焦煤板块国庆期间去库存。供给端，假期部分矿山检修，蒙煤通关十一期间三大口岸闭关7天，口岸库 存快速去库，节后预计通关加速，海运煤到港高位回落，假期供给环比减量。 浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，三季度蒙煤进口量触底回升，供应链贸易利润亦随着价格反弹实现触 底反弹。 在国内"反内卷"大环境下，铁水产量维持高位，若煤炭行业继续推进"查超产"，有望维持焦煤供需格局 紧平衡，对焦煤价格形成支撑，蒙煤贸易企业利润空间有望修复。 展望四季度，行业整体供需平衡，旺季或出现阶段性供给缺口，若反内卷政策执行力度强化，煤价有望 超预期。 目前板块的政策、煤价以及业绩预期都在改善，未来随着市场风格轮动或政策催化，板块有望出现持续 超额收益。 煤炭板块相关港股： 中国神华（601088）(01088)、中煤能源（601898）(01898)、兖矿能源（600188）(01171)、易大宗 (01733)、兖煤澳大利亚(03668)、中国秦发(00866)等。 中信证券研报称，我们跟踪的样本煤炭上市公司，2025Q3净利润平均环比增长约18%，前三季度同比 降幅约27%，环比而言，焦煤、无烟煤公司业绩预期弹性更大，但动力煤板块贡献 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies based on their performance and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming safety production assessments are expected to lead to a contraction in coal supply, which may support a rebound in coal prices. Since July 2025, the monthly coal output has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, and the anticipated inspections may further tighten supply [1][2]. - The coal price has shown signs of recovery, stabilizing above 700 RMB/ton by the end of September 2025. The report predicts that by the end of the year, coal prices could exceed 900 RMB/ton due to supply constraints and increased demand from the coal chemical sector [2]. - The report highlights several investment opportunities within the sector, particularly focusing on companies with high spot market exposure and those expected to benefit from supply-demand dynamics [2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The safety inspections scheduled for November 2025 are likely to impact coal supply negatively, reinforcing expectations of reduced output. This is particularly relevant as the country transitions into the heating season, which typically sees increased demand [1][2]. - The report notes that the coal chemical sector is poised to benefit from the seasonal demand increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies based on their market positioning and expected performance: 1. **High Spot Market Exposure**: Lu'an Huanneng (潞安环能) is highlighted for its significant elasticity in response to price changes. 2. **Stable Growth Companies**: Jin控煤业 (晋控煤业) and Huayang Co., Ltd. (华阳股份) are recommended for their robust performance. 3. **Recovery in Production**: Shanmei International (山煤国际) is noted for its potential production recovery. 4. **Industry Leaders**: China Shenhua (中国神华), Zhongmei Energy (中煤能源), and Shaanxi Coal (陕西煤业) are recognized for their stable earnings [2][4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32% on October 9, with 23 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals and steel, with increases of 7.60% and 3.38% respectively. The coal industry ranked third in terms of gains, rising by 3.00% [2][3]. Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 19.966 billion yuan. However, 12 sectors saw net inflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a net inflow of 5.361 billion yuan. The construction and decoration sector followed with a 2.17% increase and a net inflow of 1.868 billion yuan [2]. - The sectors with the largest net outflows included non-bank financials, which saw a net outflow of 6.725 billion yuan, and the automotive sector, which had a net outflow of 4.325 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included media, electronics, and banking [2]. Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry saw a 3.00% increase with a net inflow of 301 million yuan. Out of 37 stocks in this sector, 36 rose, and one hit the daily limit. The top stock in terms of net inflow was Yongtai Energy, with an inflow of 111 million yuan, followed by China Shenhua and New Dazhou A, with inflows of 56.399 million yuan and 27.092 million yuan respectively [3][4]. - The coal industry had several stocks with significant net outflows, including Shaanxi Coal, New集 Energy, and Panjiang Coal, with outflows of 61.551 million yuan, 13.266 million yuan, and 9.8342 million yuan respectively [3][4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32% on October 9, with 23 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals and steel, with increases of 7.60% and 3.38% respectively. The coal industry ranked third in terms of gains, rising by 3.00% [1]. Coal Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a net inflow of 301 million yuan, with 36 out of 37 stocks in the sector rising, including one hitting the daily limit. Only one stock declined [1]. - Among the coal stocks, the top net inflow was from Yongtai Energy, with 111 million yuan, followed by China Shenhua and New Dazhou A, with net inflows of approximately 56.4 million yuan and 27.1 million yuan respectively [1]. Key Stocks in Coal Sector - The following table summarizes the performance of key coal stocks: - Yongtai Energy: +4.29%, turnover rate 6.39%, net inflow 110.54 million yuan - China Shenhua: +2.44%, turnover rate 0.26%, net inflow 56.39 million yuan - New Dazhou A: +10.04%, turnover rate 5.91%, net inflow 27.09 million yuan - Shanxi Coking Coal: +3.45%, turnover rate 1.72%, net inflow 26.17 million yuan - Jiangxi Tungsten: +6.61%, turnover rate 3.92%, net inflow 23.90 million yuan [1]. Fund Flow Analysis - In the coal sector, 26 stocks experienced net inflows, with 12 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan. Conversely, the stocks with the highest net outflows included Shaanxi Coal, New集 Energy, and Panjiang Coal, with outflows of approximately 61.6 million yuan, 13.3 million yuan, and 9.8 million yuan respectively [1].

浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，预计2025年三季度，煤炭企业业绩整体业绩同比下滑收窄，环比改 善。该行表示，展望四季度，随着供暖季来临，电厂和供热公司即将补库，长协价格抬升支撑现货价 格，预计煤价10月中下旬上涨。政策方面，预计"反内卷"政策将持续推动行业自律，驱动煤炭供应收 缩，进一步支撑煤价稳步上涨。产能置换限制产能规模，预计产能可能会受产能指标的影响而减少，维 持行业"看好"评级。 煤炭股尾盘涨幅扩大，截至发稿，力量发展(01277)涨5.76%，报1.47港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898) 涨4.37%，报9.8港元；易大宗(01733)涨3.45%，报0.9港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨2.91%，报 38.92港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in the first half of 2025 (25H1) experienced a significant decline in profits, with total profits amounting to 149.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9% [1][3] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In 25H1, the coal industry's total profit was 149.2 billion yuan, down 52.9% year-on-year, with profits for Q1 and Q2 at 80.4 billion yuan and 68.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting declines of 47.4% and 58.1% [1][3] - The average net profit per ton of coal in 25H1 decreased by 30%, with Q2 net profit for the sector declining by 14% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that Q2 may represent the lowest point for the year [3][4] - The number and proportion of loss-making companies in the coal industry continued to rise, reaching a loss ratio of 56% by June 2025, an increase of 13.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Debt Levels - Capital expenditure in the coal industry slowed down in 25H1, but listed companies still saw a 47% year-on-year increase, with total capital expenditure reaching 84 billion yuan [2] - The industry's total debt reached a record high of 4.8 trillion yuan, while the asset-liability ratio remained stable at around 60% [2] Group 3: Cost and Expense Management - The average cost per ton of coal decreased, with a reduction of 19.5% and 4.2% in average costs for 25H1, leading to a significant drop in net profit per ton [3][4] - The average return on equity (ROE) for sample companies in 25H1 was only 1.9%, down from 5.4% in 24H1, indicating increased profitability pressure [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The coal market has shown signs of recovery since July 2025, with significant price increases for major coal companies, suggesting potential for improved performance in the second half of the year [3][4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the stabilization of coal prices and those with strong performance resilience, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5]

截至6月30日，中国神华股东户数16.13万，较上期减少16.75%；人均流通股103331股，较上期增加 20.32%。2025年1月-6月，中国神华实现营业收入1381.09亿元，同比减少17.83%；归母净利润246.41亿 元，同比减少16.48%。 资料显示，中国神华能源股份有限公司位于北京市东城区安定门西滨河路22号,香港中环花园道1号中银 大厦60楼B室，成立日期2004年11月8日，上市日期2007年10月9日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭和电力的生 产与销售、铁路和港口运输,航运业务,煤制烯烃业务。主营业务收入构成为：煤炭收入64.56%，发电收 入25.96%，其他(补充)4.12%，运输收入3.87%，煤化工收入1.50%。 中国神华所属申万行业为：煤炭-煤炭开采-动力煤。所属概念板块包括：动力煤、茅概念、融资融券、 超大盘、基金重仓等。 10月9日，中国神华盘中上涨2.00%，截至13:32，报39.27元/股，成交10.55亿元，换手率0.17%，总市值 7802.37亿元。 分红方面，中国神华A股上市后累计派现4609.99亿元。近三年，累计派现1404.70亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Greater China Materials** industry, highlighting a **liquidity-driven bull market** supported by **supply disruptions** that are positively impacting commodity prices. The preference is for **gold, copper, and aluminum equities** in this environment [1][4][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Forecasts**: - **Aluminum**: Morgan Stanley forecasts $2,659 per ton for 2H2025, which is 6% higher than consensus. For CY2026, the forecast is $2,750, 8% above consensus [10]. - **Copper**: Expected price of $10,047 per ton for 2H2025, 5% above consensus, and $10,650 for CY2026, 9% above consensus [10]. - **Gold**: Projected at $3,719 per ounce for 2H2025, 9% above consensus, and $4,400 for CY2026, 34% above consensus [10]. - **Steel Demand Drivers**: - The **China Steel Demand Drivers** for 2025 include: - **Machinery**: 30% - **Infrastructure**: 17% - **Residential Property**: 14% - **Auto**: 9% [17][19]. - **Copper Consumption Index**: The **China Copper Consumption Index** indicates a significant reliance on sectors such as **Power (47%)**, **White Goods (15%)**, and **Auto (10%)** [21][22]. - **Aluminum Demand Breakdown**: The **China aluminum demand** is driven by: - **Property**: 22% - **Passenger Vehicles**: 20% - **Grid Investment**: 11% [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Infrastructure Spending**: - Infrastructure spending has partially offset the slowdown in new property starts, with a **5.4% YoY increase** in infrastructure spending for the first eight months of 2025 [35][55]. - **Weekly Shipments**: - Weekly cement and rebar shipments in China are being monitored, indicating trends in demand and supply dynamics [55][56]. - **Market Sentiment**: - The overall sentiment in the materials sector remains **attractive**, with Morgan Stanley's research indicating potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies [4][5]. - **Analyst Team**: The call featured insights from a team of equity analysts at Morgan Stanley, emphasizing the importance of their research in investment decision-making [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Greater China Materials industry and its current market dynamics.

