Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial explosives industry in China is maturing, with significant increases in production capacity and output, driven by growing demand and technological advancements [2][6][10]. Industry Definition and Classification - Industrial explosives, also known as civil explosives, are explosive mixtures primarily composed of oxidizers and fuels, designed based on the principle of oxygen balance [3][4]. - Common types include ammonium nitrate explosives, emulsified explosives, and nitroglycerin explosives, characterized by low cost, simple manufacturing, and reliable application [4]. Current Development Status - The production of industrial explosives in China has increased from 3.54 million tons in 2016 to an expected 4.49 million tons in 2024, with major types including gel emulsified explosives (61.02%), porous ammonium oil explosives (23.15%), and expanded ammonium nitrate explosives (7.17%) [6][8]. - The total sales volume of industrial explosives is projected to reach 4.485 million tons in 2024, with gel emulsified explosives leading at 2.7289 million tons [8]. Industry Trends - The industry is transitioning from extensive growth to a focus on safety, environmental sustainability, and intelligence, with technological innovation and regulatory compliance as key drivers [2][10]. - Future challenges include balancing cost control with technological upgrades and exploring value-added blasting services to address environmental pressures and competition from alternative technologies [2]. Related Companies - Key listed companies in the industrial explosives sector include Yipuli (002096.SZ), Poly United (002037.SZ), Hongda Explosive (002683), and others [3]. - Other relevant companies include Beifang Special Energy, Yunnan Minexplosion, and Longye Chemical [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize at a new level, supported by a slowdown in coal production growth, particularly in high-cost regions like Xinjiang, and a decrease in coal imports [11][12] - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) between 10-20%, and dividend yields exceeding 5%, indicating strong core asset attributes [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Trends - As of May 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 613 RMB/ton, down 5 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1320 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][32] - International thermal coal prices show a mixed trend, with Newcastle thermal coal at 68.0 USD/ton, down 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [3][30] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate of thermal coal mines increased to 97.1%, while coking coal mine utilization decreased to 86.3% [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 7.10 thousand tons/day (+3.93%) and in inland provinces by 6.00 thousand tons/day (+1.93%) [11][12] - The April coal production in China was 390 million tons, reflecting a 5 million ton decrease from March, indicating a contraction in supply [11][12] 3. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality coal companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12][13] - The coal sector is expected to maintain high performance and cash flow, with a favorable outlook for the next 3-5 years due to ongoing supply constraints [12][13] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector saw a 0.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 0.18% decline [15][18] - The thermal coal segment rose by 1.62%, while the coking coal segment experienced a slight decline [15][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have stabilized, and with the peak summer demand approaching, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated. The low coal prices have led to a reduction in supply, with April 2025 coal production growth slowing to 3.8% year-on-year, and daily production decreasing by 8.7% month-on-month [1][7]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal is gradually increasing as temperatures rise, and the overall coal consumption in the chemical sector remains high. This marginal improvement in demand is expected to accelerate the reduction of port inventories, leading to a new round of price rebounds [1][7]. - The report emphasizes the investment value of stable high-dividend coal stocks, suggesting that the sector may experience a valuation uplift as coal prices enter an upward channel [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the coal supply has slightly decreased due to accidents affecting some coal mines, while demand is weakening as the consumption off-season approaches. This has led to a bearish sentiment in the market, with continued inventory accumulation [2][10]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption in power plants has increased, while the number of available days has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][10]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 yuan in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 times [3]. - The report highlights that companies like Jinko Coal and Shanxi Coal International are expected to show stable performance and production growth, making them attractive investment options [11][3]. Market Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.0%, outperforming the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report identifies that the coal stocks have cleared low positions after previous panic selling, and the stability of coal prices has been reaffirmed, enhancing the certainty of high dividend yields [1][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (首次) [1] Core Views - Huabei Mining is a leading producer of coking coal in East China, with significant operational improvements following the acquisition and restructuring in 2018. The company has optimized its financial structure, reducing interest-bearing debt from 22.6 billion to 10 billion by Q1 2025, and decreasing the debt-to-asset ratio from 62% in 2020 to 46% in Q1 2025 [2][4][11] - The company possesses scarce coking coal resources, with over 80% of its total reserves consisting of high-quality coal types such as fat coal, coking coal, and lean coal. The total coal resource is approximately 4.49 billion tons, with an annual production capacity of 35.85 million tons [2][72] - The coking coal business has several competitive advantages, including superior coal quality, advanced washing technology, and a strategic focus on major clients, with over 90% of sales being long-term contracts [2][3][17] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabei Mining, formerly known as Lei Ming Ke Hua, transitioned to coal and coal chemical business after acquiring Huai Mining shares in 2018. The company is controlled by the Anhui Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2][7] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market in China faces structural shortages of high-quality resources, with only 19% of the total coal reserves being coking coal. The company’s resources are primarily low-carbon, low-ash, and ultra-low-phosphorus, making them environmentally friendly [2][65] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 63.1 billion, 68 billion, and 70.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 3.26 billion, 4.51 billion, and 4.75 billion yuan respectively. The estimated PE ratios are 10.2, 7.4, and 7.0 [2][4] Growth Potential - The company has significant growth potential in both its coal and coal chemical segments, with ongoing projects expected to enhance production capacity and profitability. The coal chemical business, including methanol and ethanol production, is set to expand with new projects coming online [2][3][25] Risk Factors - The report does not include risk factors, but it is noted that the company’s performance is closely tied to coking coal prices, which have shown volatility in recent years [11][71]

