2026 年 3 月 6 日，上交所官网显示广发新城吾悦封闭式商业 REIT 已获受理。考虑 企业此前私募 REITs 和美元债发行，公司已实现多层次融资突破。 投资要点： | 风险提示。1）行业规模具有缩量风险；2）市场修复不及预期。 | | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 119,174 | 88,999 | 58,475 | 53,687 | 54,549 | | (+/-)% | 3.2% | -25.3% | -34.3% | -8.2% | 1.6% | | 净利润(归母) | 737 | 752 | 838 | 1,152 | 1,377 | | (+/-)% | -47.1% | 2.1% | 11.4% | 37.4% | 19.5% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 0.61 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.2% | 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its equity financing channels by applying for commercial real estate REITs, aiming to raise 1.625 billion yuan, which will help create a positive cycle of investment, financing, management, and exit [4]. - The underlying assets for the REIT include two commercial properties with stable operational performance and good asset quality, with expected distribution rates of 5.5% and 5.59% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The company has shown a significant increase in its commercial revenue and gross profit contribution, with commercial revenue accounting for 29% and gross profit for 77% in the first half of 2025, compared to 14% and 48% in 2024 [6]. - The company successfully issued a $355 million credit bond, indicating improved creditworthiness and financing capabilities, which will alleviate debt pressure [6]. - The sales performance has shown a decline, with a 52% year-on-year drop in sales amount for 2025, but the average selling price has started to recover, suggesting a potential stabilization in value [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to decline from 88,999 million yuan in 2024 to 47,421 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.3% and 20.7% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 945 million yuan in 2025 to 1,113 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 17.8% [5]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve from 24.9% in 2025 to 30.0% in 2026, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.6% in 2026, and further to 2.4% in 2027, suggesting enhanced profitability [5].

新城發展控股有限公司（「本公司」）董 事（「董 事」）會（「董事會」）欣 然 公 佈，為 響 應 中華人民共和國（「中 國」）相 關 部 門 發 佈 的 利 好 政 策，進 一 步 提 升 本 公 司 子 公 司 新城控股集團股份有限公司（「新城控股」）（其A股於上海證券交易所（「上交所」） 上 市，證 券 代 碼：601155）的 不 動 產 經 營 專 業 能 力、優 化 其 資 本 結 構 以 及 增 強 其 核 心 競 爭 力 及 可 持 續 發 展 能 力，新 城 控 股 於2026年3月6日 宣 佈，已 啟 動 以 其 商 業不動產項目作為底層資產的商業不動產投資信託基金（「商業不動產REITs」） 申報公開發行工作（「新城控股公告」）。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 SEAZEN GROUP LIMITED 新城發展控股有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market, with a shift from risk prevention to supporting people's livelihoods, particularly for newly married and newborn families [5][16][17] - The "small spring" recovery trend in the real estate market continues, with significant increases in new and second-hand housing transactions across various cities [5][9] - The report indicates a notable improvement in new housing supply, although the overall supply levels have not yet returned to normal [5][9] Policy Overview - The central government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with a target economic growth rate adjusted to 4.5%-5% for 2026 and a budget deficit maintained at 4% [16][18] - The government aims to enhance fiscal efficiency by allocating 755 billion yuan for central budget investments and 800 billion yuan for long-term special bonds [16][18] - There is a clear intention to support the housing needs of new citizens and young families, with policies expected to strengthen throughout the year [17][19] Market Performance - New housing transactions in 50 cities increased by 183% week-on-week, with a year-on-year growth of 20.7% [5][9] - Second-hand housing transactions also saw a significant rise, with an increase of 189% week-on-week in 11 cities and a year-on-year growth of 13% [5][9] - The report notes that the transaction volume for second-hand homes has maintained a positive trend, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 36.1% since the beginning of the "small spring" [5][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - New housing launches improved significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 557%, although the supply remains below normal levels [5][9] - The report highlights a slight increase in second-hand housing listings, with a 0.2% week-on-week rise in 140 cities, indicating a slow recovery in the market [5][9] - The land supply has increased, but transaction performance has been poor, with a total land sale revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, down 73.2% week-on-week [5][9] Capital Market Insights - The real estate sector underperformed in the capital market, with a decline of 4.1% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [5][9] - Major real estate companies experienced varying degrees of decline, with some companies like China Overseas Land and Investment showing smaller declines compared to others [5][9] - The report notes that the C-REITs sector continues to develop, with 14 applications currently under review, indicating a proactive approach to commercial real estate investment trusts [5][9]