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation in 2025, with domestic production limited and imports decreasing, leading to an overall supply reduction of 100-150 million tons [1][6][18]. - The demand for electricity from urban residents and the tertiary industry is expected to grow strongly, despite a potential slowdown in thermal power growth [1][18]. Key Insights and Arguments - Coal prices have risen approximately 30% in 2025, with short-term peaks expected between 720-750 RMB/ton, followed by a potential second dip [1][10]. - The average coal price is projected to stabilize between 650-680 RMB/ton for the year, with a possible increase of 10%-15% in 2026, reaching 700-720 RMB/ton [1][10]. - High dividend-paying thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Jinneng Holding are recommended for long-term investment due to their strong resource backgrounds [1][12][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production in 2024 is estimated at 4.74 billion tons, with imports reaching a record high of 540 million tons, although historically imports have supplemented domestic production, accounting for less than 10% [2]. - The demand side of the coal industry is divided into thermal coal (60% of consumption) and coking coal (20%), with the remaining 20% split between construction materials and chemicals [3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The coal industry has seen a high capacity utilization rate, with limited potential for new capacity approvals, leading to a weak supply outlook in the medium to long term [4][18]. - The investment logic for coal stocks has shifted from traditional cyclical commodities to a focus on high dividends and stable earnings, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [15][19]. Performance of Key Companies - China Shenhua is expected to report annual earnings between 48 billion to 49 billion RMB, with a dividend yield of approximately 5%, outperforming other sectors [17]. - The acquisition of assets from the National Energy Group by China Shenhua is viewed positively for long-term stock price and performance enhancement, marking a significant step in state-owned enterprise reform [13]. Future Outlook - The coal price cycle is anticipated to continue upward, driven by strong demand from urban residents and the tertiary sector, alongside potential impacts from AI and extreme weather [4][18]. - The coal sector is expected to experience a new historical configuration peak after a second dip in prices, with high dividend stocks remaining attractive [19]. Additional Considerations - The coal industry's investment logic has evolved since 2022, focusing more on dividend stability and less on cyclical price movements [15]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a shift towards high dividend-paying stocks as a preferred investment strategy in the current economic climate [19].

8 月1 日晚，中国神华发布公告，将筹划发行股份及支付现金收购集团持有的煤炭、坑口煤电以及煤制 油煤制气煤化工等相关资产并募集配套资金，同时公司A 股股票将于8 月4 日开市起停牌，预计停牌时 间不超过10 个交易日。具体收购资产包括：国源电力、化工公司、新疆能源、乌海能源、包头矿业、 神延煤炭、晋神能源、平庄煤业、内蒙建投、煤炭运销公司、港口公司、航运公司、电子商务公司的股 权。 煤价超预期下跌、火电业务受新能源挤压、一体化经营风险、分红政策调整风险。 1）根本性解决集团与神华的同业竞争问题，大幅减少关联交易。2）很大程度上增加煤炭等资源的储量 （资源稀缺性的价值不可忽视），增强能源保供能力。3）巩固和提升煤电化运一体化运行的能力和效 率。 4）大幅增强和优化公司的经营状况、盈利能力和现金流水平。我们认为本次收购大概率不会影响公司 现金分红能力，集团新领导上任后，公司各业务加速推进，利好公司长远发展。 【投资建议】 盈利预测与评级。我们认为，本次收购大概率不会影响公司现金分红能力，仍然有望超额兑现65%的分 红承诺；集团新领导上任后，公司各业务加速推进，利好公司长远发展；收购集团资产有利于增强公司 煤电化运 ...