Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the acceleration of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, urging central enterprises to seize development opportunities and actively embrace new fields and tracks to form new growth points [1] - In 2023, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) initiated actions for the revitalization of central enterprises and future industries, increasing assessment guidance and policy support [1] - By 2024, investments by central enterprises in strategic emerging industries are expected to exceed 40% of total investments, with operating revenue approaching 30% [1] Group 2 - As of September 16, 2025, the National Enterprise Win-Win ETF (159719) has seen a net value increase of 51.39% over the past three years, ranking 247 out of 1867 index stock funds, placing it in the top 13.23% [2] - The ETF has recorded a maximum single-month return of 14.61% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting 7 months and a maximum cumulative increase of 24.70% [2] - The ETF's management fee is 0.25% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [2] Group 3 - The FTSE China National Enterprises Open Win Index, which the ETF closely tracks, aims to reflect the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, focusing on globalization and sustainable development [2] - The index consists of 100 constituent stocks, including 80 A-share companies and 20 Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [2] Group 4 - The top weighted stocks in the National Enterprise Win-Win ETF include China Petroleum (15.94%), China Petrochemical (11.93%), and China State Construction (9.59%) [4] - Other notable stocks include China Mobile (6.87%), China Railway (4.53%), and China Telecom (3.32%) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Lu'an Huanneng, Huayang Co., Shanmei International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Jinkong Coal [4]. Core Insights - The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau has confirmed the overproduction of coal, with a theoretical reduction in raw coal output of 61.17 million tons year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - In 2024, Inner Mongolia's coal production exceeded the approved capacity by 61.17 million tons, representing an overproduction rate of 4.95% [1]. - The report anticipates a continued contraction in supply due to strict enforcement of overproduction regulations, which could theoretically impact supply by approximately 400 million tons [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to gradually increase as the market transitions from the off-peak season, with a potential price rebound supported by declining port inventories and ongoing supply restrictions [3]. Summary by Sections Overproduction and Regulatory Actions - A total of 93 coal mines were found to be operating above their approved production capacities in Inner Mongolia, with 30% of the inspected mines exceeding their capacities by over 110% in 2024 [2]. - Approximately 32.2 million tons per year of production capacity is pending verification before resuming operations, affecting 15 mines in the Ordos region [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report suggests that the supply side is likely to continue contracting, which, combined with seasonal demand increases, may lead to a recovery in coal prices back to levels seen in Q3 2024 [3]. - The report highlights that traders are currently cautious, but the fundamentals are improving, which could support a price increase [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market exposure, stable performance, and growth potential, including Lu'an Huanneng, Jinkong Coal, and industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [3].

编辑 王进雨 新京报贝壳财经讯 9月16日，中国神华在港交所发布公告称，前8月累计煤炭销量2.8亿吨，同比减少 9.2%；8月煤炭销量3750万吨，同比减少3.1%。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 "反内卷"下，看好旺季煤价反弹，带来焦煤及弹性标的业绩修复 2025年8月煤炭行业热点事件复盘及投资策略 证券分析师：严天鹏 A0230524090004 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 闫海 A0230519010004 研究支持： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 联系人： 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 2025.09.16 主要内容 2 2. 供给端：国内产量增速放缓，进口量同比 下滑 3. 需求端：动力煤需求边际改善，钢铁利润 改善促使焦煤价格修复 4. 投资分析意见与风险提示 8月热点事件汇总：关注反内卷、印尼及蒙古煤炭行业变化 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 3 资料来源：中国煤炭市场网，多彩蒙古公众号，申万宏源研究 ◼ 8月4日，国家能源局综合司关于开展煤矿智能化技术升级应用试点工作的通知。 ➢ 要点：内容包括：井工煤矿智能掘进系统、井工煤矿智能采煤系统、露天煤矿智能采剥系统、智能选煤 系统、辅助及其他智能系统；数量：每地方（企业）推荐项目一般不超过5个（山西、内蒙古、陕西不超 过10个）。8月6日，山西：煤矿智能化建设制定评定办法 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - In August, coal production continued to decline, while thermal power demand showed year-on-year growth, and coal prices increased significantly month-on-month [1][11] - The overall coal supply in August decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to July [25] - The report highlights a positive outlook for coal companies due to high cash flow, profitability, and dividend yields, suggesting a focus on value attributes in the coal sector [11] Supply Analysis - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to July [17][19] - Daily average production in August was 12.6 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons per day month-on-month, but a decrease of 195,000 tons per day year-on-year [19] - Coal imports in August were 42.74 million tons, down 6.77% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 16 percentage points compared to July [24] Demand Analysis - Thermal power demand in August increased by 1.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 2.6 percentage points compared to July [26] - The total industrial electricity generation in August was 936.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [18] - The report notes that the construction and manufacturing sectors showed slight slowdowns, while the real estate market remained weak [34] Inventory and Price Trends - By the end of August, coal inventories at northern ports decreased by 2.505 million tons to 22.232 million tons, showing a significant reduction year-on-year [10] - The report indicates that the coal price at Qinhuangdao port for 5500 kcal coal increased by 51.37 CNY/ton month-on-month, reflecting a rise of 8.05% [11] Company Focus and Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong financial health and growth potential [11] - It suggests that investors consider companies with high dividend yields and cash flow, highlighting the investment value of coal stocks in the current market environment [11]

