Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has officially entered a new development stage of "stabilization and quality upgrade" in 2025, with significant improvements in delivery capabilities and buyer confidence [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The central government continues to deepen the real estate financing whitelist system, with over 7.5 million historically delayed housing units completed and the pilot of selling completed homes expanding [1] - The asset-liability structure of companies has substantially improved, with a stable delivery pattern characterized by quality upgrades and steady volume [1] - Leading real estate companies have stabilized their delivery scales, and the ability of distressed companies to fulfill commitments has significantly recovered [1] Group 2: Delivery Capability Assessment - The "2025 China Real Estate Enterprise Delivery Capability TOP 50" evaluates companies based on total delivery scale, timeliness, satisfaction, and completeness of delivery systems [13] - The top 50 companies have become the main force in ensuring delivery, with an increasing proportion of high-quality improvement projects [16] Group 3: Policy and Mechanisms - The central government has established a long-term policy mechanism for the real estate market, focusing on ensuring delivery, preventing risks, and stabilizing expectations [15] - Key measures include the normalization of the real estate financing whitelist, full-cycle supervision of pre-sale funds, and the expansion of the completed home sales pilot [15] Group 4: Delivery Quality and Experience - Delivery capability has evolved from merely "on-time delivery" to a comprehensive ability encompassing full-process systems, precision craftsmanship, and full-cycle services [19] - The delivery process now integrates design and operation, creating a complete loop that enhances the value from "building good homes" to "living well" [19] Group 5: Notable Delivery Projects - The top delivery projects of 2025 include high-end, light luxury, and quality works, showcasing the industry's focus on quality and customer experience [6][9][11] - Notable projects include "Poly Tianrui" in Guangzhou and "Beijing Yuefu," reflecting the industry's commitment to high standards [6][9]

Summary of China Property Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** sector, specifically discussing trends in home sales, construction activity, and market sentiment in early 2026 [1][4]. Key Points Home Sales and Market Sentiment - Home sales in the first two months of 2026 experienced a **20% year-on-year decline in value** and a **14% year-on-year decline in volume**, showing a milder drop compared to December 2025 [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a **0.3% month-on-month drop** in primary market prices and a **0.4% month-on-month drop** in secondary markets in February 2026 [2] - A forecast indicates a **deeper decline in home sales** for March 2026 due to reactive policy stances, higher inventory levels, and weakened buyer sentiment [1][4] Construction Activity - Construction activity continued to decline, with **completions falling by 28% year-on-year** and **new starts down by 23% year-on-year** in the first two months of 2026 [3] - Real estate investment (REI) dropped to **-11% year-on-year**, a significant improvement from **-36% in December 2025**, attributed to depleted landbanks and seasonal factors [3] Price Trends - The physical market is expected to weaken further, with predictions of **-8% and -6% year-on-year declines in secondary home prices** for 2026-2027 [4] - The NBS data indicates that the **total sales value of residential properties** was **Rmb 819 billion** in 2026, down **20.2% year-on-year** [6] Developer Performance - Developer stocks have dropped over **15% on average** since late January 2026, indicating a challenging environment despite a sentiment-driven rally earlier in the year [5] - The report highlights specific companies under pressure, including **Greentown, Jinmao, Longfor, Vanke, and Gemdale Corp** [5] Investment Recommendations - The analysis favors quality companies with strong operational stories, such as: - **CR Land** and **Seazen A** for their potential as strong mall operators with C-REIT potential - **C&D International Investment Group** for its outlook on margin and earnings recovery [5] Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics for the residential sector include: - **Total GFA sold**: 93 million sqm, down **13.5% year-on-year** - **Total RE investment**: Rmb 961 billion, down **11.1% year-on-year** - **Total GFA completion**: 63 million sqm, down **27.9% year-on-year** [6] Additional Insights - The conference call emphasized the lack of incremental housing stimulus from the National People's Congress (NPC) meeting, which could further exacerbate the decline in home sales [4] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations of continued pressure on home sales and prices into the results season [5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China Property industry.

