看好 ——政治局会议点评 建筑装饰 2025 年 04 月 27 日 "两重"建设与城市更新行动有望加快发力 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 事件： ⚫ 2025 年 4 月 25 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，会议指出：我国经济持续回升向好的 基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大。要强化底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做 好经济工作。统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 大高水平对外开放。加大资金支持力度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两 重"建设。加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。 点评： 行 业 及 产 业 表 1：建筑行业重点公司估值表 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 收盘价（元/股） | | EPS（元/股） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Views - The company reported a 31% year-on-year increase in new contracts signed in Q1 2025, with overseas contracts showing strong growth of 46% [5] - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 10.147 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.37% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 4.19% to 663 million yuan [4] - The gross profit margin decreased to 17.0%, down 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved slightly to 6.99% [5] Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of 48.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 50.4 billion yuan in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 5.61% and 3.41% respectively [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.12 billion yuan, increasing to 3.31 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.9X and 7.4X [6] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 629 billion yuan in 2025 to 664 billion yuan in 2026 [10] Key Financial Ratios - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 61.3% [3] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 1.18 yuan, increasing to 1.25 yuan in 2026 [10] - The projected P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 1.06 in 2025 to 0.98 in 2026 [10]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 事件： 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 板块看，24年公司工程技术服务/运维/装备实现营收271.2/129.2/62.1亿元，同比+1.7%/+21.9%/-18.4%，毛 利率分别为16.0%/21.5%/22.8%，同比+0.24/-0.31/-1.18pcts。公司工程服务业务稳步推进，境外工程技术 服务量增利升；工程与装备业务协同机制成效明显，自研十类核心主机装备自给率超过67%，境外及装备 外收入占比提升至36%及37%；公司以工程带动运维发展，运维业务持续高景气，24年矿山运维实现营收 79亿元，同比+21.9%，毛利率17.6%，同比+2.08pcts；水泥及其他运维服务实现营收50亿元，同比 +21.9%，毛利率27.6%，同比-4.08p ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Views - The company reported a 31% year-on-year increase in new contracts signed in Q1 2025, with overseas contracts showing strong growth of 46% [5] - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 10.147 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.37% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 4.19% to 663 million yuan [4] - The gross profit margin decreased to 17.0%, down 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved slightly to 6.99% [5] Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of 48.7 billion yuan and 50.4 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 5.61% and 3.41% [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 3.12 billion yuan and 3.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.41% and 6.42% [6] - The company's PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are estimated to be 7.9X and 7.4X, respectively [6] Key Financial Metrics - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 58.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 70.1 billion yuan in 2027 [10] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 61.3% in 2024 to 57.9% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline slightly from 14.1% in 2024 to 12.6% in 2027 [10]

Core Insights - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 46.13 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.98 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit, with total revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 660 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 600 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of -1.4%, 4.2%, and -8.4% respectively [1] New Contracts and Business Performance - The company saw a significant increase in new contracts due to strong overseas demand, with new contract value for 2024 reaching 63.44 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, driven by a 9% increase in overseas contracts [2] - In Q1 2025, new contracts surged by 31% year-on-year to 27.88 billion yuan, with overseas contracts increasing by 46% and domestic contracts by 1% [2] - The operational performance in the maintenance segment remained robust, with new contracts in mining maintenance and cement maintenance growing by 36% and 15% respectively in 2024 [2] Revenue and Profit Margins - For 2024, the company reported domestic and overseas revenues of 23.65 billion yuan and 22.27 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.2% and +10.9% [3] - The gross margin for the maintenance business was 21.5%, while the engineering services segment achieved a gross margin of 16.0% [3] - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin decreased to 17.0%, while the net margin remained stable at 7.0% [4] Financial Metrics and Cash Flow - The company’s financial metrics showed a decrease in financial expense ratio in Q1 2025, contributing to a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - Operating cash flow turned negative in Q1 2025, with a net outflow of 1.87 billion yuan, compared to a net inflow of 2.29 billion yuan in the previous year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 3.26 billion yuan and 3.40 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 3.52 billion yuan [5] - Despite the challenges in the domestic cement market, the company maintains a "buy" rating due to strong overseas demand and growth in the maintenance business [5]

