Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank (600926) is maintained at "Buy" [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 1.09% year-on-year and a net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 12.05% in 2025. The increase in non-interest income and a significant reduction in overdue loans are highlighted as key factors [6]. - The net interest income for 2025 is projected to be CNY 27.594 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.83%, indicating a stable net interest margin [6]. - The proportion of non-interest income has risen to 11%, with net commission income expected to reach CNY 4.207 billion, a growth of 13.10% year-on-year [6]. - The overdue loan ratio is significantly reduced, remaining stable at 0.76% as of the end of 2025, with a notable decrease in the ratio of overdue loans to non-performing loans [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected at CNY 38.798 billion, with a growth rate of 1.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 19.029 billion, with a growth rate of 12.05% [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be CNY 2.53 for 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 6.16x [9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 0.76%, with a significant reduction in overdue loans, which are expected to be only 0.42% of total loans by the end of 2025 [6][8]. - The provision coverage ratio is projected to be 541.45% for 2024, indicating strong asset quality management [8]. Growth Projections - Revenue growth is forecasted to accelerate to 12.70% in 2026 and 10.40% in 2027, while net profit growth is expected to be 14.45% in 2026 and 10.88% in 2027 [8][9]. - The bank's total assets are projected to grow steadily, with a significant increase in retail customer assets and wealth management products [6].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a fluctuating and differentiated pattern last week, with major indices showing mixed performance and active rotation among hot sectors [1][7] - Institutions generally hold an optimistic outlook, believing the market is likely to trend upward [1][7] - As of January 25, over 950 companies have disclosed their 2025 earnings forecasts, with around 40% of these companies showing positive performance [1][7] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry, particularly companies related to artificial intelligence, data center construction, and domestic substitution, is expected to see strong earnings growth in 2025 [1][8] - Notable companies include: - Zhongwei Semiconductor expects revenue of approximately 1.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 23%, and a net profit of 284 million yuan, up approximately 107% [8] - Juchip Technology anticipates revenue of 922 million yuan, a 41.44% increase, and a net profit of 204 million yuan, up 91.40% [2] - Baiwei Storage forecasts revenue between 10 billion to 12 billion yuan, a growth of 49.36% to 79.23%, and a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 427.19% to 520.22% [3][9] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a "polarized" performance, with over 60 companies disclosing earnings forecasts, about half of which are positive [1][9] - Key performers include: - Zhaoyan New Drug expects a net profit of approximately 233 million to 349 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 214% to 371% [10] - Shanghai Yizhong anticipates a net profit of 6 million to 7 million yuan, a growth of 760.18% to 903.54% [10] - However, companies like Zhifei Biological are projected to incur significant losses, with an expected net loss of 10.7 billion to 13.7 billion yuan [10][5] Banking Sector - As of January 25, eight listed banks have released earnings reports, with all showing year-on-year growth in net profit [5][11] - Key statistics include: - China Merchants Bank's total assets surpassing 13 trillion yuan, and Industrial Bank exceeding 11 trillion yuan [11] - The highest net profit growth among these banks is from Hangzhou Bank at 12.05%, followed by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank at 10.52% [11] - The growth drivers for banks include improved cost of liabilities and rapid growth in intermediary business income, with Ningbo Bank's net income from fees and commissions increasing by 30.72% [12]

2026 年 01 月 26 日 行业周报 看好/维持 银行 银行 银行周报（0119-0125）：总量货币政策仍有空间，结构性货币政 策先行落地 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) (2%) 6% 14% 22% 30% 25/1/27 25/4/9 25/6/20 25/8/31 25/11/11 26/1/22 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | 工商银行 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 农业银行 | 增持 | | 杭州银行 | 买入 | | 江苏银行 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<江苏银行 2025 年三季度点评：盈 利能力提升，资产规模稳增>>-- 2025-12-07 证券分析师：夏芈卬 电话：010-88695119 E-MAIL：xiama@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523030003 研究助理：王子钦 ◼ 子行业评级 | 国 有 大 型 银 | 看好 | | --- | --- | | 行Ⅱ | | | 全 国 性 股 份 | 看好 | | 制银行Ⅱ | | | 区域性银行 | 看好 | E-MAIL：wangziqin@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S119012 ...

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.13% compared to the previous trading day, with Qingdao Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qingdao Bank (002948) closed at 4.61, up 2.22% with a trading volume of 820,200 shares and a transaction value of 376 million [1] - Ningbo Bank (002142) closed at 30.55, up 0.86% with a trading volume of 507,200 shares and a transaction value of 1545 million [1] - Hangzhou Bank (600926) closed at 15.69, up 0.71% with a trading volume of 837,900 shares and a transaction value of 1323 million [1] - Qilu Bank (601665) closed at 5.59, up 0.54% with a trading volume of 649,200 shares and a transaction value of 363 million [1] - Chongqing Bank (601963) closed at 10.36, up 0.39% with a trading volume of 91,200 shares and a transaction value of 94.52 million [1] - Shanghai Bank (601229) closed at 9.27, up 0.11% with a trading volume of 635,000 shares and a transaction value of 593 million [1] - Other banks such as Changsha Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Suzhou Bank showed minimal changes in their stock prices [1] Capital Flow - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 404 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 4.15 billion [2] - The main funds' net inflow and outflow for individual banks varied, with Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank showing significant inflows [3] - Retail investors showed notable outflows in several banks, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [3]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower on January 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4139.9 points, up 0.18% [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.71% to 3342.6 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 1.51% to 1555.98 points [2] Trading Activity - A total of 1928 stocks rose, while 3450 stocks fell, with 91 stocks remaining flat [3] - The total trading volume was 28.949 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.533 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising more than 10% [5] - Gold stocks also performed well, with several stocks reaching the daily limit or increasing by over 10% [5] - Coal and basic metal sectors experienced notable declines, with major coal stocks dropping over 4% [6] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Financial analysts suggest that the A-share market may continue to experience fluctuations in the short term due to increased overseas uncertainties and pressure at previous high levels [7] - The current market is viewed as a short-term adjustment risk, with expectations for continued upward movement in the medium term [7] - Long-term perspectives indicate that the current market trend is still in its mid-stage, with potential for a "slow bull" market to continue [8][9] Investment Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors such as technology, particularly AI and robotics, as well as industries benefiting from price increases like chemicals and non-ferrous metals [8][9] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in power equipment and photovoltaic sectors, which are supported by market demand and policies [10]

