证券研究报告·公司深度研究·房地产开发 新城控股（601155） 双轮驱动战略笃行，商业竞争力与财务稳健 性巩固 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 119,174 | 88,999 | 40,682 | 28,433 | 24,598 | | 同比（%） | 3.22 | (25.32) | (54.29) | (30.11) | (13.49) | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 737.10 | 752.39 | 884.50 | 1,145.48 | 1,466.56 | | 同比（%） | (47.12) | 2.07 | 17.56 | 29.51 | 28.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 0.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 45.81 | 44.88 | 38.18 | 29.48 | 23.02 | [Ta ...

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 119,174 | 88,999 | 40,682 | 28,433 | 24,598 | | 同比（%） | 3.22 | (25.32) | (54.29) | (30.11) | (13.49) | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 737.10 | 752.39 | 884.50 | 1,145.48 | 1,466.56 | | 同比（%） | (47.12) | 2.07 | 17.56 | 29.51 | 28.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 0.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 45.81 | 44.88 | 38.18 | 29.48 | 23.02 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司深度研究·房地产开发 新城控股（601155） 双 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of revitalizing existing land resources and managing inventory effectively [2][18]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "incremental storage linkage mechanism" aims to accelerate the revitalization of existing land resources, aligning with the central government's strategy of controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply [2][18]. - The recent policy document (Document No. 38) indicates that new construction land will prioritize major projects and public welfare, which is not intended to halt land supply but rather to shift focus towards utilizing existing land [14][15]. - The report highlights that the overall impact of the new policy is more beneficial than detrimental for real estate companies, particularly those with significant inventory in suburban areas [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector has underperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of -0.53%, lagging behind the benchmark by 0.72 percentage points [20][21]. - The Hong Kong real estate sector also showed a decline of -3.95%, underperforming the market by 2.82 percentage points [32]. 2. Credit Market - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 10.58 billion, with a net financing amount of 1.007 billion, indicating a challenging financing environment [20][39]. - Cumulative issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 744.80 billion, with a net financing deficit of -156.55 billion compared to the previous year [20][39]. 3. REITs Market - The REITs index experienced a decline of -0.74%, with the property REITs index down by -1.27% and the operating rights REITs index down by -0.08% [40][41]. - The total transaction volume for REITs was 9.91 billion, with a decrease of 4.68% compared to the previous week [54]. 4. Housing Market - New and second-hand housing transaction areas saw significant year-on-year declines of -41.58% and -46.88%, respectively, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [6][18]. - The report anticipates a stabilization in the second-hand housing market, while new housing metrics are expected to bottom out [2][18]. 5. Land Market - The supply and transaction area of land in major cities increased by 9.10% and 3.54% respectively, while the premium rate decreased by 4.49% [5]. - The report emphasizes that the new policy will not stop land supply but will focus on optimizing the quality of land offered [15][18].

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2026-010 公司将按照法律法规及《公司章程》等相关规定，尽快完成董事补选工作，并 及时履行信息披露义务。 吕小平先生确认与公司董事会以及管理层均未出现任何意见分歧，亦无任何有 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于公司董事辞职的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事离任情况 新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"新城控股"）董事会于 2026 年 3 月 16 日收到董事吕小平先生的书面辞职报告。吕小平先生因个人原因，申请 辞去公司董事职务。具体情况如下： | 姓名 | 离任 职务 | 离任时间 | | 原定任期 到期日 | | 是否继续在 离任原因 上市公司及其 | 是否存在未履行 完毕的公开承诺 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 控股子公司任职 | | | 吕小平 | 董事 | 2026 | 年 | 2027 | 年 | 个人原因 否 | 否 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of price performance over transaction volume during the current "small spring" season in the real estate market, suggesting that price trends are crucial for assessing the overall market trajectory [2][3] - The recent policy from the Ministry of Natural Resources, which focuses on "strict control of new land and revitalization of existing land," aligns with the government's long-standing approach and does not imply a halt in land supply [3][51][52] - The report highlights that while transaction volumes in major cities like Shanghai have shown significant increases, asset prices remain relatively stable, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring of price trends [2][4][31] Market Performance - The A-share real estate index experienced a weekly decline of 0.53%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [10][11] - In the Hong Kong market, the index for Hong Kong property stocks fell by 2.65%, while the index for Hong Kong-funded property companies dropped by 5.88%, both underperforming against the Hang Seng Index [14][15] Secondary Housing Weekly Tracking - In the secondary housing market, Shanghai and Beijing saw week-on-week price increases, while the national average price declined by 0.1%, with a narrowing of the decline [21][25] - Transaction volumes in major cities have surged, with Shanghai recording a single-day transaction high of 1,472 units, marking a significant increase in activity [31][33] New Housing Weekly Tracking - The "small spring" trend continues in the new housing market, with a 73% week-on-week increase in transaction volumes in first-tier cities, particularly notable in Guangzhou and Shanghai [47][48] - The total inventory of new homes has slightly decreased, with first-tier cities showing a 1.0% week-on-week decline [49][50] Key Event Commentary - The Ministry of Natural Resources has clarified its development direction, emphasizing the need to balance new and existing land use, which is expected to influence future land acquisition strategies for real estate companies [3][51][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national real estate companies or local state-owned enterprises that have rich experience in urban renewal projects, as future land acquisition will increasingly depend on revitalizing existing land [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development sector and the real estate services sector [7] Core Insights - The recent policy document No. 38 emphasizes controlling new land supply while promoting the utilization of existing land, indicating a shift in land supply logic that may enhance the competitiveness of real estate companies focused on asset management and long-term operations [1][2] - The new policy introduces hard constraints linking new land supply to the revitalization of existing land, prioritizing land for major projects and public welfare rather than commercial real estate development [2][3] - The trend of "quality over quantity" in land supply has been established since 2024, with a projected 18% year-on-year decrease in land supply area in 2025, reflecting the government's focus on controlling new supply and reducing inventory [4] Summary by Sections Land Supply Policy - The policy document establishes two main hard constraints: new construction land must not exceed the area of revitalized existing land, and new land is primarily reserved for significant projects and public welfare [2] - The simplification of land approval processes aims to reduce costs for local governments in revitalizing existing land, pushing urban development towards more efficient land use [2][3] Market Dynamics - The control of new land supply suggests a significant shift towards utilizing existing land, with urban renewal and redevelopment becoming key avenues for real estate companies to acquire land [3] - The supply of residential land has been decreasing, with a 2% year-on-year decline in the total area of existing residential land in 97 sample cities at the beginning of 2026 [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong asset revitalization capabilities and a focus on core urban areas are expected to benefit from long-term growth opportunities. Recommended stocks include those with good credit, city positioning, and product quality, particularly in Shanghai [5] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land, among others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11]

