股票代码：600985 股票简称：淮北矿业 编号：临 2025—018 淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划的进展公告 二、增持计划的主要内容 增持计划：淮北矿业控股股份有限公司（下称"公司"）控股股东淮北矿 业（集团）有限责任公司（下称"淮北矿业集团"）计划自 2024 年 12 月 6 日起 6 个月内，通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价方式增持公司股份，本次增 持总金额为 3 亿元至 5 亿元人民币（含本数，下称"本次增持计划"）。 增持计划的实施进展：2024 年 12 月 6 日至 2025 年 4 月 8 日期间，淮北 矿业集团通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价方式累计增持公司 A 股股份 14,854,991 股，增持金额 202,160,953.83 元（不含手续费）。 相关风险提示：本次增持计划可能存在因资本市场情况发生变化或目前无 法预判的其他风险因素导致增持计划的实施无法达到预期的风险。增持计划实施 过程中如出现上述风险情形，公司将及时履行信息披露义务。 一、增持主体的基本情况 （一）增持主体：公司控股股东淮北矿业集团。 （二）本次增持前增持主体及其一致行动人持股数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.369 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a decline of 22.0%. The net profit for Q4 2024 was 716 million yuan, down 450 million yuan year-on-year and down 488 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The cash dividend declared is 2.02 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.6%, which is a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Based on the closing price on March 28, the dividend yield is 5.7% [2][6] - The company anticipates a multi-point growth driven by increased coal production, improvements in chemical products, coal power advancements, and the establishment of non-coal mines. The commitment to dividends enhances the long-term value [2][6] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.33 billion, 4.03 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.7x, 8.9x, and 8.7x based on the closing price on March 28. The expected dividend yields for the same years are 3.9%, 4.7%, and 4.8% [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, coal production and sales decreased, with production at 4.88 million tons and sales at 3.49 million tons, down 6.6% and 13.6% year-on-year, respectively. The average selling price for coal in Q4 was 1,052 yuan per ton, up 2.5% year-on-year [11] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 65.875 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 12.145 billion yuan, representing a gross margin of 18% [17] Coal and Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment faced challenges, with Q4 2024 ethanol prices declining, impacting profitability. The company’s focus on increasing the production of ethanol and other chemical projects is expected to improve chemical profitability in the long term [11] - The company plans to enhance its coal production capacity with the expected resumption of operations at the Xinhu Mine and the completion of the Tao Hutu Mine by the end of 2025 [11] Dividend Policy - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35%, which is expected to enhance the bottom-line expectations for dividends [11]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 65.7 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.86 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.07 billion yuan, a significant decline of 49.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 38.6% year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The coal business revenue for 2024 was 16.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 8.4 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [2] - The company’s coal production for 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decline of 6.46% year-on-year, and coal sales were 15.37 million tons, down 13.82% year-on-year [2] Price and Cost Dynamics - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 553 yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the coal price was 1,052 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, with a cost of 538 yuan per ton, up 11.6% year-on-year [2] Chemical Segment Performance - The company produced and sold 370,000 tons of anhydrous ethanol in 2024, contributing 1.8 billion yuan in revenue, with a selling price of 4,999 yuan per ton [3] - The production and sales of coke were 3.55 million tons and 3.52 million tons respectively, with a selling price of 1,961 yuan per ton, down 15.85% year-on-year [3] Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing coal and electricity projects, including the 8 million tons power coal project expected to be completed by the end of 2025, and has secured mining permits for new coal mines [4] - Non-coal business initiatives include the establishment of seven limestone mines, increasing limestone resource capacity to 27.4 million tons per year, and the rapid progress of a 2×660MW supercritical power generation unit [4] Dividend and Profit Forecast - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan per share, accounting for 41.6% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with a dividend yield of 5.7% based on the closing price on March 28 [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 63.6 billion yuan, 66.3 billion yuan, and 68.