Core Viewpoint - The coal prices have significantly increased since the beginning of the year, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has intervened to stabilize supply and prices, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. The focus for coal stock investments should shift towards high dividends and transformation opportunities throughout the year [1]. Investment Highlights - Since the beginning of the year, coal prices have continued to rise, supported by fundamentals. The spot price of Qinhuangdao (Q5500) coal increased from 790 RMB/ton at the beginning of January to 1070 RMB/ton by the end of January. The rise is attributed to the rapid decline in port coal prices and the inversion of pit coal prices, leading to decreased enthusiasm among traders to pull coal to ports and low port inventories. The sentiment was further catalyzed by Indonesia's announcement to restrict coal exports. Demand has exceeded expectations due to strong electricity consumption and power plant restocking, with economic growth policies expected to further strengthen demand, providing effective support for coal prices [2]. - The NDRC has taken measures to consolidate supply and price stability, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. A meeting held on February 9 emphasized that coal companies should resume normal production and supply, strictly implement supply and price stabilization policies, and regulate pricing behavior. It is believed that the rise in coal prices may pause, but there is no risk of a rapid short-term decline due to factors such as increased demand for coal and electricity from a cold spring and economic growth, as well as the increase in Indonesia's benchmark coal price to 188.4 USD/ton, which translates to a domestic cost of over 1237 RMB/ton, exceeding domestic coal prices, limiting the increase in imported coal supply [2]. Investment Strategy - In 2022, investments in coal stocks should not overly focus on coal prices but rather seek alpha opportunities, as high dividends and transformation present greater potential for increases. Following the volatility in the coal market in 2021, the government has sufficient means to maintain price stability. The significant rise in prices leading to high earnings elasticity is unlikely to occur in 2022. However, the government shows tolerance for relatively high coal prices, which are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The long-term contract prices have significantly increased year-on-year, leading to an elevation in corporate profit levels. Value discovery will be the main theme for coal stock investments in 2022. The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal in February 2022 was 725 RMB/ton, and under the new mechanism, high long-term contract prices are expected to be maintained, leading to sustainable optimization in capital expenditure, cash flow, finance, profit, and dividends. New dividend plans are anticipated following the disclosure of annual reports by coal companies in March 2022. Additionally, the government encourages the construction of photovoltaic projects to address mining subsidence, suggesting that some coal companies may leverage local resources to acquire green energy projects, accelerating transformation [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a projected bottom, with valuations significantly low. With the increase in benchmark long-term contract prices for thermal coal and expected high prices for coking coal, high-quality resource companies possess long-term value, while transformation companies have growth potential. The sector is set to see valuation increases. The main investment themes for the year include high dividends, green energy transformation, and growth-oriented coal chemical projects. Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Jingyuan Coal Electricity, Energy Investment, Yanzhou Coal, China Xuyang Group, and Baofeng Energy. Additionally, high-quality resource companies recommended are Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Huaibei Mining, China Coal Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Lanhua Sci-Tech, Panjiang Coal and Electricity, and Pingdingshan Coal [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price expectations are beginning to improve as port inventory decreases and power plant replenishment demand becomes evident [1][7] - The supply side is tightening due to safety and environmental inspections leading to temporary mine closures, while demand remains supported by non-electric sectors [5][15] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with high dividends and strong cash flows, amidst market volatility [7][81] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port coal price decline has narrowed to 16 CNY/ton this week, down from 22 CNY/ton the previous week, indicating a potential stabilization [15][79] - The production capacity utilization in the main producing areas has decreased by 0.99 percentage points due to inspections and maintenance [15][79] - Coastal and inland power plant coal inventories are relatively low compared to last year, with a total of 11,478 million tons as of May 14, 2025, which is 146 million tons lower than the same period last year [15][79] 2. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal remains stable, with the capacity utilization rate unchanged, while imports have increased slightly [5][80] - Coking coal prices have remained stable at ports, with the average price at 1,320 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [47][80] - The inventory of coking coal production enterprises has increased by 23.22 million tons, indicating a slight oversupply [46][80] 3. Coke - The utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased to 76.02%, reflecting high production levels despite a slight decrease in iron output [6][59] - Coke prices have decreased slightly, with the price at 1,400 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [59][60] - The overall profitability in the coke industry has improved, with an average profit of 7 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week [62][66] 4. Anthracite Coal - The price of anthracite coal has remained stable, with the price at 850 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [76][78] - The demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, continues to support the anthracite market [76][78] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment potential in coal companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal [7][81] - The focus is on companies that exhibit characteristics of high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, which are attractive in the current market environment [7][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].

