9 月销售降幅收窄,优质房企逆势增长 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 年 9 月房企销售数据点评 事件: 9 月 30 日，克而瑞发布 2025 年 9 月房地产公司销售排行，保利单月销售排名第一，实现销售金 额 205 亿元，中海、华润单月销售额分别为 202、176 亿元，排名第二、三位，前三门槛从去年同 期 169 亿元提升至 176 亿元。9 月单月销售过百亿房企为 6 家，较 2024 年同期持平。 点评: 若研究院 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2025 年 10 月 08 日 9 月房企销售额单月同比-10%/累计同比-17%，分别较前值+3.4pct/+0.8pct，降幅收窄。根据 克而瑞数据，2025年９月，50 家房企单月销售金额 1,802 亿元，同比-10%，较前值+3.4pct; 销 售面 ...

过去半年，由于陷入关联资金往来调查风波，物业企业新城悦服务集团有限公司遭遇停牌，其2024年业 绩报告延迟至今尚未发布。 9月30日晚间，该公司发布公告称，独立调查委员会已将调查报告与建议一 并提交新城悦董事会审议。根据调查结果，新城悦旗下公司五个银行账户的交易记录与该公司内部账单 记录存在不一致，原因在于新城悦相关人员在内部账单系统中删除了旗下公司与新城控股属下上海悦崧 实业发展有限公司之间的关联资金往来记录。（财新） ...

Core Insights - The decline of Wang Jianlin symbolizes a potential end to the era of commercial real estate in China, raising questions about the future of high-end shopping malls as foot traffic decreases [1] - The rapid expansion of commercial centers in China over the past decade has led to saturation, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a significant increase in the number of shopping centers and commercial space [3][5] Industry Development - From 2011 to 2024, the number of commercial centers surged from 816 to approximately 6,700, with total commercial building area expanding from under 100 million square meters to 630 million square meters, resulting in per capita commercial space growth from 0.03 square meters to 0.55 square meters [3] - The commercial real estate sector saw explosive growth due to rising consumer spending and economic development, with GDP increasing from 6.19 trillion to 15 trillion yuan between 2010 and 2020 [5][8] Market Saturation - By 2020, the market became oversaturated, particularly in lower-tier cities, leading to a significant drop in rental yields from an average of 8% to -10% as many projects were completed [8] - The average vacancy rate for shopping centers in key cities reached a four-year high, with cities like Fuzhou experiencing vacancy rates as high as 15.03% due to intense competition and market saturation [8][12] Impact of E-commerce - The rise of e-commerce, particularly mobile and online retail, has drastically changed the retail landscape, with online retail growth averaging 17.4% annually, while offline retail growth slowed to 3.5% [11] - The shift in consumer behavior has led to a decline in foot traffic in shopping malls, with many struggling to maintain high rental prices as online platforms dominate marketing and customer engagement [11][12] Future Outlook - The future of shopping malls in China appears bleak, with predictions that many will fail unless they are strategically located, can attract population inflow, effectively integrate online and offline marketing, and offer unique brands rather than homogeneous chain stores [12]

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2025-045 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于 2024 年年度报告的更正公告 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 关联方 | 本期发生额 | 本期期末余额 | 上期发生额 | 上期期末余额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新城悦服务集团有限公司 | 5,170,000,000 | 0 | 1,800,000,000 | 0 | 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"新城控股"）于 2025 年 3 月 29 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露了《新城控股 2024 年年度报 告》，因工作人员疏忽，导致原披露的报告中部分内容错误，现予以更正。具体内 容如下： 一、《新城控股 2024 年年度报告》的更正情况 （一）"第十节 财务报告"之"十一、关联方及关联交易" 之 "5、关联交易 情况"之"（13）关联方资金拆借" 更正前： 不适用 更正后： 从关联方资金借入： ...

新城控股集团股份有限公司2024 年年度报告 公司代码：601155 公司简称：新城控股 新城控股集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告 1 / 295 新城控股集团股份有限公司2024 年年度报告 重要提示 一、本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、完整 性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、致同会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）为本公司出具了带有强调事项段、持续经营重大不确定性段 落、其他信息段落中包含其他信息未更正重大错报说明的无保留意见的审计报告，本公司董事会、 监事会对相关事项已有详细说明，请投资者注意阅读。 致同会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）对本公司 2024 年度财务报表出具了带有持续经营重大不确定 性段落的无保留意见的审计报告，公司董事会、监事会对 2024 年度财务报表非标准审计意见涉及事项 进行了专项说明，详见公司同日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的专项说明全文。 四、公司负责人王晓松、主管会计工作负责人王晓松及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）管有冬声明： 保证 ...

