Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in its half-year performance for 2025, with net profit projected to decrease by approximately 65% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.027 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 1.908 billion yuan from the previous year, representing a year-on-year decline of around 65% [2]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is approximately 966 million yuan, which is a decrease of about 1.922 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 66.56% [2]. Previous Year Performance Comparison - In the same period last year, the total profit was 3.294 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.935 billion yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 2.887 billion yuan [4]. Reasons for Performance Decline - The primary reason for the significant decline in the company's half-year performance is the relaxed supply-demand dynamics in the domestic coal market, leading to a notable decrease in coal prices, which adversely affected the company's main business profits [6].

Group 1 - Aerospace Science and Technology expects a net profit of 68 million to 95 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 1628.83% to 2315.27% compared to the same period last year [1] - Huaxia Airlines anticipates a net profit of 220 million to 290 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 741.26% to 1008.93% year-on-year [1] - Shida Group forecasts a net loss of 44 million to 65 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [1] Group 2 - Jiaao Environmental Protection expects a net loss of 70 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [3] - Haima Automobile predicts a net loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 152 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Huaibei Mining anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.027 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 65% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - Quanfu Automobile expects a net loss of 155 million to 185 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [5] - Gaode Infrared signed a procurement agreement worth 879 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact its operating performance for the year [5] - Zhongchen Co. won a project from Southern Power Grid worth 379 million yuan, representing 12.26% of its audited revenue for 2024 [5] Group 4 - Daheng Technology anticipates a net loss of 406,000 yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 988,250 yuan in the same period last year [6] - Dazhongnan expects a net profit of 6.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a recovery from a loss of 15.325 million yuan last year [6] - Xianfeng Holdings projects a net profit of 34 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 524.58% to 671.53% [7] Group 5 - Shuangxiang Co. expects a net profit of 115 million to 150 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 128.1% to 197.53% year-on-year [8] - ST Xintong anticipates a net loss of 67 million to 97 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [9] - Jishi Media forecasts a net loss of 187 million to 233 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10] Group 6 - Suli Co. expects a net profit of 72 million to 86 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1008.39% to 1223.91% [11] - Wanli Co. anticipates a net loss of 19 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 12.9238 million yuan last year [12] - Langzi Co. projects a net profit of 22 million to 26 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 31.74% to 55.69% year-on-year [14] Group 7 - Changjiang Securities expects a net profit of 1.652 billion to 1.81 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 110% to 130% [15] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94% [16] - Chenhua Co. plans to invest 30 million yuan in financial products with an expected annual yield of 3.20% [16] Group 8 - Zijing Mining expects a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of about 54% year-on-year [28] - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit of 26 million to 28 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [29] - Huazhong Securities expects a net profit of 1.035 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 44.94% year-on-year [30]

重要内容提示： 业绩预告的具体适用情形：本期业绩实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相 比下降 50%以上。 业绩预告相关的主要财务数据情况：淮北矿业控股股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 10.27 亿元左右，与上年同期相比，将减少 19.08 亿元左右，同比减少 65.00%左右； 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为 9.66 亿元左右，与上年同期相比，将减少 19.22 亿元左右，同比减少 66.56%左 右。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 股票代码：600985 股票简称：淮北矿业 编号：临 2025—024 淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 （一）利润总额：32.94 亿元。归属于母公司所有者的净利润：29.35 亿元。 归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润：28.87 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal are on the rebound, suggesting a turning point in the market [4][12] - The fundamentals for thermal coal remain favorable, with a current price of 632 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal, reflecting a 3.8% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY/ton earlier this year [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant increases, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1350 CNY/ton, a 9.76% rise from the previous low of 1230 CNY/ton [4][20] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY/ton, potentially exceeding 700 CNY/ton if favorable fundamentals persist [4][12] - Coking coal is more influenced by market dynamics, with current prices indicating a state of overselling, and supply-side tightening expected due to policy changes [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The report highlights a slight decrease of 1.08% in the coal sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points [7] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is 11.48, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.18, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Market Insights - As of July 11, the inventory at ports has decreased by 19% from the highest level of 3316.3 million tons earlier this year, currently standing at 26.89 million tons [3][4] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased to 2.148 million tons, driven by seasonal demand [4][19] Coking Coal Market Insights - The report notes a significant rebound in coking coal prices, with futures rising from 719 CNY to 913 CNY, a cumulative increase of 27% [4][20] - The average daily pig iron production remains high at 2.408 million tons, although there are signs of potential declines due to seasonal factors [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cycles and dividends for investment in the coal sector, identifying four main lines for stock selection: dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][13] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][13]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price rebound is expected to exceed expectations due to continuous improvement in supply and demand margins [1]. - The report highlights strong support for coal prices driven by increased electricity demand during high-temperature weather, with significant historical peaks in power load recorded [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create long-term uncertainties in domestic coal supply, while short-term supply is affected by heavy rainfall [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market value of 17,077.38 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16,672.70 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 637 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9 yuan/ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.642 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption during the summer heat, with a historical peak load of 2.52 million kilowatts recorded in the southern power grid [7]. - The supply side is constrained by heavy rainfall affecting production capacity, with the utilization rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions at 80.4% [6]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yancoal Energy, Guohui Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the rebound in coal prices [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the coal sector, particularly those related to thermal and coking coal [6][7].

