淮北矿业控股股份有限公司（下称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上市公 司行业信息披露指引第二号——煤炭》、《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十三号 —化工》的有关规定，现将公司 2025 年前三季度主要经营数据披露如下： | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025 年 1-9 月 | 2024 年 1-9 月 | 变动比率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 产量 | 万吨 | 1,303.78 | 1,567.04 | -16.80 | | | 销售量 | 万吨 | 981.34 | 1,187.83 | -17.38 | | 商品煤 | 销售收入 | 万元 | 788,731.21 | 1,324,033.95 | -40.43 | | | 销售成本 | 万元 | 452,539.54 | 661,748.71 | -31.61 | | | 销售毛利 | 万元 | 336,191.67 | 662,285.24 | -49.24 | 一、煤炭产品的产量、销量、收入、成本及毛利情况 说明：以上商品煤销量、收入、成本等数据不包含公司内销。 二、煤化工产品的产量、销量 ...

Financial Performance - Operating revenue for Q3 2025 was CNY 11,229,103,717.57, a decrease of 42.22% compared to the same period last year[3] - Total profit for the quarter was CNY 33,619,281.19, down 97.61% year-on-year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 38,721,607.87, reflecting a 96.78% decline compared to the previous year[3] - The company's operating revenue for the reporting period decreased by 43.81%, primarily due to a reduction in coal volume and price, as well as a decline in trading business revenue[9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the reporting period was down 74.14%, significantly impacted by the dual decline in coal production and prices[9] - The company reported a decrease in total profit of 76.17 million for the reporting period, reflecting ongoing challenges in the coal market[9] - The net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is CNY 795,694,845.83, a decrease of 79.93% compared to CNY 3,960,929,403.30 in the same period of 2024[19] - The basic earnings per share for the reporting period was -74.68, indicating a substantial loss compared to the previous period[9] - The basic earnings per share for the current period is CNY 0.40, down from CNY 1.58 in the previous period[20] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was CNY 3,856,415,347.37, a decrease of 50.49%[3] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the reporting period was -50.49 million, mainly due to decreased sales revenue from coal and coke[9] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 is CNY 3,856,415,347.37, a decline of 50.5% compared to CNY 7,789,008,932.08 in 2024[21] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from 4.28 billion to 3.03 billion, reflecting a significant reduction in liquidity[13] - The cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period are CNY 2,248,661,905.72, down from CNY 4,814,995,237.93 at the end of 2024[22] - The net cash flow from financing activities for the reporting period was 111.11 million, mainly due to an increase in interest-bearing liabilities[9] - The net cash flow from financing activities for the first three quarters of 2025 is CNY 414,283,578.33, a recovery from -CNY 3,729,753,624.35 in 2024[22] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 89,255,788,210.26, an increase of 1.72% from the end of the previous year[4] - Total liabilities amounted to CNY 43,467,383,993.58, up from CNY 40,869,180,045.77 in the previous year, representing an increase of approximately 6.5%[15] - Shareholders' equity attributable to the company decreased by 2.34% to CNY 41,398,678,143.93 compared to the end of last year[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company was CNY 41,398,678,143.93, down from CNY 42,388,718,698.68 in the previous year, reflecting a decrease of about 2.3%[16] Inventory and Borrowings - Inventory decreased by 39.48%, primarily due to the disposal of a subsidiary and reduced coal inventory[8] - Short-term borrowings increased by 106.57%, indicating a rise in the company's short-term financing needs[8] - Long-term borrowings increased by 98.53 million, primarily due to the company securing additional project loans[9] Revenue and Costs - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 31,924,953,670.15, a decrease from CNY 56,785,931,751.93 in the same period of 2024, representing a decline of approximately 43.8%[18] - Total operating costs for the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to CNY 31,005,772,130.29, down from CNY 52,254,045,046.87 in 2024, indicating a reduction of about 40.6%[18] - Operating income for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 31,841,216,698.03, compared to CNY 56,668,894,450.53 in 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 43.9%[18] Other Financial Metrics - Non-recurring gains and losses totaled CNY 11,552,900.33 for the quarter, significantly lower than the previous year's amount[7] - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled CNY 1,495,025,405.21, slightly down from CNY 1,639,697,851.42 in 2024, showing a decrease of about 8.8%[18] - Financial expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 were CNY 364,740,623.51, compared to CNY 406,637,613.14 in 2024, indicating a decline of approximately 10.3%[18] - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company's owners for the first three quarters of 2025 is CNY 1,070,337,167.78, compared to CNY 4,139,229,732.33 in 2024[20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategy of fund manager Huang Hai, emphasizing his continued focus on the coal industry despite recent underperformance compared to the market index [3][6][18]. Fund Performance - In 2025, Huang Hai's flagship fund, Wan Jia Xin Li Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, reported