Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at stimulating the commercial real estate market and facilitating inventory reduction [5][6] - The current inventory of commercial properties is high, with 141 million square meters of commercial space available for sale as of November 2025, including 52 million square meters of office space [6] - The report anticipates further policy easing to support the commercial real estate sector, as the current measures may have limited impact due to existing disadvantages in loan terms compared to residential mortgages [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report indicates a downward trend in the commercial real estate market, with rising vacancy rates and declining rental prices [7] Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to lower the down payment ratio for commercial property loans, which is expected to ease initial funding pressures for buyers [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery: China Resources Land, New World Development, Longfor Group [8] 2. Firms with strong credit profiles and good understanding of customer demand: Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, China Overseas Land & Investment [8] 3. High-quality property management companies under the "Good House, Good Service" policy: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, Poly Property [8]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with significant decreases in revenue and net profit year-over-year, indicating potential challenges in the real estate sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 16, New City Holdings' stock fell by 2.02%, trading at 14.52 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 32.752 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has increased by 4.09% year-to-date but has seen a decline of 3.26% over the last five trading days and 60 days [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 4.2516 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 13.63% of purchases and 22.20% of sales [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New City Holdings reported a revenue of 34.371 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 33.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.974 billion yuan, down 33.05% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 14.595 billion yuan, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.34% to 43,200, with an average of 52,155 circulating shares per person, an increase of 14.07% [2]. - The fourth largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 16.6308 million shares, a decrease of 701,400 shares from the previous period [3]. - New shareholders include ICBC Value Selection Mixed A, holding 15.7412 million shares, while several other funds have exited the top ten circulating shareholders list [3].

Group 1 - The real estate development sector increased by 0.53% on January 15, with Bright Real Estate leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] - Bright Real Estate's stock price rose by 10.09% to 3.82, with a trading volume of 410,100 shares and a transaction value of 152 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The real estate development sector experienced a net inflow of 395 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 275 million yuan [2] - Major stocks in the sector showed varied performance, with Vanke A experiencing a net inflow of 235 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 151 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Poly Development had a net inflow of 128 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 104 million yuan [3]

M Update Marginal Help from Tax Refund on Housing Upgrade Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Stephen Cheung, CFA Equity Analyst Stephen.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0385 Cara Zhu Equity Analyst Cara.Zhu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7117 January 14, 2026 10:30 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific China Property Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line Related reports: 1. 2026 Outlook: Physical Market Stays Challenging; Diverging Outperformance of Alpha Plays (10 December 2025) 2. Monthly Tracker: Nove ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that New城控股 has experienced fluctuations in stock price and financial performance, with a notable decrease in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. - As of January 15, the stock price of New城控股 increased by 2.08% to 14.70 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 33.158 billion CNY [1]. - The company has seen a 5.38% increase in stock price year-to-date, but a decline of 3.54% over the last five trading days [1]. Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, New城控股 reported a revenue of 34.371 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 33.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.974 billion CNY, also down by 33.05% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed dividends of 14.595 billion CNY since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.34% to 43,200, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 14.07% to 52,155 shares [2][3].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49]. - The report highlights that multiple favorable factors are driving a gradual recovery in the sentiment of the Hong Kong private residential market, indicating that Hong Kong developers may face a new round of value reassessment [5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4%, the ChiNext Index by 3.9%, and the CSI 300 by 2.8%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 5.1% during the week [5][8]. - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rong Control (+19.7%), and *ST Sunshine (+16.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.37 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.3% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 9, new housing transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 30.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [33]. - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand housing transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [37]. Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of policies to promote domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing guarantees [49]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policies to enhance financial services for the real economy [49]. - Local policies include the extension of the down payment ratio in Shenyang to 15% until the end of 2026 and the increase of the public loan limit from 60% to 80% [49].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate construction management industry has seen significant growth in 2025, driven by the strong expansion intentions of leading companies, with a notable shift from traditional development to service-oriented models [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - In 2025, the top 20 construction management companies added approximately 220 million square meters of new signed construction area, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, which is 6 percentage points higher than in 2024 [3]. - The number of winning bids in the third quarter of 2025 reached 172, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 37% and 17%, respectively [4]. - Ten companies achieved over 10 million square meters of new construction management scale in 2025, with the top five companies accounting for 45% of the new construction area [5]. Group 2: Company Performance - Leading companies such as Jindi Management, Longfor Longzhizao, and New City Construction Management saw their new construction management scale increase by over 50% in 2025, with new signed areas of 15.31 million, 13.87 million, and 10.61 million square meters, respectively [7]. - The sales scale for Longfor Longzhizao and Jindi Management reached 20.6 billion and 19.3 billion yuan, ranking them third and fourth in sales scale [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The industry is undergoing a structural adjustment from scale expansion to value creation, with companies needing to enhance product quality, innovate services, and manage risks to achieve stable development during the industry reshuffle [5]. - The demand for professional construction management services has increased due to government initiatives promoting affordable housing and urban renewal, creating opportunities for companies to leverage their expertise [8]. - There is a growing trend of collaboration between construction management firms and local governments or state-owned enterprises, providing new avenues for project expansion [9].