中国神华9月16日晚间公告，2025年8月公司煤炭销售量3750万吨，同比下降3.1%。2025年1-8月，公司 累计煤炭销售量2.8亿吨，同比下降9.2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, countering the decline in coal prices [1]. - The company is actively pursuing an integrated business model, enhancing its operational stability and future profitability [5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 138.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.64 billion yuan, down 12.0% [1]. - The operating cash flow for the same period was 45.79 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% decline [1]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 12.9% to 493 yuan per ton, while the production cost per ton fell by 7.7% to 177.7 yuan [5]. Business Segments - **Coal Business**: The company produced 165 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with total coal sales down 10.9% to 205 million tons [5]. - **Electricity Business**: The company generated 98.78 billion kWh of electricity, a decline of 7.4%, with an average selling price of 386 yuan/MWh, down 4.2% [5]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about demand growth in the second half of 2025, anticipating a national electricity consumption increase of 5%-6% year-on-year [5]. - Ongoing projects and asset acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's integrated operations and overall profitability [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 0.98 yuan per share, totaling 19.47 billion yuan, which represents 79% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [5]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 50.52 billion yuan, 52.43 billion yuan, and 55.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.54 yuan, 2.64 yuan, and 2.77 yuan [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that steel mill profitability continues to be under pressure, which is expected to lead to a further decline in coking coal prices in the short term. However, due to a strong increase in July, the baseline coking coal price forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 7% to 13% [1] - The current valuation level of the domestic coal sector lacks attractiveness, leading the company to maintain a "neutral" rating for the industry [1] - The rating for China Coal Energy (601898) has been downgraded to "sell" due to the expectation of negative free cash flow for the year and the management's apparent unwillingness to increase the dividend payout ratio. The forecasted dividend yield for 2025 to 2027 is only 3.7% to 3.9%, with the target price reduced from HKD 7.39 to HKD 7.21. Additionally, the company's earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been cut by 10% to 16% in response to the latest coal price expectations [1] Group 2 - Despite the current market expectations of relatively low coal inventory levels at domestic ports, which could support winter spot thermal coal prices, the overall forecast for spot coal prices for the year has been lowered by 4% due to disappointing price levels in the second quarter [1] - China Shenhua (601088) demonstrated resilient profitability in its interim results, with the smallest decline in unit profits for its coal business during the coal price drop in the first half of the year. The company maintains a "hold" rating, with the target price increased from HKD 32.18 to HKD 39.48 [1]

或使用以上信息可能造成投资风险。 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 8 月 | 累计 | 8 月 | 累计 | 8 月 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 商品煤产量 1. | 百万吨 | 28.6 | 223.3 | 28.7 | 224.4 | (0.3) | (0.5) | | 2. 煤炭销售量 | 百万吨 | 37.5 | 280.2 | 38.7 | 308.7 | (3.1) | (9.2) | | （二）运输 | | | | | | | | | 1. 自有铁路运输周转量 | 十亿吨公里 | 28.0 | 207.1 | 25.3 | 211.0 | 10.7 | (1.8) | | ...

该行将中煤能源(01898)的评级降至"沽售"，因公司今年可能录得负数自由现金流，管理层似乎无意提 高派息比例，2025至2027年预测股息回报率仅达3.7%至3.9%，目标价从7.39港元降至7.21港元，并因应 对煤价最新预期，将该公司2025至2027年盈利预测下调10%至16%。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，钢厂盈利持续受压，料将导致焦煤价格在短期内进一步走 弱，但基于7月份强劲升幅，将2025至2027年基准焦煤价格预测上调7%至13%。中银国际认为内地煤炭 板块当前估值水平缺乏吸引力，维持行业"中性"评级。 虽然目前市场预期国内港口煤炭库存水平相对偏低，可为冬季现货动力煤价格带来支持，但考虑到第二 季价格水平逊预期，仍将今年全年现货煤价预测下调4%。该行又指，中国神华(01088)中期业绩展示出 盈利具韧性，在上半年煤价下跌期间，其煤炭业务单位利润降幅为最小，维持"持有"评级，目标价由 32.18港元上调至39.48港元。 ...