a year-to-date return of 9.14%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 9 percentage points [3][7]. - Huang Hai's management scale has decreased to just over 3 billion yuan, reflecting investor dissatisfaction due to underperformance [3][6]. Industry Analysis - The coal industry faced significant challenges in early 2025 due to high inventory levels and declining prices, but began to recover in the summer with increased demand during peak electricity usage [6][7]. - By the third quarter of 2025, coal companies showed signs of recovery, with major firms like China Shenhua and New Energy showing improved net profits [7][8]. Investment Strategy - Huang Hai maintains a high concentration in coal stocks, with 73% of his fund's net value invested in this sector as of the third quarter [7][8]. - Despite criticism, Huang Hai's investment style remains consistent, focusing heavily on coal and showing little diversification [8][12]. Portfolio Adjustments - In the third quarter, Huang Hai made minor adjustments to his portfolio, reducing holdings in certain coal stocks while increasing positions in gold mining companies, which performed well [14][15]. - The top ten holdings in his flagship fund include several coal companies, with notable increases in gold stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Gold [15][14]. Future Outlook - Huang Hai believes that traditional dividend-paying cyclical sectors, such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals, will not be absent in future bull markets and will provide substantial absolute returns [16][17]. - The article suggests that long-term capital will likely increase allocations to dividend-generating cyclical assets as manufacturing capacity cycles clear [17][18].

Market Performance - The Anhui state-owned enterprise reform sector rose by 1.73% compared to the previous trading day, with Waneng Electric Power leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Key Stocks in Anhui State-Owned Enterprise Reform Sector - Waneng Electric Power (000543) closed at 8.65, up 10.05%, with a trading volume of 1.0268 million shares and a transaction value of 870 million [1] - Anhui Heli (600761) closed at 21.76, up 6.41%, with a trading volume of 295,300 shares and a transaction value of 634 million [1] - Tongguan Copper Foil (301217) closed at 32.10, up 6.05%, with a trading volume of 510,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.626 billion [1] - Jianghuai Automobile (600418) closed at 52.79, up 5.01%, with a trading volume of 721,100 shares and a transaction value of 3.777 billion [1] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) closed at 5.86, up 2.81%, with a trading volume of 3.9126 million shares and a transaction value of 2.299 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The Anhui state-owned enterprise reform sector saw a net inflow of 156 million from main funds, while speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 231 million [2] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 74.36 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Jinghe Integrated (688249) had a main fund net inflow of 242 million, but a speculative fund net outflow of 42.99 million [3] - Jianghuai Automobile (600418) saw a main fund net inflow of 160 million, with a speculative fund net outflow of 166 million [3] - Waneng Electric Power (000543) experienced a main fund net inflow of 64.71 million, while speculative funds had a net outflow of 57.96 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the underlying logic for the recent rise in coal prices is due to supply constraints caused by increased safety inspections and production restrictions. It predicts that coal prices will continue to rise, especially if demand exceeds expectations, such as during a cold winter [2][7] - The report highlights that the domestic coal production has been declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September, and this trend is expected to continue into October [2][11] - The report notes that the current low inventory levels compared to the previous year will reduce price suppression, allowing for greater price elasticity if demand increases [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates that the coal mining index increased by 1.46% but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 3.24% [2][74] - It mentions that the price of thermal coal has stabilized after a rapid increase, with the current price at 770 RMB/ton, up by 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][34] - The report also states that the supply of coking coal remains tight, with prices reaching new highs due to strong demand from downstream industries [11][52] Key Areas of Analysis - For thermal coal, the report identifies ongoing supply disruptions and low port inventories as factors that make prices likely to rise [12][15] - In the coking coal segment, the report notes that prices have surged due to strong purchasing sentiment from downstream users, with some prices increasing by 30-100 RMB/ton since October [11][52] - The report highlights that the overall supply-demand balance in the coal industry remains stable, with expectations for further price increases as production constraints persist [2][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, all rated as "Buy" [10] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply situation and potential demand recovery