Group 1 - The coal industry is at the dawn of a new cycle, with short-term coal prices still in a bottom-seeking phase, but positive signals are emerging, indicating structural opportunities [1] - Non-electric demand for thermal coal is expected to continue releasing momentum, while coking coal benefits from strong infrastructure investment, leading to a recovery trend in coking coal demand [1] - The cost support on the supply side is solidifying the industry's bottom, with current coal prices nearing the average cost line, allowing leading coal companies to maintain robust profitability [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the coal sector's revenue decreased by 3.7% to 1,374.3 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 17.5% to 153 billion, with a return on equity (ROE) decline of 3.3 percentage points to 12.7% [2] - The thermal coal segment showed resilience with a net profit decline of only 7.4%, while the coking coal segment suffered a significant net profit drop of 51.9% due to price pressures [2] - The dividend payout ratio for the sector increased by 3.7 percentage points to 60.1%, with companies like China Shenhua (76.5%) and Shaanxi Coal (65%) maintaining strong dividend capabilities [2] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, the coal sector's revenue dropped by 17% to 284.6 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29% to 30.1 billion, with a gross margin decline of 0.7 percentage points to 27.8% [3] - The thermal coal segment's profit decline was narrower at 24.1%, while the coking coal segment faced a significant profit drop of 54.6% [3] - Overall production of listed coal companies increased by 5.8% year-on-year, but sales only slightly increased by 0.4%, indicating pressure on the sales front [3]

企查查APP显示，近日，华坪雷鸣矿业有限责任公司成立，法定代表人为徐钦明，注册资本3000万元， 经营范围包含：生态环境材料制造；生态环境材料销售；生态恢复及生态保护服务；建筑用石加工等。 企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由淮北矿业（600985）间接全资持股。(人民财讯) ...

炼焦煤 淮北矿业（600985.SH） 增持-A(维持) | 市场数据：2025 年 月 | 5 | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 12.08 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | | 20.18/11.76 | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 | | | 26.93/26.93 | | 股）： | | | | | 流通 股市值（亿元）： A | | | 325.35 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | | 325.35 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.26 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | 0.26 | | 每股净资产(元)： | 17.60 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 1.24 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | 胡博 煤焦量价下行拖累业绩，煤炭毛利率仍处相对高位 2025 年 5 月 12 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告：报告期内公司实现营业收入 105.67 亿元， 同比-39.00% ...

事件描述 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告：报告期内公司实现营业收入 105.67 亿元， 同比-39.00%，归母净利润 6.92 亿元，同比-56.50%，扣非后归母净利润 6.74 亿元，同比-56.96%。经营活动产生的现金流量净额 4.40 亿元，同比-72.87%； 基本每股收益为 0.26 元，同比-59.38%；加权平均 ROE 为 1.62%，同比减少 2.54 个百分点。 2025 年 5 月 12 日 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据：2025 年 月 | 5 | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 12.08 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | | 20.18/11.76 | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 | | | 26.93/26.93 | | 股）： | | | | | 流通 股市值（亿元）： A | | | 325.35 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | | 325.35 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.26 | | --- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [12][13] - The coal price is expected to remain weak in May due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is a bottom support for prices, and a gradual recovery is anticipated as the peak season approaches [3][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still present [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 635 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.8 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 96.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 33.80 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.17% week-on-week [12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day, a decline of 6.67% week-on-week [12] Inventory Situation - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has increased to 753 thousand tons, up 8.0% week-on-week [5] - The inventory of coking coal at production sites has risen to 390.43 thousand tons, an increase of 8.9% week-on-week [5] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a 1.47% increase this week, underperforming the broader market [15] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for stable operations and solid performance [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 10.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter. The report also notes a decrease in coal production and sales volume, with a focus on cost reduction to mitigate the impact of falling coal prices [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter. The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 670 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.9% [4][5] Production and Sales - The company's coal production and sales volume in Q1 2025 were 430.8 million tons and 297.2 million tons, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 17.7% and 26.2%, and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.8% and 14.8% [4][5] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 937.8 yuan per ton, down 20.3% year-on-year and down 10.8% quarter-on-quarter. The cost per ton of coal was 519.9 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a gross profit of 417.9 yuan per ton, down 28.4% year-on-year and down 18.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the company's growth potential in coal mining and coal chemical projects, with ongoing construction of significant projects such as the 800,000 tons/year Tohutu Mine and the 300,000 tons/year Xinh Lake Coal Mine. The company is also advancing coal chemical projects with a focus on deep utilization of by-products [6] - The company is currently in a state of undervaluation, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.76 as of May 6, 2025. The report mentions an increase in the minimum dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35%, which could support valuation recovery [6]

——公司 2025 年一季报点评报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2025/5/7 当前股价(元) 12.22 一年最高最低(元) 20.18/11.76 总市值(亿元) 329.12 流通市值(亿元) 329.12 总股本(亿股) 26.93 流通股本(亿股) 26.93 近 3 个月换手率(%) 38.73 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 淮北矿业 沪深300 煤炭/煤炭开采 淮北矿业（600985.SH） Q1 降本对冲煤价下滑影响，关注成长性及破净修复 2025 年 05 月 08 日 相关研究报告 《煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，关注成 长性及破净修复—公司 2024年报点评 报告》-2025.3.28 《Q3 煤炭量价齐跌拖累业绩，关注煤 矿+煤化工成长—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.30 《煤炭量价回落，关注煤矿和煤化工 项目成长—公司 2024 年中报点评报 告》-2024.8.30 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S079052 ...