Core Insights - New City Holdings (601155) demonstrates counter-cyclical growth amidst deep adjustments in the commercial real estate sector, indicating a profound change in its business operation logic [1] - The company introduced the "Wuyue Management Five-Step Method" and the "Yuelian Plan" during its annual conference, signaling a strategic shift from scale expansion to quality symbiosis [1][3] Industry Trends - The annual conference featured key insights from industry leaders, highlighting the need for commercial real estate to accurately grasp consumer demand changes amid a backdrop of consumption upgrading and segmentation [2] - Data analysis presented at the conference indicated that leading commercial operators have seen rental fee scales grow, with rental growth rates outpacing market expectations [2] Company Performance - In the first half of the year, New City Holdings achieved a total commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion yuan, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase [3] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, increasing its share of total gross profit from 57.21% to 77.06% compared to the same period last year, underscoring the commercial segment's role as a vital profit pillar [3] Strategic Initiatives - The "Wuyue Management Five-Step Method" focuses on five dimensions: building good spaces, organizing content, finding brands, increasing sales, and sharing profits, systematically constructing New City's operational framework [4] - The company has invested 400 million yuan in 88 projects for space renovation and quality enhancement, emphasizing the importance of quality space experiences for consumer retention and brand empowerment [5] New Business Models - The "Yuelian Plan" aims to create a sustainable resource connection and value co-creation platform by selecting quality brands and core agents, shifting from one-way recruitment to a three-way win model [5][6] - The first phase of the "Yuelian Plan" will involve the careful selection of 10 certified brands and 80 core agents, reflecting a focus on partnership quality rather than quantity [6] Future Growth Strategies - New City Holdings has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, with 175 already opened, covering over 16 million square meters [7] - The company is transitioning from a focus on scale growth to quality symbiosis, with plans for further refinement in residential and commercial operations [8] Regional Development - The launch of the "Gold Standard Wuyue Plaza" in Changzhou marks a significant step in enhancing commercial quality, with high foot traffic and sales figures reported shortly after opening [8] - Regional deepening strategies, such as the introduction of new Wuyue Plazas in Shandong, are expected to drive future growth through scale effects and brand synergy [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The report suggests that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline being further introduced. Core cities are expected to lead the recovery as they approach the bottom of the market [3][29]. - The "Good House" policy is expected to create a new development track with "new products, new pricing, and new models," which will improve the real estate market in core cities with lower penetration rates [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction volume of 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. First and second-tier cities increased by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant rise of 43.8% [4][29]. - For September 2025, the total new housing transaction volume in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 13 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September's transaction volume was 4.235 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [12][29]. New Housing Inventory - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 1.48 million square meters of new housing launched, with a total inventory of 90.309 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. The average monthly deprecation period was 24.8 months, an increase of 1.8 months [20][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant government efforts to stabilize the real estate market, including over 1.6 trillion yuan in funding for key projects and a 52% annual increase in rental housing loans. Local governments are also implementing various supportive measures, such as home purchase subsidies and policies to improve land use efficiency [29][30]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony capacity and facade materials, while Dongguan has launched a new home purchase subsidy policy [29][30]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue up to 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds. Other companies like China Merchants Shekou and CIFI Group are also actively engaging in financing activities [33][35]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 1.07%. The report notes that the real estate sector ranked 11th among 31 sectors in terms of performance [41][44].

2025 年 09 月 28 日 房地产 央行强调推动已出台政策落地见效 周观点：央行强调着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效 9 月 24 日，央行三季度例会召开，针对房地产行业明确两大政策主 线：一抓存量盘活，二稳市场预期。会议强调"推动已出台政策落地 见效，加大存量商品房和土地盘活力度"，将存量资产盘活作为巩固 市场稳定的抓手，指向化解房企库存压力、优化土地资源配置的务实 方向。 我们认为，九月核心城市供应提速，核心城市调控政策加力宽松，伴 随央行进一步强调前期政策落地的政策基调下，存量项目及土地收 储，以及城市更新政策有望加码推进。建议关注困境反转类房企：金 地集团、新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头绿城中国、中国金茂、滨 江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（9.20-9.26） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.6 万套，环比上周增长 15.1%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 59.3 万套，累计同比下降 6.1%。其中，一 线城市成交 4816 套，环比上周增长 3.4%，2025 年累计成交 16.9 万 套，累计同比增长 0.5%；二线城市成交 9563 套， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has successfully issued a second tranche of medium-term notes for 2025, indicating a recovery in its financing capabilities amid an improving environment for real estate companies [2][3] Group 1: Financing Activities - On September 25, New City Holdings issued medium-term notes worth 900 million yuan with a subscription multiple of 1.5 times and a coupon rate of 3.29% for a 5-year term [2] - Earlier in August, the company issued another medium-term note of 1 billion yuan with a subscription multiple of 2.28 times and a lower coupon rate of 2.68% [2] - On September 23, a wholly-owned subsidiary, New City Global, issued $160 million in senior secured notes with a 2-year term, backed by New City Holdings and its parent company [2] - In June, New City Development successfully issued $300 million in senior unsecured bonds, marking a significant return to overseas capital market financing for private real estate companies [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New City Holdings reported revenue of 22.1 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 895 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.85%, an increase of 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company maintained a cash balance of 10.296 billion yuan and a low net debt ratio of 52.44%, indicating a strong financial position [3] - Operating cash flow for the period was 1.512 billion yuan, reflecting efficient cash management [3] Group 3: Commercial Operations - New City Holdings achieved commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 11.8% year-on-year growth [3] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, increasing its contribution to total gross profit from 57.21% to 77.06%, with a gross margin of 71.20% [3] - The occupancy rate of Wuyue Plaza remained high at 97.81%, setting a benchmark for operational efficiency in the industry [3] Group 4: Market Confidence - Analysts from China Galaxy noted that New City Holdings has improved its sales prices and achieved a cash recovery rate exceeding 100%, indicating effective operations [3] - The company has maintained a strong commercial performance with double-digit growth in commercial revenue and high occupancy rates [3] - Moody's upgraded the rating outlook for New City Development to positive in June, reflecting confidence in the company's performance and stable financial structure [3]