Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" from Shenwan Hongyuan for the period of January 1 to January 30, 2026, achieved a return of 16.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index by 13.61 and 15.72 percentage points respectively [8][19] - Since the first release of the gold stock list on March 28, 2017, the cumulative return of the gold stock portfolio has reached 486.47%, with the A-share portfolio up by 361.41% [8][19] - The strategy judgment for the upcoming month suggests a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors for Alpha opportunities, while also indicating that upward resistance is increasing as the market transitions into a phase of sector rotation [8][16] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the main catalysts for February and seizing opportunities in style rotation, particularly in the food and beverage and real estate sectors [16] - In the cyclical sector, it is advised to continue monitoring quality targets that exhibit both Beta elasticity and Alpha value [16] - The report highlights the "Iron Triangle" stocks: Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, and Dier Laser as top picks, alongside other recommended stocks including Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [8][19] Group 3: Stock Performance and Recommendations - The top ten gold stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, Dier Laser, Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [19][20] - Guizhou Moutai is noted for its market reform and potential for exceeding sales expectations during the upcoming Spring Festival [20] - Hualu Hengsheng is expected to benefit from domestic chemical industry policies that enhance market structure, while Dier Laser is recognized for its strong competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector [20][22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The China property industry has shown an 11% year-to-date performance, outperforming the MSCI China index which is at 7% [1] - The current sentiment-driven rally is viewed as likely unsustainable due to a fragile housing market and high sector valuations [1] Core Insights - The rally is attributed to improved investor sentiment from positive policy news and a recent uptick in housing sales, influenced by a later Chinese New Year and mild policy easing [9] - However, there are multiple near-term headwinds anticipated, including: - Over-optimism regarding the physical market recovery [3] - Potential earnings misses for key developers in 2025, with profit warnings expected from Greentown, Longfor, and Vanke [4] - A decline in contracted sales in Q1 due to reduced saleable resources and a high base effect [4] - High valuations across the sector [4] Company-Specific Insights - Companies expected to face challenges include: - **Greentown**, **Jinmao**, **Longfor**, and **Vanke A/H** due to potential earnings misses and high valuations [4] - In contrast, companies favored for their fundamentals include: - **CR Land** and **Seazen A/H**, which are robust mall operators benefiting from consumption-boosting initiatives [5] - **C&D**, recognized as residential market consolidators with optimized landbanks supporting margins and positive earnings growth [5] Market Outlook - A potential sector pullback is anticipated as the results season approaches, with cautious guidance expected from developers regarding property sales, development margins, and earnings recovery [9] - The likelihood of further policy stimulus is seen as diminishing, especially before the Chinese New Year, given the recent improvement in home sales volume in tier 1 cities [9] - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook, predicting continued home price declines in top-tier cities over the next two years [9] Stock Ratings and Price Targets - The report includes a summary of stock ratings and price targets for various companies in the sector: - **C&D International** (OW, PT: HKD 20.62) - **CR Land** (OW, PT: HKD 39.20) - **Seazen A** (OW, PT: RMB 19.70) - **Greentown** (UW, PT: HKD 7.86) - **Vanke A** (UW, PT: RMB 2.70) [6] Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the broader market context and potential conflicts of interest in investment decisions [7][8] - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of fund flows into the sector, given the bearish outlook for the China housing market [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights and outlook for the China property industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both risks and opportunities within the sector.

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, particularly the impact of policies and market dynamics on the sector's performance and future outlook [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The issuance of real estate REITs by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to significantly change the real estate industry by improving liquidity, reducing financing costs (expected at 3.6%), and re-evaluating land assets [1][5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, requiring state-owned enterprises to avoid large-scale losses and high debt levels, with real estate investment growth expected to align with GDP growth (projected at least 4.5%) [1][6][7]. - The secondary market is anticipated to focus on fundamentals in March and April, with a potential stabilization in the second half of the year, particularly for leading companies and core cities [1][8]. - Despite a general pessimism in the real estate sector, the disclosure of risk performance has been thorough, leading to a valuation recovery and an upward trend in the overall market index [1][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - The real estate sector's stock performance has been in line with expectations, with stock prices typically leading transaction volumes, which in turn precede property prices [3]. - The property sector's dividend and special dividend rates remain strong, with an expected rise in CPI to around 1.5%, enhancing price stability and service trade elasticity for property companies [3][11]. - Companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and high-quality development, such as China Resources, Poly, and China Overseas, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [10]. - The potential for companies like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia to show resilience in the second quarter is noted, especially if policy expectations are realized [12]. - The focus on internal renovations rather than just external facade improvements is emphasized as a more certain path for enhancing living experiences and driving industry growth [14]. Conclusion - The real estate industry is at a pivotal moment, with policy changes and market dynamics creating both challenges and opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that align with high-quality development goals and those that can leverage the benefits of REITs to improve their financial positions.

Market Performance - The real estate development sector increased by 2.89% compared to the previous trading day, with Dayuecheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Top Gainers in Real Estate Sector - Dayuecheng (000031) closed at 3.73, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 909,000 shares and a transaction value of 329 million [1] - Sanxiang Impression (000863) closed at 6.70, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 570,600 shares and a transaction value of 374 million [1] - Deep Shenzhen A (000029) closed at 21.97, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 85,700 shares and a transaction value of 183 million [1] - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649) closed at 5.61, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 1,889,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.032 billion [1] - New Town Holdings (601155) closed at 17.85, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 464,600 shares and a transaction value of 812 million [1] Top Losers in Real Estate Sector - Yuehongyuan A (000573) closed at 4.44, down 8.45% with a trading volume of 1,597,200 shares and a transaction value of 719 million [2] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) closed at 13.97, down 5.10% with a trading volume of 622,900 shares and a transaction value of 886 million [2] - Shunfa Hengneng (000631) closed at 4.09, down 4.66% with a trading volume of 718,800 shares and a transaction value of 302 million [2] Capital Flow in Real Estate Sector - The real estate development sector saw a net inflow of 1.225 billion in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 598 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows in major companies such as Vanke A (000002) with a net inflow of 475 million, accounting for 15.58% [3] - Poly Development (600048) had a net inflow of 334 million, representing 10.82% of the total [3]

