2026年03月08日 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略： 潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 着力稳痘房地产市场，增加居民财产 灵活高效运用降准降息 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/2/28-2026/3/6） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回升，新房成交推盘比小幅回落。上周(2.28- 0 3.6)34 个重点城市新房合计成交 181.3 万平米,环比+69%,其中,一 二线环比 +78.2%，三四线环比-3%。3 月(3.1-3. ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 08 日 着力稳定房地产市场，增加居民财产性收入， 灵活高效运用降准降息 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/2/28-2026/3/6） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 报 告 房地产 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房 ...

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2026-006 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、商业不动产 REITs 的基本情况及相关决策事项 为响应《中国证监会关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告》《关于推 动不动产投资信托基金（REITs）市场高质量发展有关工作的通知》等政策号召， 进一步构筑新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"新城控股"）不动 产经营专业能力，优化资本结构，增强核心竞争力和可持续发展能力，公司拟以持 有的商业不动产项目作为底层资产，开展公开募集不动产投资信托基金（REITs） （以下简称"商业不动产 REITs"）申报发行工作。 公司于 2025 年 3 月 27 日召开第四届董事会第八次会议，并于 2025 年 5 月 26 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于公司开展直接融资工作的议案》， 同意公司（含控股子公司）进行规模不超过等额人民币 200 亿元（含境外等值外币） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The government work report for 2026 emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, continuing the focus from the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference. In 2025, the total transaction volume of commercial housing was 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, with transaction value at 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. Housing prices in first and second-tier cities have been declining since May 2025, with January 2026 seeing year-on-year price drops of 7.6%, 6.2%, and 6.1% in first, second, and third-tier cities respectively [3][4] Summary by Sections Stabilizing the Real Estate Market - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which is under pressure. It suggests that controlling inventory and enhancing housing demand are key strategies [3] Inventory and Housing Demand - The report mentions the need for city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. As of December 2025, the nationwide unsold commercial housing area was 770 million square meters, with 400 million square meters being unsold residential properties, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% and 2.8% respectively. The inventory turnover period is approximately 29.97 months [3][4] Housing Fund System Reform - The report indicates that the housing provident fund loan limits may be further relaxed, with Shanghai raising the maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan, and potentially up to 3.24 million yuan for families with multiple children [3] Optimizing Affordable Housing Supply - The report discusses the optimization of affordable housing supply and the acceleration of the renovation of dilapidated housing. Initiatives in Shanghai to acquire second-hand homes for affordable rental housing are highlighted as a way to meet the needs of new citizens and young talents [3][4] Urban Renewal - The report emphasizes the high-quality advancement of urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old neighborhoods and villages. It notes the significant existing stock of urban housing, which can be improved through urban renewal initiatives [4] Financing Support - The report mentions the role of the "white list" system in ensuring the delivery of housing projects, with over 7 trillion yuan in loans for "white list" projects as of October 2025 [4] Advancing New Models - The report outlines the need to advance new models for real estate development, including reforms in development, financing, and sales processes. It suggests that these new models will help coordinate and regulate various aspects of the real estate market [4] Offline Consumption - The report highlights the importance of offline consumption in the real estate sector, particularly in commercial real estate such as shopping centers and cultural tourism parks, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer activity [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as the industry transitions to a phase of high-quality development, valuations may recover. It identifies several companies as favorable investment opportunities, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Debt Risk**: The macro debt risk is converging, with an expected addition of 160 trillion in debt from 2020 to 2025, of which 140 trillion is anticipated to convert into household deposits. Infrastructure investment is expected to remain a core demand driver through 2026 [1][2][3]. Company Insights Zhongtian Technology (中天科技) - **Profit Forecast Adjustment**: The profit forecast for Zhongtian Technology has been significantly raised, with net profit expectations for 2026 increased to 5.6 billion (+27%). This adjustment is primarily driven by the optical communication segment, where gross margin estimates have been revised from 27% to 37% due to price adjustments in collective procurement [1][7]. - **Business Structure**: Zhongtian Technology operates in four main segments: optical communication, power transmission, marine business, and new energy. The optical communication segment, particularly fiber optic cables, is highlighted as a key focus due to ongoing price increases [6][9]. - **Market Position**: