Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining [1] Core Views - Huabei Mining is positioned as a leading coal and coke enterprise in East China, with expected increases in both volume and price in 2026, indicating a potential turning point in profitability [7] - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its abundant coal resources and favorable location in a region with high demand but limited supply [31] - The report highlights the company's effective cost control measures, which have led to a significant reduction in unit costs [50] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabei Mining is a leading integrated coal and coke operator in East China, with its main business segments including coal, coal chemical products, electricity, and construction materials [11][13] - The company is controlled by the Anhui Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a significant shareholding by Huabei Mining Group [11] Coal Business - The company expects a recovery in coal production in 2026, driven by the resumption of operations at the Xinhukou Mine and the commissioning of the Taohutu Mine [36] - As of H1 2025, the company has a coal reserve of over 2 billion tons and an approved annual production capacity of 34.25 million tons, with a potential lifespan of nearly 60 years based on current reserves [31][29] - The average selling price of coal is expected to rise, with January 2026 prices at 1,660 RMB per ton, reflecting a 28 RMB increase from Q4 2025 [45] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment is anticipated to reach a profitability turning point, with new projects expected to contribute positively to earnings [7] - The company has a total annual production capacity for coal chemicals of 440,000 tons for coke, 90,000 tons for methanol, and 60,000 tons for ethanol [7] Other Business Segments - The company has additional projects in electricity generation and limestone production, which are expected to enhance overall performance in 2026 [7] - A new 2×660MW ultra-supercritical coal-fired power project is expected to contribute approximately 196 million RMB in annual profit once operational [7] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be 1.495 billion RMB in 2025, 3 billion RMB in 2026, and 4.106 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a significant recovery trajectory [8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 23.3 for 2025, dropping to 11.6 for 2026, suggesting a favorable valuation for investors [8]

煤炭股的春天要来了？ 一条来自印尼的消息，像一块石头砸进了本已平静的湖面。 2026年2月10日，市场目光再次聚焦这个传统的能源领域。 人们发现， 印尼为了提振煤价，给主要矿商开出的1月份产量配额，竟然比2025年同期骤降了40%到70%。 全球煤炭的供应端，突然绷紧了一根弦。 一个有点反常识的现象率先跳了出来。 如果单看财务杠杆，也就是公司用债务扩大经营的激进程度，平煤股份以2.715倍的权益乘数排在第一位，远超其他 三家。 这意味着，它在更大程度上借助了"外力"来运营。 但与之形成刺眼对比的，是其前三季度仅有1%的ROE，在四家公司中垫底。 | 总资产周转率 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国神华 | 0. 325 | 0.521 | 0. 548 | 0. 561 | 0. 576 | | 陕西煤业 | 0. 506 | 0. 658 | 0. 681 | 0. 741 | 0. 636 | | 平煤股份 | 0. 185 | 0. 392 | 0. 415 | 0. 522 | ...

国家能源局网站2月9日消息，为加快煤矿智能化关键技术攻关和推广应用，迭代提升煤矿智能化建设运行水平，根据《国家能源局综 合司关于开展煤矿智能化技术升级应用试点工作的通知》（国能综通煤炭〔2025〕12 0号），经组织申报、初审推荐、专家评审和网 上公示等程序，确定"煤巷钻锚铺一体化智能快速掘进试点项目"等77个项目为煤矿智能化技术升级应用试点项目。现将试点项目名单 予以公布。 以下为原文 国家能源局综合司关于印发煤矿智能化技术升级应用试点项目名单的通知 国能综通煤炭〔2026〕14号 山西省、内蒙古自治区、云南省能源局，河北省、安徽省、山东省、四川省、陕西省、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革 委，河南省工业和信息化厅，中国华能集团有限公司、中国大唐集团有限公司、中国华电集团有限公司、国家电力投资集团有限公司、 一、科学编制试点项目实施方案。项目建设单位要以突破智能化关键技术瓶颈、推进智能系统优化升级为目标，聚焦典型应用场景，科 学编制试点项目建设实施方案，明确试点建设目标、技术方案、攻关重点、进度安排、资金支持、保障措施等。其中，建设目标、攻关 重点等要对照国能综通煤炭〔2025〕120号文中的技术指 ...

方正证券研报指出， 淮北矿业地处华东，拥有稀缺的 焦煤资源，通过投资新项目稳步成长。2025年焦 煤板块景气度先弱后强，认为2026年有望好转，且2026年公司新项目纷纷落地，目前公司正处于景气度 低点，未来有望迎来业绩提升。公司以优质炼焦煤为主，信湖复产、陶忽图投产提供新增量。反内卷& 需求维持，焦煤企业盈利有望反弹；公司发展焦化并且打通 精细化工，提升产业链利润水平。随着 煤 炭基本面好转、新项目不断推进，在基本面向好的同时公司仍具成长潜力，给予"强烈推荐"评级。 ...