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.6 billion yuan, 3.98 billion yuan, and 4.61 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company [12] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from deepening integrated operations and potential growth in dividends [4] - Despite a decline in revenue and profit, the company is focusing on cost control and new profit growth points [4][12] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.43% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.84 yuan, a decrease of 26.69% [1][8] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 9.063 billion yuan, down 30.45% year-on-year [1] Coal and Coke Segment Summary - The coal and coke segment faced price declines due to weak downstream demand and increased imports, with average prices for various coal types down by approximately 11.44% to 15.41% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a coal production volume of 20.553 million tons and sales of 15.367 million tons, representing year-on-year changes of -6.46% and -13.82% respectively [2] - The average selling price of coal was 1,100.38 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 547.61 yuan per ton, reflecting year-on-year changes of -5.12% and -3.49% [2] Chemical Segment Summary - The chemical segment continued to be impacted by cost pressures and declining prices, resulting in a gross loss [3] - The company produced 3.5465 million tons of coke, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a selling price of 1,961.04 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15.85% [3] - The methanol production was 407,700 tons, down 22.74%, with sales of 198,400 tons, down 61.75% [3] Future Outlook - The company is advancing new projects, including a 600,000-ton anhydrous ethanol project, which is expected to contribute positively to future revenues [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.020 billion yuan, which represents 41.60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.53, 1.90, and 1.95 yuan, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 8.5, 6.9, and 6.7 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from deepening integrated operations and has potential for both growth and dividends [1][6] - The coal and coke industry has faced price declines due to weak downstream demand and increased imports, impacting the company's performance [4][5] - The company has implemented effective cost control strategies, which have helped maintain its gross margin despite market challenges [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 657.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 48.55 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year [2][10] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 90.63 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 30.45% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 1100.38 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 547.61 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% and 3.49% respectively [4][5] Production and Sales Data - The company produced 2,055.30 million tons of commodity coal and sold 1,536.69 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year changes of -6.46% and -13.82% respectively [4] - The company’s coke production was 3.55 million tons, with a sales volume of 3.52 million tons, both down approximately 6% year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 20.20 billion yuan, which is 41.60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.53, 1.90, and 1.95 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.5, 6.9, and 6.7 [8][10]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Year**: 2024 - **Key Financials**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 4.855 billion yuan, a decrease of 22% year-on-year [3] - Total coal production: 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons year-on-year [3] - Coal sales volume: 15.37 million tons, a decrease of 2.46 million tons year-on-year [3] - Ethanol production: 370,000 tons, sales volume: 360,000 tons [3] Industry Insights - **Coal Market**: - Current main coking coal price: approximately 1,510 yuan/ton, with a net profit of about 210 yuan per ton [7][8] - Power coal profit: around 100 yuan per ton, with stable long-term contract prices due to high electricity demand in Anhui province [9] - **Ethanol Market**: - Ethanol profitability was strong in August and September last year, with a profit of approximately 70 million yuan, but has since stabilized due to falling corn prices [3] - Expected ethanol profit for the year: 300 to 400 million yuan [3][16] Key Strategies and Plans - **Cost Control**: - Plans to reduce costs through automation, restoring production, and releasing low-cost capacity [5] - No new expense items expected this year, with potential reductions [5] - **Production Recovery**: - Happiness Holdings is undergoing comprehensive equipment repairs, with normal production expected to resume in Q3 [6] - Production target for Happiness Holdings: 600,000 to 1 million tons [6] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Total capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be around 6 billion yuan, focusing on projects like the Taohutu power plant [11][19] - Major projects expected to be operational by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [12] Financial Outlook - **Dividends**: - Dividend ratio is expected to decrease due to new projects and resource reserve plans, but future dividend amounts and ratios are not in jeopardy [14] - **Profitability Projections**: - Anticipated that 2025 Q2 will be the most challenging period, but market pressures are easing [8] - LNG market profits are optimistic, with a profit of approximately 1 yuan per cubic meter, totaling 253 million yuan [13] Additional Considerations - **Trade Business**: - The trading business has negatively impacted overall asset ROE, with plans to gradually divest non-essential trading operations [4] - **Future Production Goals**: - New projects expected to add nearly 17 million tons of capacity, with significant releases expected by the end of the year [17][18]