数据显示，银行ETF华夏是跟踪中证银行指数综合费率最低的ETF，联接基金A类、联接基金C类、联接 基金D类。 近期，财政金融协同政策加码落地，对银行板块形成结构性支撑。1月20日国新办联合财政部等部门宣 布一揽子政策：中小企业贷款贴息1.5个百分点、设备更新贷款贴息范围扩大、消费与经营贷贴息延长 至2026年底、设立5000亿元民间投资专项担保计划、完善民企债券风险分担机制等。上述举措在降低社 会融资成本的同时，引导信贷资源向中小微、科创及扩内需领域倾斜，既优化银行资产结构，又通过风 险分担机制缓释不良压力，为息差企稳和资产质量改善提供中长期支撑。 截至2026年1月27日13:29，中证银行指数上涨0.93%，成分股农业银行上涨2.34%，青岛银行上涨 2.22%，建设银行上涨1.73%，中国银行上涨1.69%，杭州银行上涨1.6%。 ...

资产质量进一步改善 规模有序扩张 已披露2025年业绩快报的8家银行（4家股份行、3家城商行、1家农商行）均实现归母净利润同比正增 长，其中7家银行实现营业收入与归母净利润"双增"。 城商行业绩增长势头较为强劲。2025年，杭州银行以12.05%的归母净利润同比增速位居前列；宁波银 行实现归母净利润293.33亿元，同比增长8.13%；南京银行实现归母净利润218.07亿元，同比增长 8.08%。股份行中，2025年，浦发银行实现归母净利润500.17亿元，同比增长10.52%，增速较为突出； 中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行在面临多重挑战的经营环境下，归母净利润分别实现了2.98%、 1.21%、0.34%的增长。 在盈利向好的同时，8家银行资产规模保持稳健有序扩张。股份行资产规模进一步增长，截至2025年 末，招商银行总资产突破13万亿元，兴业银行总资产站上11万亿元，中信银行与浦发银行也双双迈入10 万亿元总资产行列。城农商行的资产扩张速度更为明显，截至2025年末，南京银行、宁波银行总资产较 上年末分别增长16.63%、16.11%，杭州银行也实现了11.96%的资产增长。 值得注意的是，已披露业绩快报的 ...

● 本报记者 吴杨 截至1月26日中国证券报记者发稿时，招商银行、浦发银行、中信银行、杭州银行等8家银行披露了业绩 快报。数据显示，2025年这些银行整体保持稳健发展态势，营业收入与归母净利润普遍实现正增长，资 产质量核心指标稳中向好。 规模有序扩张 已披露2025年业绩快报的8家银行（4家股份行、3家城商行、1家农商行）均实现归母净利润同比正增 长，其中7家银行实现营业收入与归母净利润"双增"。 城商行业绩增长势头较为强劲。2025年，杭州银行以12.05%的归母净利润同比增速位居前列；宁波银 行实现归母净利润293.33亿元，同比增长8.13%；南京银行实现归母净利润218.07亿元，同比增长 8.08%。股份行中，2025年，浦发银行实现归母净利润500.17亿元，同比增长10.52%，增速较为突出； 中信银行、招商银行、兴业银行在面临多重挑战的经营环境下，归母净利润分别实现了2.98%、 对于拨备水平的适度回调，市场观点认为，这主要源于资产质量整体改善，部分银行得以释放拨备来支 撑利润增长。国联民生证券银行业首席分析师王先爽表示，银行通过拨备反哺利润需满足两方面条件： 一是拨备储备较为充足，二是上一期 ...

Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The banking sector continues to adjust, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, primarily due to significant net outflows from broad-based ETF index funds [2][6] - Despite the short-term pressures, the fundamental outlook for quality bank stocks is stable, and their valuations are considered oversold, indicating a potential buying opportunity [6][20] - Recommended banks include quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong regions, such as Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index fell by 2.7%, with excess returns of -2.0% and -2.3% compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices respectively [6][20] - Significant net outflows from the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETFs amounted to 238 billion and 36.1 billion respectively, indicating a worsening trend in fund outflows [6][20] Individual Bank Performance - Some smaller banks, like Qingdao Bank, showed positive performance due to favorable fundamental expectations, while larger state-owned banks lagged [2][6] - Eight banks reported Q4 earnings, with most showing revenue growth exceeding expectations, driven by stabilized net interest margins and increased interest income [8] Market Trends - There is a growing interest in the recovery potential of oversold bank stocks, as evidenced by a slight net inflow into bank-related index funds after a period of outflows [26] - The average turnover rate for bank stocks has increased, but the transaction volume share for various bank types, excluding joint-stock banks, has decreased [45][49] Convertible Bonds - The space for strong redemption of convertible bonds in the banking sector has expanded, with current stock prices approaching redemption thresholds [43] - Notable banks for potential convertible bond trading opportunities include Changshu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which have stable performance expectations [43]