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 17 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 38 号文要求新增用地与存量盘活挂钩，上海二手房成交活跃 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/3/7-26/3/13） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.7%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.5%、沪深 300 上 升 0.2%、房地产（申万）下跌 0.5%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：京投发展(+25.0%)、 西藏城投(+13.4%)、*ST 阳光(+9.3%)、首开股份(+9.2%)、沙河股份(+9.0%)，涨跌幅后五的 分别为：财信发展(-8.6%)、*ST 荣控(-8.2%)、特发服务(-6.5%)、新黄浦(-5.7%)、深深房 A(-5.3%)。 联系人 数据跟 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, with a focus on real estate companies with abundant resources in core cities. The central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market is evident, and companies capable of revitalizing existing assets and those with a strong presence in core cities are expected to benefit in the long term [1][2]. - Key recommendations include companies with "good credit, good cities, and good products," such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land, as well as firms that can manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments, like Longfor Group and New City Holdings [1][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - In January-February, real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the decline rate narrowed by 25 percentage points compared to December. New construction and completion areas saw a year-on-year decline of 23% and 28%, respectively, with the decline in new construction expanding by 4 percentage points compared to December [2]. - The total construction area nationwide decreased by 12% year-on-year as of February, with inventory levels showing a slight increase of 0.1% in unsold residential properties [2]. Sales Performance - The real estate market is still adjusting, with sales volume and value showing a year-on-year decline of 14% and 20%, respectively, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to December. The average selling price decreased by 7.7% year-on-year [3]. - The price index for new homes in 70 cities fell by 3.5% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in property prices [3]. Cash Flow Situation - The cash flow situation for real estate companies remains challenging, with funds received in January-February down by 17% year-on-year. Specifically, deposits and pre-sales dropped by 22%, and personal mortgage loans fell by 42% [4]. - Although domestic loans and self-raised funds saw a reduction in their decline rates, the overall cash flow improvement remains limited due to significant drops in mortgage loans and pre-sale deposits [4]. Recommended Companies - The report highlights several companies for investment, including Longfor Group, Greentown Service, and China Overseas Development, all rated as "Buy" with specific target prices indicating potential upside [8][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical tensions persist, and concerns about inflation have led to a decline in US Treasuries. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen significantly, with the 2 - year yield rising more, reflecting concerns about limited Fed rate - cut space due to rising inflation expectations. The situation's uncertainty remains high, and the duration of the Holmuiz Strait's navigation restrictions is crucial [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks, with the Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index falling 0.5% last week [1][3]. - In the on - shore market, the yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds have risen. Factors such as improved inflation expectations, good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and reduced expectations of future monetary policy easing have jointly promoted the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [1][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Off - shore Market - There were 3 new issuances of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds exceeding $100 million last week, totaling $1.45 billion, mainly financial bonds; about 17.5 billion RMB of off - shore RMB bonds were newly issued, also mainly financial bonds [2]. - The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries rose 14 and 16 basis points respectively to 4.28% and 3.72% last week, mainly due to market concerns about potential inflation problems caused by the continuous high oil price [1][2]. - Key - term US Treasuries have fully reversed all their gains this year. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen 11 and 24 basis points respectively compared to the end of 2025 [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks. The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index fell 0.5% last week, and the spread narrowed by 2 basis points. Among them, the high - rating index fell 0.5%, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points; the high - yield index fell 0.4%, and the spread widened by 3 basis points [1][3]. On - shore Market - The People's Bank of China net - withdrew 10.11 billion RMB of short - term liquidity through reverse repurchase operations last week, and inter - bank funding rates rebounded. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 5 and 1 basis points respectively to 1.46% and 1.50% [4]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds rose 1 and 3 basis points respectively to 1.37% and 1.81% last week [4]. - February's inflation data showed improved price pressure, and the continuous geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, improving market expectations of subsequent inflation. The macro data from January to February showed good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and although retail data was still weak, it was better than market expectations. Coupled with the guidance of the People's Bank of China, market expectations of future monetary policy easing have weakened, jointly promoting the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [4]. Recent Newly Issued Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Beijing Construction Engineering (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. issued bonds with a coupon rate of 4.10%, an issue amount of $300 million, and a maturity date of March 19, 2029 [5]. Appendix: List of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The appendix provides a detailed list of various Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issue amount, maturity date, and ratings from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch [17][19][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is implementing a dual-wheel drive strategy, focusing on both commercial operations and residential development, which has strengthened its competitive position and financial stability [12][16] - The commercial property segment has become the main source of profit, with a gross profit margin of 71.20% in the first half of 2025, contributing 77.06% to the overall gross profit [7][29] - The company has a national commercial layout with stable rental income growth, achieving a rental income of 6.