11月18日，新城控股盘中下跌2.02%，截至09:55，报14.58元/股，成交5837.76万元，换手率0.18%，总 市值328.87亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1243.77万元，特大单买入1747.71万元，占比29.94%，卖出319.13万 元，占比5.47%；大单买入1119.03万元，占比19.17%，卖出1303.84万元，占比22.33%。 资料显示，新城控股集团股份有限公司位于上海市普陀区中江路388弄6号新城控股大厦A座，成立日期 1996年6月30日，上市日期2015年12月4日，公司主营业务涉及房地产开发与销售。主营业务收入构成 为：房地产开发销售68.63%，物业出租及管理29.06%，其他(补充)2.31%。 新城控股所属申万行业为：房地产-房地产开发-商业地产。所属概念板块包括：REITs概念、新零售、 养老产业、装配建筑、中盘等。 截至9月30日，新城控股股东户数4.32万，较上期减少12.34%；人均流通股52155股，较上期增加 14.07%。2025年1月-9月，新城控股实现营业收入343.71亿元，同比减少33.34%；归母净利润9.74亿元， 同比减少3 ...

截至2025年11月3日，公司股价13.99元，对应PE（动态）24.30倍、PB 0.40倍，显著低于 房地产 行业中 位估值（PE 31.08倍、PB 0.68倍）。公司商业地产业务表现亮眼，形成稳定现金流支撑；政策宽松背景 下住宅开发业务有望边际改善；债务结构持续优化，偿债压力可控。 2025年以来，房地产行业政策持续加码宽松：中央层面强调推进城中村改造、巩固市场止跌回稳态势； 地方层面优化限购政策、发放购房补贴、降低首付比例等。同时，监管层加大对民营房企的融资支持， 新城控股作为稳健型民企，已顺利度过债务刚兑高峰期，2025年上半年境外子公司成功发行1.6亿美元 债券，信用资质获国际投资者认可。 综合 估值、基本面及行业趋势，给予"谨慎买入"评级，目标价18.50元，对应2026年PB 0.68倍，存在 32.2%上涨空间。 ???一、公司核心概况：商业+住宅双轮驱动，稳健属性凸显 ? 1.1 基本盘：深耕地产二十载，股权结构集中稳定 新城控股 成立于1993年，2015年登陆上交所，是国内少数实现"住宅开发+商业运营"双轮驱动的头部房 企。截至2025年三季度末，公司总资产2806.73亿元，归母所 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stabilization of the residential balance sheet suggests a potential bottoming out in the real estate market, but the speed of improvement will determine the duration of this bottoming process [3][4] - The report highlights that since 2021, China's housing prices have cumulatively declined by 37%, which is longer than the average decline of 34% over 6.1 years in 42 countries, indicating that while the price drop is significant, the adjustment period in China is still relatively short [22][7] - The report identifies five major opportunities in the industry, including the stabilization of the residential asset-liability ratio, a decrease in the housing price-to-income ratio, improving rental yields, a bullish stock market potentially boosting wealth effects, and a deep clearing of supply-side issues [3][4] Group 2 - The industry outlook predicts a structural bottoming out, with opportunities arising for quality housing and commercial real estate, driven by policies focusing on demand recovery and high-quality development [3][4] - The report anticipates that the core cities will stabilize sooner due to healthier supply-demand relationships, with a forecast for sales volume and price declines to narrow in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, recommending specific companies in the quality housing and commercial real estate segments, as well as undervalued firms and property management companies [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities stabilizing sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the rise of favorable policies for housing and the potential for commercial real estate assets to be revalued during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 201 million square meters last week, up 11.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 12.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 3.2% [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in November are down 39%, with first and second-tier cities down 37.8% and third and fourth-tier cities down 49.2% [5][7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 89.538 million square meters, with a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week [22][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council supports the issuance of REITs for private investment projects and the central bank aims to improve the foundational financial system for real estate [31][32]. - Local policies include the promotion of purchasing existing homes for affordable housing in Hangzhou and the launch of online applications for housing provident fund loans in Zhengzhou [31][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales data for October 2025. China Jinmao achieved sales of 12 billion yuan, up 3%, while other companies like New Town Holdings and CIFI Holdings saw significant declines [38][39]. - China Resources Land announced a placement of 49.5 million shares, raising approximately 2.06 billion HKD, maintaining a 70.1% stake post-placement [38][39]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 1.08%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [43][47]. - Notable stock performances included China Wuyi and Huaxia Happiness, which saw significant gains, while companies like Asia Pacific Real Estate and Shenzhen Real Estate A experienced declines [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious optimism despite current challenges [2][3]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with significant declines in new construction and completion rates. For the period from January to October 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with new construction down by 19.8% and completions down by 16.9% [1][20]. - The sales side shows a broader decline in sales volume and price. From January to October 2025, the sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a more pronounced drop of 18.8% in October alone. The sales amount also fell by 9.6% year-on-year, with a 24.3% decline in October [2][33]. - Funding sources for real estate development are tightening, with total