The company is well-positioned in both domestic and international markets, with significant orders from European operators in the marine segment [6][8]. Financial Sector - **Insurance Sector Outlook**: The insurance industry is expected to show resilience with a growth rate of 15%-20%. The financial sector is anticipated to recover gradually, with income projected to return to 4-5% over the next 3-5 years [5][20]. - **Banking Sector**: Ningbo Bank, which supports industrial upgrades, is expected to yield better returns compared to its peers [5]. Real Estate Sector - **Sales Decline**: The top 100 developers experienced a 32% year-on-year decline in sales from January to February, with expectations of a further 30% decline in the first quarter of 2026. The real estate sector is advised to reduce holdings due to high valuations compared to historical averages [1][15][19]. - **Valuation Concerns**: Current valuations of real estate stocks are significantly higher than those during the 2016-2020 upcycle, with companies like Vanke and Jindi showing valuations approximately 5 times higher than historical levels [19][20]. - **New City Holdings**: Long-term attention is recommended for New City Holdings due to recent capital market activities that have alleviated liquidity risks and potential for asset value enhancement through restructuring [20]. Shipping and Oil Transportation - **Market Dynamics**: The oil shipping market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which has led to increased freight rates and operational challenges. SynoCor controls about 20% of spot market capacity, impacting pricing strategies [9][11][12]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Events**: The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has caused immediate changes in oil transport dynamics, with shipping rates reflecting risk premiums and operational inefficiencies [9][10][11]. Infrastructure Investment - **Continued Importance**: Infrastructure investment is viewed as a critical support for demand in 2026, providing employment and stabilizing industrial profits. The government is expected to gradually shift fiscal resources from infrastructure to consumption to mitigate uncertainties [3][4]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted significant adjustments in profit forecasts for Zhongtian Technology, ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on the shipping industry. The financial sector shows potential for recovery, particularly in insurance, while infrastructure investment remains a key focus for economic stability.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [7] Core Insights - The report presents a contrarian view, suggesting that while there are expectations for a market turning point due to declining listings and stabilizing prices in core cities, further observation is necessary. The improvement in the housing market is attributed to specific factors, including seasonal demand and policy expectations, particularly in Shanghai [2][3] - The government’s policy direction remains focused on risk prevention, safeguarding livelihoods, and reducing financialization in the real estate sector. Despite expectations for a new round of large-scale real estate stimulus, the report indicates that substantial changes in policy are unlikely [3] - The introduction of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" has significantly lowered entry barriers for first-time homebuyers, indicating a shift from inventory reduction to demand expansion in Shanghai's housing market. This policy is expected to stimulate market recovery, particularly in the context of seasonal demand [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector has shown a weekly increase of 0.61%, with Hong Kong-listed property companies outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 3.62% [14][19] - Individual stock performance highlights include a 12.72% increase for Black Peony in A-shares and a 7.59% increase for Sun Hung Kai Properties in H-shares [19][22] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - The average listing price in first-tier cities has seen a slight week-on-week decline of 0.11%, while the number of listings has increased by 0.36% in first-tier cities, aligning with seasonal trends [24][30] - Transaction volumes for second-hand homes have shown significant recovery since the Spring Festival, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing a year-on-year increase of 104% [38][53] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home sales have rebounded post-Spring Festival, with a year-on-year increase of 41.35% in ten sample cities, although Shanghai and Shenzhen saw declines of 3.2% and 40% respectively [62] - The inventory of new homes in first-tier cities has decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, indicating a tightening market [64][67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on local state-owned enterprises and nationally strong real estate companies in Shanghai and other first-tier cities, as these are expected to benefit from ongoing policy easing and market stabilization [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards "HALO trading" in both US and A-share markets, moving away from high-valuation tech stocks to lower-valuation, asset-heavy sectors due to concerns over tech valuations and potential AI disruptions [2][5][6] - The report identifies "HALO assets" as a strategic