煤价继续走强涨幅收窄，供需边际改善后市乐观 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,821.16 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,427.03 | 2025-10-18 震荡偏强》2025-10-11 煤价震荡走强趋势明确》2025-09-27 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | | | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | ...

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 10 月 25 日 迎峰度冬在即，煤价强势攀升 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 770 元/吨， 周环比+2.9%，内蒙产地价大涨，陕西、山西产地价小涨。截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 547.9 万吨，环比-4.3 万吨，年同比-5.7%。本周电厂日耗大跌，电厂库存小跌，秦港库存微 涨，截至 10 月 20 日，动力煤库存指数为 188.7（-0.1）。非电方面， 甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 85.7%（-1.8pct）和 78.0%（-2.6pct），仍处 于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 10 月 24 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1760 元/吨，周环比+2.9%， 山西产地价格大涨，河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 10 月 24 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 76.1 万吨（-1.8 万吨），年同比-2.2%，532 家精煤库存 189.5 万吨（-15.9 万吨），年同比-31.5%；甘其毛都蒙煤 通关量 13.6 万吨（+3.4 万吨） ...

华源证券发布研报称，近期行业通过"查超产"的形式展开反内卷，此次供给端政策效果显著，在煤炭需 求端受宏观环境及新能源替代趋势影响的背景下，政策对供给端形成的拐点式收缩作用，或将是煤炭价 格企稳上行的关键性变量及长期积极因素。煤价方面，部分Q2已经降低履约价格的长协煤企业在Q3有 望保持价格平稳或略微回升，因此企业端长协煤业务的价格亦有望在Q3实现小幅回升。从炼焦煤企业 端盈利水平看，叠加喷吹煤以市场价交易，有望带动相关喷吹煤企业Q3业绩实现较好的环比提升。 华源证券主要观点如下： 炼焦煤市场价格环比上涨明显，2025年Q3京唐港主焦煤库提均价报1562元/吨，环比+18.8%；炼焦煤长 协价较为平稳，环比窄幅波动，不同主产地的主焦煤长协价涨跌互现。从炼焦煤企业端盈利水平看，主 焦煤企业由于大部分采用长协价销售主焦煤，2025Q3业绩环比或以持平微增为主，而长治地区喷吹煤 价格2025Q3环比上涨9.3%，叠加喷吹煤以市场价交易，有望带动相关喷吹煤企业Q3业绩实现较好的环 比提升。 产量环比微跌影响或有限 从整体产量看，上市煤企商品煤产量多数落在核定产能要求内，即使略有超产，比例也较小。然而，此 次"查超产"在 ...

进入四季度，冷锋过境，北方气温骤降，使这个被市场"忽视"的板块重新进入人们的视野。随着该板块 的供需格局逐步改善，叠加充沛的现金流与估值安全边际，它是否有望成为"高低切"资金的新落脚点？ 机构有最新研判。 国盛证券： 煤炭板块估值和利润向上弹性可期 未来煤炭补库需求有望进一步增长，叠加供给端难有增加，预计四季度煤价将维持偏强，板块股息率优 势明显，估值和利润向上弹性可期。长期看，预计2026—2028年煤炭供应增长将放缓，东南亚等地区煤 炭需求增长较为确定，预计海外煤价也将维持相对高景气。重点推荐盈利分红稳健的动力煤公司：中国 神华、陕西煤业、中煤能源、兖矿能源等；受益于需求预期向好、供应收缩的高弹性公司：山西焦煤、 潞安环能、淮北矿业、晋控煤业、首钢资源等。 太平洋证券： 煤炭等为代表的板块或重新获得市场关注 预计以煤炭、银行、养殖等为代表的板块强势不会只是一日行情，未来一个季度这些板块或将重新获得 市场的关注。而科技过高的吸筹率和波动率将很难获得超额收益，仍在低位的煤炭、银行、光伏、养 殖、核电预计在四季度会有不错的表现。市场会抚平每一处"洼地"，买在无人问津处、卖在人声鼎沸时 是获得超额收益的必要条件。 ...

