Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]

新华财经北京2月8日电（陈冉）在近日发布的《2025 胡润未来独角兽：全球瞪羚企业榜》中，云深处 科技凭借具身智能领域的技术实力、成熟的商业化落地能力及显著的高速增长态势，成功入选。 早在2022年 杭州银行就率先发放500万元纯信用贷款解燃眉之急，后续将综合授信提升至8000万元，并 通过 "浙科领航联合贷" 形成资金合力，更促成其产业合作。 云深处科技的快速发展，与杭州银行十六年深耕科创金融的经验探索息息相关。 在程天科技服务亚残运会运动员的时候，企业已经发展较为成熟。杭州银行通过旗下财资平台，帮助企 业解决了多银行账户管理难题，同时发挥投贷联动的优势，为企业对接投融资资源。"我们不光为其提 供贷款，更多是服务于企业多样化的金融需求。"杭州银行相关负责人如是说。 多维赋能体系 超越信贷的全生命周期陪伴 不同于传统金融服务的 "单点支持"，杭州银行构建了涵盖资金融通、资源链接、政策对接、高效结算 的综合服务体系，让支持不止于贷款。 在足式与人形机器人赛道，杭州银行的陪伴式服务见证企业从初创到全球领跑。针对云深处科技B轮融 资后研发投入加码、订单周期错配的痛点，杭州银行不但于2022年率先发放信用贷款，更通过 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report anticipates new RMB loans in January to be between 5.1 to 5.25 trillion yuan, with a corresponding loan growth rate declining to approximately 6.3% [4][6] - The expected new social financing scale for January is projected to be between 7.41 to 7.57 trillion yuan, maintaining a stock growth rate of around 8.3% [21][25] - The report highlights a strong performance in corporate activities, with expectations for increased credit supply due to a favorable lending environment and government policies [8][28] Summary by Sections 1. RMB Loans - New RMB loans are expected to be between 5.1 to 5.25 trillion yuan, with a growth rate declining to around 6.3% [4][6] - The monthly increase is projected to vary between a decrease of 300 million to an increase of 1.2 billion yuan [8] 2. Social Financing - The anticipated new social financing scale for January is between 7.41 to 7.57 trillion yuan, with a stock growth rate around 8.3% [21][25] - The report notes that the net financing scale of local government bonds and corporate credit bonds is expected to be 1.181 trillion yuan and 490.3 billion yuan respectively [25] 3. Liquidity - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to rise due to a low base effect, with M1 projected at 4.0% and M2 at 8.7% [26] - The report indicates that the increase in government and credit bonds' net financing will impact market liquidity [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in bank stock investment logic from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," emphasizing the attractiveness of high-dividend bank stocks during economic stagnation [28] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividends [28]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 来源：看懂经济 上个月杭州银行交出了2025年的成绩单。 这份业绩快报：总资产突破2.36万亿，净利润迈上190亿大关。 但营收和净利润的走势，出现了背离。一边是营业收入仅微增1.09%；另一边是归母净利润却保持了 12.05%的双位数高增长——增利不增收。 作为城商行阵营中公认的"优等生"，杭州银行在资产规模扩张和资产质量上依旧保持着领跑姿态。 但在营收增长乏力的背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的经营逻辑？未来这种增长能否持续？ | | | | 早世:八代中化九 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2025 年度 (未经审计) | 2024 年度 (经审计) | 增减变动幅度(%) | | 营业收入 | 387.99 | 383.81 | 1.09 | | 营业利润 | 212.10 | 192.59 | 10.13 | | 利润总额 | 211.89 | 192.26 | 10.21 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 190.30 | 169.83 | 12.05 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润 | 18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for institutional research on listed banks has increased since the beginning of the year, with a focus on credit allocation and interest margin management for 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Research Activity - As of February 5, 2026, 12 regional banks have received 155 institutional research visits, totaling 327 interactions [1][3]. - Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank has been actively engaging with multiple institutions, receiving five visits in less than a week [2]. - Shanghai Bank has been the most scrutinized, with 75 institutions participating in nine rounds of research since January 12, 2026 [3]. Group 2: Credit Allocation Focus - The "opening red" credit allocation for 2026 is a key focus, with banks reporting a positive start and increased public loan allocations compared to previous years [5]. - Banks like Hangzhou Bank and Zhangjiagang Bank are targeting key industries and projects, including infrastructure and technological upgrades [5][6]. - Analysts expect that new RMB loans in January 2026 will be around 5 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of approximately 6.2% [6]. Group 3: Deposit Structure Adjustments - The net interest margin for banks has been narrowing, with a historical low of 1.42% as of Q3 2025 [7]. - Banks are planning to optimize their liability structures and control deposit costs to stabilize interest margins [7][8]. - Institutions like Zijin Bank and Shanghai Bank are focusing on adjusting deposit sources and terms to manage costs effectively [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook on Interest Margins - Shanghai Bank anticipates a continued decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2026, which may lead to a further decrease in interest margins [8]. - Regional banks are expected to maintain stable earnings, although there may be a divergence in performance based on regional economic vitality [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with notable gains in the battery, automotive parts, and securities industries [1][2]. - The companies with the highest target price increases include: - Fulin Precision Engineering with a target price increase of 64.96% [3] - Weichai Power with a target price increase of 57.67% [3] - Industrial Securities with a target price increase of 33.33% [3] Group 2 - On February 5, a total of 21 listed companies received recommendations from brokers, with Chongqing Beer receiving the most recommendations at 3 [4]. - The companies with multiple broker recommendations include: - Chongqing Beer with 3 recommendations [4] - Huanxu Electronics with 2 recommendations [4] Group 3 - Four companies received their first coverage on February 5, including: - Nanshan Aluminum with a "Buy" rating from Guosheng Securities [5] - Jiantou Energy with a "Buy" rating from Changjiang Securities [5] - Hangzhou Bank with a "Buy" rating from Northeast Securities [5] - Xiechuang Data with a "Buy" rating from Huaxin Securities [5]