choice for long-term investors who prefer stability over chasing tech stocks, highlighting the importance of selecting high-quality investments within this category [6][7] - It suggests two investment strategies: offensive and defensive HALO approaches, allowing investors to diversify their portfolios while managing risk [6][7] A-share HALO Trading - A-share HALO assets are characterized by their cyclical, stable, and heavy manufacturing nature, which become attractive when their valuation advantages are clear [6] - The report advises careful selection within HALO investments, focusing on those with strong cash flows and solid long-term barriers to entry [6] Fund Grouping Perspective - The report outlines two strategies for fund grouping: defensive selections with low correlation to mainline stocks and offensive selections targeting sectors with potential growth catalysts [6] - Historical data indicates that a three-year investment horizon can yield significant excess returns when following these strategies [6] Configuration Directions - Offensive HALO investments include sectors benefiting from price increases and international expansion, such as agricultural chemicals, high-end manufacturing, and brokerage firms [7] - Defensive HALO investments focus on industries with low holdings, such as coal and construction, and sectors with low correlation to technology, like petrochemicals [7] Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including TCL Electronics, ShouLiu Hotel, Anjui Food, Muyuan Foods, Qibin Group, New Town Holdings, COSCO Shipping Energy, Daimai Co., Chipone Technology, and Lenovo Group, highlighting their potential for growth [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core View - The market sentiment is dominated by risk - aversion, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decreased by 15 and 10 basis points respectively last week to 3.94% and 3.37%. Although recent data shows a rebound in US inflation pressure, risk - aversion sentiment has overshadowed this, causing the yields to drop [1][2][3]. - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has escalated, with the US and Israel launching military actions against Iran and Iran counter - attacking and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which may affect inflation. The military action may last for four weeks, and in the short term, US Treasuries may remain volatile under the resonance of risk - aversion and rising inflation expectations. Higher - than - expected inflation data and the rise in energy prices triggered by geopolitical conflicts have further reduced the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in March [1][3]. - Driven by the significant decline in US Treasury yields, Chinese dollar - denominated bonds performed well last week, with the Bloomberg Barclays Chinese dollar - denominated bond total return index rising 0.4% for the week. Among them, the high - rating index rose 0.5% and the high - yield index rose 0.2% [1][3]. - In the on - shore market, after the Spring Festival, the central bank net - withdrew short - term liquidity of 611.4 billion RMB through reverse repurchase operations and net - injected long - term funds of 300 billion RMB through MLF over - renewal. Bank - to - bank funding rates have rebounded significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. The 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields were flat and up 2 basis points respectively compared to before the Spring Festival, reaching 1.38% and 1.82%. The domestic interest - rate bond market was also boosted by risk - aversion sentiment on Monday, with yields on Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declining. The Two Sessions will be held this week, and the 2026 economic targets, fiscal support, and possible release of more monetary policy signals will be priced in the bond market [1][4]. 3. Summary by Category Off - shore Market - The issuance of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds remained light, with only one new issuance of over $100 million for the whole week. In contrast, the issuance of off - shore RMB bonds was quite active, with a total issuance of 65.5 billion RMB for the whole week, mainly driven by the issuance of 50 billion RMB central bank bills by the People's Bank of China [2]. - The significant decline in US Treasury yields was due to the market being dominated by risk - aversion sentiment. Although recent inflation data in the US has rebounded, the geopolitical risk has significantly escalated, and the US Treasury market has priced in the war risk in advance [2][3]. On - shore Market - After the Spring Festival, funds flowed back to the banking system. The central bank adjusted the liquidity through reverse repurchase operations and MLF. Bank - to - bank funding rates increased, and the yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds changed compared to before the Spring Festival. The domestic interest - rate bond market was affected by risk - aversion sentiment, and the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities declined. The upcoming Two Sessions may bring new economic and policy signals to the bond market [1][4]. List of Chinese Dollar - denominated Bonds The documents provide a detailed list of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds, including information such as issuers, guarantors, coupon rates, issuance amounts, maturities, and ratings [7][17][23].

