Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is accelerating financing through various channels such as credit bonds, overseas bonds, and asset securitization to address year-end debt maturity pressures and prepare for future development amid increased supply of quality land parcels [1][3][10]. Financing Trends - In September, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 561 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 31%, with credit bond financing alone amounting to 322 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 89.5% [3][9]. - The average issuance term for credit bonds in September was 3.65 years, indicating a trend towards longer financing terms, which helps optimize debt structure and alleviate short-term repayment pressures [7]. Company Financing Activities - Several companies are actively issuing bonds, including China Merchants Shekou with a planned issuance of 40 billion yuan at a coupon rate of 1.90%, and China Vanke with a bond issuance of up to 24 billion yuan [6][8]. - Notable issuances include Beijing Urban Construction Group's successful issuance of 18 billion yuan in medium-term notes and Poly Developments' 150 billion yuan bond application accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [6][8]. Challenges in Sales and Cash Flow - Despite the positive financing trends, real estate companies face significant challenges in sales, with a reported 8.4% year-on-year decline in funds received by real estate developers from January to September, particularly in deposits and pre-sales [9][10]. - The ongoing sluggish sales market continues to exert pressure on the overall cash flow of real estate companies, making it crucial for them to balance external financing with internal cash generation [10]. Debt Restructuring Progress - Some distressed real estate companies have made substantial progress in debt restructuring, with over 75% of creditors approving restructuring plans for companies like Longfor Group and Sunac China [8].

新城控股所属申万行业为：房地产-房地产开发-商业地产。所属概念板块包括：基金重仓、中盘、 REITs概念、融资融券、养老产业等。 截至6月30日，新城控股股东户数4.93万，较上期减少8.68%；人均流通股45721股，较上期增加9.50%。 2025年1月-6月，新城控股实现营业收入221.00亿元，同比减少34.82%；归母净利润8.95亿元，同比减少 32.11%。 10月23日，新城控股盘中下跌2.07%，截至10:17，报14.70元/股，成交4293.38万元，换手率0.13%，总 市值331.58亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出96.91万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出325.67万元，占比 7.59%；大单买入447.96万元，占比10.43%，卖出219.19万元，占比5.11%。 新城控股今年以来股价涨22.91%，近5个交易日跌0.94%，近20日跌8.13%，近60日涨0.41%。 资料显示，新城控股集团股份有限公司位于上海市普陀区中江路388弄6号新城控股大厦A座，成立日期 1996年6月30日，上市日期2015年12月4日，公司主营业务涉及房地产开发与销售。主营 ...

2025 年 10 月 22 日 行业研究 1-9 月百城宅地成交"量缩价升"，30 城整体溢价率 11% ——土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 9 月） 要点 2025 年 1-9 月，百城宅地成交建面同比-6%，成交楼面均价同比+17%。 2025 年 1-9 月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为 1.54 亿平，累计同比-6.2%；成交 楼面均价为 6,847 元/平方米，累计同比+17.1%。分能级城市来看，1-9 月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 726 万平，累计同比-26.9%；成交建面为 613 万平，累计同比-23.6%；成交楼面均价为 41,137 元/平方米，累计同比+42.0%。 1-9 月核心 30 城宅地成交面积占百城比重 48%，成交总价占百城比重 82%。 2025 年 1-9 月，光大核心 30 城宅地成交建面 7,430 万平，占百城住宅用地成交 建面的比重为 48.1%；核心 6 城宅地成交建面 1,854 万平，占百城比重为 12.0%； 光大核心 30 城宅地成交总价 8,671 亿元，占百城比重为 82.0%；核心 6 城宅地 成交总价 4,976 亿元，占百城比重为 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes turned positive on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, driven by seasonal factors and new policies in first-tier cities [4][20] - The land auction market showed a decline in heat, with a notable drop in average land premium rates, although first-tier cities still maintained premiums above 10% [4][20] - The report highlights a significant increase in the sales and land acquisition of top real estate companies, indicating a recovery in the sector [4][20] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In September, new housing transaction area in 40 cities reached 935.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [12][14] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 22.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9% in new housing transactions [13][16] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [13][16] Second-hand Housing Transactions - In September, second-hand housing transaction area in 18 cities reached 758.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [20][23] - First and second-tier cities showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decline [21][25] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of September, the inventory of new homes in 12 tracked cities increased by 2.0% month-on-month but decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, with an overall absorption period of 18.9 months [4][12] - The average opening absorption rate in September was 39%, indicating a slight decline but remaining at a high level for the year [4][20] Land Market - The overall land auction heat declined in September, with a national average land premium rate of 3.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month [4][20] - The total land transaction area in September increased by 19.5% month-on-month but decreased by 9.1% year-on-year [4][20] Real Estate Companies - In September, the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in equity sales, with a total sales amount of 2.49 trillion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][20] - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies in September increased by 184.2% year-on-year, indicating strong market activity [4][20] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encouraged market-oriented methods to revitalize idle land, while first-tier cities continued to optimize real estate policies [4][20] - Specific policy adjustments in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai aimed to ease purchasing restrictions and improve financing conditions [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and those benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [4][20]

