机构观点 2月4日，港股股指早盘震荡走低，午后股指集体拉升高位窄幅震荡，截止收盘，恒指指数上涨12.55 点，涨幅0.05%报26847.32点，恒生科技指数下跌100.82点，跌幅1.84%报5366.44点，国企指数下跌4.73 点，跌幅0.05%报9048.38点。 盘面上，芯片股走低，上海复旦跌超5%，华虹半导体跌近5%，兆易创新跌超3%，中芯国际跌超2%。 科网股低迷，腾讯控股跌近4%，哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度集团跌近3%。煤炭股涨幅居前，兖矿能源涨超 10%，中国神华涨超5%。内房股走高，世茂集团涨超14%，融创中国涨超8%，万科企业涨超6%，越秀 地产涨超6%。 盘面情况 盘面上，各板块表现可谓"冰火两重天"。 在科技领域，企业合作与业务进展亮点频出。英诺赛科旗下相关产品成功完成在谷歌公司相关AI硬件 平台的重要设计导入，并签订合规供货协议，这一突破为其在AI硬件市场站稳脚跟奠定了坚实基础。 英矽智能也不甘示弱，获美纳里尼3900万港元里程碑付款，且合作项目MEN2501完成首例患者给药， 标志着其在医药科技研发上迈出了重要一步。数盟资本同样有新动作，其迪拜附属公司与一间澳门分销 商签订总额为30 ...

Market Overview - On February 4, the A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1]. Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic concept showed strong performance, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limits. The airport and shipping sectors also performed well, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines reaching their daily limits. The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting their daily limits. The hydrogen energy concept surged, with Jingcheng Co. and Zhiyuan New Energy reaching their daily limits [4]. - The coal sector experienced a significant surge, with major coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy both hitting their daily limits. Other stocks such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Meijin Energy also reached their daily limits, while Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, Shanxi Coal International, Xinji Energy, and China Shenhua followed suit [4]. Coal Supply Impact - Reports indicate that the Indonesian government has proposed a significant production cut, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners. China is the largest importer of Indonesian coal, with an expected import of 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of Indonesia's total exports. This suspension is projected to impact China's thermal coal supply by 5.3%, increasing inventory pressure on power plants in Southeast China. Additionally, there are reports of rising coal prices domestically [6]. Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector opened with a rebound but later turned negative, with companies like Zijin Mining and Hunan Gold experiencing declines. The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, with a latest premium rate of 64.6%. After significant drops on January 30 and February 2, spot gold prices rebounded to over $5000, while spot silver reached $88 per ounce [7]. - Market sentiment remains volatile, with speculative funds showing significant movement. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to pose risks. Overall, the precious metals market is influenced heavily by market emotions, with short-term volatility risks to be monitored, while long-term trends remain optimistic [7]. Individual Stock Highlights - Guizhou Moutai's stock rose over 2%, reaching a price above 1500 yuan for the first time since September 15, 2025 [8]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2%, with many tech stocks in Hong Kong experiencing declines. Notable drops included Bilibili down over 4%, Tencent Holdings down over 3%, and other companies like Baidu, Lenovo, NetEase, Meituan, and Xiaomi all falling over 2% [9]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective downturn, with Bitcoin experiencing a high-level correction of nearly 40% [10].

Core Insights - The main focus of the news is the significant inflow of capital into specific stocks, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in these companies and their respective industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflow - Kunlun Wanwei saw a capital inflow of 795 million yuan with a price increase of 5.82% [2] - Shunhao Co. experienced a capital inflow of 651 million yuan and a price increase of 9.98% [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (宁德时代) had a capital inflow of 561 million yuan with a price increase of 1.21% [2] - Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) attracted 551 million yuan in capital inflow and increased by 1.3% [2] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) saw a capital inflow of 430 million yuan with a notable increase of 10.01% [2] - Other notable stocks include Shanzhi Gaoke, China Satellite, and China Shipbuilding, each with significant capital inflows and price increases [1][2][3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The internet services sector, represented by Kunlun Wanwei, is showing strong investor confidence [2] - The packaging materials industry, highlighted by Shunhao Co., is also attracting significant capital [2] - The battery industry, represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology, continues to draw investor interest despite a modest price increase [2] - The coal industry, with companies like Yanzhou Coal and Meijin Energy, is experiencing substantial capital inflows, indicating a potential resurgence [2][3] - The aerospace and wind energy sectors, represented by China Satellite and China Shipbuilding, are also gaining traction among investors [1][2][3]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: China Shenhua Energy Company - **Industry**: Energy and Mining Key Points and Arguments Asset Acquisition Update - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accepted the asset acquisition application on January 30, 2026, with an expedited review process expected to complete by mid-2026 [2][5] - The company aims to finalize the asset acquisition and consolidation in the first half of 2026 [2][5] Asset Details - The acquisition includes coal, coal power, and coal chemical assets, with coal reserves of 20.5 billion tons and recoverable reserves of 13 billion tons [9][10] - The operational capacity is approximately 20 million tons of coal and 13.23 million kilowatts of power generation capacity [9][10] - Capital expenditure for these projects is estimated at around 80 billion yuan over the next five years [10] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was higher than expected, but the annual forecast indicates a potential decrease of 2-3 billion yuan due to non-recurring expenses [12][13] - The company experienced a 1.7% decline in coal production in 2025, primarily due to land acquisition delays in the eastern Mongolia region [14] Production and Sales Outlook - The production plan for 2026 is still under review, with expectations of maintaining a stable production level compared to 2025 [17] - The company has a balanced production state in the Shendong mining area, with minor fluctuations due to resource depletion [16] Pricing and Revenue - The average selling price of electricity decreased by 4.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations of continued downward pressure on prices in 2026 [33][34] - Capacity fees are projected to increase from 50% to 70%, which will positively impact profit stability and cost compensation [35][36] Capital Expenditure Plans - The capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be lower than planned due to project delays and regulatory approvals [51][52] - Future capital expenditures are anticipated to remain stable, with significant investments in new coal mining projects and upgrades to existing facilities [55][57] Transportation and Logistics - The transportation segment saw a positive performance in the second half of 2025, attributed to increased external coal purchases [48][49] - Overall transportation prices remained stable, with minor adjustments based on government regulations [49] Regulatory Environment - The approval process for coal mines is decentralized, with significant authority resting at the provincial level, affecting production capacity management [29][30] Conclusion - The company is focused on completing the asset acquisition and maintaining stable production levels while navigating regulatory challenges and market pressures. Future capital expenditures will be strategically allocated to enhance operational efficiency and expand capacity.