2026年03月08日 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略： 潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 着力稳痘房地产市场，增加居民财产 灵活高效运用降准降息 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/2/28-2026/3/6） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回升，新房成交推盘比小幅回落。上周(2.28- 0 3.6)34 个重点城市新房合计成交 181.3 万平米,环比+69%,其中,一 二线环比 +78.2%，三四线环比-3%。3 月(3.1-3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating optimism for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][34]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in new home sales, with a 69% week-on-week increase in 34 key cities, although year-on-year sales are down 32.1% [2][3]. - The government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, increasing residents' property income, and effectively utilizing monetary policy tools such as interest rate cuts [2][26]. - The report suggests that the industry is nearing a bottom after significant adjustments, with a more favorable policy environment emerging [2][34]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 1.813 million square meters, a 69% increase week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 78.2% rise [2][3]. - Year-on-year sales for March show a decline of 32.1%, with first and second-tier cities down 29.7% and third-tier cities down 55.9% [4][6]. Inventory and Supply - In the last week, 15 cities launched 340,000 square meters of new homes, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 2.14, indicating strong demand relative to supply [20][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 88.055 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.44% week-on-week [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The government is implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including policies to control inventory and improve supply [26][29]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to use various monetary policy tools flexibly to support economic growth and stabilize asset prices [26][29]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings has received approval for its commercial real estate REITs, indicating a move towards diversifying funding sources [34]. - Several real estate companies reported significant declines in sales for February, with China Overseas Development at 8.46 billion yuan (-35.9%) and CIFI Holdings at 5.3 billion yuan (-67.1%) [34].

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2026-006 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、商业不动产 REITs 的基本情况及相关决策事项 为响应《中国证监会关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告》《关于推 动不动产投资信托基金（REITs）市场高质量发展有关工作的通知》等政策号召， 进一步构筑新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"新城控股"）不动 产经营专业能力，优化资本结构，增强核心竞争力和可持续发展能力，公司拟以持 有的商业不动产项目作为底层资产，开展公开募集不动产投资信托基金（REITs） （以下简称"商业不动产 REITs"）申报发行工作。 公司于 2025 年 3 月 27 日召开第四届董事会第八次会议，并于 2025 年 5 月 26 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于公司开展直接融资工作的议案》， 同意公司（含控股子公司）进行规模不超过等额人民币 200 亿元（含境外等值外币） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The government work report for 2026 emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, continuing the focus from the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference. In 2025, the total transaction volume of commercial housing was 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, with transaction value at 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. Housing prices in first and second-tier cities have been declining since May 2025, with January 2026 seeing year-on-year price drops of 7.6%, 6.2%, and 6.1% in first, second, and third-tier cities respectively [3][4] Summary by Sections Stabilizing the Real Estate Market - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which is under pressure. It suggests that controlling inventory and enhancing housing demand are key strategies [3] Inventory and Housing Demand - The report mentions the need for city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. As of December 2025, the nationwide unsold commercial housing area was 770 million square meters, with 400 million square meters being unsold residential properties, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% and 2.8% respectively. The inventory turnover period is approximately 29.97 months [3][4] Housing Fund System Reform - The report indicates that the housing provident fund loan limits may be further relaxed, with Shanghai raising the maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan, and potentially up to 3.24 million yuan for families with multiple children [3] Optimizing Affordable Housing Supply - The report discusses the optimization of affordable housing supply and the acceleration of the renovation of dilapidated housing. Initiatives in Shanghai to acquire second-hand homes for affordable rental housing are highlighted as a way to meet the needs of new citizens and young talents [3][4] Urban Renewal - The report emphasizes the high-quality advancement of urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old neighborhoods and villages. It notes the significant existing stock of urban housing, which can be improved through urban renewal initiatives [4] Financing Support - The report mentions the role of the "white list" system in ensuring the delivery of housing projects, with over 7 trillion yuan in loans for "white list" projects as of October 2025 [4] Advancing New Models - The report outlines the need to advance new models for real estate development, including reforms in development, financing, and sales processes. It suggests that these new models will help coordinate and regulate various aspects of the real estate market [4] Offline Consumption - The report highlights the importance of offline consumption in the real estate sector, particularly in commercial real estate such as shopping centers and cultural tourism parks, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer activity [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as the industry transitions to a phase of high-quality development, valuations may recover. It identifies several companies as favorable investment opportunities, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Debt Risk**: The macro debt risk is converging, with an expected addition of 160 trillion in debt from 2020 to 2025, of which 140 trillion is anticipated to convert into household deposits. Infrastructure investment is expected to remain a core demand driver through 2026 [1][2][3]. Company Insights Zhongtian Technology (中天科技) - **Profit Forecast Adjustment**: The profit forecast for Zhongtian Technology has been significantly raised, with net profit expectations for 2026 increased to 5.6 billion (+27%). This adjustment is primarily driven by the optical communication segment, where gross margin estimates have been revised from 27% to 37% due to price adjustments in collective procurement [1][7]. - **Business Structure**: Zhongtian Technology operates in four main segments: optical communication, power transmission, marine business, and new energy. The optical communication segment, particularly fiber optic cables, is highlighted as a key focus due to ongoing price increases [6][9]. - **Market Position**: The company is well-positioned in both domestic and international markets, with significant orders from European operators in the marine segment [6][8]. Financial Sector - **Insurance Sector Outlook**: The insurance industry is expected to show resilience with a growth rate of 15%-20%. The financial sector is anticipated to recover gradually, with income projected to return to 4-5% over the next 3-5 years [5][20]. - **Banking Sector**: Ningbo Bank, which supports industrial upgrades, is expected to yield better returns compared to its peers [5]. Real Estate Sector - **Sales Decline**: The top 100 developers experienced a 32% year-on-year decline in sales from January to February, with expectations of a further 30% decline in the first quarter of 2026. The real estate sector is advised to reduce holdings due to high valuations compared to historical averages [1][15][19]. - **Valuation Concerns**: Current valuations of real estate stocks are significantly higher than those during the 2016-2020 upcycle, with companies like Vanke and Jindi showing valuations approximately 5 times higher than historical levels [19][20]. - **New City Holdings**: Long-term attention is recommended for New City Holdings due to recent capital market activities that have alleviated liquidity risks and potential for asset value enhancement through restructuring [20]. Shipping and Oil Transportation - **Market Dynamics**: The oil shipping market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which has led to increased freight rates and operational challenges. SynoCor controls about 20% of spot market capacity, impacting pricing strategies [9][11][12]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Events**: The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has caused immediate changes in oil transport dynamics, with shipping rates reflecting risk premiums and operational inefficiencies [9][10][11]. Infrastructure Investment - **Continued Importance**: Infrastructure investment is viewed as a critical support for demand in 2026, providing employment and stabilizing industrial profits. The government is expected to gradually shift fiscal resources from infrastructure to consumption to mitigate uncertainties [3][4]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted significant adjustments in profit forecasts for Zhongtian Technology, ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on the shipping industry. The financial sector shows potential for recovery, particularly in insurance, while infrastructure investment remains a key focus for economic stability.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [7] Core Insights - The report presents a contrarian view, suggesting that while there are expectations for a market turning point due to declining listings and stabilizing prices in core cities, further observation is necessary. The improvement in the housing market is attributed to specific factors, including seasonal demand and policy expectations, particularly in Shanghai [2][3] - The government’s policy direction remains focused on risk prevention, safeguarding livelihoods, and reducing financialization in the real estate sector. Despite expectations for a new round of large-scale real estate stimulus, the report indicates that substantial changes in policy are unlikely [3] - The introduction of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" has significantly lowered entry barriers for first-time homebuyers, indicating a shift from inventory reduction to demand expansion in Shanghai's housing market. This policy is expected to stimulate market recovery, particularly in the context of seasonal demand [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector has shown a weekly increase of 0.61%, with Hong Kong-listed property companies outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 3.62% [14][19] - Individual stock performance highlights include a 12.72% increase for Black Peony in A-shares and a 7.59% increase for Sun Hung Kai Properties in H-shares [19][22] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - The average listing price in first-tier cities has seen a slight week-on-week decline of 0.11%, while the number of listings has increased by 0.36% in first-tier cities, aligning with seasonal trends [24][30] - Transaction volumes for second-hand homes have shown significant recovery since the Spring Festival, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing a year-on-year increase of 104% [38][53] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home sales have rebounded post-Spring Festival, with a year-on-year increase of 41.35% in ten sample cities, although Shanghai and Shenzhen saw declines of 3.2% and 40% respectively [62] - The inventory of new homes in first-tier cities has decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, indicating a tightening market [64][67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on local state-owned enterprises and nationally strong real estate companies in Shanghai and other first-tier cities, as these are expected to benefit from ongoing policy easing and market stabilization [6]