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Huabei Mining, a company involved in coal mining and related businesses, particularly focusing on coking coal and non-coal operations [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Trends**: In Q3, the long-term contract price for coking coal decreased by approximately 100-130 RMB/ton compared to Q2, leading the company to a near break-even state [2][4]. 2. **Production and Financial Performance**: - Q1 production was around 4.3 million tons, which did not meet expectations due to complex geological conditions. Q2 saw an improvement with an increase of about 200,000 tons [3]. - The coking business turned profitable in Q2, recovering from a loss of 215 million RMB in Q1 to profitability in Q2, with a reduction in losses exceeding 200 million RMB [3][8]. - Non-coal business revenue increased by approximately 300 million RMB compared to Q1, with significant contributions from the titanium-zinc purification project and the forest mining sector [2][14]. 3. **Cost Management**: The company implemented cost reduction measures, achieving a coal cost of about 520 RMB/ton in Q1, a decrease of approximately 70 RMB year-on-year. The target for the full year is to maintain costs around 500 RMB/ton, although further reductions may be limited due to high labor costs [12][14]. 4. **Market Outlook**: Short-term coking coal prices may rebound due to supply constraints and steel mills' restocking needs. However, long-term demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and low inventory strategies at steel mills [6]. 5. **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35% and has established a three-year shareholder return plan from 2025 to 2027 [12][13]. 6. **Non-Coal Mining Performance**: The non-coal mining sector showed improved performance in Q2, with profits increasing significantly due to the gradual release of capacity from new mines [10]. Additional Important Information - **Regulatory Environment**: The national anti-involution policy currently does not impact the coal and steel industries significantly, and the company has not received any related directives [7]. - **Future Production Plans**: The company has no plans to reduce production, emphasizing the need to maintain cash flow and fulfill social responsibilities [5]. - **Profitability Projections**: The profitability per ton of coal was approximately over 100 RMB in Q2, but is expected to decrease in Q3 due to further price declines [15]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market conditions, and strategic outlook.

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7] Core Views - The coal supply-demand relationship continues to optimize under high-temperature conditions, with port coal prices rising and inventory decreasing [4][72] - The production side shows a tightening trend, with a decrease in capacity utilization in Shanxi and a reduction in transportation volumes [4][72] - The demand side is supported by power plants replenishing inventory in anticipation of increased consumption due to high temperatures [4][72] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices increased to 623 RMB/ton, up 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][72] - Inventory at northern ports decreased by 797,000 tons week-on-week [30] - Daily consumption at coastal power plants rose by 80,000 tons week-on-week [24][72] 2. Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has improved, with capacity utilization rising by 1.04 percentage points [5][41] - Coking coal prices at ports remained stable, with the average price at 1,230 RMB/ton [42] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 586,200 tons week-on-week [47] 3. Coke - Coking enterprises are experiencing a decline in production rates due to rising costs from coking coal prices [50] - The average profit per ton of coke is approximately -46 RMB, indicating a decrease in profitability [54] - Steel mills are replenishing raw material inventories, leading to a reduction in coke inventories [62] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices remained stable, with the price at 820 RMB/ton [68] - Demand from non-electric sectors remains weak, with procurement primarily focused on long-term contracts [68] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and asset quality of leading coal companies, emphasizing their investment value [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].