◎记者 王文嫣 7月22日股票市场收盘，申万宏源煤炭指数大涨6.18%，山西焦煤、昊华能源、山煤国际、潞安环能、 淮北矿业、晋控煤业等煤炭上市公司股价集体涨停。期货市场，焦煤、焦炭主力合约均收于涨停，涨幅 为7.98%。上海证券报记者从多方获悉，国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省（区）组织开展煤矿生产情 况核查工作。资深煤炭行业研究员认为，根据核查通知相关精神，煤炭等资源品或将迎来拐点。 煤炭行业板块指数日K线图 张大伟 制图 煤炭行业"反内卷"即将展开 需求回升 煤炭等资源品或迎拐点 "除了供应端有收缩预期，随着宏观经济好转，此前超跌的资源品价格也在修复中。"万家基金经理叶勇 对记者表示，当前各行业都在"反内卷"，相关政策通过严格按照产能来限制产量有一定合理性。而从需 求和成本角度来看，近期煤炭等资源品价格也已触底，将迎来拐点。 中国电煤采购价格指数（CECI）编制办公室发布的最新一期《CECI指数分析周报》显示，CECI沿海指 数中高热值煤种现货成交价分别较上期上涨11元/吨和6元/吨。曹妃甸指数各规格品价格较上期均上涨 10元/吨。CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价继续上涨。CECI采购经理人指数连续6期处于扩张 ...

【导读】A股大涨，煤炭板块午后直线拉升 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，最近的A股市场，表现实在亮眼，每天涨个不停，今天盘中三大指数虽然坐了几回"过山车"，但最后都是以大涨 收尾，相信你们都挣到钱了，没有在其他资产里面躲过这轮牛市吧！ 一起看看今天市场发生了什么！ | 最高:12.60 | 今开:11.54 | 涨停: 12.60 | 成交量: 91.26万手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低: 11.46 | 昨收:11.45 | 跌停: 10.31 | 成交额:10.98亿 | | 量K： 2.55 | 换手:3.05% | 市盈率(动)：14.33 | 市盈率(TTM): 20.72 | | 委比: 100.00% | 振幅: 9.96% | 市盈率(静): 15.39 | 市净率:0.80 | | 每股收益:0.61 | 股息(TTM): 0.41 | 总股本: 29.91亿 | 总市值: 376.92亿 | | 每股净资产:15.79 | 股息率(TTM): 3.25% | 流通股: 29.91亿 | 流通值: 376.92亿 | | 52周最高: 18.57 | ...

"反内卷"扩散至煤炭！ 7月22日午间，突然有一则传闻流传于市：国家能源局综合司发布的《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通知》（下称 《通知》）。《通知》指出：今年以来，全国煤炭供需形势总体宽松，价格持续下行，部分煤矿企业"以量补价"，超公告产能组织生产，严重扰 乱煤炭市场秩序。本次核查范围为山西、内蒙古、安徽、河南、贵州、陕西、宁夏、新疆等8省(区)的生产煤矿，已进入联合试运转的煤矿参照 生产煤矿进行核查。 近期，全国多地高温导致用电负荷屡创新高，动力煤需求持续旺盛，港口库存去化明显，产地煤价普遍上涨。炼焦煤方面，受暴雨影响产量恢复 缓慢，叠加焦炭首轮提涨及下游阶段性补库，价格仍有上涨空间。 政策层面，中国煤炭工业协会发布《2024年度安全高效煤矿建设报告》，强调煤矿数字化转型与安全高效发展。国家能源局推动迎峰度夏重点工 程投运，提升电力保供能力。此外，中国煤炭运销协会重申电煤中长期合同制度，强化用户管理和合同履约，高层提出治理低价无序竞争，优化 劣质煤进口监管，以稳定市场预期。 目前，尚无官方证实上述《通知》是否属实，但市场明显受此带动。 在下午红利指数的反弹结构当中，煤炭板块权重很大。 ...

