Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes that expanding consumer demand is more effective than capacity reduction policies in addressing low inflation, as service prices have dropped to historical lows, which is the core issue of the current price cycle [1][10] - If consumption policies are strengthened, service prices could rise by 2 percentage points, leading to a GDP deflator increase from -0.7% to +0.39%, which would be more beneficial than the effects of capacity reduction [1][10] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current price pressure is primarily demand-driven, with the second industry contributing only 48% to the current low inflation, significantly lower than previous years [1][10] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the introduction of buying and selling government bonds as a new monetary policy tool in China, aimed at managing interest rate risks amid a declining yield environment [2][12] - It highlights that the People's Bank of China has primarily focused on buying government bonds to release liquidity, given the current low inflation environment [2][12] - The effectiveness of these operations will depend on the central bank's ability to provide clear forward guidance to shape market expectations [2][12] Company Analysis: Zhengfan Convertible Bonds - Zhengfan Convertible Bonds are expected to list at a price between 115.63 and 128.82 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0048% [3][15] - The bonds have a solid debt protection feature, with a conversion premium rate of approximately 25% anticipated on the first day of listing [3][15] - Zhengfan Technology has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.10% from 2019 to 2023, and a revenue of 38.35 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 41.78% year-on-year increase [3][15] Company Analysis: Kelun-Botai - Kelun-Botai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.3 billion yuan, a 25.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 12.74 billion yuan, up 67.8% [5][16] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in multiple products as they commercialize, with significant clinical data supporting their efficacy [5][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 17.8 billion and 35.6 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected revenue of 58.9 billion yuan in 2027 [5][16] Company Analysis: China National Materials - China National Materials reported a total revenue of 461.27 billion yuan for 2024, a 0.7% increase, and a net profit of 29.83 billion yuan, up 2.3% [6][19] - The company has shown resilience in its Q4 performance, with overseas engineering and operation maintenance businesses performing well [6][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][19]

Group 1: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - The probability of capacity reduction in the pig farming industry is high, with recovery difficulties greater than in previous cycles, indicating that the pig cycle is likely to return to normal gradually [2] - The overall output of large-scale pig enterprises is expected to increase year-on-year in 2025, while the industry may re-enter a loss state due to strong supply and weak demand for pig prices [2] - The pig farming sector is currently undervalued, with significant upside potential in stock valuations as many stocks are at historical low valuation ranges [2] Group 2: Light Textile Industry - The company, Shifeng Culture, is expected to turn a profit in 2024, with its toy business accounting for over 90% of revenue from 2018 to 2023 [3] - The integration of AI and IP in product development is leading the industry trend, with successful launches of AI toys that meet various functional needs [3] - The company plans to expand its market presence through diversified strategies and aims to enter overseas markets, projecting significant growth in net profit from 0.1 billion to 1.0 billion from 2024 to 2026 [3] Group 3: Healthcare Industry - The company, Weijian Medical, is actively responding to a crisis by enhancing its internal controls and implementing a traceability project for its sanitary products [5] - The brand, Nais Princess, has gained market recognition and improved rankings on e-commerce platforms due to its product quality and clean production environment [5] - The company aims to enhance product quality and innovation in its core product lines, focusing on consumer trust and product storytelling [5][27] Group 4: Human Resources Industry - Beijing Renli is embracing AI technology to drive digital transformation in the human resources sector, establishing a joint venture to focus on AI applications [9][30] - The company is developing a dual technology path to enhance operational efficiency and risk management through AI integration [30] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 8.3 billion, 9.5 billion, and 10.4 billion respectively [9][32] Group 5: Energy Industry - Kunlun Energy reported a revenue of 1870.46 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [33] - The company achieved a natural gas sales volume of 541.70 billion cubic meters, up 9.9% year-on-year, outperforming industry growth [33] - The LNG plant's operational efficiency has improved, with 13 plants achieving profitability, indicating a positive trend in the energy sector [35]

国内水泥资本开支承压拖累需求，下调公司未来收入增速，预计25-27 年归母净利润31.3/32.0/32.5 亿（前值32.5/33.8/-，下调3.6%/5.5%/-），可比公司25 年Wind 一致预期平均9xPE，公司业务转型有序 推进，运维服务快速增长，未来商业模式、经营可持续性有望优于可比，给予公司25 年11xPE，目标价 13.04 元（前值13.52 元，25 年11xPE），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：装备制造市占率提升不及预期，水泥生产线及矿山运维增量不及预期，水泥行业投资显 著下滑。 境内绿色安全要求驱动矿山运维高增，装备出海对冲境内需求压力公司24 年境内/外分别实现收入 236/223 亿，同比-7.2%/+10.9%；毛利率16.0%/23.0%，同比-1.82/+1.82pct，综合毛利率同比+0.2pct 至 19.6%。24年新签订单634 亿，同比+3%，工程/装备/运维新签同比-5%/-3%/+27%，运维服务中矿山/水 泥及其他同比+36%/15%。境内新签同比-4%，工程/装备/运维同比-20%/-31%/+32%；境外新签同比 +9%，占比57%，工程/装备/运维 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专业工程 中材国际（600970） 2024 年年报点评：经营逆势保持平稳，结构 转型亮点显现 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 45799 | 46127 | 48647 | 52123 | 55610 | | 同比（%） | 6.94 | 0.72 | 5.46 | 7.15 | 6.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2916 | 2983 | 3194 | 3517 | 3818 | | 同比（%） | 14.74 | 2.31 | 7.06 | 10.13 | 8.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.10 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.33 | 1.44 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 9.12 | 8.92 | 8.33 | 7.56 | 6.97 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 ...

