Group 1 - The real estate sector showed strong performance, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rising by 2.68% as of 10:49 AM on September 26 [1] - Leading stocks included China Merchants Shekou, which surged by 5.53%, followed by Binjiang Group at 4.58%, and New Town Holdings at 3.26% [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, the real estate ETF (159707), saw an increase of 3.01%, with a trading volume exceeding 67 million yuan and a net subscription of 18 million units [1] Group 2 - A new round of housing market regulation in Shanghai has shown significant short-term effects, with new home transaction volumes increasing by over 30% in the first week and a total increase of 19% compared to the previous month [1] - According to Zhongyin Securities, structural policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen may lead to a short-term rebound in the real estate market [3] - The real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, which includes 13 leading real estate companies, demonstrating a high concentration of top-tier firms with over 90% weight in the top ten constituents [3]

9月24日-25日，新城控股（601155.SH）"2025第八届商业年会暨吾悦商管第一届悦链计划合伙人大 会"在上海西岸美高梅酒店盛大启幕，董事长王晓松携集团高管、与数千余位合作伙伴相聚与此。活动 以"双向奔赴·共绘幸福"为主题，旨在汇聚行业力量，把握合作机遇。新城控股期待与各方伙伴加强协 作、链接资源、携手促进行业稳步迈向新篇章。 直面商业存量化竞争，新城控股凭借规模化优势和持续进阶的商业精细化和专业化运营能力，始终保持 吾悦商管的竞争优势。基于对商业的系统性思考，本次新商会上，新城控股对外公布了迭代焕新后 的"吾悦经营五步法"，深度展示了公司在商业运营方面的独特思考。 新城控股立足当下，持续推动招商服务的进阶升级，于本次活动中全新推出"悦链计划"，旨在联合全国 范围内长期合作的优质品牌及代理商伙伴，共同构建一个开放、共生的商业生态系统，从"空间运营"迈 向"生态协作"。 吾悦经营五步法 深度聚焦精细化和专业化 据悉，今年的新城商业年会将实现"多方力量"的全景式汇聚。在过往新商会仅合作品牌方及行业嘉宾的 规模基础上，今年则战略性纳入代理商、轻资产合作方与资本方，这一转变也是新城商业年会进阶为行 业资源整合 ...

Core Insights - New City Holdings' stock price increased by 2.04% on September 26, reaching 15.98 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 36.045 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 33.61%, with recent trading performance showing a 1.40% rise over the last five days and a 19.16% increase over the last 60 days [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New City Holdings reported a revenue of 22.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 34.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.895 billion CNY, down 32.11% compared to the previous year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 14.595 billion CNY, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 8.68% to 49,300, while the average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 9.50% to 45,721 shares [2] - Major shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation, which holds 27.1172 million shares, a decrease of 557,000 shares from the previous period, and ICBC Convertible Bond (003401), which increased its holdings by 10.8632 million shares to 20.2184 million shares [3]

Core Insights - The event held by New城控股 focused on collaboration and resource integration within the commercial real estate sector, emphasizing the theme "Two-way Journey, Co-creating Happiness" [1] - The company introduced the "Five Steps of Wuyue Management," which aims to enhance operational efficiency and competitive advantage in the face of market challenges [2][3] - The launch of the "Yuelian Plan" signifies a shift towards creating a collaborative ecosystem among high-quality brands and agents, moving from "space operation" to "ecological collaboration" [1][4] Group 1: Wuyue Management Five Steps - The "Five Steps of Wuyue Management" includes: "Build Good Space," "Group Content," "Find Brands," "Achieve High Sales," and "Share Profits," focusing on refined and professional operations [2][3] - "Build Good Space" emphasizes creating quality experiences for consumers, supported by a comprehensive inspection system and a significant investment of 400 million yuan in 88 projects for space upgrades this year [2] - "Group Content" utilizes internal tools and scientific analysis to ensure effective project planning and brand placement, aiming to eliminate mismatched content [2] Group 2: Sales and Profit Sharing - The "Achieve High Sales" step introduces the "V8 Model," which provides brands with a sales performance evaluation tool, with a commitment to maintain marketing expenses annually [3] - The "Share Profits" step promotes a joint profit-sharing model, reinforcing the focus on sales performance and creating a positive feedback loop for marketing investments and brand incentives [3] - The company aims to align the operational goals of partner brands and investment capabilities, enhancing the overall vitality of the Wuyue commercial content [5] Group 3: Yuelian Plan and Ecosystem - The "Yuelian Plan" aims to create a sustainable resource connection platform by selecting ten compatible brands and eighty strong agents, focusing on mutual trust and efficiency [5][4] - The plan transforms traditional "one-way leasing" into a "three-way win" model, linking high-potential brands with capable agents to facilitate resource matching [4] - The vision of the Yuelian Plan is to establish a collaborative ecosystem among agents, Wuyue, and brands, fostering a sustainable strategic partnership [4] Group 4: Business Performance and Growth - New城控股 reported a total commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year growth [6] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, increasing its contribution to total gross profit from 57.21% to 77.06% [6] - The company has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, maintaining a high occupancy rate of 97.81% for Wuyue Plaza, showcasing its operational efficiency [6][7]