| 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 07 月 20 日 | 相关研究 【兴证煤炭】煤炭行业周报（2025.7.6- 2025.7.12）——"反内卷"行情加持， 煤价持续走高-2025.07.14 【兴证煤炭】周报 24：酷热来袭需求提 速，动煤价格反弹可期（2025.6.29- 2025.7.05）-2025.07.06 行业周报 | 煤炭 证券研究报告 liranran@xyzq.com.cn 煤炭行业周报（2025.7.13-2025.7.19）—— 煤价全面走高，板块有望开启上攻 投资要点： 周观点（2025.7.13-2025.7.19）：1）动力煤：迎峰度夏已至，坑口煤价全面走高。本周， 坑口煤价全面上涨。供应端，主产地供应逐步恢复，晋陕蒙煤炭产量环比增加。进口端， 在国内外煤价倒挂下，进口煤延续减量，6 月进口同比显著下滑 26%，供应整体有所收紧； 需求端，酷热来袭，社会用电需求大幅攀升，日耗走高，相较去年同期已有增长。展望后 市，随着高温天气持续演绎，煤价有望延续走强。2）炼焦煤：焦煤价格全面走高，坑口现 货价格涨至长协之上。本周， ...

证券研究报告 中报利空出尽，基本面仍向上 ——煤炭行业周报（7月第3周） 行业评级：看好 2025年7月20日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收跌，跑输沪深300指数。截止2025年7月18日，中信煤炭行业收跌0.74%，沪深300指数上涨1.09%，跑输沪深300指数1.83个百分点。全板块整周6只股价上涨，31只下跌。ST 大洲涨幅最高，整周涨幅为4.89%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年7月11日-2025年7月17日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为731万吨，周环比增加2.8%，年同比增加4.7%。其中，动力煤周日均销量较 上周增加3.2%，炼焦煤销量较上周增加1.9%，无烟煤销量较上周增加1%。截至2025年7月17日，重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）3128万吨，周环比减少4%，年同比增加19.8%。今年 以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量136784.8万吨，同比减少3.6%；其中动力煤、焦煤、无烟煤累计销量分别同比-4.8%、-3.5%、7% ...

2025年上半年收官之际，十余家煤炭企业中期"成绩单"也陆续揭晓。 据了解，"煤炭一哥"中国神华利润已连续10个季度同比下滑；平煤股份利润同样连续10个季度同比下 滑；淮北矿业利润连续8个季度同比下滑；冀中能源利润连续6个季度同比下滑。 煤炭市场三次大幅波动 继中国神华（601088.SH）披露业绩预告后，7月14日，甘肃能化（000552.SZ）、冀中能源 （000937.SZ）、兰花科创（600123.SH）、永泰能源（600157.SH）、安源煤业（600397.SH）、恒源 煤电（600971.SH）、淮北矿业（600985.SH）、平煤股份（601666.SH）等多家煤炭上市公司密集发布 了上半年的业绩预告，从已公布的信息来看，这些企业无一例外均出现利润显著下滑。 对于煤炭行业利润下滑，一德期货动力煤分析师曾翔告诉《华夏时报》记者，主要是煤炭价格明显回落 所致，截至今年6月30日，北港5500大卡的平仓价为620元/吨，较年初下降接近20%，而煤企的固定成 本基本变化不大，价格回落就会直接体现在利润的收缩上。 净利纷纷预减 7月11日，郑州煤电（600121.SH）、盘江股份（600395.SH）率 ...

