轮胎 赛轮轮胎（601058.SH） 买入-B(维持) Q2 业绩受关税和税率影响短期承压，预计 Q3 成本明显改善 2025 年 8 月 28 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 8 月 26 日，公司发布《2025 半年度报告》。2025H1，实现营业总收入 175.9 亿元，同比+16.1%；归母净利润 18.3 亿元，同比-14.9%；扣非归母净 利润 18.3 亿元，同比-11.1%。其中，2025Q2 公司实现营业总收入 91.8 亿元， 同环比分别+16.8%/+9.1%；归母净利润 7.9 亿元，同环比分别-29.1%/-23.7%； 扣非后归母净利润 8.2 亿元，同环比分别-21.2%/-18.8%。 事件点评 市场数据：2025 年 8 月 28 日 收盘价（元）： 14.30 年内最高/最低（元）： 17.60/11.37 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 32.88/32.88 流通 A 股市值（亿）： 470.20 总市值（亿）： 470.20 基础数据：2025 年 6 月 30 日 基本每股收益(元)： 0.56 摊薄每股收益(元)： 0.56 公司轮胎销量增速远超行 ...

Group 1: Changan Automobile (000625) - In H1 2025, Changan Automobile achieved revenue of 72.691 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.291 billion yuan, down 19.09%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 26.36% to 1.477 billion yuan [6][7] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 939 million yuan, a decrease of 43.93% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 693 million yuan, down 34.40% year-on-year. Revenue for the quarter was 38.531 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 2.94% quarter-on-quarter but a 12.79% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to launch three new models in Q4 2025, with a clear strategy for global expansion, aiming for overseas sales of 1 million vehicles by the end of the year [8][9] Group 2: Sailun Tire (601058) - In H1 2025, Sailun Tire achieved revenue of 17.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.05%, but the net profit decreased by 14.90% to 1.831 billion yuan. In Q2 2025, revenue was 9.175 billion yuan, up 16.76% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 29.11% to 792 million yuan [10][11] - The company benefited from overseas market expansion, with tire production reaching 40.6 million units in H1 2025, a 14.66% increase year-on-year, and sales of 39.14 million units, up 13.32% [11] - Sailun Tire is focusing on enhancing its international influence through increased R&D investment and product innovation, with a notable presence in the global tire brand value rankings [11][12] Group 3: Xinjieneng (605111) - In H1 2025, Xinjieneng reported revenue of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, and a net profit of 235 million yuan, up 8.03%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 207 million yuan, down 3.22% [14][15] - The SGT MOS product line's revenue share increased to 45.21%, indicating strong market competitiveness and application in various strategic fields [16] - The company is focusing on emerging markets such as automotive electronics, AI servers, and robotics, with significant growth in these areas expected [17] Group 4: Lizhu Group (000513) - In H1 2025, Lizhu Group achieved revenue of 6.272 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.17%, while net profit increased by 9.40% to 1.281 billion yuan. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.258 billion yuan, up 8.91% [22][23] - The company is experiencing growth in its chemical preparation segment, with a focus on new product launches and improved operational efficiency [23][24] - Multiple products are entering the harvest phase, contributing to the overall positive performance [24] Group 5: Anhui Heli (600761) - In H1 2025, Anhui Heli reported revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.18%, with net profit reaching 796 million yuan, down 4.60%. Overseas revenue was 4.016 billion yuan, up 15.20% [27][28] - The company is enhancing its international presence with a new overseas manufacturing facility and a strong network of over 300 overseas agents [28] - Anhui Heli is focusing on electric and intelligent logistics solutions, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and strategic partnerships in the logistics sector [29][30] Group 6: Domestic Industrial Profit Data - In July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.8% [32][33] - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" policy is affecting profit structures across various sectors, with upstream raw material manufacturing seeing a recovery in profit margins [34] - Inventory levels are decreasing, with nominal inventory growth slowing to 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in production and a passive consumption of inventory [35] Group 7: Mechanical Equipment Industry - In July 2025, the overall sales of forklifts reached 118,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with both domestic and overseas sales showing double-digit growth [36][37] - The growth in forklift demand is linked to improvements in manufacturing and logistics sectors, with positive macroeconomic indicators supporting future sales [38] - Companies like Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group are expanding their global presence and enhancing their product offerings in intelligent logistics [39][40]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 汽车零部件 短期业绩承压， 三季度盈利有望回升 ——赛轮轮胎 25H1 点评 报告导读 公司发布 2025中报，实现营收 175.87亿元，同比增 16.05%，归母净利润 18.31亿元， 同比降 14.90%。其中 25Q2 单季度营收 91.75 亿元，同比增 16.76%，环比增 9.08%； 归母净利润 7.92 亿元，同比降 29.11%，环比降 23.70%，业绩符合此前预告。 投资要点 ❑ 25H1 销量稳健增长，受美国关税冲击业绩有所下滑 25H1 公司轮胎产量 4060 万条，同比增 14.7%，销量 3914 万条，同比增 13.3%。 单季度看，25Q2 公司轮胎销量 1977 万条，同比增 10.1%，环比增 2.0%；Q2 公 司轮胎均价 445.8 元/条，同比增 5.8%，环比增 6.8%，主要系产品结构变化影 响。原材料方面 Q2 公司天然橡胶、合成橡胶、炭黑、钢丝帘线四项主要原材料 的综合采购价格同比增长 0.82%，环比下降 4.64%。