Core Viewpoint - A significant market shift occurred as global funds fled from technology stocks and precious metals, leading to a notable decline in major indices and a surge in bank stocks as a safe haven for investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 4, U.S. tech stocks experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% and major companies like Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla falling more than 3%. AMD saw a staggering drop of 17.3%, marking its largest single-day decline in nearly nine years [1][3]. - The panic spread to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with sectors like solar energy and precious metals witnessing significant sell-offs. Silver futures plummeted nearly 20% at one point, exacerbating market fears [2][5]. - Despite the overall market turmoil, the banking sector in A-shares rose by 2.1%, with all 42 bank stocks closing in the green, indicating a flight to safety among investors [2][10]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of over 22 billion HKD, with major Chinese banks like ICBC, CMB, and CCB becoming core targets for accumulation [3][13]. - A significant shift in capital is underway, with funds moving from tech and precious metals to banks, which are perceived as having a higher safety margin [3][9]. Group 3: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector is supported by strong earnings growth and historically low valuations, making it an attractive option for risk-averse investors [15][20]. - As of February 4, several banks reported robust earnings, with Qingdao Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and others showing significant profit increases, further solidifying the sector's appeal [16][18]. - The banking sector's average dividend yield ranges from 4.87% to 5.2%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of around 2%, enhancing its attractiveness in a low-interest-rate environment [21][22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent market volatility raises questions about whether the declines in tech stocks and precious metals will lead to further panic selling. However, the influx of funds into bank stocks suggests a potential shift in market sentiment [23].

Core Viewpoint - A significant market shift is occurring, characterized by a mass exodus of funds from technology and precious metals sectors, with a notable influx into bank stocks as a safe haven amid rising panic and volatility [2][5][21]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. tech stocks experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%, and major companies like Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla falling more than 3%. AMD saw a staggering drop of 17.3%, marking its largest single-day decline in nearly nine years [2][5]. - Panic spread to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with sectors like solar energy and oil equipment witnessing significant sell-offs. Precious metals, which had recently rebounded, also faced a sharp decline, with silver futures plummeting nearly 20% in a single day [3][5]. - The market turmoil was triggered by negative news affecting U.S. tech stocks, leading to a valuation bubble burst. Despite AMD's strong performance, its results fell short of the most optimistic analyst expectations, resulting in a drastic stock price drop [5][6]. Group 2: Bank Sector Resilience - In contrast to the broader market, the banking sector saw a rise, with A-share bank stocks collectively increasing by 2.1%. All 42 bank stocks closed in the green, with Xiamen Bank hitting a rare limit-up and several city commercial banks rising over 3% [3][15]. - Southbound funds significantly targeted bank stocks, with a net purchase exceeding 22 billion HKD, focusing on major banks like ICBC, CMB, and CCB as core investment targets [4][20]. - The banking sector is viewed as a "safe haven" due to its strong earnings growth and historically low valuations, making it an attractive option for risk-averse investors [21][22]. Group 3: Earnings and Valuation - Recent earnings reports from several banks indicate robust growth, with Qingdao Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank showing significant increases in net profits. For instance, Qingdao Bank reported a net profit of 51.88 billion CNY, a 21.66% year-on-year increase [23][25]. - The banking sector has undergone a six-month correction, leading to a new valuation bottom. The sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at a low 6.7 times, and the average dividend yield is between 4.87% and 5.2%, making it appealing in a low-interest-rate environment [27][28]. - Institutional interest in bank stocks is rising, with over 370 institutions conducting research on 11 listed banks, indicating a strategic shift towards these stocks amid market volatility [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector experienced a collective rise, with all 42 stocks showing positive performance, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector index rebounded from a low of 6627.36 points on January 29 to close at 6904.39 points, indicating a clear recovery trend [1] - Qingdao Bank led the sector with a 23.88% increase, followed by Ningbo Bank at 15.81%, and several other banks showing gains exceeding 8% [1] Group 2: Factors Driving the Rise - Multiple factors contributed to the rise in bank stocks, including positive earnings forecasts for 2025, stable revenue and net profit growth, and improving asset quality [2] - The banking sector is expected to continue the "early investment, early returns" strategy in 2026, with projected new credit accounting for 62%-65% of the annual total in the first quarter [2] - A shift in market sentiment from growth to value has led to a flow of funds back into undervalued banking stocks, which are seen as defensive investments [2]

请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 比例为 25.3%、11.4%，分别环比上年末上升 6.2、1.7 个百分点。 210.33 亿元、231.78 亿元，分别同比增长 12.06%、10.52%、10.20%。 首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 深耕杭州，在浙江其他城市仍有较大发展空间。（1）浙江省经济环境好， GDP 总量多年位居全国第四，2024 年人均 GDP、人均可支配收入、信 贷增速均位居全国前列。（2）从分支机构来看，截至 1H25，银行在浙江 省内共有 212 家分支机构，其中杭州市 128 家，其他 GDP 较高城市网点 数量相对较少，未来在省内仍有较大发展空间。 存贷规模稳定增长，资产质量提升。（1）3Q25 银行贷款总额为 10255.73 亿元，同比增长 12.68%，其中公司贷款同比增长 19.53%至 7296.26 亿 元，占比为 71.14%，水利、环境和公共设施管理业增长较快；个人贷款 同比下降 1.27%至 2959.47 亿元。（2）3Q25 银行存款总额为 13485.77 亿 元，同比增长 14.59%，其中公司存款同比增长 10.17%至 9443.15 亿元， 占比为 70 ...