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [7][44] - The residential development segment is focused on inventory reduction, with a contract sales amount of 10.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 56.4% [7][60] - The financial structure is continuously optimized, with a debt ratio of 65.6% after excluding advance receipts, and a significant reduction in short-term debt [7][72] Summary by Sections 1. Dual-Wheel Drive Strategy - The company operates under a dual-wheel drive model, integrating residential development and commercial operations [16][19] - The management team has extensive industry experience, contributing to stable governance and operational efficiency [17][19] 2. Commercial Operations - The company has expanded its national footprint, with 174 operational "Wuyue Plaza" shopping centers covering 1,608 million square meters [37][42] - The rental income and occupancy rates remain robust, with an occupancy rate of 97.8% [44][49] - The light-asset model is being adopted, with 26 light-asset projects contributing 11% to total rental income [53][58] 3. Residential Development - The company is focused on inventory reduction, with a significant portion of its inventory located in second- and third-tier cities [67][70] - The average contract sales price has stabilized at 10,072 yuan per square meter [64][66] 4. Financial Analysis - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt to 52.3 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 65.6% [72][74] - The financing cost has decreased to 5.55%, indicating improved financial conditions [79][81] - The company has successfully issued multiple bonds and maintains a stable credit rating, facilitating ongoing financing [81][82]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company is implementing a dual-wheel drive strategy, focusing on both commercial operations and residential development, which has strengthened its competitive position and financial stability [12][16]. - The commercial property segment has become the main source of profit, with a gross profit margin of 71.20% in the first half of 2025, contributing 77.06% to the overall gross profit [7][29]. - The company has a robust national commercial layout, with 174 operational "Wuyue Plaza" locations and a rental income of 6.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [7][44]. - The residential development segment is focused on inventory reduction, with a contract sales amount of 10.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 56.4% year-on-year [60]. - The financial structure is continuously optimized, with a debt ratio of 65.6% after excluding advance receipts, and a significant reduction in short-term debt [72][73]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual-Wheel Drive Strategy - The company operates under a dual-wheel drive model, integrating residential development and commercial operations, which has proven effective during industry adjustments [12][16]. - The management team has extensive industry experience, contributing to stable governance and operational efficiency [19]. 2. Commercial Operations - The company has expanded its national footprint, with a total operational area of 16.08 million square meters and a rental rate of 97.8% [35][44]. - The commercial operations have shown resilience, with a total customer flow of 950 million visits in the first half of 2025, up 16% year-on-year [49]. 3. Residential Development - The company is focusing on inventory reduction, with a significant portion of its inventory located in second and third-tier cities [67]. - The average contract sales price has stabilized at 10,072 yuan per square meter, reflecting a shift towards maintaining price and profitability [64]. 4. Financial Analysis - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt to 52.3 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 65.6% [72][73]. - The average financing cost has decreased to 5.55%, indicating improved financial conditions [79]. - The company has successfully issued multiple bonds and asset-backed securities, ensuring a stable financing channel [81].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of revitalizing existing land resources and managing inventory effectively [2][18]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "incremental storage linkage mechanism" aims to accelerate the revitalization of existing land resources, aligning with the central government's strategy of controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply [2][18]. - The recent policy document (Document No. 38) indicates that new construction land will prioritize major projects and public welfare, which is not intended to halt land supply but rather to shift focus towards utilizing existing land [14][15]. - The report highlights that the overall impact of the new policy is more beneficial than detrimental for real estate companies, particularly those with significant inventory in suburban areas [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector has underperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of -0.53%, lagging behind the benchmark by 0.72 percentage points [20][21]. - The Hong Kong real estate sector also showed a decline of -3.95%, underperforming the market by 2.82 percentage points [32]. 2. Credit Market - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 10.58 billion, with a net financing amount of 1.007 billion, indicating a challenging financing environment [20][39]. - Cumulative issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 744.80 billion, with a net financing deficit of -156.55 billion compared to the previous year [20][39]. 3. REITs Market - The REITs index experienced a decline of -0.74%, with the property REITs index down by -1.27% and the operating rights REITs index down by -0.08% [40][41]. - The total transaction volume for REITs was 9.91 billion, with a decrease of 4.68% compared to the previous week [54]. 4. Housing Market - New and second-hand housing transaction areas saw significant year-on-year declines of -41.58% and -46.88%, respectively, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [6][18]. - The report anticipates a stabilization in the second-hand housing market, while new housing metrics are expected to bottom out [2][18]. 5. Land Market - The supply and transaction area of land in major cities increased by 9.10% and 3.54% respectively, while the premium rate decreased by 4.49% [5]. - The report emphasizes that the new policy will not stop land supply but will focus on optimizing the quality of land offered [15][18].

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2026-010 公司将按照法律法规及《公司章程》等相关规定，尽快完成董事补选工作，并 及时履行信息披露义务。 吕小平先生确认与公司董事会以及管理层均未出现任何意见分歧，亦无任何有 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于公司董事辞职的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事离任情况 新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"新城控股"）董事会于 2026 年 3 月 16 日收到董事吕小平先生的书面辞职报告。吕小平先生因个人原因，申请 辞去公司董事职务。具体情况如下： | 姓名 | 离任 职务 | 离任时间 | | 原定任期 到期日 | | 是否继续在 离任原因 上市公司及其 | 是否存在未履行 完毕的公开承诺 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 控股子公司任职 | | | 吕小平 | 董事 | 2026 | 年 | 2027 | 年 | 个人原因 否 | 否 | ...