Market Overview - As of 13:59 today, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3424.00 points, below the five-day moving average, with a decline of 0.71% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 12836.21 billion [1] Stocks Breaking the Five-Day Moving Average - A total of 319 A-shares have broken above the five-day moving average today [1] - The stocks with the largest deviation rates include: - Maiwei Biological with a deviation rate of 12.67%, closing at 28.62 yuan, up 20.00% [2] - Zhuyou Group with a deviation rate of 7.86%, closing at 11.28 yuan, up 10.05% [2] - Zhongfu Industrial with a deviation rate of 7.33%, closing at 4.48 yuan, up 9.80% [2] - Other notable stocks with smaller deviation rates include: - Dongxing Medical, Haipu Rui, and Laobaixing, which have just crossed the five-day moving average [1] Detailed Stock Performance - The following stocks have notable performance metrics: - Jiayou International: 9.97% increase, 10.81 yuan latest price, 7.22% deviation [2] - Jinjing Pharmaceutical: 10.39% increase, 17.00 yuan latest price, 6.70% deviation [2] - Xin Henghui: 12.94% increase, 53.07 yuan latest price, 6.17% deviation [2] - Additional stocks with significant trading activity include: - Hasa Lian: 9.97% increase, 14.45 yuan latest price, 5.89% deviation [2] - Huayang New Materials: 9.97% increase, 6.84 yuan latest price, 5.85% deviation [2]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance, with electrical alloy hitting the 20% limit up, and stocks like Northern Copper, Zhongfu Industry, and Jinchengxin all rising over 5% [1] - Major companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Shenhuo Co. also experienced significant stock price increases [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025, driven by tightening supply outside the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The global copper market is facing a structural imbalance in supply and demand, with processing fees for copper concentrate declining and some smelters reducing output due to cost pressures [3] - The demand for copper is being supported by the transition to renewable energy and digitalization, with a surge in data center construction expected to significantly increase copper consumption [3] - Supply-side tensions are unlikely to ease in the short term, with traditional copper-producing countries like Chile and Peru facing rising production costs and slower-than-expected new capacity additions [3] Group 3 - There has been a noticeable shift in trade flows, with commodity traders rerouting copper originally destined for Asia to the U.S., leading to supply shortages in non-U.S. regions [3] - The London Metal Exchange's inventory has significantly decreased, with available stocks dropping to historical lows [3] - The recycled copper market is also under pressure, as price fluctuations affect the collection of scrap copper, leading to a temporary contraction in recycled copper supply [3] Group 4 - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper are well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices due to their advantages in capacity release and cost control [3] - Companies in niche sectors, such as electrical alloys, are also experiencing growth opportunities [3] - The technical outlook shows that Shanghai copper futures have stabilized above 80,000 yuan, reflecting market concerns over short-term supply tightness [3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 黄金概念板块短线拉升，莱绅通灵（603900）涨停，曼卡龙（300945）、明牌珠宝（002574）、晓程科 技（300139）、株冶集团（600961）、迪阿股份（301177）等纷纷走高。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring investment opportunities in strategic metals such as rare earths, especially following significant price increases in overseas markets due to China's export controls [8][13]. - In the steel sector, there has been a notable increase in rebar consumption and a slight rise in overall steel prices, indicating a positive trend in demand [14][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints: Focus on Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of rare earth metals, particularly in light of recent U.S.-China trade discussions that aim to reduce tariffs, which could enhance global economic recovery [8][13]. - Following China's export restrictions on heavy rare earths, overseas prices have surged, with dysprosium and terbium prices in Europe increasing nearly threefold [8][13]. 2. Steel Sector: Price Trends - Rebar consumption has risen significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.6 million tons, marking a 21.69% increase week-on-week [14][18]. - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.92%, with hot-rolled coil prices rising to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 1.40% increase, and cold-rolled prices at 3,767 CNY/ton, a 1.31% increase [14][38]. 3. New Energy Metals: Supply and Price Declines - Lithium production in April 2025 was reported at 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but with a slight month-on-month decline [15][42]. - Nickel production has seen a significant year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, while cobalt prices have shown a downward trend [15][44]. 4. Industrial Metals: Copper and Aluminum - Copper smelting fees have slightly increased, with the LME aluminum price settling at 2,474 USD/ton, reflecting a minor week-on-week rise of 0.20% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to increased profitability for producers [16][28]. 5. Precious Metals: Market Adjustments - Gold prices have experienced a notable decline of 3.72% week-on-week, attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following positive developments in U.S.-China relations [17].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., Ltd. has successfully transformed from a single smelting enterprise to a comprehensive industry leader through a significant asset restructuring, enhancing its core competitiveness and revitalizing the company [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Restructuring and Industry Position - The company initiated a major asset restructuring at the end of 2022, acquiring 100% of Shuikoushan Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., which provided it with lead and zinc mining resources [1][2]. - The company now possesses mining rights for Shuikoushan lead-zinc mine and Baifang copper mine, with an annual raw ore selection capacity of 860,000 tons [1]. - In zinc smelting, the company has an annual capacity of 300,000 tons for zinc smelting and 380,000 tons for zinc alloy deep processing, ranking among the top in the country [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 19.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, and a net profit of 730 million yuan, up 29.71% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 4.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.50%, and a net profit of 283 million yuan, up 112.94% [2]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Product Development - The company plans to leverage the rising international gold prices, projecting a gold production of over 3,710 kilograms and sales exceeding 4,074 kilograms in 2024 [2]. - The company aims to enhance its full-chain advantages in mining, smelting, deep processing, and sales to achieve high-quality development [2]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - The company is investing in smart and automated mining technologies to improve efficiency and safety, while also utilizing IoT sensors for real-time monitoring [3]. - In smelting, the company maintains industry-leading process levels, producing zinc ingots with a purity of 99.995% and low impurity content [4]. Group 5: Synergistic Effects and Cost Management - The restructuring has released synergistic effects that are key to the company's performance growth, with improved raw material self-sufficiency and reduced smelting costs due to falling coal prices and optimized power supply [5].