房地产ETF基金紧密跟踪中证全指房地产指数。最新数据显示，中证全指房地产指数前十大权重股分别 为保利发展、万科A、张江高科、招商蛇口、海南机场、衢州发展、滨江集团、新城控股、万业企业、 万通发展。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 上海统计局发布房地产相关数据，2025年1-9月，本市房地产开发投资比去年同期增长2.2%。 房地产ETF基金今日逆势上涨1.41%，持仓股票盈新发展、珠免集团、光明地产、天保基建涨停。 消息面，10月20日，国家统计局发布9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。数据显示，9月 份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继续呈收窄态势。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown signs of improvement with a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes. New home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the inventory of new homes decreased [5][16] - A new housing provident fund policy in Chengdu broadens eligibility for converting commercial loans to provident fund loans, potentially stimulating demand [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, new home transaction volume in 40 cities reached 26,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 168.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%. The transaction area was 2.702 million square meters, up 170.6% month-on-month and down 22.9% year-on-year [17][24] - Transaction volumes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of 130.8%, 220.2%, and 122.2% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -35.3%, 0.01%, and -34.9% [17][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transactions totaled 20,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 193.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. The transaction area was 183,300 square meters, up 188.9% month-on-month and down 30.9% year-on-year [45][50] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities saw month-on-month transaction growth rates of 241.6%, 184.7%, and 163.8% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -27.5%, -30.7%, and -33.9% [45][51] 3. Inventory and Depletion Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 14.1 million units, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.05% and a year-on-year decline of 13.7%. The depletion cycle for new home inventory was 20.9 months, down 0.8 months month-on-month and up 0.4 months year-on-year [27][39] - The depletion cycle for new homes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities was 21.0, 17.8, and 88.6 months respectively, with month-on-month declines of 0.6, 0.9, and 5.2 months [39][43] 4. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 8.157 million square meters, down 28.4% month-on-month and down 59.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 20.16 billion yuan, down 51.1% month-on-month and down 57.9% year-on-year [60][63] - The average land price was 2,471.3 yuan per square meter, down 31.7% month-on-month but up 4.1% year-on-year. The land premium rate was 2.2%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [60][64] 5. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced reforms focusing on housing supply systems and urban construction, aiming to establish a new mechanism for real estate development [97]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that investment recovery will be slower than in previous cycles, with projected declines in investment, new starts, and completions for 2025 [2][3][20]. - Sales metrics remain weak, with both sales area and sales amount showing declines. However, the report suggests that the industry is at a bottoming stage, with potential for demand recovery driven by proactive policies [21][34]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds. The report expects a gradual improvement in funding conditions as industry policies continue to relax [35][37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to September 2025, total real estate investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.9%. In September alone, investment dropped by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - New starts and construction activities also showed declines, with new starts down 18.9% year-on-year and construction down 9.4% [20][21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. The sales amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [21][34]. - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline in September [32][34]. Funding Side - Cumulative funding sources for real estate development from January to September 2025 totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources was 11.5% [35][37]. - Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw significant declines, with domestic loans down 14.6% in September compared to the previous month [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

转自：智通财经 【房地产板块震荡走高 香江控股等多股涨停】智通财经10月21日电，房地产板块盘中震荡走高，香江 控股、光明地产、盈新发展、财信发展涨停，上实发展、大悦城、新城控股、珠江股份等跟涨。消息面 上，10月20日，国家统计局发布9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。数据显示，9月份，70 个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继续呈收窄态势。 ...

开竣工边际改善，房价仍有压力 证券研究报告 房地产 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 20 日│中国内地 行业月报 行业仍在筑底企稳之中，更看好核心城市资源充沛的房企 9 月数据显示行业仍处于筑底企稳之中，边际上开竣工面积与销售金额当月 同比降幅收窄，但房价环比仍有下行压力，市场全面修复尚未到来。我们更 看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市复苏节奏，以及在对应区域拥有储备或新 获取资源的房企的估值修复，推荐具备"好信用、好城市、好产品"逻辑的 地产股，分红与业绩稳健的头部物管公司。重点推荐：1）A 股开发：城建 发展、城投控股、新城控股、滨江集团、招商蛇口；2）港股开发：华润置 地、建发国际集团、中国海外发展、绿城中国、越秀地产；3）物管公司： 绿城服务、华润万象生活、万物云、招商积余。 开发投资当月同比降幅扩大，开竣工边际改善 9 月房地产开发投资当月同比降有所扩大，开竣工边际有所改善，施工面积 延续下滑。9 月开发投资额当月同比-21%，降幅较 8 月扩大 1.8pct，1-9 月 累计同比-14%。区分开发链条来看：1）拿地：9 月土地市场成交情况边际 好转，成交建面/成交金额分别同比-1%/-7%（8 月- ...