Core Insights - The real estate construction agency industry is experiencing significant growth, with over 100 companies targeting this sector, driven by the strong expansion intentions of leading firms [1] - The top 20 construction agency companies are expected to sign approximately 220 million square meters of new contracts in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, which is 6 percentage points higher than in 2024 [1] - Major players like Jindi Management, Longfor Longzhizao, and New City Construction Management have seen their new contract areas increase by over 50% year-on-year [4] Group 1: Market Trends - The number of contracts awarded in the construction agency sector has been rising, with the third quarter of 2025 seeing 172 contracts awarded, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17% [2] - Ten companies are projected to add over 10 million square meters of construction agency scale in 2025, with the top five companies accounting for 45% of the new construction area [2] - The industry is shifting from scale expansion to value creation, requiring companies to enhance product quality, innovate services, and manage risks effectively during the industry reshuffle [2][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Jindi Management, Longfor Longzhizao, and New City Construction Management are gaining market attention, with their new signed construction areas being 15.31 million square meters, 13.87 million square meters, and 10.61 million square meters, respectively [4] - The sales scale for Longfor Longzhizao and Jindi Management reached 20.6 billion and 19.3 billion yuan, ranking them third and fourth in sales scale [4] - These companies are reducing their self-investment project scales significantly, with new value added being less than 9 billion yuan, compared to previous peaks of over 100 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The construction agency sector is benefiting from government policies promoting affordable housing and urban village renovations, creating a demand for professional operators [5] - The light-asset model of construction agencies allows companies to focus on product quality and service while managing risks, aligning with current market demands [5] - The construction agency market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 21.3%, indicating significant potential compared to the 20%-30% penetration rates in mature markets like Europe and the U.S. [5] Group 4: New Opportunities - Local government investment entities hold many undeveloped land parcels, which are becoming key targets for construction agencies [6] - Non-real estate companies are increasingly willing to engage in construction agency projects, providing new growth opportunities for construction firms [6] - Some construction agencies are proactively engaging in the construction process to secure quality land reserves, representing a new expansion strategy [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The current market is under pressure with declining transaction volumes and prices, but there is potential for policy adjustments in the first quarter of the year to stabilize the market [9] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [9] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - New housing transaction area decreased by 45.7% month-on-month and 35.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the decline rate [20][28] - Second-hand housing transaction area increased by 35.5% month-on-month but decreased by 21.6% year-on-year [51] - New housing inventory area increased by 0.2% month-on-month and decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking cycle of 16.3 months [44][45] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1,744.7 million square meters, down 60.3% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [67] - Total land transaction value was 32.19 billion, down 71.2% month-on-month and 63.3% year-on-year, with an average floor price of 1,844.7 yuan per square meter [67][73] - The land premium rate was 0.6%, down 7.9 percentage points month-on-month and 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [67][69] 3. Policy Overview - Various cities are optimizing housing fund policies, such as extending the mutual assistance policy for housing fund withdrawals in Chengdu until the end of 2026 [5][104] - In Shenyang, five housing fund loan policies were optimized starting January 2026, including extending the minimum down payment ratio of 15% [5][104] 4. Sector Performance Review - The real estate sector's absolute return was 5.1%, up 5.8 percentage points from the previous week, and the relative return compared to the CSI 300 was 2.3%, up 2.4 percentage points [106][107] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio was 25.66X, an increase of 1.02X from the previous week [110] 5. Key Company Announcements - New City Holdings reported a shareholding change with its controlling shareholder holding 1.4 billion shares, representing 6.11% of the total [118]