证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 17 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 38 号文要求新增用地与存量盘活挂钩，上海二手房成交活跃 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/3/7-26/3/13） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.7%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.5%、沪深 300 上 升 0.2%、房地产（申万）下跌 0.5%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：京投发展(+25.0%)、 西藏城投(+13.4%)、*ST 阳光(+9.3%)、首开股份(+9.2%)、沙河股份(+9.0%)，涨跌幅后五的 分别为：财信发展(-8.6%)、*ST 荣控(-8.2%)、特发服务(-6.5%)、新黄浦(-5.7%)、深深房 A(-5.3%)。 联系人 数据跟 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, with a focus on real estate companies with abundant resources in core cities. The central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market is evident, and companies capable of revitalizing existing assets and those with a strong presence in core cities are expected to benefit in the long term [1][2]. - Key recommendations include companies with "good credit, good cities, and good products," such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land, as well as firms that can manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments, like Longfor Group and New City Holdings [1][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - In January-February, real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the decline rate narrowed by 25 percentage points compared to December. New construction and completion areas saw a year-on-year decline of 23% and 28%, respectively, with the decline in new construction expanding by 4 percentage points compared to December [2]. - The total construction area nationwide decreased by 12% year-on-year as of February, with inventory levels showing a slight increase of 0.1% in unsold residential properties [2]. Sales Performance - The real estate market is still adjusting, with sales volume and value showing a year-on-year decline of 14% and 20%, respectively, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to December. The average selling price decreased by 7.7% year-on-year [3]. - The price index for new homes in 70 cities fell by 3.5% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in property prices [3]. Cash Flow Situation - The cash flow situation for real estate companies remains challenging, with funds received in January-February down by 17% year-on-year. Specifically, deposits and pre-sales dropped by 22%, and personal mortgage loans fell by 42% [4]. - Although domestic loans and self-raised funds saw a reduction in their decline rates, the overall cash flow improvement remains limited due to significant drops in mortgage loans and pre-sale deposits [4]. Recommended Companies - The report highlights several companies for investment, including Longfor Group, Greentown Service, and China Overseas Development, all rated as "Buy" with specific target prices indicating potential upside [8][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical tensions persist, and concerns about inflation have led to a decline in US Treasuries. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen significantly, with the 2 - year yield rising more, reflecting concerns about limited Fed rate - cut space due to rising inflation expectations. The situation's uncertainty remains high, and the duration of the Holmuiz Strait's navigation restrictions is crucial [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks, with the Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index falling 0.5% last week [1][3]. - In the on - shore market, the yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds have risen. Factors such as improved inflation expectations, good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and reduced expectations of future monetary policy easing have jointly promoted the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [1][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Off - shore Market - There were 3 new issuances of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds exceeding $100 million last week, totaling $1.45 billion, mainly financial bonds; about 17.5 billion RMB of off - shore RMB bonds were newly issued, also mainly financial bonds [2]. - The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries rose 14 and 16 basis points respectively to 4.28% and 3.72% last week, mainly due to market concerns about potential inflation problems caused by the continuous high oil price [1][2]. - Key - term US Treasuries have fully reversed all their gains this year. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen 11 and 24 basis points respectively compared to the end of 2025 [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks. The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index fell 0.5% last week, and the spread narrowed by 2 basis points. Among them, the high - rating index fell 0.5%, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points; the high - yield index fell 0.4%, and the spread widened by 3 basis points [1][3]. On - shore Market - The People's Bank of China net - withdrew 10.11 billion RMB of short - term liquidity through reverse repurchase operations last week, and inter - bank funding rates rebounded. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 5 and 1 basis points respectively to 1.46% and 1.50% [4]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds rose 1 and 3 basis points respectively to 1.37% and 1.81% last week [4]. - February's inflation data showed improved price pressure, and the continuous geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, improving market expectations of subsequent inflation. The macro data from January to February showed good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and although retail data was still weak, it was better than market expectations. Coupled with the guidance of the People's Bank of China, market expectations of future monetary policy easing have weakened, jointly promoting the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [4]. Recent Newly Issued Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Beijing Construction Engineering (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. issued bonds with a coupon rate of 4.10%, an issue amount of $300 million, and a maturity date of March 19, 2029 [5]. Appendix: List of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The appendix provides a detailed list of various Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issue amount, maturity date, and ratings from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch [17][19][21].