25Q2 公司毛利率 24.35%， 同比降5.42pct，环比降0.39pct；净利率8.93%，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in its 2025 H1 financial results, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst rising costs and international trade barriers [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2025 H1, the company achieved revenue of 17.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.05%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.90% [1]. - The gross margin was 24.53%, down 4.24 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 10.70%, down 3.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 9.175 billion yuan, up 16.76% year-on-year and 9.08% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit fell to 792 million yuan, down 29.11% year-on-year and 23.70% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Sales - The company achieved record high tire production and sales in Q2 2025, with production and sales volumes of 20.7172 million and 19.7710 million tires, respectively, representing increases of 14.09% and 10.07% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic revenue was 3.980 billion yuan, up 9.21% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 13.413 billion yuan, an increase of 18.72% year-on-year [2]. Market Challenges - The company faced pressure from international trade barriers, including expanded tariffs by the U.S. and anti-dumping investigations by the EU, which negatively impacted profit margins [2]. - The overall price of key raw materials increased by 0.82% year-on-year, despite a decline in prices during Q2 for natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black [2]. Global Expansion Strategy - The company is enhancing its global footprint, with planned production capacities in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Egypt, totaling 9.75 million all-steel radial tires and 49 million semi-steel radial tires annually [3]. - Investments in new production facilities are aimed at improving supply chain responsiveness and accelerating global expansion [3]. Product Development - The company is focusing on high-end product development, including the "Liquid Gold Tire," which has overcome significant technical challenges, enhancing its competitive edge [4]. - The company’s all-steel and semi-steel tires have received positive market feedback, contributing to record sales in both domestic and international markets [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 36.640 billion, 41.490 billion, and 45.940 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 13.2%, and 10.7% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.272 billion, 5.168 billion, and 5.815 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 5.2%, 21.0%, and 12.5% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on profitability in Q2 2025 due to trade disruptions and high raw material costs, with a net profit decline of 14.90% year-on-year [7] - Despite challenges, the company achieved significant growth in overseas markets, with tire production increasing by 14.66% and sales by 13.32% in H1 2025 [7] - The company is enhancing its international brand influence through increased R&D investment and innovative product offerings [7] - The construction of overseas production bases is progressing well, which is expected to improve the company's global supply chain responsiveness [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.26, 1.46, and 1.68 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.42x, 9.80x, and 8.55x [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.587 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.05%, while net profit was 1.831 billion CNY, down 14.90% [7] - Q2 2025 revenue reached 9.175 billion CNY, up 16.76%, but net profit fell to 792 million CNY, a decrease of 29.11% [7] Production and Sales - The company produced 40.6 million tires in H1 2025, marking a 14.66% increase, and sold 39.14 million tires, up 13.32% [7] - Overseas revenue reached 13.413 billion CNY, growing 18.72% year-on-year, with the Cambodian subsidiary showing a remarkable 70.44% increase [7] Research and Development - R&D expenses in H1 2025 were 537 million CNY, a 14.67% increase, focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green product innovations [7] International Expansion - The company is advancing its overseas production projects in Indonesia and Mexico, with plans for new bases in Egypt and Shenyang [7] - The planned production capacity includes 31.55 million all-steel radial tires and 10.9 million semi-steel radial tires annually [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in the external operating environment and profitability pressures [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9% [1] - The adjusted net profit was also 1.83 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.18 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 16.8% and 9.1%, respectively [1] - The net profit for Q2 was 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 29.