淮北矿业 20250521 摘要 二季度淮北矿业产销与一季度持平，朱庄矿井关闭影响产量约 20 万吨/ 季度，预计 8 月底淮北矿业恢复可对冲影响。地质问题和工作面接替导 致暂时性产量下降，但 5 月中旬已恢复生产，自用煤增多也影响销量。 预计今年成本低于去年，受益于智能化开采、开采成本压降及费用减少。 二季度可能因去年处级以上年薪发放导致成本上升，但全年平均成本预 计低于去年。费用压降是主要因素，下半年幸福控股复产后将降低单位 生产成本。 内销水平基本稳定，年底电厂建成后外销动力煤将减少，明年陶湖图投 产后外销量将显著增加。临涣焦化的焦煤销售维持当前水平。部分矿井 深度已达 900 米以上，对运营带来挑战，需技术改进和管理优化。 焦煤价格下降使临涣焦化 4 月扭亏为盈，月盈利约 800-900 万元。目 前焦炭含税价 1,600-1,700 元，不含税价 1,400-1,500 元。二季度焦 煤价格环比下降约 170 元（含税），临涣焦化板块明显改善，一季度亏 损近 2 亿。 二季度乙醇成本降至 4,800 元/吨以下，售价约 5,400 元/吨。受例行大 修影响，产量低于平均值，5 月开始恢复正常生产能力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates a significant decline in coal imports and a downward trend in reliance on thermal coal, with a projected annual decrease in thermal coal imports by 4.9% for 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Coal Production and Import Trends - In April 2025, the raw coal production decreased by 5 million tons month-on-month, with a total output of 390 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [2]. - The total coal imports in April 2025 were 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.41% compared to the same month last year [3]. - For the first four months of 2025, coal imports totaled 152.67 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Power Generation Insights - In April 2025, the industrial power generation was 711.1 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [4]. - The thermal power generation in April 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, maintaining the same decline rate as in March [4]. - Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power showed accelerated growth rates of 12.7% and 16.7% respectively in April 2025 [4]. Group 3: Steel Production and Market Dynamics - The crude steel production in April 2025 was 86.02 million tons, remaining flat year-on-year [5]. - The average daily iron water production from 247 sample steel mills was 2.448 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [5]. - The market anticipates a seasonal peak in steel demand, with potential downward pressure on iron water production due to slowing inventory depletion [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (601088) and China Coal Energy (601898) for investment [6]. - It highlights the potential of companies like Xinji Energy (601918) and Shaanxi Coal (601225) based on performance metrics [6][7]. - The report also notes the importance of monitoring the impact of coal imports and domestic policy changes on market dynamics [5][6].

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 煤炭开采 有效供应环降，需求望迎改善，煤炭终迎年初至今配置良机 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 4 月份能源生产情况。 4 月原煤产量环比下降 5000 万吨。据国家统计局数据，4 月份，规上工业原 煤产量 3.9 亿吨，同比增长 3.8%，增速比 3 月份回落 5.8 个百分点；日均产 量 1298 万吨。1—4 月份，规上工业原煤产量 15.8 亿吨，同比增长 6.6%。 展望 2025 年，考虑到 2024 年上半年山西集中减产影响以及我们对明年煤矿 产能投放情况的梳理，我们预计在主产区均能顺利完成产量目标的理想情况 下（不考虑表外转表内、增产不增量等现象），2025 年产量净增量仅 5500~6000 万吨，同比增长约 1.2~1.3%，增速较 2024 年继续放缓。 4 月原煤进口 3783 万吨，同比-16.41%。2025 年 4 月份，我国进口煤炭 3782.5 万吨，较去年同期的 4525.2 万吨减少 742.7 万吨，同比下降 16.41%； 较 3 月份的 3873.2 万吨减少 90.7 万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining market is showing signs of bottoming out after a deep adjustment, with marginal improvements in fundamentals and supportive policies indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][10] - The report highlights five factors that may help stabilize coal prices, including reduced production from some coal mines, decreased railway shipment volumes, and anticipated increases in electricity demand due to high summer temperatures [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3,244.52 points, up 1.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.53 percentage points [2][78] - Year-to-date, thermal coal prices have decreased by 139 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices have fallen by 180 CNY/ton, with the CITIC Coal Index down 11.7% [2] Key Factors Affecting Coal Prices - The report identifies that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and production cuts in some coal mines, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization [6][10] - High inventory levels at ports are suppressing demand, but the report anticipates that electricity demand may rise as summer temperatures increase [6][10] Focused Analysis on Key Areas - **Thermal Coal**: The market remains weak, with supply still ample and demand primarily driven by essential needs [11][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to face downward pressure, with weak demand and high inventory levels [11][37] - **Coke**: Profits are recovering, supported by steady demand from steel production [11][54] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well [9][10] Industry News - Inner Mongolia has increased its coal production capacity by nearly 180 million tons per year, receiving recognition from the State Council [83] - International sea coal trade volumes have decreased by 6.7% year-on-year [84]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that coal companies are expected to report strong earnings growth for 2021, with profit growth rates of 514%, -125% (turning profitable), 475%, and 62% for various companies, indicating a significant improvement in profitability despite a drop in coal prices due to regulatory measures [1] - The coal price has rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal prices exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30% increase from the bottom, driven by export restrictions from Indonesia and mandatory inventory replenishment by power plants [1] - The overall economic growth is expected to stabilize, enhancing demand support, which will benefit coal as a primary energy source, alongside a recovery in the coal-coke-steel industry chain [1] Group 2 - High dividends are anticipated to continue, leading to a long-term increase in coal sector valuations, as companies are expected to disclose new shareholder return plans after March 2022 [2] - The capital expenditure in the coal industry has peaked, and with the trend towards "carbon neutrality," capital spending is expected to decline, optimizing the relationship between capital expenditure, cash flow, financials, profits, and dividends [2] - The coal sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with undervalued stocks, and companies with high dividends and those transitioning to green energy are expected to see valuation increases [2]