in the coal market, particularly in relation to the real estate sector [11][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing significant supply tightening due to stricter safety regulations, with port prices for thermal coal reaching a new high of 770 RMB/ton as of October 24, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 RMB/ton [5][14] - The report anticipates that the ongoing policies to curb overproduction will continue to constrain supply, combined with low upstream inventories and high pit prices, which are expected to support coal prices in a strong upward trend as winter demand approaches [7][71] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The supply of thermal coal is tightening, with port prices increasing; as of October 24, 2025, the price at northern ports is 770 RMB/ton, up 22 RMB/ton week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased by 2.54 percentage points to 88.21% as of October 22, 2025, primarily due to stricter safety inspections and equipment maintenance [20][71] - Demand from coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends, with coastal power plant daily consumption decreasing by 27.3 thousand tons while inland consumption increased by 42.0 thousand tons [23][71] Coking Coal - Coking coal supply is tightening, with production capacity utilization dropping by 1.40 percentage points to 84.4% due to increased safety inspections and maintenance in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia [40][72] - The price of main coking coal at the port reached 1,760 RMB/ton as of October 24, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 50 RMB/ton [41][72] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 10.97 thousand tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [48][72] Coke - The supply of coke is tightening, with production rates at independent coking plants decreasing; the average profit per ton of coke is currently negative, indicating financial pressure on some enterprises [51][72] - The average daily iron output decreased by 1.04 million tons to 239.85 million tons, affecting demand for coke [59][72] - The report suggests that the coke market is expected to maintain a stable price trend, influenced by iron output and macroeconomic factors [72] Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report highlights several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a focus on their strong cash flow and high dividend yields [7][9] - The report emphasizes the investment value of coal stocks due to their high dividend yields and stable cash flows, particularly in the context of macroeconomic uncertainties [7][72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. coal energy agenda is accelerating, with Republican lawmakers proposing a "Coal Week" to bolster coal production and keep aging coal-fired power plants operational. This aligns with federal efforts to revitalize the coal industry, including plans to open 13 million acres of federal land for coal leasing and allocate approximately $625 million for restarting or modernizing coal power units [2][3]. - Competitive coal mining rights auctions are being held in Alabama, Montana, and Utah, serving as indicators of industry demand. However, early auction activities show mixed interest, with some land receiving minimal bids [3]. - The report highlights several key companies for investment, including Yancoal Energy, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy, among others, emphasizing their performance resilience and potential for growth [6]. Summary by Sections Coal Prices - Coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle port coal priced at $110.65 per ton, down by $0.8 from the previous week, and European ARA port coal at $96 per ton, down by $1.77 [31]. Market Trends - The report notes a marginal increase in coal power demand, indicating a potential recovery in the coal sector as energy needs shift [34]. Key Companies - Recommended stocks include: - China Qinfa (Buy) with projected EPS of 0.20 in 2024 - Jiangxi Tungsten (Buy) with projected EPS of -0.28 in 2024 - China Shenhua (Buy) with projected EPS of 2.95 in 2024 - Jinneng Holding (Buy) with projected EPS of 1.68 in 2024 - Yancoal Energy (Buy) with projected EPS of 1.44 in 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Views - The coal price continues to strengthen, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand dynamics, leading to an optimistic outlook for the future [1][8]. - The report highlights that the coal supply is expected to contract due to various factors, including increased safety inspections and government policies aimed at reducing overproduction [7][8]. - As winter approaches, the demand for electricity coal is anticipated to rise, further supporting coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,982.12 billion yuan [2]. - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with the port price for thermal coal exceeding 770 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic coal supply is expected to contract, with coal imports showing a downward trend [7]. - Recent data shows that coal consumption in 25 provinces has increased, with a daily consumption of 5.335 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.94% [8]. 3. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted as having strong performance and growth potential [5][13]. - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks like Yancoal Energy, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控 Coal Industry, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][13]. 