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 23.7% [1] Market Environment - The external operating environment faced challenges in the first half of 2025, impacting profitability [2] - Global tire demand saw a slight increase, with the company’s tire production and sales reaching 40.6 million and 39.14 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 15% and 13% [2] - Key raw material prices decreased in Q2, with natural rubber, butadiene rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, and carbon black prices dropping by 14%, 16%, 17%, and 8% respectively [2] - The overall procurement price of major raw materials fell by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Trade tensions escalated, with the U.S. expanding tariffs and the EU initiating anti-dumping investigations on tires from China, adding to industry challenges [2] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its global capacity layout with investments in Egypt and the acquisition of Bridgestone's Shenyang factory [3] - The Egypt project aims for an annual production capacity of 3.6 million radial tires, with a total investment of approximately 290 million USD and an 18-month construction period [3] - The acquisition of the Shenyang factory, previously Bridgestone, will undergo expansion to achieve an annual capacity of 3.3 million steel radial tires and 20,000 tons of non-road tires, with a total investment of about 1.7 billion yuan and an 18-month construction period [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 36.96 billion, 44.70 billion, and 53.52 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 20.9%, and 19.7% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 4.14 billion, 5.05 billion, and 6.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 22.0%, and 19.5% respectively [4] - Based on the closing price on August 25, the corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 11, 9, and 7 times [4]

每经记者|赵李南 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，赛轮轮胎的这份半年报揭示了一幅引人深思的财务图景：一边是净利润同比下滑近15%，一边却宣布大手笔中期分红近5亿元；沈阳工厂半年亏损5.6亿元，却计划 8月26日，二级市场对赛轮轮胎的半年报反应积极，赛轮轮胎股价当天上涨5.67%。 半年报显示，今年上半年，赛轮轮胎实现营业收入175.9亿元，较去年同期增长16.05%。 然而，与营业收入的增长形成反差的是，公司的盈利能力却有所下降。报告期内，公司归属于上市公司股东的净利润为18.3亿元，同比下降14.90%。 图片来源：Wind 在此前的发布的业绩预告中，赛轮轮胎称，业绩下滑的主要原因是受到国际贸易壁垒、原材料价格及市场环境等因素影响，公司报告期的毛利率同比有所下降。 8月25日，轮胎行业巨头赛轮轮胎（601058.SH，股价14.35元，市值471.84亿元）发布2025年半年度报告（以下简称"半年报"）。 此前，赛轮轮胎在2025年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案中表示，2025年，公司将综合考虑企业自身盈利水平、资金支出安排，兼顾投资者回报和公司发展，健全公司常态化分红机制，通过持续 值得注意的是，从现金流状况看 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sailun Tire is making a significant investment of 1.701 billion yuan to expand its production capacity in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, aiming to enhance its market position and global competitiveness through capacity expansion and product structure optimization [1][2]. Investment and Expansion - The investment will be used for the "Sailun New Peace Annual Production of 3.3 million all-steel radial tires and 20,000 non-road tires project" [1][2]. - The project involves upgrading and expanding the existing facilities of the recently acquired Sailun New Peace (Shenyang) Tire Co., Ltd., rather than building a new factory, which reduces investment costs and shortens the construction period [2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.587 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.831 billion yuan, with tire sales reaching 39.1449 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.32% [3]. - The company’s revenue and net profit for the years 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 21.902 billion yuan, 25.978 billion yuan, and 31.802 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.332 billion yuan, 3.091 billion yuan, and 4.063 billion yuan, respectively, indicating stable growth [2]. Globalization Strategy - Sailun Tire, established in 2002, is the first privately-owned tire company listed on A-shares and has expanded its production bases in various countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, and Indonesia, covering over 180 countries and regions globally [4]. - The company is also planning to invest 291 million USD in Egypt for a project to produce 3.6 million radial tires annually, which is a strategic move to enhance its global competitiveness and market reach [4]. Research and Development - In the first half of 2025, the company spent 537 million yuan on R&D, a year-on-year increase of 14.67%, establishing a robust R&D system for semi-steel, all-steel, and non-road tires [6]. - The company has developed proprietary technologies, including the "liquid gold tire," which enhances its product competitiveness [6]. Industry Context - The global tire industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with foreign giants exiting low-end production and shifting towards high-end and intelligent manufacturing [5]. - Sailun Tire is increasing its investment in technology and global expansion to capture market share and position itself among the top players in the global market [5].

2025 年 08 月 26 日 赛轮轮胎 (601058) ——Q2 产销再创新高，盈利受关税、销售研发及所得税费用 影响，有所下滑 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | zhaowq@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 31,802 | 17,587 | 37,956 | 42,682 | 44,713 | | 同比增长率（%） | 22.4 | 16.1 | 19.3 | 12.5 | 4.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,063 | 1,831 | 4,069 | 4,793 | 5,276 | | 同比增长率（%） | 31.4 | -14.9 | 0.2 | 17.8 | 10.1 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.26 | 0.56 | 1.24 | 1.46 | 1.60 | | 毛利率（%） | 27.6 | 24.5 | 25.9 | 25.6 ...

信达证券研报指出，赛轮轮胎2025年上半年实现归母净利润18.31亿元，同比-14.90%，2025Q2实现归母 净利润7.92亿元，同比-29.16%，环比-23.77%。产能释放有力支撑业绩，Q2产销量与收入均创新高。截 至2025半年报，公司在海外的越南、柬埔寨、印尼、墨西哥和埃及共规划年生产975万条全钢子午胎、 4,900万条半钢子午胎和13.7万吨非公路轮胎的生产能力，是目前海外布局产能规模最大的中国轮胎企 业。认为公司持续加深全球化产能布局是未来业绩增长的核心动力，全球化的产能布局有望助推公司在 全球市场更快速更稳健的成长。在渠道方面，公司创新性搭建了直营/合资公司数字化系统，实现20余 家子公司全业务链贯通，并与部分代理商实现数据对接，构建"客户-渠道-仓储-物流"四位一体的高效协 同网络。我们认为这能使得渠道端可以更顺畅传导产品升级理念，助力公司长期品牌力提升。维持"买 入"评级。 ...