房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 小阳春重点关注价格表现而非成交量，严 控新增建设用地不等于暂停供地 核心观点 ⚫ 周观点： 年初以来京沪二手房市场挂牌价在无政策催化下的边际改善引发了市场对于房地产周期拐点的 关注和讨论，当前正值地产传统销售旺季小阳春，我们认为小阳春的资产价格表现是判断全年 房地产走势以及长周期位置的胜负手，需要强调的是，重点需要关注价格表现而非成交量。在 过去几年房地产的下跌周期中，也曾出现过多次因为政策催化后的以价换量带来的成交量改 善，而建立在资产价格下跌基础上的成交量修复是没有持续性的。从最新小阳春景气度表现来 看，成交量的小阳春基本可以确立，核心城市如上海成交量放量明显，其他城市亦有不俗表 现，但需要指出的是，资产价格目前表现平平，京沪最新一周挂牌价周环比转正但此前两周持 续下跌，全国综合来看挂牌价仍然主要呈现下行趋势，不过下行幅度有限。挂牌量方面，节后 也如我们之前观点所提示整体呈现回升态势。由于小阳春季节性行情远未结束，当前尚不能盖 棺定论，建议投资人持续关注二手房市场挂牌价边际趋势。此外，对自然资源部 38 号文市场 存在部分误读，严控新增建设用地不等于暂停供地，但"严控增 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 从源头落实房地产"控增量"方针 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 15 日│中国内地 动态点评 据新华财经 3 月 11 日报道，近日自然资源部、国家林草局联合发布 38 号 文《关于进一步做好自然资源要素保障的通知》，以"控增量、强存量、优 供给、保民生"为核心，通过增存挂钩硬约束、新增用地用途严控、审批效 率提升等举措，完成土地供给侧制度性重构，是 2026 年政府工作报告"控 增量、去库存、优供给"定调在土地端的落地。13 日发布的"十五五"规 划纲要中，也提出促进土地供应与存量住房、人口变动等相协调。我们认为 供地逻辑的改变，意味着房企存量盘活、资源整合与长期运营能力更具备竞 争力，有望推动行业格局重塑进程进一步加速。 增存挂钩硬约束，审批效率全面提升以优化土地供给模式 38 号文最核心的制度性突破在于划定两大硬红线，一是建立新增建设用地 与存量盘活挂钩机制，年度新增城乡建设用地原则上不得超过盘活存量土地 面积，从省级层面实施建设用地总量管控；二是明确新增建设用地优先保障 重大项目与民生事业，原则上不用于经营性房地产开发，仅城中村改造小于 10%的零星用地可用于民生配套，商品房开发 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产开发与服务 26 年第 11 周 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 城市建设规划收紧，板块关注度提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-15 [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 谢淼 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 021-38003637 xiemiao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李怡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524040001 SFC CE No. BVI219 021-38003636 liyihui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 辛恬 SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7]. Core Insights - The effects of new policies in Shanghai are becoming evident, leading to a recovery in second-hand housing transactions [1]. - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand housing transactions are gradually recovering, although new housing transactions have not yet seen a similar trend [4][5]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has shown a relative decline of 15% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the past week (March 7-13), Beijing reported an average of 580 second-hand housing transactions per day, down 3.7% year-on-year, while new housing transactions were 76 units, down 27.5% year-on-year [4]. - Shanghai saw an average of 982 second-hand housing transactions per day, up 8% year-on-year, while new housing transactions were 318 units, down 8% year-on-year [5]. - In Shenzhen, second-hand housing transactions averaged 154 units per day, down 25% year-on-year, and new housing transactions were 39 units, down 57% year-on-year [5]. National Trends - In 30 major cities, new housing transaction area increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the past week, with a year-on-year decline of 9.6% in March [6]. - The cumulative transaction area from January to March showed a year-on-year decline of 21.6% [6]. - Second-hand housing transactions in 14 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 24.7% in the past week, with a March year-on-year decline of 17% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The months of March and April are traditionally peak seasons for the real estate market, especially following the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven" policies, which have stimulated both second-hand and new housing transactions [7]. - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [7]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary agencies as the proportion of second-hand housing transactions continues to rise [7].

业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 证券分析师 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 14 日 38 号文不是土地断供而是转向，挂钩存量盘活 或将加速城市更新 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/3/7-2026/3/13） 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回升，新房成交推盘比小幅回落。上周(3.7- 3.13)3 ...

业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 2026 年 03 月 14 日 38 号文不是土地断供而是转向，挂钩存量盘活 或将加速城市更新 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/3/7-2026/3/13） 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 [Table_Title] 房地产行业：26 年 2 月 REITs 月报 商业不动产 REITs 加速推进，意义重大 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 04/24 07/24 09/24 12/24 02/25 04/25 房地产 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师： 郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 胡正维 SAC 执证号：S0260524080002 021-38003768 huzhengwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，胡正维并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 货币 | 收盘价 | 最近 | 评级 | 合理价值 | | EPS(元) | | PE(x) | | EV/EBITDA(x) | ROE | | | --- | --- | ...