Core Insights - The report highlights a tightening of urban construction planning, which is expected to increase attention on the real estate sector [4] - The market is showing signs of improvement in transaction performance, with new home sales and second-hand home transactions experiencing fluctuations [4][19] - The report suggests a growing capital attraction to the real estate sector, indicating potential for upward movement in the market [4] Policy Overview - Central policies emphasize urban development that prioritizes public welfare projects, limiting new construction land for commercial real estate [14][15] - Local policies include adjustments in housing subsidies and public fund loan relaxations in cities like Dongguan and Chengdu [18][20] Transaction Performance - New home sales in 49 cities decreased by 4.5% week-on-week and 12.9% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 6.5% when aligned with the Spring Festival [19][21] - Second-hand home transactions showed a week-on-week increase of 8.2%, indicating a positive trend despite ongoing challenges [19][21] Market Sentiment - The report notes a gradual increase in new home launches, with a 54% week-on-week rise, while second-hand listings have not kept pace with seasonal expectations [4] - The real estate sector's performance is improving, with the SW real estate index showing a relative recovery compared to the broader market [4] Land Market Dynamics - Land supply has increased, with a total of 170 billion yuan in land sales recorded, reflecting an 8.3% week-on-week increase [4][12] - The report indicates a significant drop in year-to-date land sales compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing challenges in the land market [4] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, are rated as "Buy" with projected reasonable values indicating potential upside [5] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including EPS, PE ratios, and ROE, suggesting a focus on fundamental analysis for investment decisions [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7]. Core Insights - The effects of new policies in Shanghai are becoming evident, leading to a recovery in second-hand housing transactions [1]. - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand housing transactions are gradually recovering, although new housing transactions have not yet seen a similar trend [4][5]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has shown a relative decline of 15% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the past week (March 7-13), Beijing reported an average of 580 second-hand housing transactions per day, down 3.7% year-on-year, while new housing transactions were 76 units, down 27.5% year-on-year [4]. - Shanghai saw an average of 982 second-hand housing transactions per day, up 8% year-on-year, while new housing transactions were 318 units, down 8% year-on-year [5]. - In Shenzhen, second-hand housing transactions averaged 154 units per day, down 25% year-on-year, and new housing transactions were 39 units, down 57% year-on-year [5]. National Trends - In 30 major cities, new housing transaction area increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the past week, with a year-on-year decline of 9.6% in March [6]. - The cumulative transaction area from January to March showed a year-on-year decline of 21.6% [6]. - Second-hand housing transactions in 14 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 24.7% in the past week, with a March year-on-year decline of 17% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The months of March and April are traditionally peak seasons for the real estate market, especially following the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven" policies, which have stimulated both second-hand and new housing transactions [7]. - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [7]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary agencies as the proportion of second-hand housing transactions continues to rise [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery and growth in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][27]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom after significant adjustments, with recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and enhancing financial support for the sector [2][27]. - It emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, suggesting that their profitability will recover sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][27]. - The report also notes that the current valuation levels for some quality firms are at historical lows, making the sector attractive for investment [2][27]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of March 7-13, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.175 million square meters, representing a 20% increase week-on-week. First and second-tier cities saw a 21.6% increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 3.9% decline [3][11]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in March 2026 decreased by 16.6%, with first and second-tier cities down 13.5% and third and fourth-tier cities down 48.3% [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.11 million square meters, up 9% week-on-week. However, March's cumulative transactions were down 26.9% year-on-year [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of March 7-13, 2026, 15 cities launched 750,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 830,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-supply ratio of 1.12. The average months of inventory for these cities increased slightly to 27.9 months [19][20]. Policy and News Tracking - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on high-quality growth and a balanced housing supply system [27][28]. - Recent policies include the establishment of a mechanism linking new land supply to the revitalization of existing land, prioritizing major projects and public welfare developments [27][28]. - Various cities are implementing measures to enhance housing affordability, such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits and optimizing loan policies [27][28]. Company Performance - Several real estate companies have reported their 2025 annual performance, with notable figures including: - Lujiazui: Revenue of approximately 18.17 billion yuan (+24%), net profit of 1.22 billion yuan (-19%) [38]. - Pudong Jinqiao: Revenue of approximately 5.97 billion yuan (+118.9%), net profit of 1.07 billion yuan (+7.1%) [38]. - Poly Development: Revenue of approximately 10.13 billion yuan (-36.7%) [38]. - Sales data for February 2026 showed significant declines for several companies, with China Jinmao reporting a 20.6% increase in sales amounting to 5.33 billion yuan [38].

业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 2026 年 03 月 14 日 38 号文不是土地断供而是转向，挂钩存量盘活 或将加速城市更新 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/3/7-2026/3/13） 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房 ...