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·房地产开发 新城控股（601155） 双轮驱动战略笃行，商业竞争力与财务稳健 性巩固 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 119,174 | 88,999 | 40,682 | 28,433 | 24,598 | | 同比（%） | 3.22 | (25.32) | (54.29) | (30.11) | (13.49) | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 737.10 | 752.39 | 884.50 | 1,145.48 | 1,466.56 | | 同比（%） | (47.12) | 2.07 | 17.56 | 29.51 | 28.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 0.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 45.81 | 44.88 | 38.18 | 29.48 | 23.02 | [Ta ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company is implementing a dual-wheel drive strategy, focusing on both commercial operations and residential development, which has strengthened its competitive position and financial stability [12][16]. - The commercial property segment has become the main source of profit, with a gross profit margin of 71.20% in the first half of 2025, contributing 77.06% to the overall gross profit [7][29]. - The company has a robust national commercial layout, with 174 operational "Wuyue Plaza" locations and a rental income of 6.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [7][44]. - The residential development segment is focused on inventory reduction, with a contract sales amount of 10.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 56.4% year-on-year [60]. - The financial structure is continuously optimized, with a debt ratio of 65.6% after excluding advance receipts, and a significant reduction in short-term debt [72][73]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual-Wheel Drive Strategy - The company operates under a dual-wheel drive model, integrating residential development and commercial operations, which has proven effective during industry adjustments [12][16]. - The management team has extensive industry experience, contributing to stable governance and operational efficiency [19]. 2. Commercial Operations - The company has expanded its national footprint, with a total operational area of 16.08 million square meters and a rental rate of 97.8% [35][44]. - The commercial operations have shown resilience, with a total customer flow of 950 million visits in the first half of 2025, up 16% year-on-year [49]. 3. Residential Development - The company is focusing on inventory reduction, with a significant portion of its inventory located in second and third-tier cities [67]. - The average contract sales price has stabilized at 10,072 yuan per square meter, reflecting a shift towards maintaining price and profitability [64]. 4. Financial Analysis - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt to 52.3 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 65.6% [72][73]. - The average financing cost has decreased to 5.55%, indicating improved financial conditions [79]. - The company has successfully issued multiple bonds and asset-backed securities, ensuring a stable financing channel [81].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of revitalizing existing land resources and managing inventory effectively [2][18]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "incremental storage linkage mechanism" aims to accelerate the revitalization of existing land resources, aligning with the central government's strategy of controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply [2][18]. - The recent policy document (Document No. 38) indicates that new construction land will prioritize major projects and public welfare, which is not intended to halt land supply but rather to shift focus towards utilizing existing land [14][15]. - The report highlights that the overall impact of the new policy is more beneficial than detrimental for real estate companies, particularly those with significant inventory in suburban areas [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector has underperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of -0.53%, lagging behind the benchmark by 0.72 percentage points [20][21]. - The Hong Kong real estate sector also showed a decline of -3.95%, underperforming the market by 2.82 percentage points [32]. 2. Credit Market - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 10.58 billion, with a net financing amount of 1.007 billion, indicating a challenging financing environment [20][39]. - Cumulative issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 744.80 billion, with a net financing deficit of -156.55 billion compared to the previous year [20][39]. 3. REITs Market - The REITs index experienced a decline of -0.74%, with the property REITs index down by -1.27% and the operating rights REITs index down by -0.08% [40][41]. - The total transaction volume for REITs was 9.91 billion, with a decrease of 4.68% compared to the previous week [54]. 4. Housing Market - New and second-hand housing transaction areas saw significant year-on-year declines of -41.58% and -46.88%, respectively, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [6][18]. - The report anticipates a stabilization in the second-hand housing market, while new housing metrics are expected to bottom out [2][18]. 5. Land Market - The supply and transaction area of land in major cities increased by 9.10% and 3.54% respectively, while the premium rate decreased by 4.49% [5]. - The report emphasizes that the new policy will not stop land supply but will focus on optimizing the quality of land offered [15][18].

