Core Viewpoint - The coal chemical sector experienced a decline, with a drop of 1.0% overall, indicating a negative trend in the industry [1] Company Performance - Antai Group saw a significant decrease of 7.03% in its stock price [1] - Baotailong's stock fell by 6.82% [1] - Zhongmei Energy experienced a decline of 5.26% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining, Liuguo Chemical, and Huaibei Mining all dropped over 3% [1]

Group 1 - The coal chemical sector experienced a decline, falling by 1.0% [1] - Among the companies, Antai Group saw the largest drop at 7.03% [1] - Baotailong and Zhongmei Energy also faced significant declines, with drops of 6.82% and 5.26% respectively [1] - Other companies such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Liuguo Chemical, and Huaibei Mining all fell by over 3% [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that stricter safety regulations and supply constraints are expected to drive coal prices higher, particularly in the context of the upcoming winter heating season [3]. - It notes significant increases in spot prices for thermal coal, with prices for Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port rising by 36, 41, and 39 RMB/ton respectively [3]. - The report emphasizes the expected continued upward momentum in thermal coal prices due to seasonal demand and tightening supply [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The report discusses various projects, including a major energy logistics project in Xinjiang with a total investment of 2.56 billion RMB, aimed at enhancing energy security [4]. - It mentions the construction of a coal-to-natural gas project in Northeast China, which is expected to convert 7.5 million tons of low-quality coal into 1.33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [8]. Price Movements - Thermal coal prices have seen significant increases, with various regions reporting price hikes, such as a 20 RMB/ton increase in Datong and a 40 RMB/ton increase in Yulin [9]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported at 1485 RMB/ton in Shanxi [12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a decrease in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, with an average of 1.4914 million tons, down 15.46% week-on-week [20]. - Conversely, coal outflow from the same ports increased by 24.93%, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [20]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen significantly, with average freight rates reported at 43.05 RMB/ton, an increase of 28.96% [27]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts [32]. - For instance, China Shenhua's stock price is reported at 41.90 RMB with a market cap of 832.5 billion RMB and an EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024 [32].

Core Viewpoint - Huabei Mining's stock price has shown a positive trend recently, with a year-to-date increase of 2.33% and significant gains over various trading periods, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Company Overview - Huabei Mining Co., Ltd. is located in Huabei City, Anhui Province, and was established on March 18, 1999. It was listed on April 28, 2004. The company primarily engages in the sale of civil explosive products and blasting engineering services, as well as coal mining, washing, processing, and sales, and the production and sales of coal chemical products [1]. - The revenue composition of Huabei Mining includes: commodity trading (39.15%), coal products (26.23%), coal chemical products (20.81%), engineering and labor services (3.55%), blending business (2.55%), electricity sales (1.99%), others (1.96%), blasting engineering services (1.23%), mining business (1.21%), civil explosive product sales (0.81%), and transportation services (0.51%) [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, Huabei Mining had 45,300 shareholders, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous period, with an average of 59,430 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.52% [2]. - For the first half of 2025, Huabei Mining reported operating revenue of 20.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion yuan, down 64.85% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Huabei Mining has distributed a total of 13.156 billion yuan in dividends. In the last three years, the cumulative dividend payout was 7.318 billion yuan [3]. Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder of Huabei Mining is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 28.4545 million shares, a decrease of 3.9644 million shares from the previous period. The third-largest shareholder, Low Volatility Dividend (512890), increased its holdings by 4.5292 million shares to 27.5317 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to rebound and stabilize above the long-term contract price of around 700 CNY per ton, with a potential target of 750 CNY per ton in 2025 [6][7][16] - The report highlights that the coal market is experiencing a significant price increase, with thermal coal prices rising to 748 CNY per ton as of October 17, 2025, marking a 6.1% increase from the previous period [6][20] - The investment logic is based on two main aspects: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, suggesting that the coal sector is at a favorable entry point for investment [8][17] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-driven commodity, with prices expected to recover to long-term contract levels due to the dual-track pricing mechanism [7][16] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [7][16] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 4.17% in the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.39 percentage points [11][28] - Major coal companies showed significant price increases, with the top performers being Dayou Energy (+53.13%), Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (+15.93%), and China Coal Energy (+11.68%) [11][28] Price Indicators - As of October 17, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price was 748 CNY per ton, reflecting a 6.1% increase [20] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port reached 1710 CNY per ton, up from 1630 CNY, indicating a 4.91% increase [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for coal stock selection: cyclical logic (e.g., Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal), dividend logic (e.g., China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy), diversified aluminum elasticity (e.g., Shenhua Holdings), and growth logic (e.g., Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy) [8][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Views - The coal price at northern ports has significantly increased due to limited supply from railway maintenance and temperature differences between northern and southern regions, with the price reaching 748 RMB/ton on October 17, up 39 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][13] - The supply side remains constrained, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increasing slightly, while demand from coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends [4][13] - The overall market sentiment is supported by high cash flow and profitability of leading coal companies, with a focus on maintaining a strong dividend yield [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal at northern ports has risen significantly, with specific increases in pit prices in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [4][14] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region has increased by 0.31 percentage points, while coal supply remains tight due to railway maintenance [4][19] - Coastal power plants' daily consumption has increased, while inland power plants have seen a decrease [4][22] 2. Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal has increased by 2.05 percentage points, with some recovery in production following holiday shutdowns [5][38] - The price of main coking coal at ports has risen to 1,710 RMB/ton, up 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][39] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises have decreased, indicating a tightening supply [5][46] 3. Coke - The supply side for coke has tightened, with production rates declining slightly due to cost pressures and maintenance [6][49] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, reflecting challenges in the market [6][54] - Coke inventories at independent coking plants have decreased, indicating stable demand [6][62] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with limited supply due to production constraints in certain regions [6][66] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies with strong investment potential, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a "Buy" rating for most [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to multiple factors, including supply constraints and increased demand driven by cold winter expectations and export pressures [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity in their stock prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,954.93 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,915.57 billion yuan [2]. 2. Coal Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the port increased by 43 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 753 yuan/ton as of October 17, 2025, marking a 6.06% increase from the previous week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.52 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.13% week-on-week and a 3.93% decrease year-on-year [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to increased safety inspections and anticipated rainfall in major production areas, which may limit coal production and transportation [7][8]. - Demand is bolstered by expectations of a cold winter, leading to early stockpiling by power plants, and ongoing high demand from the steel industry [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended high-elasticity stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jinneng Holding, among others, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies' dividend policies and growth prospects, with several companies expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts [13]. 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with the report indicating that the coal price is likely to remain resilient despite seasonal trends [8]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance is expected to improve as supply-demand dynamics become more favorable [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights the tightening of safety regulations in the coal industry, which is expected to lead to a recovery in the performance of flexible stocks due to rising coal prices during the peak season [2][4][21] - In September, significant events included the strict enforcement of safety regulations in coal-producing areas and the release of a consultation draft for coking coal options [5][6] - The report notes that the domestic coal production growth rate is slowing, with a focus on the supply side and the impact of safety inspections on production capacity [10][28] Group 2 - Demand for coal is strong ahead of maintenance on the Daqin railway, with high iron and steel production during the "golden September and silver October" period [4][21] - The coal supply-demand balance indicates a potential increase in coal prices as the market adjusts to seasonal demand fluctuations [22][20] - The report anticipates that the seasonal adjustment of railway freight rates will enhance the economic viability of coal production areas and increase price volatility [16][14] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal production and sales trends, indicating that coal production in major regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is stabilizing, while overall production is concentrated among a few large companies [33][41] - The coal import volume has decreased significantly, with a notable decline in imports from Indonesia and Mongolia, reflecting broader market trends [46][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices and production levels, particularly in light of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [39][42]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that China's coal production is increasing, but coal imports are declining, with expectations of limited production growth in Q4 2025 due to stricter regulations [1][2]. Supply Side - National raw coal production from January to August 2025 reached 3.165 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1]. - Coal imports from January to September 2025 totaled 350 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% [1]. Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the average spot price for 5500 kcal thermal coal was approximately 673 RMB/ton, down 20.66% year-on-year from 848 RMB/ton in Q3 2024, but up 6.75% from 630 RMB/ton in Q2 2025 [2]. - The average price for Shanxi coking coal at the Jing Tang port in Q3 2025 was 1564 RMB/ton, down 17.23% year-on-year but up 19.09% from Q2 2025 [2]. Company Performance - Companies exceeding performance expectations include China Shenhua (EPS 1.97, YOY -15.01%), Shaanxi Coal (EPS 1.29, YOY -21.46%), and Shanxi Coal International (EPS 0.64, YOY -38.99%) [3]. - Companies meeting expectations include China Coal Energy (EPS 0.89, YOY -18.92%) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (EPS 0.70, YOY -48.67%) [4]. - Shaanxi Black Cat underperformed with an EPS of -0.32, YOY -3.82% due to pressure on coking coal prices [4]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include undervalued elastic stocks such as Shanxi Coal (000983.SZ) and Huabei Mining (600985.SH) [5]. - Stable high-dividend stocks recommended include China Shenhua (601088.SH) and Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) [5]. - Additional focus on elastic stocks in thermal coal such as Jinkong Coal Industry (601001.SH) and Huayang Co. (600348.SH) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [32]. Core Insights - Domestic raw coal production increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 3.165 billion tons from January to August 2025, while coal imports fell by 11.1% year-on-year to 35 million tons from January to September 2025 [4][18]. - In Q3 2025, both thermal coal and coking coal prices rebounded, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports rising to approximately 673 CNY/ton, a 6.75% increase from Q2 2025, despite a 20.66% decrease year-on-year [4][23]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q3 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal achieving better-than-expected results, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining are projected to meet expectations [4][25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of coal remains tight due to production capacity checks, while demand is robust, leading to a rebound in coal prices during Q3 2025 [4][23]. - The report highlights that major coal-producing regions like Shanxi and Shaanxi have shown production increases, while Inner Mongolia experienced a slight decline [10][18]. Price Trends - The report details significant price fluctuations in coal types, with thermal coal prices showing a rebound in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, while coking coal prices also saw increases due to supply constraints [21][24]. - The average price of Shanxi's main coking coal at the port was reported at 1564 CNY/ton, reflecting a 19.09% increase from Q2 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease [24]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for key coal companies, indicating that China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 1.97 CNY, while companies like Shaanxi Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have EPS of 1.29 CNY and 0.25 CNY, respectively [25]. - The report identifies companies with strong earnings potential, recommending investments in undervalued stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Huai Bei Mining, while also suggesting stable dividend-paying stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4][25].