funding down by 9.7% year-on-year. In October, funding sources saw a significant drop of 21.9% compared to the previous month [35]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, with core cities expected to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the potential shift of real estate companies towards manufacturing and the favorable conditions for quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. - Adjustments to the 2025 forecasts include a projected investment decline of 14.2% (previously 11.0%), new construction down by 18.0% (previously 15.1%), and completions down by 17.7% (previously 20.0%) [20][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In October 2025, new home prices in 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline, while the year-on-year decline narrowed. First-tier cities maintained their price decline [6][10] - Second-hand home prices experienced both month-on-month and year-on-year declines, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [6][10] - The report highlights that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization due to various policies aimed at halting the decline, with expectations for further stabilization in the future [6][10] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - New home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.4%, and -0.5% month-on-month respectively, with an overall decline of -0.5% across 70 cities, which is an increase in the decline rate by 0.1 percentage points compared to September [3][13] - Year-on-year, first, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of -0.8%, -2.0%, and -3.4% respectively, with the overall year-on-year decline for 70 cities narrowing by 0.1 percentage points to -2.6% [3][13] Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by -0.7% month-on-month, with the decline rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of -0.9%, -0.6%, and -0.7% respectively [4][20] - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices across 70 cities decreased by -5.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points [4][20] Key City Performance - In a focus on 35 key cities, new home prices showed mixed results, with Shanghai leading with a month-on-month increase of +0.3% and a year-on-year increase of +5.7% [5][28] - Conversely, second-hand home prices in these cities uniformly declined, with Shanghai experiencing a year-on-year drop of -1.8% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong credit real estate companies that can cater to improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others [6][10] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has experienced a significant decline in contract sales and revenue due to the ongoing shrinkage of its real estate development business, leading to a strategic shift towards commercial operations [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - From January to October, New City Holdings reported a cumulative contract sales amount of 16.468 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.2%, with a total sales area of 2.1506 million square meters [1]. - In October alone, the company achieved contract sales of approximately 1.419 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 191,500 square meters [1]. - The total sales for the "golden September and silver October" period were less than 3 billion yuan, placing the company 41st in the rankings of real estate companies by sales in the first ten months [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, New City Holdings reported operating revenue of 34.371 billion yuan, down 33.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 974 million yuan, a decrease of 33.05% [2]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to reduced delivery income from real estate projects and a drop in gross profit margins [2]. Commercial Operations - In response to the shrinking residential business, New City Holdings has shifted its focus to commercial operations, achieving a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 1.186 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.65% [2][3]. - Cumulatively, the commercial operating revenue from January to October reached 11.696 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.49% [2]. Strategic Shift - The company has decided to separate cash flow management for commercial operations and development projects, with a focus on commercial business as a foundational element for future growth [4]. - Currently, real estate development accounts for about two-thirds of revenue, while commercial operations make up one-third, indicating ongoing pressure on future revenue due to the contraction in real estate development [4]. Debt Management - New City Holdings has faced increasing debt repayment pressure, issuing high-interest bonds to ensure full repayment of maturing debts [5][6]. - The company issued three rounds of high-interest bonds at a rate of 11.88% to address upcoming debt obligations, including a $250 million overseas bond due in October and a 2 billion yuan medium-term note due in December [6]. Investor Communication - During a recent earnings call, the chairman emphasized