Summary of the Conference Call for 中冶集团 Industry and Company Overview - 中冶集团 focuses on non-ferrous metal smelting, primarily producing zinc ingots, lead ingots, zinc alloys, gold, silver, and by-products like sulfur and sulfuric acid. The company has a smelting capacity of 680,000 tons and an annual lead production capacity of 100,000 tons, contributing to stable revenue [2][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Gold and Silver Production**: The company produces 1.8 to 2 tons of gold and 60 tons of silver annually, with precious metals accounting for approximately 49% of the gross profit [2][4][6] - **Resource Quality and Future Production**: 中冶集团 owns high-quality mineral resources, with an ore production scale of 860,000 tons, including over 40,000 tons of lead-zinc metal, 1.8 to 2 tons of gold, and 60 tons of silver. Full production is expected by 2025 and will be maintained through 2027 [2][7] - **Profitability from Processing Fees**: The company anticipates an increase in gross profit by 200 to 300 million yuan in 2025 due to rising zinc processing fees, which are expected to reach around 2,600 yuan per ton [2][8] - **Financial Health and Profit Forecast**: By the end of 2024, the company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to drop to 50.8%, with a total asset turnover rate superior to peers. The net profit forecast for the next three years is 1.1 billion yuan, 1.22 billion yuan, and 1.33 billion yuan, with growth rates of 40%, 11%, and 9% respectively [2][5][11][15] - **Valuation Assessment**: The reasonable valuation range for the company is estimated between 15.4 yuan and 18.5 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 15 to 18, indicating significant upside potential compared to the current stock price [2][17] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Geopolitical Factors**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to drive funds towards safe-haven assets, positively influencing gold prices and thereby enhancing the company's gold business gross profit [2][12] - **Sulfuric Acid Business Outlook**: The price of sulfuric acid, a by-product of smelting, is expected to rise significantly in 2025, with an average price projected around 500 yuan per ton, contributing an additional 50 million yuan to gross profit [2][13] - **Small Metals Contribution**: The company recovers small metals like platinum, indium, and bismuth during production, contributing stable gross profits of approximately 150 to 200 million yuan annually [2][14] - **Potential Asset Injection**: There is a possibility of asset injection from the controlling shareholder, 中国五矿, which could significantly increase the company's lead-zinc and gold production, further boosting net profit [2][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., Ltd. has achieved an upgrade to an A-level ESG rating for 2024, reflecting its commitment to sustainable development and competitive strength in the industry [1][3]. Group Level Summary - In 2024, the company participated in drafting one national standard and seven industry standards, with its contributions recognized by awards for excellence in technical standards [2]. - The total investment in environmental protection exceeded 123 million yuan in 2024 [2]. Subsidiary Level Summary - Zhuzhou Smelter's subsidiary, Hunan Zhuzhou Nonferrous Metals Co., has reduced its slag generation and coal consumption, achieving a decrease in carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion from 36.02% in 2023 to 35.18% in 2024 [3]. - Another subsidiary, Hunan Zhuzhou Torch New Materials Co., has increased its use of green electricity, generating 2.743 million kWh from rooftop solar power and purchasing 17 million kWh of green certificates to offset carbon emissions [3]. Market Position and Recognition - The company’s products, including lead, zinc, silver, and gold, have gained certification from international metal exchanges, enhancing their competitiveness in the global market [3]. - The upgrade to an A-level ESG rating is seen as recognition of the company's efforts in energy reduction, green production technologies, and social responsibility [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to influence market dynamics positively [8][14]. - The steel sector has experienced a three-year adjustment period, leading to a favorable cost-performance ratio at current levels. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks, with domestic demand pricing becoming more relevant due to high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The average price for rebar is 3,296 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8% [15][18][37]. - The overall steel price index has seen a minor decline of 0.71%, with cold-rolled steel prices dropping by 1.33% [37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fee has deepened into negative territory, with a reported fee of -43.5 USD per thousand tons, indicating a challenging environment for copper producers [17]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. The COMEX gold price reached 3,329.1 USD per ounce, a 2.52% increase week-on-week [17]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in March 2025 reached 71,260 tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.53%. The price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 65,700 CNY per ton [16][41].