煤炭 煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 11 月进口煤价继续提升 2025.12.30 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 11 月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变 2025.12.17 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 将反内卷进行到底 2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 反内卷扭转煤炭市场预期。2025 年以来，煤炭股受累于煤价下 降，108 号文流向市场后，煤炭股悲观预期随即得到显著缓释。从 核心宏观目标来说，反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势，传导链条为 "通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"。对煤炭而言，短期看供给控 制，中长期看需求复苏。反内卷需要上下游维持合理利润。"政策 顶"和"政策底"推动合理煤价中枢逐步形成。2016 年供给侧改革 和 2024 年山西查三超是反内卷运动的可比事件，底层驱动影响调 控效果，供给侧改革是债务驱动，山西查三超是安全生产驱动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at a slight decline of 0.17%, indicating a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at 1.192 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% [1] - Since its establishment on June 25, 2015, the fund has achieved a return of 19.49%, with a recent one-month return of 0.29% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - China Shenhua opened with an increase of 0.54% [1] - China Petroleum experienced a decline of 1.17% [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry rose by 0.90% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.65% [1] - CNOOC saw a decrease of 1.14% [1] - Jereh Group dropped by 0.74% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company increased by 1.11% [1] - Guanghui Energy remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] - China Coal Energy rose by 0.69% [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal increased significantly by 3.95% [1]

广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。总体来 看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。该行认为26年煤炭价格中枢有望提升至750元/吨左 右，龙头公司股息率多为4-6%水平，优势明显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。 煤炭股集体走高，截至发稿，中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨4.94%，报10.41港元；兖矿能源（600188） (01171)涨2.87%，报10.03港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨2.88%，报40.02港元。 消息面上，11月下旬以来，港口动力煤价格持续单边下跌，从高点834元/吨跌至低点670元/吨，并在12 月31日终迎反弹，单日上涨8元/吨至678元/吨。长江证券认为，本次反弹核心驱动在于供给年末收缩与 需求边际改善的共振，叠加政策托底预期强化。尽管高库存环境、元旦后煤矿逐步复产、终端采购谨慎 心态或仍共同制约煤价反弹力度，然而价格下行有底得以体现，叠加岁末年初险资有望增配煤炭板块， 当前时点建议继续重视煤炭红利配置机会。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 重要信息回顾： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 持续降温提振日耗，叠加年底安监 趋严，预计煤价上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.12.28-2026.1.4） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、 Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 505、593、682 元/吨，环比+18、+14、+6 元 ...

2026 年 01 月 04 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 S0350124100016 | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 S0350125070001 | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 北港库存去化明显，港口煤价开启上涨 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/12/31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -3.3% | 2.4% | -6.3% | | 沪深 300 | 2.3% | -0.2% | 17.7% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：本周生产收紧，电厂日耗环 比提升，港口煤价降幅收窄（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈 晨》——2025-12-28 《煤炭开采行业周报：年末供应下 ...

供需博弈加剧，煤价震荡延续 | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 18,604.66 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 18,136.90 | 2025-12-27 华千亿收购提升价值》2025-12-20 弱势下探》2025-12-13 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 山西焦煤 | 6.42 | 1.19 | 0.55 | 0.35 | ...

北海二期2×100万千瓦超超临界一次再热燃煤发电机组全部建成投运 近日，中国神华能源股份有限公司持股约52%的控股子公司国能广投北海发电有限公司（"北海电力"） 二期扩建工程项目（"北海二期"）4 号机组顺利通过168小时试运行，移交商业运营。至此，北海二期2 台100万千瓦超超临界一次再热燃煤发电机组全部建成投运。 国家能源集团又一台百万机组投运 近日，中国神华能源股份有限公司持股67%的控股子公司国能清远发电有限责任公司二期扩建工程项目 （"清远二期"）3号发电机组顺利通过168小时试运行，正式投入商业运营。 清远二期位于广东省清远市英德市沙口镇，规划建设2台100万千瓦超超临界二次再热燃煤发电机组，是 广东省"十四五"规划能源保障重点工程。项目采用高效清洁煤电技术，设计供电煤耗262.23克/千瓦时， 可实现大气污染物超低排放及废水零排放。目前，清远二期4号发电机组建设工作稳步推进，计划于 2026年2月投运。项目全部投运后，将有效缓解所在区域能源供应压力，为粤港澳大湾区能源安全提供 保障。 近日，中国神华能源股份有限公司持股67%的控股子公司国能清远发电有限责任公司二期扩建工程项目 （"清远二期"）3 ...

天眼查资料显示，中国神华煤制油化工有限公司，成立于2003年，位于北京市，是一家以从事其他制造 业为主的企业。企业注册资本3123711.585277万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国神华煤制油化工 有限公司共对外投资了20家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，专利信息2107条，此外企业还拥有行政许可 20个。 来源：市场资讯 神华工程技术有限公司，成立于2017年，位于北京市，是一家以从事土木工程建筑业为主的企业。企业 注册资本48674.4万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，神华工程技术有限公司共对外投资了1家企业，参 与招投标项目3458次，专利信息159条，此外企业还拥有行政许可36个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国神华煤制油化工有限公司、神华工程技术有限公司取得一项名为"含气 工况用液力透平性能测试设备"的专利，授权公告号CN116608075B，申请日期为2023年5月。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's board approved a restructuring plan to acquire equity stakes in 12 target companies from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, for a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan, making it the largest acquisition in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes 13 companies, with notable assets such as Xinjiang Energy's coal production capacity of 101.5 million tons per year and Uhuai Energy's certified total capacity of 15 million tons [2]. - The coal chemical company involved has unique projects, including the world's only million-ton coal direct liquefaction and the first set of 600,000 tons/year coal-to-olefins [2]. - The transaction will increase China Shenhua's coal reserves to 6.849 billion tons, a 64.72% increase, and its recoverable coal reserves to 3.45 billion tons, nearly doubling its capacity with a 97.71% increase [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Post-transaction, China Shenhua's total assets will rise to 896.587 billion yuan, with equity attributable to shareholders at 419.038 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.55% [5]. - The total operating revenue is projected to reach 206.509 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.637 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - This acquisition will further solidify China Shenhua's position as a leading global integrated energy company and enhance its capabilities in the coal chemical and new materials sectors [4].

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery in profits, with November electricity consumption increasing by 6.2% year-on-year [6][32] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, indicating confidence in its future performance [3] Group 1: Coal Sector Review - In December, the coal sector saw a slight decline, underperforming the market by 19.4 percentage points year-to-date [6][16] - The coal sector's cumulative decline for the year is 1.7%, ranking 29th out of 30 sectors [6][16] - The sub-sectors of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke experienced declines of 3.5%, 4.5%, and 5.8% respectively in December [6][16] Group 2: Coal Market Overview - November electricity consumption grew by 6.2%, while non-electric demand remained weak, and coal imports fell by approximately 20% year-on-year [6][32] - Domestic coal prices have shown weakness in thermal coal, while coking coal prices have stabilized and slightly increased [32][40] - International coal prices for high-calorific thermal coal have remained stable, while coking coal prices have continued to rise [49] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Supply - In November, domestic raw coal production decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with imports down by 19.9% [59] - The total raw coal production for the first eleven months of the year was 4.402 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [59] - The report highlights that the demand for electricity and industrial production remains a critical factor influencing coal consumption [51][52] Group 4: Key Companies and Financial Analysis - Key companies with stable profits and dividends include China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6][7] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and supply constraints include Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huabei Mining [6][7] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) [7]