Group 1 - Company closed at 9.95 yuan, down 1.19%, with a rolling PE ratio of 8.81 times and a total market value of 26.288 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the engineering construction industry is 16.45 times, with a median of 18.90 times, placing the company at 33rd position in the industry ranking [1] - As of February 28, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 55,251, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average holding quantity of 27,600 shares [1] Group 2 - For the latest fiscal year, the company reported operating revenue of 46.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, and a net profit of 2.983 billion yuan, up 2.31%, with a gross profit margin of 19.63% [2] - The company's PE (TTM) is 8.81, with a static PE of 8.81 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24 [2] - The company has five national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprises and twelve provincial-level "specialized and innovative" enterprises [1]

中材国际（600970） 2024 年年报点评：经营逆势保持平稳，结构 转型亮点显现 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 45799 | 46127 | 48647 | 52123 | 55610 | | 同比（%） | 6.94 | 0.72 | 5.46 | 7.15 | 6.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2916 | 2983 | 3194 | 3517 | 3818 | | 同比（%） | 14.74 | 2.31 | 7.06 | 10.13 | 8.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.10 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.33 | 1.44 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 9.12 | 8.92 | 8.33 | 7.56 | 6.97 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 03 月 26 日 证券分析师 黄诗 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.15 CNY, based on a 12x PE for 2025 [6][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 46.13 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.72%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.98 billion CNY, up 2.31% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.189 billion CNY, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 39.85% and a dividend yield of 4.47% [1]. - The company is focusing on overseas growth, with a significant increase in international orders and a strategy to enhance its operational services and equipment manufacturing [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 271 billion CNY from engineering services, 62 billion CNY from high-end equipment manufacturing, and 129 billion CNY from operational services, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 1.73%, -18.42%, and 21.88% [2]. - The gross profit margin for the company in 2024 is reported at 19.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin stands at 6.99%, up 0.03 percentage points [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the year was 2.29 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.5 billion CNY year-on-year [4]. Business Segmentation - The mining operation services segment generated 7.9 billion CNY in revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.89%, while the cement and other operational services segment achieved 5.02 billion CNY, also up 21.88% [2]. - The company has executed 318 mining operation service projects, with a domestic market share of 21% in cement supply mining [2][3]. Market Position and Outlook - The company’s overseas revenue from equipment manufacturing has increased to 36%, and revenue from non-industry sectors has risen to 37% [2]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company’s operational and equipment business as it expands internationally, particularly in regions like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia [2][3].

中材国际(600970)：经营整体稳健 海外增长保持较 强韧性 风险提示：水泥行业景气下行超预期、海外业务拓展不及预期、运维和装备业务发展不及预期、汇率波 动风险。 2024 年境内、境外分别实现收入236、223 亿，同比分别-7.24%、+10.85%，境内、外毛利率分别为 15.97%、23.07%，同比-1.82pct、+1.87pct。新签订单方面，2024 年公司新签合同额634.44 亿，同比增 长3%，订单收入保障倍数为1.38 倍，境外、境内分别新签362、272 亿，同比+9%、-4%，我们认为随 着境外项目占比提升，毛利率有望改善。参股公司中材水泥境外布局加快落地，突尼斯项目完成签约， 24 年公司境外员工人数同比增长19%。 业绩稳健，高分红凸显中长期投资价值 毛、净利率小幅回升，费用率未能有效摊薄 公司2024 年实现营业收入461.3 亿，同比+0.72%，归母、扣非净利润为29.8、27.2 亿，同比+2.31%、 +1.64%，非经常性损益为2.62 亿，同比增加0.23 亿，其中包含应收账款减值准备转回1.09 亿；Q4 单季 实现收入144亿，同比+0.75%，归母、扣非净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.15 CNY, based on a 12x PE for 2025 [6][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 46.13 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.72%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.98 billion CNY, up 2.31% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.189 billion CNY in 2024, with a cash dividend ratio of 39.85% and a dividend yield of 4.47% [1]. - The report highlights the resilience of overseas growth and the overall stability of operations, despite challenges in the domestic cement industry [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 46.13 billion CNY, with a net profit of 2.98 billion CNY, and a non-recurring profit of 262 million CNY [1][5]. - The company’s revenue from engineering technology services, high-end equipment manufacturing, and production operation services was 27.1 billion CNY, 6.2 billion CNY, and 12.9 billion CNY respectively, with varying growth rates [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is reported at 19.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 6.99%, up 0.03 percentage points [4][5]. Business Segmentation - The company’s mining operation services generated 7.9 billion CNY in revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.89%, with a gross margin of 17.56% [2]. - The company has executed 318 mining operation service projects, with a domestic market share of 21% in cement supply mining [2][3]. - The overseas revenue from equipment manufacturing has increased to 36%, indicating a successful implementation of the "Two Outs and One Service" strategy [2]. Order and Revenue Growth - In 2024, the company achieved domestic and overseas revenues of 23.6 billion CNY and 22.3 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.24% and +10.85% [3]. - The new contract signing amount for 2024 was 63.44 billion CNY, a 3% increase year-on-year, with a backlog revenue coverage ratio of 1.38 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a transformation in operation and maintenance services accelerating [1] - The overseas business shows steady growth in revenue and profitability, with an overall gross margin increase [2] - The operation and maintenance business is experiencing significant growth, contributing positively to the company's overall business model [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is attractive at 5.3%, with a substantial increase in the dividend payout ratio [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 461 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.8 billion, up 2.3% [1] - The gross margin for the year was 19.63%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to improved profitability in overseas operations [2] - The operation and maintenance segment signed new contracts worth 173 billion, a 27% increase, with significant contributions from mining and cement operations [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 32 billion, 35 billion, and 38 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.22, 1.33, and 1.42 [4][5]