方正证券研报指出，淮北矿业地处华东，拥有稀缺的焦煤资源，通过投资新项目稳步成长。2025年焦煤 板块景气度先弱后强，认为2026年有望好转，且2026年公司新项目纷纷落地，目前公司正处于景气度低 点，未来有望迎来业绩提升。公司以优质炼焦煤为主，信湖复产、陶忽图投产提供新增量。反内卷&需 求维持，焦煤企业盈利有望反弹；公司发展焦化并且打通精细化工，提升产业链利润水平。随着煤炭基 本面好转、新项目不断推进，在基本面向好的同时公司仍具成长潜力，给予"强烈推荐"评级。 ...

随着煤炭基本面好转、新项目不断推进，在基本面向好的同时公司仍具成长潜力，给予"强烈推荐"评 级。 风险提示：煤价超预期下跌风险、安全生产风险、新建产能不及预期风险、宏观经济波动风险。 反内卷&需求维持，焦煤企业盈利有望反弹。淮北矿业生产煤种以主焦煤和肥煤为主，具备资源稀缺属 性，全球范围内新增的优质炼焦煤煤矿都比较少，随着煤炭行业"反内卷"的推进，超产现象得以控制， 落后产能也将逐步退出，我国炼焦煤产能反而有下降压力。海外方面，印度对炼焦煤的需求不断提升， 蒙古运输能力仍存在瓶颈，未来炼焦煤供需有望保持紧缺。我们认为2025 年焦煤行业处于底部，未来 有望逐步好转。 公司发展焦化并且打通精细化工，提升产业链利润水平。公司通过临涣焦化建成焦炭产能440 万吨，为 提升自身焦化资源的利用率，公司后续建成了90 万吨甲醇，60 万吨无水乙醇，以及10 万吨DMC。当 前公司还有在建3 万吨碳酸脂、3 万吨乙基胺产能，加大精细化工发展水平。其中乙基胺属于附加值较 高的产品，有望进一步提高公司化工行业的毛利水平。 淮北矿业地处华东，拥有稀缺的焦煤资源，通过投资新项目稳步成长。淮北矿业为淮矿集团旗下煤炭上 市平台，地处华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining sector [4] Core Insights - The coal market is currently influenced by external factors, particularly the proposed significant production cuts by Indonesia, which could lead to a global coal supply shortage and increased prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets over domestic ones, suggesting that any "black swan" events in these markets could significantly impact coal prices [2] - The report highlights the "Overseas 3 Small Coal" concept, focusing on companies with international operations that are likely to benefit from the anticipated price increases [2][13] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3868.96 points, a decrease of 0.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.72 percentage points [76] - The report notes that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamental conditions, but high coal prices could enhance company valuations if unexpected events occur [1][2] Key Areas of Analysis - The report discusses the impact of Indonesia's proposed production cuts, which could reduce output by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, potentially leading to a significant tightening of the global coal market [1][2] - It also mentions that the domestic coal market is expected to experience a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Chinese New Year approaches, with prices likely to stabilize [33][38] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with international coal sales, specifically highlighting China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) as key investment opportunities [2][13] - It also suggests that Yancoal Australia's parent company, Yanzhou Coal, should be closely monitored [13] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, the spot price for thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 697 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [33] - The report indicates that while the market is currently stable, the sentiment is optimistic due to the supply constraints from Indonesia, which may lead to price increases post-holiday [33][35] Focused Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, based on their performance and market positioning [10][13] - It also highlights the importance of companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from market changes [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY/ton [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.71, and the PB ratio is 1.38, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [8][9] Key Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][20] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was reported at 1660 CNY/ton, down from 1800 CNY/ton, indicating a significant weekly decline [20][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on two main strategies: cyclical recovery and dividend stability, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [6][15] - Key stocks recommended include: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for cyclical logic; 中国神华, 中煤能源 for dividend potential; 神火股份, 电投能源 for diversified aluminum elasticity; 新集能源, 广汇能源 for growth logic [15][16]

Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the advantage of imported coal narrowing further [7][81] - The overall profitability of the coal mining industry is expected to improve in 2026 after a significant decline in 2025 [7][84] Market Dynamics - The CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 698 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2 RMB/ton [13][82] - The average daily consumption of coal in coastal power plants is 208,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [22][28] - The coal inventory at major ports decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [22][28] Industry Insights - The coal mining industry saw a profit total of 352 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 42% [7][84] - The expected supply-demand balance in 2026 is anticipated to support coal prices, with a significant reduction in supply growth [7][84] - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to enhance the fulfillment rate due to increased market factors [84][85] Key Companies - Major companies with stable dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [7] - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7] - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy Co., and Baofeng Energy [7]