截至2025年7月18日，红利ETF国企(530880)上涨0.59%。成分股淮北矿业(600985)上涨1.86%，潞安环能 (601699)上涨1.68%，上海银行(601229)上涨1.66%，中国石化(600028)上涨1.57%，开滦股份(600997)上 涨1.52%。 高温天气叠加"反内卷"政策的持续发酵，煤炭市场走势强劲：动力煤受季节性用电高峰支撑，价格上行 预期增强；焦煤则因供给端政策调整与需求端补库需求释放，价格企稳回升。 国信证券研报分析称，煤炭价格在上半年已完成探底，下半年供需格局有望改善，煤价具备持续反弹潜 力，看好煤炭需求韧性。 没有股票账户的也可借道场外联接一键布局，银河上证国有企业红利ETF发起式联接A：023162；银河 上证国有企业红利ETF发起式联接C：023163。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 近日，"反内卷"政策通过治理低价无序竞争，加速淘汰焦煤等领域的落后产能，与过去"一刀切"式去产 能不同，本轮"反内卷"更强调市场导向与结构性优化。政策通过提升先进产能占比、优化资源配置，推 动行业利润向头部企业集中，具备成本优势与高分红 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates seasonal improvement in thermal coal demand due to high temperatures in July and August, which may lead to a short-term price recovery for thermal coal. The coal sector is currently underweight, with attractive dividend yields and defensive allocation value [2][25] - For coking coal, there is a rebound in prices driven by strong policy expectations and market sentiment, but the bargaining power of coking coal remains relatively weak in the black industry chain, limiting short-term upside potential [2][34] Supply Summary - Domestic coal production in June reached 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. The total coal production for the first half of the year was 240.5 million tons, up 5.4% year-on-year [6][14] - Coal imports in June fell to 33.04 million tons, a decrease of 25.93% year-on-year and 8.3% month-on-month. Cumulative imports for the first half of the year were 221.7 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year [18][21] Demand Summary - In June, thermal power generation increased by 1.1% year-on-year and 7.0% month-on-month, with total domestic power generation reaching 796.3 billion kWh, up 1.7% year-on-year [24][27] - Non-electric coal demand, particularly in cement production, saw a decline, with June production at 15.547 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [29][33] - The steel sector showed a significant year-on-year decrease in production, with crude steel output in June at 8.318 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year [33][38] Future Outlook - The report suggests that thermal coal prices may see further support due to seasonal demand increases and the current low inventory levels at power plants. Key factors to monitor include supply conditions, high-temperature weather, and sustained demand release [25][27] - For coking coal, while recent price rebounds are noted, the report indicates limited short-term upside due to weak bargaining power and strong expectations of a seasonal downturn [34][38]

Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Supply: Marginal Increment Significantly Reduced - Domestic coal production from January to May increased by approximately 130 million tons year-on-year, while imports decreased by about 16 million tons, indicating an overall increase in supply [3][7] - The domestic raw coal production reached 1.99 billion tons from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%. However, the growth rate is expected to narrow in the second half of the year, with an estimated total production of around 4.85 billion tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9 million tons (2%) [3][9] - The decrease in imports is attributed to weak demand, high inventory levels, and diminishing price advantages of imported coal. For the first five months of 2025, coal imports totaled 19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 16 million tons (8%) [3][64] Demand: Short-term Improvement Expected, Medium-term Resilience Visible - National commodity coal consumption from January to May reached 2.05 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 billion tons (0.5%). The demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the consumption peak season approaches [3][4] - In the thermal power sector, the demand is under pressure due to slowing electricity growth and competition from renewable energy. However, the demand for thermal power is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3][4] - Non-electric demand, particularly from the chemical sector, remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in coal-to-PVC, coal-to-ethylene glycol, and coal-to-methanol production [3][4] Inventory: High Port Inventory Declining, De-stocking Remains Focus - Port inventories are currently at high levels but are expected to decline as demand improves in the peak consumption season. The focus will remain on de-stocking [4] Price: Thermal Coal Prices at Bottom, Coking Coal Prices Showing Stages of Rebound - The average market price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by approximately 199 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. However, there is potential for price rebound as supply-demand dynamics improve [3][57] Investment Recommendations: High Dividend Value Still Exists, Stage Game Elasticity - The report suggests that despite the downward pressure on coal prices, there is still potential for a rebound in the second half of the year. The resilience of coal demand is viewed positively in the medium term [3][4] - Key investment targets include stable-performing coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as elastic stocks like Electric Power Investment and Jinko Coal Industry [3][4]