4. Price Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the price of thermal coal at the port has increased by 22 yuan/ton week-on-week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.479 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.78% [8]. 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal sector is entering a new upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and potential for price increases due to seasonal demand [8][9]. - The upcoming quarterly reports from major coal companies are expected to confirm the industry's recovery and upward trend in profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in high-quality core stocks [5][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that stabilizing coal prices is crucial for reversing the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with a noted correlation between coal prices and PPI [5]. - It highlights that the coal industry may still be in a "golden era" due to energy transformation demands and strict production capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies [5]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will experience fluctuations but trend upwards, with a focus on quality stocks as primary investment targets [5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of October 24, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 770 CNY/ton, up 2.9% week-on-week [3][28]. - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.479 million tons, down 4.3% week-on-week and 5.7% year-on-year [3][36]. - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at power plants, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [3][36]. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,760 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.9% [4][65]. - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 761,000 tons, down 2.3% week-on-week [4][64]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in coking coal inventory levels across various regions [4][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6]. - It also suggests looking at companies with production growth potential that can benefit from the coal price cycle, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6]. - Companies with global resource scarcity attributes and those involved in coal-electricity integration models are highlighted as potential investment targets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "overproduction check" policy in the coal industry has led to a significant supply-side contraction, which is expected to stabilize and potentially increase coal prices in the long term [1][6]. Group 1: Supply-Side Policy Impact - The "overproduction check" initiated by the National Energy Administration on July 10, 2025, has resulted in a notable decrease in domestic raw coal production, with year-on-year declines of -3.8% and -3.2% in July and August respectively [1]. - The cumulative supply-demand surplus has decreased sharply from 96.29 million tons in the first half of the year to 14.96 million tons by the end of August 2025 [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton by September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Performance - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q3 2025 was reported at 672 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5% [2]. - The long-term contract price for thermal coal showed a slight decline of -0.7% in Q3, but this is not expected to have a significant negative impact due to the recovery of contract fulfillment rates [2]. - The price of coking coal saw a substantial increase, with the average price for main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1562 CNY/ton, up 18.8% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 3: Production and Cost Management - The overall production of listed coal companies remains within approved capacity limits, with minor overproduction expected to have limited impact on performance [3]. - Cost control has become a key strategy for coal companies in response to declining prices, with significant reductions in labor, material, and safety production costs observed in Q2 2025 [4]. - As coal prices rebound in Q3, it is anticipated that companies will maintain their cost levels rather than pursue further reductions [4]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand and Future Outlook - Despite September typically being a low-demand season for coal, the supply-side contraction is expected to keep prices stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% in September [6]. - The winter season is projected to see stronger demand for heating coal, which, combined with ongoing supply-side policies, may lead to a tighter coal supply and sustained high prices [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include stable large-scale thermal coal producers such as China Shenhua (601088), China Coal Energy (601898), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) [7]. - High-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001) are also recommended for potential investment [7]. - Quality coking coal companies such as Huaibei Mining (600985) and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal (601666) are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [7].