Group 1: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Public funds in Q1 2025 are focusing on AI hard technology (electronics) and robotics (automobiles), with the highest historical holdings in these sectors at 18.74% and 7.82% respectively [3] - The stock allocation of actively managed equity funds in Q1 2025 is 84.01%, up from 83.13% in Q4 2024, with total equity assets around 2.96 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.52% increase [3] - Key recommended stocks include major players in the home appliance sector such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, as well as in the small appliance sector like Ecovacs and Xiaomi [4] Group 2: Company Performance Insights - Sailyus (601127) reported a revenue of 145.18 billion yuan in 2024, a 305.04% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.946 billion yuan, marking four consecutive quarters of profitability [5] - The company is collaborating deeply with Huawei to enhance its intelligent driving capabilities, with the AITO brand expected to launch new models in the 350,000 to 450,000 yuan price range [5] - Electric technology company (300679) achieved revenues of 4.661 billion yuan and 1.196 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 48.97% and 15.02% respectively [12] Group 3: Market Trends and Projections - The home appliance industry is experiencing a boost in sales due to government policies promoting offline retail, with significant growth in exports of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [4] - The small appliance sector, particularly cleaning devices, saw impressive growth in Q1 2025, with online sales of vacuum cleaners increasing by 63% year-on-year [4] - The overall market for integrated stoves is under pressure due to the real estate sector's downturn, with a reported 30.6% decline in retail sales in 2024 [25] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Valuations - The target market capitalization for Sailyus is projected at 273.92 billion yuan, with a target price of 167.70 yuan per share based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.957 billion yuan, 12.40 billion yuan, and 14.40 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [12] - The overall market performance of the home appliance sector shows a PE ratio of 18 and a PB ratio of 3.2, indicating a relatively stable valuation environment [15]

2025 年 4 月 25 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 【宏观】关税博弈下，我国制造业出海进程如何？——《海外非美经济探究》系列第 二篇 特朗普关税政策对我国制造业出海进程影响显著，出海行业逐步从劳动密集型行业过 渡到装备制造业，主要出海方向为东盟。随着中国与东盟对美出口税率差走阔，我国 企业出海空间将再次打开，对美出口依赖度较高的行业出海进程或加速，包括手机、 自动数据处理机、蓄电池、机动车零件、玩具等，看好相关行业的资本品出口增速上 行。 行业研究 【银行】震荡中前行——《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2025 年一季度）》点评(买 入) 中国银行理财登记中心发布《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2025 年一季度）》,25Q1 末理财规模较年初下降 0.8 万亿，季内规模增量随市场波动而前高后低。理财资产配 置结构整体保持稳定，拆放同业及买入返售占比较年初提升 0.8pct，债券类、存款类 资产占比分别较年初下降 0.5、0.6pct，理财杠杆率小幅下降至 106.9%。4 月理财规 模有望稳定在 30 万亿以上。 【高端制造】3 月出口延续 1 月增长态势，割草机、缝纫机数据亮眼 ——机械行业海 关 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 663 million yuan, an increase of 4.19% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 599 million yuan, a decrease of 8.38% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company signed new contracts worth 27.881 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%. Domestic new contracts amounted to 7.020 billion yuan, up 1% year-on-year, while foreign new contracts reached 20.861 billion yuan, an increase of 46% year-on-year [8]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin in Q1 2025 was 16.97%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio improved significantly, with a total expense ratio of 8.80%, down 2.43 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company's operating cash flow in Q1 2025 showed a net outflow of 1.873 billion yuan, which was an increase of 685 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the cement market [8]. - The current stock price is at a low level, providing a strong margin of safety. The company is expected to benefit from international developments and the "Belt and Road" initiative, making it worthy of further attention [8]. Financial Data Summary - For 2025, the estimated total operating revenue is 49.652 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 3.386 billion yuan [14]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 63.955 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.1% [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8][19]. Core Views - The company has maintained stable operations, with a slight decline in revenue in Q1 2025, but a year-on-year increase in net profit due to non-recurring gains [1]. - The company signed new orders worth 27.881 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%, with significant growth in engineering services and high-end equipment manufacturing [2]. - The gross margin has been under pressure, but the company has demonstrated good cost control capabilities [3]. - The company is expected to continue its overseas expansion and diversify its business, leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative and the demand for green and digital solutions in mature markets [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.15 billion, a decrease of 1.37% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 663 million, an increase of 4.2% [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17%, down 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.35 percentage points to 6.99% [3]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.12 billion, 3.32 billion, and 3.58 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7.5, and 7 [4]. Order and Market Analysis - The company’s new orders in Q1 2025 showed strong growth, particularly in overseas markets, which accounted for 74.82% of total orders [2]. - Domestic orders grew moderately by 1%, while overseas orders increased by 46% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on key regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia for new projects and operational services [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8][19]. Core Views - The company has maintained stable operations, with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit due to non-recurring gains [1]. - The company has experienced significant growth in new orders, particularly in overseas markets, indicating a continuation of high demand [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from its long-term strategy of deepening its global market presence and diversifying its business operations [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.37%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 663 million, an increase of 4.2% [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17%, down 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.35 percentage points to 6.99% [3]. - The company signed new orders worth 27.88 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [2]. Order Growth - The company’s new orders in Q1 2025 included 20.84 billion from engineering services, 2.88 billion from high-end equipment manufacturing, and 3.78 billion from operational services, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 65%, and a decline of 16% [2]. - Overseas orders accounted for 74.82% of total new orders, with a year-on-year growth of 46%, highlighting the company's strong international presence [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.32 billion, and 3.58 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8, 7.5, and 7 times [4]. - The company plans to leverage the Belt and Road Initiative and focus on emerging markets for urbanization and industrialization needs, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia [4].