房地产ETF(512200)紧密跟踪中证全指房地产指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整 体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为11个一级行业、35个二级行 业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行业，再以进入各一、二、三、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制 指数，形成中证全指行业指数。指数前十大权重股分别为保利发展、张江高科、万科A、招商蛇口、海 南机场、衢州发展、万通发展（维权）、新城控股、滨江集团、先导基电。 房地产ETF(512200)，场外联接(A类：004642；C类：004643) 同时行业迎来多重政策利好共振，融资 "白名单" 展期5年为房企提供充足的资金周转缓冲期，精准缓解 流动性压力，商业不动产 REITs 试点启动有效激活房企存量资产，降低行业融资依赖度，叠加权威层 面明确行业基础地位与存量提质发展方向，政策端形成 "短期纾困 + 长期转型" 的完整支撑体系，持续 提振市场对行业的发展信心。尽管当前行业销售、价格仍处于承压阶段，但政策红利正加速释放，驱动 行业彻底告别高杠杆、高扩张的旧发展模式，向存量优化、产品提质、运营高效的高质量发展新阶段迈 进，行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant rebound in stock prices, with many companies seeing substantial gains, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - A-share real estate companies such as Zhujiang Holdings, Dayuecheng, Sanxiang Impression, and Shen Shen Fang A have risen over 10% [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, Contemporary Land has surged over 61%, while China Aoyuan and Longguang Group have increased by over 34% and 25%, respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Reports indicate that some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators to regulatory authorities, which were previously mandatory since mid-2020 [2][3]. - The "three red lines" policy aimed to control leverage and prevent financial risks in real estate, with key metrics including asset-liability ratios and net debt ratios [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market environment has led to a decline in funding for real estate companies, with a four-year average decrease of 17.5% in funds received, surpassing the 15.7% decline in new housing sales [4]. - The shift in the market has resulted in a focus on low-leverage, high-quality asset management by leading real estate firms, moving away from previous high-leverage expansion models [4][5]. Group 4: Future Financing Models - A new financing model is emerging, characterized by the "lead bank system," where a designated bank or syndicate oversees project financing, ensuring that funds are allocated appropriately [6]. - As of December 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies have undergone debt restructuring, with a total debt relief of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, easing short-term repayment pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has experienced a significant surge in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Real Estate Sector Performance - A-shares real estate ETF rose nearly 3%, while Hong Kong's property stocks surged over 6%, with notable increases in companies like Sunac China and Hongyang Real Estate, both rising over 20% [1][5]. - Specific stock performances included China Aoyuan up 27.4%, Sunac China up 23.3%, and Hongyang Real Estate up 22.58% [5][6]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector suggests a clean clearing of chips, with low valuations attracting investor interest [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Signals - The rise in real estate stocks coincides with a notable increase in the liquor sector, indicating structural volatility in the market as these sectors are seen as lagging behind in previous downturns [1][9]. - The recent surge in commodities, including gold and copper, reflects heightened inflation expectations, which could impact sectors like AI negatively [2][9]. - The performance of 30-year treasury futures has been unexpectedly strong, suggesting a complex market narrative that does not align with traditional economic theories regarding inflation and bond prices [3][9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics monthly, suggesting a more lenient regulatory environment [7]. - Analysts believe that recent policy adjustments, such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand homes and the lowering of commercial property loan down payments, may support a stabilization in the real estate market [7].

1月29日，新城控股涨5.11%，截至发稿，报17.06元/股，成交1.18亿元，换手率0.31%，总市值384.81亿 元。 资料显示，新城控股集团股份有限公司位于上海市普陀区中江路388弄6号新城控股大厦A座，成立日期 1996年6月30日，上市日期2015年12月4日，公司主营业务涉及房地产开发与销售。主营业务收入构成 为：房地产开发销售68.63%，物业出租及管理29.06%，其他(补充)2.31%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，国海富兰克林基金旗下1只基金重仓新城控股。国富中小盘股票A（450009）四季度减持 246.18万股，持有股数566.69万股，占基金净值比例为3.46%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮 盈赚取约470.35万元。 国富中小盘股票A（450009）成立日期2010年11月23日，最新规模21.88亿。今年以来收益5.71%，同类 排名2917/5551；近一年收益18.19%，同类排名3514/4285；成立以来收益412.56%。 国富中小盘股票A（450009）基金经理为赵晓东。 截至发稿，赵晓东累计任职时间16年153天，现任基金资产总规模150.89亿元，任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector experienced a volatile rebound on January 29, with several companies, including Dayue City and Sanxiang Impression, hitting the daily limit for stock price increases. Other companies such as New Town Holdings, Binjiang Group, Jingtou Development, and Huaxia Happiness also saw significant gains. [1] Group 1 - The regulatory requirement for companies to report the "three red lines" indicators on a monthly basis has been lifted for many firms, indicating a potential easing of regulatory pressure in the real estate sector. [1] - Some distressed real estate companies are still required to regularly report their asset-liability ratios and other financial indicators to specialized teams in their respective headquarters cities. [1]

Group 1 - The real estate sector is experiencing a volatile rebound, with major companies like Dayue City and Sanxiang Impression hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as New Town Holdings, Binjiang Group, Jingtou Development, and Huaxia Happiness are also seeing significant gains [1]