Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from deepening integrated operations and has potential for both growth and dividends [1][6] - The coal and coke industry has faced price declines due to weak downstream demand and increased imports, impacting the company's performance [4][5] - The company has implemented effective cost control strategies, which have helped maintain its gross margin despite market challenges [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 657.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 48.55 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year [2][10] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 90.63 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 30.45% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 1100.38 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 547.61 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% and 3.49% respectively [4][5] Production and Sales Data - The company produced 2,055.30 million tons of commodity coal and sold 1,536.69 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year changes of -6.46% and -13.82% respectively [4] - The company’s coke production was 3.55 million tons, with a sales volume of 3.52 million tons, both down approximately 6% year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 20.20 billion yuan, which is 41.60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.53, 1.90, and 1.95 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.5, 6.9, and 6.7 [8][10]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Year**: 2024 - **Key Financials**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 4.855 billion yuan, a decrease of 22% year-on-year [3] - Total coal production: 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons year-on-year [3] - Coal sales volume: 15.37 million tons, a decrease of 2.46 million tons year-on-year [3] - Ethanol production: 370,000 tons, sales volume: 360,000 tons [3] Industry Insights - **Coal Market**: - Current main coking coal price: approximately 1,510 yuan/ton, with a net profit of about 210 yuan per ton [7][8] - Power coal profit: around 100 yuan per ton, with stable long-term contract prices due to high electricity demand in Anhui province [9] - **Ethanol Market**: - Ethanol profitability was strong in August and September last year, with a profit of approximately 70 million yuan, but has since stabilized due to falling corn prices [3] - Expected ethanol profit for the year: 300 to 400 million yuan [3][16] Key Strategies and Plans - **Cost Control**: - Plans to reduce costs through automation, restoring production, and releasing low-cost capacity [5] - No new expense items expected this year, with potential reductions [5] - **Production Recovery**: - Happiness Holdings is undergoing comprehensive equipment repairs, with normal production expected to resume in Q3 [6] - Production target for Happiness Holdings: 600,000 to 1 million tons [6] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Total capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be around 6 billion yuan, focusing on projects like the Taohutu power plant [11][19] - Major projects expected to be operational by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [12] Financial Outlook - **Dividends**: - Dividend ratio is expected to decrease due to new projects and resource reserve plans, but future dividend amounts and ratios are not in jeopardy [14] - **Profitability Projections**: - Anticipated that 2025 Q2 will be the most challenging period, but market pressures are easing [8] - LNG market profits are optimistic, with a profit of approximately 1 yuan per cubic meter, totaling 253 million yuan [13] Additional Considerations - **Trade Business**: - The trading business has negatively impacted overall asset ROE, with plans to gradually divest non-essential trading operations [4] - **Future Production Goals**: - New projects expected to add nearly 17 million tons of capacity, with significant releases expected by the end of the year [17][18]

盈利预测与估值 考虑到焦煤价格趋弱，我们下调2025 年盈利41%至33.5 亿元，引入2026年盈利35 亿元，现价对应2025- 26 年P/E 为11x、10x；公司为优质主焦煤龙头，中长期增量空间明确，我们维持跑赢行业评级，考虑估 值轮动至2025 年，我们下调目标价21%至15 元，目标价对应2025-26 年P/E 为12x、11.5x，隐含13%上 行空间。 2024 年业绩低于我们及市场预期 公司公布2024 业绩：营业收入657 亿元，同比-10%，归母净利润48.6 亿元，同比-22%，加权平均ROE 为12%；4Q24 收入91 亿元，归母净利润7.2 亿元，同比-39%，环比-41%，主要系整体产品价格走弱。 点评：1、煤炭业务：产销量：2024 年商品煤产量、销量（不含内销，下同）为2,055/1,537万吨，分别 同比-6%/-14%，主要系安监趋严+信湖煤矿停产；单4Q 实现商品煤产量488 万吨，同比-7%/环比-9%， 销量349 万吨，同比-14%/环比-9%，销量走弱主要系内销动力煤增多。价格层面：2024 年全年主焦煤 长协价逐步下调，全年均价（含内销）为1,075 元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in production and sales, with chemical operations contributing to profit growth [3][5] - The coal mining segment is facing challenges with both volume and price declines, but the new Taohutu coal mine is anticipated to provide a new profit growth point by the end of 2025 [5][6] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio to 35% for the years 2025-2027, with a projected dividend yield of 5.40% for 2024 [5][6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.49% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year [5][6] - The coal production for 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 6.46% year-on-year, with sales volume down 13.82% [5][6] - The average price of coal was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 553 yuan, down 6.68% [5][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 1.80 yuan, a decrease of 26.69% year-on-year [5][6] Future Projections - The company’s projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 60.152 billion yuan, 62.960 billion yuan, and 64.518 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 3.381 billion yuan, 4.178 billion yuan, and 4.513 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.26 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.68 yuan, respectively [5][6]