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2026-010 公司将按照法律法规及《公司章程》等相关规定，尽快完成董事补选工作，并 及时履行信息披露义务。 吕小平先生确认与公司董事会以及管理层均未出现任何意见分歧，亦无任何有 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于公司董事辞职的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事离任情况 新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"新城控股"）董事会于 2026 年 3 月 16 日收到董事吕小平先生的书面辞职报告。吕小平先生因个人原因，申请 辞去公司董事职务。具体情况如下： | 姓名 | 离任 职务 | 离任时间 | | 原定任期 到期日 | | 是否继续在 离任原因 上市公司及其 | 是否存在未履行 完毕的公开承诺 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 控股子公司任职 | | | 吕小平 | 董事 | 2026 | 年 | 2027 | 年 | 个人原因 否 | 否 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of price performance over transaction volume during the current "small spring" season in the real estate market, suggesting that price trends are crucial for assessing the overall market trajectory [2][3] - The recent policy from the Ministry of Natural Resources, which focuses on "strict control of new land and revitalization of existing land," aligns with the government's long-standing approach and does not imply a halt in land supply [3][51][52] - The report highlights that while transaction volumes in major cities like Shanghai have shown significant increases, asset prices remain relatively stable, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring of price trends [2][4][31] Market Performance - The A-share real estate index experienced a weekly decline of 0.53%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [10][11] - In the Hong Kong market, the index for Hong Kong property stocks fell by 2.65%, while the index for Hong Kong-funded property companies dropped by 5.88%, both underperforming against the Hang Seng Index [14][15] Secondary Housing Weekly Tracking - In the secondary housing market, Shanghai and Beijing saw week-on-week price increases, while the national average price declined by 0.1%, with a narrowing of the decline [21][25] - Transaction volumes in major cities have surged, with Shanghai recording a single-day transaction high of 1,472 units, marking a significant increase in activity [31][33] New Housing Weekly Tracking - The "small spring" trend continues in the new housing market, with a 73% week-on-week increase in transaction volumes in first-tier cities, particularly notable in Guangzhou and Shanghai [47][48] - The total inventory of new homes has slightly decreased, with first-tier cities showing a 1.0% week-on-week decline [49][50] Key Event Commentary - The Ministry of Natural Resources has clarified its development direction, emphasizing the need to balance new and existing land use, which is expected to influence future land acquisition strategies for real estate companies [3][51][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national real estate companies or local state-owned enterprises that have rich experience in urban renewal projects, as future land acquisition will increasingly depend on revitalizing existing land [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development sector and the real estate services sector [7] Core Insights - The recent policy document No. 38 emphasizes controlling new land supply while promoting the utilization of existing land, indicating a shift in land supply logic that may enhance the competitiveness of real estate companies focused on asset management and long-term operations [1][2] - The new policy introduces hard constraints linking new land supply to the revitalization of existing land, prioritizing land for major projects and public welfare rather than commercial real estate development [2][3] - The trend of "quality over quantity" in land supply has been established since 2024, with a projected 18% year-on-year decrease in land supply area in 2025, reflecting the government's focus on controlling new supply and reducing inventory [4] Summary by Sections Land Supply Policy - The policy document establishes two main hard constraints: new construction land must not exceed the area of revitalized existing land, and new land is primarily reserved for significant projects and public welfare [2] - The simplification of land approval processes aims to reduce costs for local governments in revitalizing existing land, pushing urban development towards more efficient land use [2][3] Market Dynamics - The control of new land supply suggests a significant shift towards utilizing existing land, with urban renewal and redevelopment becoming key avenues for real estate companies to acquire land [3] - The supply of residential land has been decreasing, with a 2% year-on-year decline in the total area of existing residential land in 97 sample cities at the beginning of 2026 [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong asset revitalization capabilities and a focus on core urban areas are expected to benefit from long-term growth opportunities. Recommended stocks include those with good credit, city positioning, and product quality, particularly in Shanghai [5] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land, among others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11]