盈利预测与估值 考虑到焦煤价格趋弱，我们下调2025 年盈利41%至33.5 亿元，引入2026年盈利35 亿元，现价对应2025- 26 年P/E 为11x、10x；公司为优质主焦煤龙头，中长期增量空间明确，我们维持跑赢行业评级，考虑估 值轮动至2025 年，我们下调目标价21%至15 元，目标价对应2025-26 年P/E 为12x、11.5x，隐含13%上 行空间。 2024 年业绩低于我们及市场预期 公司公布2024 业绩：营业收入657 亿元，同比-10%，归母净利润48.6 亿元，同比-22%，加权平均ROE 为12%；4Q24 收入91 亿元，归母净利润7.2 亿元，同比-39%，环比-41%，主要系整体产品价格走弱。 点评：1、煤炭业务：产销量：2024 年商品煤产量、销量（不含内销，下同）为2,055/1,537万吨，分别 同比-6%/-14%，主要系安监趋严+信湖煤矿停产；单4Q 实现商品煤产量488 万吨，同比-7%/环比-9%， 销量349 万吨，同比-14%/环比-9%，销量走弱主要系内销动力煤增多。价格层面：2024 年全年主焦煤 长协价逐步下调，全年均价（含内销）为1,075 元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in production and sales, with chemical operations contributing to profit growth [3][5] - The coal mining segment is facing challenges with both volume and price declines, but the new Taohutu coal mine is anticipated to provide a new profit growth point by the end of 2025 [5][6] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio to 35% for the years 2025-2027, with a projected dividend yield of 5.40% for 2024 [5][6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.49% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year [5][6] - The coal production for 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 6.46% year-on-year, with sales volume down 13.82% [5][6] - The average price of coal was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 553 yuan, down 6.68% [5][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 1.80 yuan, a decrease of 26.69% year-on-year [5][6] Future Projections - The company’s projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 60.152 billion yuan, 62.960 billion yuan, and 64.518 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 3.381 billion yuan, 4.178 billion yuan, and 4.513 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.26 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.68 yuan, respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) [7] Core Views - The company is expected to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan per share in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.6%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on March 27 [4] - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years (2025-2027), increasing the minimum dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35% [4] - Due to the decline in thermal coal and coking coal prices, the earnings forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 3.4 billion, 4 billion, and 4.4 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.9, 9.4, and 8.5 times [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating income of 65.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw an operating income of 9.089 billion yuan, a decline of 49.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 716 million yuan, down 38.58% year-on-year [1] Coal Business - The company's coal production in 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, while coal sales were 15.37 million tons, down 13.8% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, with a cost of 553 yuan per ton, down 6.7% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 548 yuan per ton, down 3.5% year-on-year [2] Coking and Chemical Business - The coking segment reported a loss of 990 million yuan in 2024, an increase in loss of 80 million yuan compared to 2023 [3] - The ethanol segment reduced its loss to 136 million yuan in 2024, down 265 million yuan from 2023, with expectations of turning profitable in 2025 as capacity utilization improves [3] - The civil explosives segment achieved a profit of 359 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 76 million yuan compared to 2023, with significant capacity expansion expected to enhance future profitability [3] Growth Prospects - The company is accelerating the construction of the Tao Hutu mine to ensure completion by the end of 2025 and is also advancing the construction of a significant coal-fired power generation project in Anhui [4] - The chemical industry is focusing on stabilizing ethanol production and advancing various projects to ensure timely completion and production [4] - The company is actively seeking additional wind power resources to maximize the utilization of its renewable energy projects [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to increase the minimum dividend payout ratio to 35% for the years 2025-2027, with a proposed dividend of 0.75 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a total payout of 2.020 billion yuan [2]. - The coal production and sales volumes decreased in 2024, with a production of 20.553 million tons, down 6.5% year-on-year, and sales of 15.367 million tons, down 13.8% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 9.066 billion yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 49.2%, and a net profit of 716 million yuan, down 38.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal business's gross profit margin improved to 49.8%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in coal prices and sales [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend payout ratio of 41.6% for 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on March 27, 2025 [2]. Coal and Chemical Business - The coal chemical business saw a decline in gross profit margin to 19.34%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, with significant drops in production and sales of coke and methanol [4]. - The company has initiated production of a 600,000-ton ethanol project, which is the largest single-series production facility globally [4]. Future Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.924 billion yuan, 2.476 billion yuan, and 3.384 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 1.26 yuan [5][6].