Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price increased by 17% [1] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in 30 core cities is 11% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value are China Overseas Land & Investment (112.4 billion), China Merchants Shekou (94.1 billion), and Greentown China (63.2 billion) [2][90] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first nine months of 2025, the supply of land area in 100 cities decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, while the transaction area decreased by 7.2% [11] - The supply of residential land area in 100 cities decreased by 16.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area decrease of 6.2% [20] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land - The average transaction floor price of residential land in 100 cities increased by 17.1% year-on-year, reaching 6,847 yuan per square meter [55] - The average transaction floor price in first-tier cities was 41,137 yuan per square meter, up 42% year-on-year [66] 3. Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 63.9% year-on-year increase in newly added land reserve value, totaling 847.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [82] - The newly added land reserve area for the top 50 companies increased by 5.5% year-on-year [87] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in 30 Core Cities - In September 2025, the transaction area of residential land in the 30 core cities increased by 16% year-on-year, with a total transaction price of 1,358 billion [96] - The total transaction area for the first nine months was 7,430 million square meters, accounting for 48.1% of the total transaction area in 100 cities [104] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [118] - Look for companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [118] - Consider the long-term development potential of property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [118]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes turned positive on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, driven by seasonal factors and new policies in first-tier cities [4][20] - The land auction market showed a decline in heat, with a notable drop in average land premium rates, although first-tier cities still maintained premiums above 10% [4][20] - The report highlights a significant increase in the sales and land acquisition of top real estate companies, indicating a recovery in the sector [4][20] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In September, new housing transaction area in 40 cities reached 935.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [12][14] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 22.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9% in new housing transactions [13][16] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [13][16] Second-hand Housing Transactions - In September, second-hand housing transaction area in 18 cities reached 758.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [20][23] - First and second-tier cities showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decline [21][25] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of September, the inventory of new homes in 12 tracked cities increased by 2.0% month-on-month but decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, with an overall absorption period of 18.9 months [4][12] - The average opening absorption rate in September was 39%, indicating a slight decline but remaining at a high level for the year [4][20] Land Market - The overall land auction heat declined in September, with a national average land premium rate of 3.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month [4][20] - The total land transaction area in September increased by 19.5% month-on-month but decreased by 9.1% year-on-year [4][20] Real Estate Companies - In September, the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in equity sales, with a total sales amount of 2.49 trillion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][20] - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies in September increased by 184.2% year-on-year, indicating strong market activity [4][20] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encouraged market-oriented methods to revitalize idle land, while first-tier cities continued to optimize real estate policies [4][20] - Specific policy adjustments in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai aimed to ease purchasing restrictions and improve financing conditions [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and those benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [4][20]

Core Insights - In September, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, while the year-on-year decline continued to narrow [1] - Shanghai's real estate development investment from January to September 2025 increased by 2.2% compared to the same period last year [1] - The Real Estate ETF fund rose by 1.41% today, with stocks such as Yinxin Development, Zhuhai Free Trade Group, Guangming Real Estate, and Tianbao Infrastructure hitting the daily limit [1] Real Estate Market Trends - The month-on-month decline in residential property prices indicates ongoing challenges in the real estate market [1] - The narrowing year-on-year decline suggests a potential stabilization in the market [1] Investment Insights - The Real Estate ETF fund closely tracks the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, which includes major companies such as Poly Developments, Vanke A, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index reflect significant players in the real estate sector, indicating where investment focus may lie [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown signs of improvement with a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes. New home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the inventory of new homes decreased [5][16] - A new housing provident fund policy in Chengdu broadens eligibility for converting commercial loans to provident fund loans, potentially stimulating demand [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, new home transaction volume in 40 cities reached 26,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 168.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%. The transaction area was 2.702 million square meters, up 170.6% month-on-month and down 22.9% year-on-year [17][24] - Transaction volumes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of 130.8%, 220.2%, and 122.2% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -35.3%, 0.01%, and -34.9% [17][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transactions totaled 20,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 193.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. The transaction area was 183,300 square meters, up 188.9% month-on-month and down 30.9% year-on-year [45][50] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities saw month-on-month transaction growth rates of 241.6%, 184.7%, and 163.8% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -27.5%, -30.7%, and -33.9% [45][51] 3. Inventory and Depletion Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 14.1 million units, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.05% and a year-on-year decline of 13.7%. The depletion cycle for new home inventory was 20.9 months, down 0.8 months month-on-month and up 0.4 months year-on-year [27][39] - The depletion cycle for new homes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities was 21.0, 17.8, and 88.6 months respectively, with month-on-month declines of 0.6, 0.9, and 5.2 months [39][43] 4. