implementation of "two new" policies, expanding automotive consumption, quality and after-sales service, and the development of both new energy and fuel vehicles [7]. - The meeting also included a market forecast session where CAIA's Industry Information Department shared preliminary insights on market trends for the upcoming year [7]. Group 3: Future Directions - Chen Shihua emphasized the importance of enterprises being close to the market and consumers for accurate analysis and predictions, which will support CAIA's future work [9]. - The automotive industry is recognized as a vital pillar of the national economy, with the government placing significant importance on its healthy development, and CAIA plans to continue self-regulation and standardization efforts in the industry [9].

证券研究报告 2026年汽车行业总投资策略： ——坚定"破旧立新" 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年12月19日 核心结论 2 ◼ 2026年汽车行业总投资策略：如何【破旧立新】？我们认为2026年汽车或应该参考2011年或2018年（底线 思维），汽车行业又重新站到了一个新的十字路口。电动化行业红利接近尾声，智能化行业红利正在努力衔接， 商用车/两轮车等子板块成为好的投资补充领域。我们选择两条思路：1）寻找穿越周期α品种！2）拥抱下一轮 产业趋势（智能化+机器人/AIDC）。 ◼ 2026年汽车板块最新景气度预测：1）乘用车板块：26年行业受新能源购置税征收5%影响，内需整体预期- 3.5%。2026年总内需销量2200万辆（同比-3.5%）,新能源内需销量1320万辆，同比+6.4%；2026年总外需 销量641万辆（同比+12.0%），新能源外需352万辆（同比+43.9%）。2）重卡板块：中性预测下，2026年 批发销量116万辆（同比+1.5%）,其中内需销量77万辆（同 ...

资料显示，厦门金龙汽车集团股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市湖里区湖里大道69号，成立日期1996年10 月18日，上市日期1993年11月8日，公司主营业务涉及大、中、轻型客车的生产和销售。主营业务收入 构成为：汽车及车身件94.59%，其他(补充)5.41%。 金龙汽车所属申万行业为：汽车-商用车-商用载客车。所属概念板块包括：福建国资、福建自贸区、无 人驾驶、燃料电池、融资融券等。 12月19日，金龙汽车盘中上涨2.00%，截至11:18，报16.29元/股，成交1.10亿元，换手率0.95%，总市值 116.81亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出312.89万元，特大单买入122.63万元，占比1.12%，卖出278.56万元，占 比2.54%；大单买入1430.71万元，占比13.03%，卖出1587.68万元，占比14.46%。 金龙汽车今年以来股价涨16.77%，近5个交易日跌1.21%，近20日涨15.61%，近60日涨40.80%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，金龙汽车十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第六大流 通股东，持股259.03万股，相比上期减少115.04万股。 责任 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日商用车板块主力资金净流入1.44亿元，游资资金净流出1.2亿元，散户资金净流 出2349.74万元。商用车板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，12月18日商用车板块较上一交易日下跌0.11%，金龙汽车领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3876.37，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于13053.98，下跌1.29%。商用车板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a decline of 1.42% on December 16, with Jinlong Automobile leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3824.81, down 1.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12914.67, down 1.51% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The commercial vehicle sector saw a net outflow of 256 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 132 million yuan [2][3]. - Key stocks in the commercial vehicle sector showed varied performance, with Foton Motor increasing by 1.46% to close at 2.78 yuan, while Jinlong Automobile fell by 6.45% to 16.10 yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Foton Motor had a trading volume of 1.2982 million shares and a transaction value of 359 million yuan [1]. - Dongfeng Motor closed at 7.13 yuan, with a trading volume of 229,100 shares and a transaction value of 163 million yuan [1]. - Jinlong Automobile led the decline with a trading volume of 421,600 shares and a transaction value of 699 million yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector opened high, with notable gains in various companies, indicating positive market sentiment in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Beiqi Blue Valley opened at the涨停价 (limit up price), reflecting strong investor interest [1] - Jinlong Automobile, Changan Automobile, Seres, Qianli Technology, and GAC Group also experienced upward movement, suggesting a broader rally in the automotive sector [1]

Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that King Long Automobile (SH 600686) held its 18th meeting of the 11th Board of Directors on December 12, 2025, via telecommunication, where it reviewed the proposal for the reappointment of the accounting firm [1] - For the year 2024, King Long Automobile's revenue composition is as follows: bus manufacturing accounts for 95.21%, while other businesses account for 4.79% [1] - As of the time of reporting, King Long Automobile has a market capitalization of 11.8 billion yuan [1]