恒指转涨，中国神华涨超4%，中国海洋石油涨超2%。 ...

广发证券认为，近期，动力煤日耗维持中高位，1月下旬至2月上旬高位有望继续消化，而临近春节供应 总体收窄，预计煤价有望延续整体稳定。焦炭首轮提涨顺利落地，下游采购情绪整体向好，预计焦炭价 格有望稳中有升。该行认为，进入26年，预计供应端增速较前期大幅下降，同时考虑到25年需求受到制 约26年也有较大改善空间，预计煤价中枢有望稳步回升。 消息面上，据证券时报报道，近日，焦炭年内首轮调涨落地。据卓创资讯（301299）数据，唐山市场主 流钢厂对湿熄焦炭价格上调50元/吨、干熄焦上调55元/吨，2026年1月30日零时起执行。邢台、天津地 区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭上调50元/吨、干熄焦炭上调55元/吨，2026年1月30日零点执行。石家庄地区个 别钢厂对湿熄焦炭上调50元/吨、干熄焦炭上调55元/吨，2026年1月30日零点执行。 煤炭股早盘走高，截至发稿，兖矿能源（600188）(01171)涨6.67%，报11.98港元；兖煤澳大利亚 (03668)涨5.84%，报33.34港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨4.19%，报11.43港元；力量发展(01277) 涨4%，报1.82港元；中国神华（60108 ...

Group 1 - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 0.19% on February 3, with Haohua Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the coal mining sector showed varied performance, with Jiangte Equipment rising by 6.93% and China Shenhua falling by 1.52% [2] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 400 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 301 million yuan [2] - Major funds showed a mixed trend, with Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industries receiving a net inflow of 42.73 million yuan, while Jiangte Equipment faced a net outflow of 52.98 million yuan [3] - Retail investors favored stocks like SuNeng Co., which had a net inflow of 357.83 million yuan, despite overall sector challenges [3]

中金公司研报指出，中国神华预告2025年A股业绩同比减少11.3%~2.3%。判断业绩下滑可能主要系煤价 和电价下跌、煤炭销量下滑所致。往前看，该行预期电价下跌、新能源发电继续增加，或拖累公司电力 业务表现，不过在容量电价补偿有望增加、增量电力机组有望投产下，公司电力业务盈利仍有一定韧 性。根据公司公告，公司千亿煤炭&电力资产收购相关事项已通过股东大会表决，往前看我们预期公司 煤炭资源有望增厚、电力机组容量有望增加，公司煤电一体化的业务优势和行业头部地位有望进一步巩 固。由于煤价等假设调整，下调A股2025/26E盈利2%/7%至522/502亿元，下调H股2025/26E盈利5%/10% 至538/515亿元。维持A/H股"跑赢行业"评级，下调A/H股目标价7%/4%至43元/43港元。 ...

中银国际发表研报指，中国神华预期2025年净利润按年下跌6.3%至14.7%，到508亿至558亿元，较该行 预测低0.6%至9.5%，亦意味去年第四季盈利按季下降1.5%至35.6%。该行认为，盈利按季下降主要因煤 炭业务计入了更多成本以及销售组合变化，而电力业务则面临煤炭成本上涨、电价下降和利用率降低等 问题。该行维持对其"持有"评级，目标价为42.5港元。 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand dynamics starting in 2026 after a generally loose supply in 2025 [1] Group 1: Coal Sector Review - The coal sector outperformed the market in January, with a cumulative increase of 8.3% year-to-date, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 6.7 percentage points [16] - The coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently at 15.7 times, ranking 5th among all sectors, indicating a relatively high valuation [20][26] - The coal sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 1.51 times, also reflecting a historical high level [24] Group 2: Coal Market Overview - In December, electricity consumption remained flat year-on-year, while coal imports increased by approximately 12% [29] - Domestic coal prices in January showed stability, with power coal prices rising slightly by 2.1% or 14 RMB/ton compared to the end of December [29] - International coal prices saw a notable increase, with Newcastle's 6000 kcal thermal coal price rising by 3.8% to 110.1 USD/ton [45] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Supply - In 2025, domestic coal production increased by 1.2% year-on-year, while coal imports decreased by 9.6% [56] - The total coal production in 2025 reached 483.2 million tons, with significant contributions from Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [56] - The demand for electricity in 2025 grew by 5.0%, with the industrial sector showing varied growth rates [46] Group 4: Key Companies and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the coal sector include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, all rated as "Buy" with robust dividend policies [6][7] - Financial metrics for these companies indicate a favorable outlook, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and attractive valuation ratios [7]