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 8.157 million square meters, down 28.4% month-on-month and down 59.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 20.16 billion yuan, down 51.1% month-on-month and down 57.9% year-on-year [60][63] - The average land price was 2,471.3 yuan per square meter, down 31.7% month-on-month but up 4.1% year-on-year. The land premium rate was 2.2%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [60][64] 5. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced reforms focusing on housing supply systems and urban construction, aiming to establish a new mechanism for real estate development [97]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that investment recovery will be slower than in previous cycles, with projected declines in investment, new starts, and completions for 2025 [2][3][20]. - Sales metrics remain weak, with both sales area and sales amount showing declines. However, the report suggests that the industry is at a bottoming stage, with potential for demand recovery driven by proactive policies [21][34]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds. The report expects a gradual improvement in funding conditions as industry policies continue to relax [35][37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to September 2025, total real estate investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.9%. In September alone, investment dropped by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - New starts and construction activities also showed declines, with new starts down 18.9% year-on-year and construction down 9.4% [20][21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. The sales amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [21][34]. - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline in September [32][34]. Funding Side - Cumulative funding sources for real estate development from January to September 2025 totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources was 11.5% [35][37]. - Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw significant declines, with domestic loans down 14.6% in September compared to the previous month [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector experienced a significant upward movement, with several stocks reaching their daily limit, following the release of housing price data by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate sector saw stocks such as Xiangjiang Holdings, Guangming Real Estate, Yingxin Development, and Caixin Development hit the daily limit [1] - Other companies like Shimao Development, Joy City, New City Holdings, and Zhujiang Holdings also experienced gains [1] Group 2: Housing Price Data - On October 20, the National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that in September, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline [1] - The year-on-year decline in housing prices continued to narrow, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The industry is still in a bottoming and stabilizing phase, with a more optimistic view on real estate companies in core cities with abundant resources. The report highlights that while the marginal improvement in construction and sales is noted, housing prices still face downward pressure [1][2]. - The report recommends real estate stocks that align with the "good credit, good city, good product" logic, as well as leading property management companies with stable dividends and performance [1]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - In September, real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 21%, which is a 1.8 percentage point increase in the decline compared to August. Cumulatively from January to September, the year-on-year decline is 14% [2]. - The land market showed marginal improvement in September, with transaction area and transaction amount down by 1% and 7% year-on-year, respectively, compared to declines of 25% and 31% in August [2]. - New construction in September decreased by 14% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 6 percentage points compared to August [2]. Sales Performance - The sales amount in September saw a year-on-year decline of 12%, which is a 2 percentage point narrowing from August. Cumulatively, from January to September, the year-on-year decline is 8% [3]. - The new housing price index in 70 cities decreased by 2.7% year-on-year in September, with a 0.3 percentage point narrowing from August [3]. Cash Flow Situation - In September, the cash inflow for real estate companies decreased by 12% year-on-year, although the decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points compared to August. Specifically, deposits and prepayments fell by 9% year-on-year, while personal mortgage loans decreased by 11% [4]. - The overall cash flow situation for real estate companies remains to be improved, as domestic loans saw a significant decline of 15% year-on-year in September [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "A" rating for buying the stocks of New Town Holdings (601155), Greentown China (03900), and China Jinmao (00817) with target prices of 18, 11.7, and 2.1 respectively [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization with a year-on-year increase in transactions during the National Day holiday, marking the first positive growth since 2020. The total number of transactions in 30 major cities reached 4,304 units, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][13]. - There is a clear market differentiation, with first-tier and third-tier cities performing well, showing transaction increases of 18.3% and 24.0% respectively, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 25.9% [1][16]. - The report suggests a more optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, driven by increased supply in core cities and recovering demand in non-core cities, indicating a potential sales growth [12][30]. Summary by Sections 1. National Day Holiday Market Performance - The real estate market during the 2025 National Day holiday showed a slight improvement compared to 2024, with 4,304 transactions recorded, the first year-on-year increase since 2020 [1][13]. - First-tier cities recorded 1,492 transactions, a growth of 18.3% from 2024, while third-tier cities saw 1,514 transactions, up 24.0%. In contrast, second-tier cities experienced a decline to 1,298 transactions, down 25.9% [16][19]. 2. High-frequency Data and Market Heat - High-frequency data has limitations in accurately reflecting the real estate market's heat due to statistical discrepancies and data quality issues. Daily transaction data tends to be lower during holidays [22][23]. - New housing supply and the number of viewings for second-hand homes provide better insights into market demand and developer sentiment. In September, the approved pre-sale area for new homes reached 705 million square meters, the highest monthly figure for 2025 [2][26]. 3. Outlook for the Fourth Quarter - The report anticipates a recovery in new home sales driven by strong land acquisition by leading developers and the introduction of quality projects in core cities. Non-core cities are expected to benefit from price adjustments and lower mortgage rates, enhancing rental yield advantages [3][30]. - Key companies to watch include those reversing difficulties like Gemdale Corporation and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition strength such as Greentown China and China Jinmao [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].