淮北矿业所属申万行业为：煤炭-煤炭开采-焦煤。所属概念板块包括：动力煤、超超临界发电、民爆、 煤化工、甲醇概念等。 截至9月30日，淮北矿业股东户数4.53万，较上期减少1.50%；人均流通股59430股，较上期增加1.52%。 2025年1月-6月，淮北矿业实现营业收入206.82亿元，同比减少44.58%；归母净利润10.32亿元，同比减 少64.85%。 分红方面，淮北矿业A股上市后累计派现131.56亿元。近三年，累计派现73.18亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，淮北矿业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股2845.45万股，相比上期减少396.44万股。红利低波（512890）位居第三大流通股东，持股 2753.17万股，相比上期增加452.92万股。华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF（510880）位居第八大流通股东，持股 2460.97万股，相比上期减少502.36万股。 10月23日，淮北矿业盘中上涨2.01%，截至11:13，报13.69元/股，成交1.63亿元，换手率0.45%，总市值 368.71亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入31.10万元，特大单买入 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600188 | 究矿能源 | 15.01 | -3.10% | 109.51万 | 16.31亿 | | 601898 | 中煤能源 | 13.28 | -2.99% | 76.92万 | 10.12亿 | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 15.80 | -2.95% | 46.41万 | 7.34亿 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 11.31 | -2.08% | 60.91万 | 6.83亿 | | 600123 | 兰花科创 | 6.98 | -1.97% | 67.98万 | 4.73 Z | | eoleaa | 潞安环能 | 16.16 | -1.82% | 61.27万 | 9.79亿 | | 600985 | 淮北矿业 | 13.60 | -1.81% | 26.26万 | 3.55亿 | | 601225 | 陕西煤业 | 22.52 | -1.66% | 60.51万 | 13.54亿 | | 600758 | 辽 ...

煤化工板块领跌，下跌1.0%，其中安泰集团下跌7.03%，宝泰隆下跌6.82%，中煤能源下跌5.26%，兖矿 能源、六国化工、淮北矿业跌超3%。（AI生成） ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月21日，煤化工板块领跌，下跌1.0%，其中安泰集团下跌7.03%，宝泰隆下跌6.82%， 中煤能源下跌5.26%，兖矿能源、六国化工、淮北矿业跌超3%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that stricter safety regulations and supply constraints are expected to drive coal prices higher, particularly in the context of the upcoming winter heating season [3]. - It notes significant increases in spot prices for thermal coal, with prices for Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port rising by 36, 41, and 39 RMB/ton respectively [3]. - The report emphasizes the expected continued upward momentum in thermal coal prices due to seasonal demand and tightening supply [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The report discusses various projects, including a major energy logistics project in Xinjiang with a total investment of 2.56 billion RMB, aimed at enhancing energy security [4]. - It mentions the construction of a coal-to-natural gas project in Northeast China, which is expected to convert 7.5 million tons of low-quality coal into 1.33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [8]. Price Movements - Thermal coal prices have seen significant increases, with various regions reporting price hikes, such as a 20 RMB/ton increase in Datong and a 40 RMB/ton increase in Yulin [9]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported at 1485 RMB/ton in Shanxi [12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a decrease in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, with an average of 1.4914 million tons, down 15.46% week-on-week [20]. - Conversely, coal outflow from the same ports increased by 24.93%, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [20]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen significantly, with average freight rates reported at 43.05 RMB/ton, an increase of 28.96% [27]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts [32]. - For instance, China Shenhua's stock price is reported at 41.90 RMB with a market cap of 832.5 billion RMB and an EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024 [32].

Core Viewpoint - Huabei Mining's stock price has shown a positive trend recently, with a year-to-date increase of 2.33% and significant gains over various trading periods, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Company Overview - Huabei Mining Co., Ltd. is located in Huabei City, Anhui Province, and was established on March 18, 1999. It was listed on April 28, 2004. The company primarily engages in the sale of civil explosive products and blasting engineering services, as well as coal mining, washing, processing, and sales, and the production and sales of coal chemical products [1]. - The revenue composition of Huabei Mining includes: commodity trading (39.15%), coal products (26.23%), coal chemical products (20.81%), engineering and labor services (3.55%), blending business (2.55%), electricity sales (1.99%), others (1.96%), blasting engineering services (1.23%), mining business (1.21%), civil explosive product sales (0.81%), and transportation services (0.51%) [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, Huabei Mining had 45,300 shareholders, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous period, with an average of 59,430 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.52% [2]. - For the first half of 2025, Huabei Mining reported operating revenue of 20.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion yuan, down 64.85% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Huabei Mining has distributed a total of 13.156 billion yuan in dividends. In the last three years, the cumulative dividend payout was 7.318 billion yuan [3]. Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder of Huabei Mining is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 28.4545 million shares, a decrease of 3.9644 million shares from the previous period. The third-largest shareholder, Low Volatility Dividend (512890), increased its holdings by 4.5292 million shares to 27.5317 million shares [3].