the company's commitment to maintaining positive operating cash flow and leveraging policy support to optimize financing structures and costs [7]. - Concerns were raised by investors regarding high accounts payable and potential audit issues, to which the chairman assured that the company has considered various factors in assessing its ongoing viability and does not foresee delisting risks [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite ongoing challenges [5]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant reduction in sales and profitability due to increased impairment pressures, although some leading firms are showing resilience [2][4]. - The overall investment landscape is shifting towards top-tier firms, which are capturing a larger share of new value and demonstrating stronger sales performance [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview of Real Estate Development - Sales for the top 100 real estate companies reached CNY 2.5 trillion and 120 million square meters from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.8% and 23.2% respectively. Leading firms like China Jinmao, Jianfa, and Yuexiu showed positive growth [2][14]. - New value added by the top 100 firms was CNY 1.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, driven by the supply of premium land in core cities and increased investment enthusiasm from leading firms [2][19]. - Revenue for 11 sample firms fell to CNY 768.8 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year, while gross margin decreased slightly to 13.0%, with a much smaller decline compared to the previous year [2][26]. - The industry is facing significant impairment pressures, with total impairment provisions reaching CNY 278.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, up from CNY 174.2 billion in the same period last year [2][34]. 2. Changes in Real Estate Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, the real estate sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 0.52% of total fund investments, with a total market value of CNY 19.72 billion, indicating a recovery in holdings [3][44]. - The number of real estate stocks held by funds decreased to 47, reflecting a decline in concentration among top holdings [3][55]. - The overall market for real estate stocks has remained stable, with policy easing contributing to a more favorable investment environment [3][45]. 3. Analysis of High-Performing Stocks - Four high-performing real estate companies were identified: New City Holdings, China Jinmao, Jianfa International Group, and Binjiang Group, all of which have significantly outperformed the market in 2025 [4][44]. - The stock prices of these firms have risen substantially, with increases of 22.9%, 45.8%, 34.5%, and 28.9% respectively, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's increase of 16.3% [4][44]. - The investment logic for these quality firms has gained market recognition, indicating a consensus among investors regarding their undervaluation [4][44].

Group 1: Housing and Construction - Beijing's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee announced the completion of the 2025 affordable housing construction tasks, including 17 new projects with 19,800 units, 7 collection projects with 2,400 units, and 7 completed projects with 8,100 units [1] - The plan includes public rental housing, guaranteed rental housing, and various types of resettlement housing, with a total of 50,000 rental housing units planned for construction by 2025 [1] Group 2: Financial Updates - Shenzhen Metro Group provided a loan of up to 1.666 billion yuan to Vanke A for repaying bond principal and interest, with a loan term of no more than 3 years and an interest rate of 2.34% [2] - CIFI Holdings reported a contract sales amount of approximately 1.1 billion yuan in October, with a sales area of about 113,300 square meters and an average contract sales price of 10,100 yuan per square meter [3] - New City Holdings achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 1.419 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year decrease of 4.38%, with a sales area of about 191,500 square meters, down 9.37% year-on-year [4] - R&F Properties announced the restructuring of a domestic bond with a principal balance of approximately 1.68 billion yuan, which was approved in a bondholder meeting [5]

Group 1 - The company achieved a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 1.186 billion yuan in October 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.65% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative commercial operating revenue reached approximately 11.696 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.49% [1] - The rental income includes rent, management fees, parking fees, and other miscellaneous management fees [1] Group 2 - In October 2025, the company realized a contract sales amount of approximately 1.419 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 191,500 square meters [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative contract sales amount was approximately 16.468 billion yuan, with a cumulative contract sales area of about 2.1506 million square meters [1]