Core Insights - The report highlights a potential turning point in consumer behavior in China, suggesting that consumption may rise despite the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, contrary to common market beliefs [9] - It emphasizes the U-shaped characteristic of consumer inclination around real estate turning points, indicating that consumer spending may improve before income does [9] - The report discusses the three effects of real estate industry changes on the economy: income effect, wealth effect, and crowding-out effect, with varying impacts at different development stages [9] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report identifies that the first five years of the "post-real estate era" are dominated by the income effect, which negatively impacts consumer spending due to the downturn in real estate [9] - It notes that after the peak of the real estate cycle in 2020, disposable income growth and residential investment as a percentage of GDP have shown a downward trend, consistent with international patterns [9] - The report predicts that in the fifth to tenth years of the "post-real estate era," the crowding-out effect will weaken, leading to an improvement in consumer inclination and spending [9] Currency and Exchange Rate Insights - The report discusses the recent acceleration of the RMB appreciation since late January 2026, with the central bank's actions aimed at curbing this rapid rise [10][11] - It analyzes the potential impacts of the central bank's adjustments to the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, suggesting that while it may stabilize the pace of appreciation, it is unlikely to change the overall trend [12] - The report anticipates that the RMB may experience short-term adjustments but could continue a steady appreciation in the medium to long term, driven by market forces [12] Transportation and Shipping Industry Insights - The report indicates that the current shipping market is experiencing an uptrend due to a broader energy chain cycle, with oil tankers and dry bulk shipping showing strong correlations [13][16] - It highlights the significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rates, reaching $200,000 per day, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical tensions [16] - The report recommends specific shipping companies, such as China Shipping and ST Songfa, as potential investment opportunities due to the favorable market conditions [16]

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong recovery in the real estate market, supported by recent policy changes and seasonal demand, particularly in Shanghai [5][16][17] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, reflecting confidence in the long-term growth potential despite short-term fluctuations [2][5] Policy Developments - Shanghai has implemented significant policy changes, including reducing the social security requirement for home purchases from three years to one year, which is expected to stimulate demand [5][17][18] - The new policies also increase the public housing loan limit from 1.6 million to 3.24 million RMB, providing substantial support for first-time homebuyers [5][17] Market Performance - New home transactions in 50 cities increased by 31.8% week-on-week, with a year-on-year growth of 14.6% post-Spring Festival [5][9] - The second-hand housing market showed a remarkable recovery, with transaction volumes in 11 cities rising by 82.4% week-on-week and 39% year-on-year [5][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - New housing supply remains low, with a 21% decrease in new home launches week-on-week, indicating a potential supply peak in the coming weeks [5][9] - The inventory of second-hand homes in 140 cities remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1% in key cities, suggesting a balanced market [5][9] Land Market Activity - The land auction market saw a significant increase in transaction value, with 260 billion RMB in land sales across 300 cities, marking a substantial rise compared to previous weeks [5][9] - Notably, a land parcel in Guangzhou achieved the second-highest total price in the city's history, indicating renewed interest in prime locations [5][9] Company Performance - The report highlights strong performances from major real estate companies, with notable gains from China Overseas Land, China Overseas Grand Oceans, and China Resources Land [5][9] - The overall performance of the real estate sector was slightly below the broader market, with a 0.6% increase compared to a 0.5% underperformance against the CSI 300 index [5][9] C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector experienced a decline of 0.85% in the comprehensive return index, with 17 out of 78 REITs showing gains [5][9] - The report notes ongoing progress in the commercial real estate REITs, with two new applications submitted this week, bringing the total to 14 [5][9]