Core Insights - The event held by New城控股 focused on collaboration and resource integration within the commercial real estate sector, emphasizing the theme "Two-way Journey, Co-drawing Happiness" [1][8] - The company introduced the "Five-Step Management Method" for its commercial operations, highlighting its commitment to refined and professional management practices [2][4] - The launch of the "Yue Chain Plan" aims to create a sustainable ecosystem by partnering with high-quality brands and agents across the country, transitioning from "space operation" to "ecological collaboration" [1][5][6] Group 1: Five-Step Management Method - The "Five-Step Management Method" includes building quality spaces, organizing content, identifying brands, enhancing sales, and sharing profits, focusing on refined and professional operations [2][3] - The first step, "Building Quality Spaces," emphasizes the importance of creating appealing environments for consumers, supported by a comprehensive inspection system [2][3] - The second step, "Organizing Content," utilizes scientific analysis to ensure appropriate brand placement and operational efficiency [3] Group 2: Yue Chain Plan - The "Yue Chain Plan" aims to establish a three-way win model between agents, brands, and New城控股, fostering a collaborative commercial real estate environment [5][6] - The plan will initially select 10 compatible brands and 80 capable agents to ensure high-quality partnerships and operational success [6] - The initiative reflects a shift from focusing solely on growth metrics to prioritizing quality and mutual benefits among partners [6][7] Group 3: Business Performance - New城控股's commercial operations generated a total revenue of 6.944 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase [7] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, contributing to 77.06% of the company's total gross profit, up from 57.21% in the previous year [7] - The company has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, maintaining a high occupancy rate of 97.81% across its 吾悦广场 locations [7][8]

Group 1 - New City Development Holdings Limited issued $160 million of senior secured notes with a maturity of 2 years and a coupon rate of 11.88% [1] - The proceeds from the bond issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for daily operations [1] - This is the second dollar bond issuance by New City Development this year, following a $300 million senior unsecured bond issued in June with the same coupon rate [1] Group 2 - New City Development's parent company, New City Holdings, is likely issuing high-yield bonds to address upcoming dollar debt maturities [2] - As of the end of June, New City Holdings had non-current liabilities due within one year amounting to 13.788 billion yuan, an increase of 14.15% year-on-year [2] - New City Holdings has a remaining principal of $250 million on a public offshore bond that is due on October 15 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a significant decline in both revenue and profitability, with major listed companies reporting substantial losses and a challenging outlook for the near future [1][2][4][7]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, typical listed real estate companies achieved total revenue of 12,868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, while operating costs were 11,454 billion yuan, down 16% [1]. - The gross profit for these companies was 1,414 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit loss for the industry expanded to 2,762 billion yuan in 2023, further increasing to 3,397 billion yuan in 2024, and reaching 902 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. Profitability Ratios - The overall gross margin for the industry in the first half of 2025 was 10.87%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the entire year of 2024, while the net margin was -7.45% [4]. - Excluding companies that have faced financial distress, the gross margin for 27 stable firms was 15.09%, up 2 percentage points from 2024, with a net margin of 1.71%, indicating a recovery from previous losses [4]. Factors Affecting Profitability - The decline in profitability is attributed to high land acquisition costs, increased sales pressure, and asset impairment provisions, which have negatively impacted current profit performance [4][7]. - Companies are resorting to discount promotions to boost sales, leading to a situation where revenue increases do not translate into profit growth [4]. Industry Outlook - The industry is at a turning point, with a shift in policy focus from deleveraging to risk prevention, and a change in demand dynamics from broad increases to differentiation [7]. - Major companies like Longfor and Vanke express cautious optimism, highlighting the ongoing demand for quality housing in core urban areas despite recent price declines [7][8]. Strategic Planning of Key Companies - China Resources Land plans to maintain an annual opening pace of around six shopping centers, with a focus on public REITs to enhance asset value [9]. - China Merchants Shekou aims to optimize asset structure and enhance operational capabilities through a new asset management model [9]. - Longfor Group anticipates a 10% growth in its commercial sector and plans to open approximately ten new projects annually in the coming years [9]. - New City Holdings is focused on enhancing its commercial operations and leveraging financial policies to improve its capital structure [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year increase expanding. The transaction area for new homes reached 1.87 million square meters, up 11.8% month-on-month and 25.8% year-on-year, with a significant increase in year-on-year growth by 20.6 percentage points [5][15][24] - The Shanghai government has optimized the property tax policy for non-resident buyers, allowing for a tax exemption on 60 square meters per person for families purchasing second or more homes, effective from January 1, 2025 [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of September 13 to September 19, 2025, the new home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the second-hand home transaction area decreased month-on-month. The inventory area for new homes increased month-on-month, and the de-stocking cycle rose [15] - New home transaction volume in 40 cities was 19,000 units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 37.8% year-on-year. The new home transaction area was 1.87 million square meters, with similar increases [16][24] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.404 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.0% [27][39] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1.115 million square meters, down 10.9% month-on-month and 39.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 14.33 billion yuan, down 49.1% month-on-month and 73.1% year-on-year [60][64] - The average land price per square meter was 1,289.5 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 42.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.5% [61][66] 3. Company Announcements and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 8.71 billion yuan, up 18.9% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The total repayment amount was 15.8 billion yuan, up 43.5% month-on-month and 102.6% year-on-year [54][56] - The report highlights key companies such as Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property as potential investment opportunities based on their market positioning and performance [5][13]