房地产高质量发展，更高水平住有所居 —— 房地产行业"十五五"规划纲要解读 分析师：胡孝宇 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 行业深度报告 · 房地产行业 房地产高质量发展，更高水平住有所居 —— 房地产行业"十五五"规划纲要解读 2026 年 03 月 13 日 核心观点 房地产行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 03 月 13 日 -20% 0% 20% 40% 2025/3/13 2025/4/13 2025/5/13 2025/6/13 2025/7/13 2025/8/13 2025/9/13 2025/10/13 2025/11/13 2025/12/13 2026/1/13 2026/2/13 2026/3/13 SW房地产 沪深300 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1.【银河地产】推动地产高质量发展_十五五规划建 议点评 2.【银河地产】房地产行业深度_期待地产新征程_十 五五规划前瞻 3.【银河地产】着力稳定房地产市场，深入推进新模 式_2026 年政府工作报告点 ...

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2026-009 | 省份 | 广场数量 | 总建筑面积 2 | 月份租金收入 | 当年累计租金收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （平方米） | （元） | （元） | | 江苏 | 44 | 4,139,925 | 284,175,781 | 577,797,573 | | 浙江 | 18 | 1,618,168 | 124,058,155 | 255,864,049 | | 安徽 | 14 | 1,258,300 | 78,196,594 | 159,135,113 | | 陕西 | 7 | 659,454 | 56,487,464 | 117,389,213 | | 山东 | 16 | 1,473,979 | 70,963,287 | 144,839,994 | | 湖南 | 6 | 502,482 | 30,720,954 | 62,313,343 | | 广西 | 5 | 455,455 | 24,129,110 | 48,869,459 | | 云南 | 6 | 571,450 | 30,353, ...

Group 1: 康农种业 - 康农种业 has achieved a breakthrough in the Huang-Huai-Hai market with its representative variety 康农玉 8009, which is expected to continue growing in this region and is making progress in exporting corn seeds [2][3][4] - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.78, 1.15, and 1.5 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 40.25 yuan based on a 35x valuation for 2026 [3][4] - The corn seed supply-demand inflection point is emerging, with national seed corn area and production reaching a ten-year high in 2023, and a supply-demand ratio of 167%, indicating a favorable environment for quality seed sales [3][4] Group 2: 万润新能 - 万润新能 is positioned at a critical point of performance confirmation and product technology upgrade, with expectations of simultaneous growth in volume and profit due to surging demand for energy storage and power batteries [2][6][9] - The company is projected to have a net profit of -446 million yuan, 963 million yuan, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with an EPS of -3.54 yuan, 7.63 yuan, and 10.87 yuan [6][9] - The company is a leading supplier of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials for lithium batteries, with a projected sales growth of approximately 64.33% in 2025, ranking second in domestic shipments [8][9] Group 3: 爱柯迪 - 爱柯迪 is recognized as a lightweight champion in the automotive sector, actively expanding into the fields of intelligent robotics and magnesium alloy products, with a projected net profit of 1.14 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][11][12] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing trend of automotive lightweighting and aims to become a primary supplier in the field of embodied intelligence [11][12] - The acquisition of 卓尔博 is anticipated to enhance 爱柯迪's revenue by over 1 billion yuan in 2026, as it enters the micro and special motor sector [12][11] Group 4: 华新建材 - 华新建材 is focusing on strong profitability and pricing in African markets, with adjusted net profit projections of 2.8 billion, 3.61 billion, and 4.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [26][27] - The company has reported strong performance from its Nigerian subsidiary, with a net profit of approximately 1.28 billion yuan in 2025, exceeding expectations [27] - The pricing for cement in key African countries has shown significant increases, indicating a robust market environment for 华新建材 [27][26] Group 5: 新城控股 - 新城控股 is optimizing its debt structure through multiple financing channels, with a projected EPS of 0.37, 0.51, and 0.61 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [29][30] - The company has successfully applied for a public REITs project, expected to raise 1.625 billion yuan, which will enhance its cash flow stability [29][30] - The company is actively working on diversifying its financing methods, including issuing REITs and optimizing its debt structure [30][31] Group 6: 行动教育 - 行动教育 is expected to achieve net profits of 303 million, 366 million, and 427 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 67.54 yuan [32][33] - The company is advancing its "百校计划" to expand its presence and enhance its service capabilities, while also integrating AI strategies to improve operational efficiency [32][33] - The company has reported a high net profit margin of 37.97% in Q3 2025, indicating strong profitability [32][33]