项目密集投产，保底分红提升 公司发布 2024 年业绩报告。公司 2024 年营业收入 657.35 亿元，同比下降 10.40%； 归母净利润 48.55 亿元，同比减少 22.00%。2024Q4 营业收入 90.89 亿元，同比下降 49.21%；归母净利润 7.16 亿元，同比下降 38.58%。公司业绩符合预期。 证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 28 年 月 日 淮北矿业（600985.SH） 煤炭业务：受信湖煤矿停产影响，产销小幅下滑。 ➢产销方面，2024 年公司商品煤产量 2055 万吨，同比-6.5%，商品煤销量 1537 万吨， 同比-13.8%。分季度看，24Q1~Q4 产销量分别为 524 万吨/403 万吨、509 万吨/401 万吨、535 万吨/385 万吨、488 万吨/349 万吨。目前信湖矿也转入了系统恢复的新阶 段，复产在即，未来对公司煤炭产销影响预计逐步消除。 ➢利价方面，2024 年公司吨煤售价 1100 元/吨，同比-5.1%，公司吨煤成本 553 元/ 吨，同比-6.7%，公司吨煤毛利 548 元/吨，同比-3.5%。分季 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to increase the minimum dividend payout ratio to 35% for the years 2025-2027, with a proposed dividend of 0.75 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a total payout of 2.020 billion yuan [2]. - The coal production and sales volumes decreased in 2024, with a production of 20.553 million tons, down 6.5% year-on-year, and sales of 15.367 million tons, down 13.8% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 9.066 billion yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 49.2%, and a net profit of 716 million yuan, down 38.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal business's gross profit margin improved to 49.8%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in coal prices and sales [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend payout ratio of 41.6% for 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on March 27, 2025 [2]. Coal and Chemical Business - The coal chemical business saw a decline in gross profit margin to 19.34%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, with significant drops in production and sales of coke and methanol [4]. - The company has initiated production of a 600,000-ton ethanol project, which is the largest single-series production facility globally [4]. Future Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.924 billion yuan, 2.476 billion yuan, and 3.384 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 1.26 yuan [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal volume and price, with a focus on growth potential and the recovery of its net asset value [4][6] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 65.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.86 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year [4][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit from 2025 onwards, with projections of 3.37 billion yuan in 2025, 4.50 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.09 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -30.7%, +33.6%, and +13.1% respectively [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s coal production and sales volume decreased by 6.5% and 13.8% year-on-year, respectively, with Q4 production and sales down 8.7% and 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,100.4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 552.8 yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 547.6 yuan, a decline of 3.5% year-on-year [4][5] Product Performance - In 2024, the production and sales of coke and methanol also saw declines of 6% and 22.7% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average selling price of coke decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, while the price of its main raw material, washed coal, fell by 14.4% [5] Growth Potential - The company is focusing on the growth of coal mining and coal chemical projects, with significant projects underway, including the construction of a coal mine with an annual capacity of 8 million tons [4][6] - The company plans to increase its minimum dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35%, with a current dividend payout ratio of 41.6% [4][6]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 淮北矿业（600985） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业联席首席分 析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]3 月 27 日 ，淮北矿业发布 2024 年年报，2024 年全年，公 司实现营业收入 657.35 亿元，同比下降 10.43%，实现归母净利润 48.55 亿元，同比下降 22.00%；扣非后净利润 46.43 亿元，同比下降 21.19%。 经营活动现金流量净额 90.63 亿元，同比下降 30.45%；基本每股收益 1.84 元/股，同比下降 26.69%。资产负债率为 46.58%，同比下降 10.85pct，较 2023 全年下降 5.67pct。 2024 年第四季度，公司单季度营业收入 90.89 亿元， ...

公司研究 证券研究报告 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁研究助理 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 淮北矿业（600985） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业联席首席分 析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 成本管控业绩稳健，加速发展增长可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 28 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]3 月 27 日 ，淮北矿业发布 2024 年年报，2024 年全年，公 司实现营业收入 657.35 亿元，同比下降 10.4 ...

| 有） | | | | | | 差额(3)＝(2)- | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (1) | | | | 化 | | | | | | | | 甲醇综合 | | | | | | | | | | | | 否 230,000.00 | | 230,000.00 230,000.00 | | 53,709.59 | 230,070.53 | 70.53 | 100.03 | 2024 年 | 6 月 | 6,698.47 | | 不适用 | 否 | | | | | | | | | | | 利用项目 | | | | | | | | | | | | 偿还公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | 否 | | 68,063.30 68,063.30 | 68,063.30 | - | 68,063.30 | - | 100.00 | 不适用 | | 不适 | | 用 | 不适用 | 不适用 | | | | | | | | | | 债务 | | | | | | | | | | | | ...