Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has launched the "Wuyue Plaza Holding Real Estate Asset-Backed Special Plan," marking the first issuance of consumer-type holding real estate ABS in China and the first by a private A-share listed company, setting a dual record in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuance scale of the ABS is 616 million yuan, with a corresponding debt portion of 410 million yuan, and a product term of approximately 25 years [1][4]. - The underlying asset for this ABS is the Wuyue Plaza located in the core area of the Qingpu District, which serves over 400,000 residents from more than 160 surrounding communities [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Significance - This issuance is expected to enhance New City Holdings' asset liquidity and optimize its capital structure, providing a new financing pathway for the commercial real estate sector [2][3]. - The ABS includes a continuous fundraising mechanism, allowing for the ongoing acquisition of quality assets, thus promoting sustainable development of the product [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, New City Holdings has established 205 comprehensive projects across 141 cities, with 176 operational and a high occupancy rate of 97.7% [2]. - The total foot traffic at Wuyue Plaza reached 950 million, with total sales exceeding 51.5 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 16% [3]. Group 4: Broader Financing Strategy - The issuance is part of a broader direct financing plan approved in May 2025, allowing for up to 20 billion yuan in various financing instruments, including ABS and REITs [5][6]. - New City Holdings has engaged in multiple financing activities this year to bolster liquidity, including issuing bonds and restarting dollar bond issuance to manage upcoming debt obligations [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating [49] - The real estate industry maintains an "overweight" rating [57] - The insurance industry maintains an "overweight" rating [86] Core Viewpoints - Global risk preferences have significantly declined, leading to asset price fluctuations and panic selling. However, China's capital market is expected to recover in valuation and experience significant development, with A/H shares, industrial commodities recommended for tactical overweight, and US dollars for tactical underweight [20][21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December has risen significantly, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. The Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize, and the policies of various industries will promote the improvement of industry fundamentals [8][15] - The technology theme is expected to return to the main line, and themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are worthy of attention [29] Summary by Directory Macro Reports - **Global Asset Performance**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, major global stock markets rose, commodities generally increased, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [5] - **US Economy**: Manufacturing new orders increased, housing price growth slowed, and consumer growth also slowed [6] - **European Economy**: Business confidence in the eurozone stabilized [7] - **Overseas Policies**: The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December rose to 80%, the ECB President said the current interest rate was appropriate, the UK's budget faced a "technical leak", Japan's bond - issuing plan tilted towards short - term bonds, and the BOJ's December interest rate hike expectation did not increase [8][9][10] - **China's Economy**: Consumption, investment, and production showed structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI marginally rebounded due to improved external demand, and the construction industry's business activity index also increased marginally, but the service industry's declined [13][15] Asset Allocation Report - **A/H Shares**: Tactical overweight is maintained due to multiple factors supporting China's equity performance, such as the release of micro - trading risks and the approaching policy window [20] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tactical standard allocation is maintained because of the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, and the central bank may take action to maintain market liquidity [20] - **Industrial Commodities**: Tactical overweight is maintained as industrial metals like copper may face supply - demand imbalances, with strong demand and increasing development costs [21] - **US Dollars**: Tactical underweight is maintained as the Fed's policy adjustment and the marginal convergence of the US economy reduce the dollar's allocation value [21] Strategy Reports - **Asset Overview**: Global risk preferences recovered, stocks and commodities rose, silver and copper prices hit record highs, and the dollar index weakened. A - shares and other major global stock markets generally rebounded, and the bond market showed a pattern of a bearish steepening in China and a bullish steepening in the US [23][24][25] - **Theme Analysis**: The trading heat of hot themes was stable, the technology theme returned, and funds flowed into AI and communication. Themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are recommended [29] Overseas Strategy Reports - **Fund Flows**: North - bound funds may have a small net inflow, and south - bound funds' inflow into e - commerce and retail reached a new high since October. Overseas funds showed different flow trends in different markets [36][37] - **Policy Tracking**: Domestic policies covered macro, industrial, and local aspects, and overseas policies included diplomatic, economic, and interest - rate - related policies [39][40][43] Industry Reports - **Steel**: Demand is expected to stabilize, supply is expected to contract, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to gradually recover. Companies with product and cost advantages are recommended [45][48][49] - **Utilities**: The proportion of long - term contract electricity in 2026 is expected to decrease, electricity prices may have limited declines, and the industry's valuation is expected to improve [52] - **Real Estate**: The transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities rebounded, and the spot - housing sales are beneficial to the industry's healthy development [57][58] - **Food and Beverage**: CPI data has boosted the sector's expectations. Different sub - sectors such as liquor, beverages, and snacks have corresponding investment recommendations [62] - **Robotics**: Overseas and domestic companies have made progress in the field of humanoid robots, and investment in this field is active. Core component suppliers and整机 manufacturers are recommended [67][68][69] - **Machinery**: The weekly operating load rate of industrial gases increased, and important projects such as the second - phase of the Huanneng Jintan salt - cavern compressed - air energy - storage project advanced. Related companies are recommended [73][74][75] - **Insurance**: In October 2025, the growth rate of life and property insurance premiums declined marginally. The industry is optimistic about the growth of the life insurance's new business value (NBV) in the 2026 opening season and the continuous improvement of the property insurance's combined ratio (COR) [83][84][85] - **Agriculture**: Corn prices rose, the pet food market showed different trends at home and abroad, and the pig - breeding industry needs to pay attention to the epidemic and demand. Related companies in different sub - sectors are recommended [88][89][90] - **Textile and Apparel**: The US clothing retail industry showed growth, and the overseas K - shaped consumption trend continued. Export - manufacturing and brand - end companies are recommended [93][94][95]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, forecasting EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 0.37, RMB 0.51, and RMB 0.61 respectively, with a target price set at RMB 18.34 based on a moderate PB premium of 0.65x for 2025 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company has successfully launched the first consumer holding real estate ABS in China, marking a significant milestone in innovative financing. This ABS, managed by Sinolink Securities, has an issuance size of RMB 616 million and a term of approximately 25 years [3][10]. - The company reported a total commercial operation revenue of approximately RMB 10.51 billion for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.82% and maintaining a high occupancy rate of 97.7% [3][10]. - The company has expanded its presence to 143 cities with 205 Wuyue Plazas, achieving a total foot traffic of 950 million, which is a 16.0% increase year-on-year, and a membership base of 49.17 million [3][10]. - The company has made significant strides in both domestic and foreign financing, successfully issuing USD 300 million in senior unsecured bonds and USD 160 million in senior secured notes, alongside medium-term notes in the domestic market [3][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 119.17 billion, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 58.48 billion in 2025, a decrease of 34.3% [2][4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 737 million in 2023, with a gradual increase to RMB 1.38 billion by 2027 [2][4]. - The company’s net asset return is expected to improve from 1.2% in 2023 to 2.0% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][4].

Core Insights - A total of 21 buy ratings were issued by institutions today, covering 20 stocks, with Guizhou Moutai receiving the highest attention with two buy ratings [1][2] - Among the rated stocks, 11 provided future target prices, with 7 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%, led by Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, indicating a potential increase of 79.56% [1][2] - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 0.82%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with notable gainers including Hu Guang Co., Sophia, and Shenzhou Digital [1][2] Company Summaries - Guizhou Moutai received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 2600.00 CNY, compared to the latest closing price of 1448.00 CNY [2] - Dongpeng Beverage also received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 340.00 CNY, latest closing at 269.03 CNY [2] - Shenzhou Digital was rated as "Increase" by Guotai Junan with a target price of 55.97 CNY, latest closing at 41.27 CNY [2] - Hu Guang Co. was rated as "Strong Buy" by Huachuang Securities with a target price of 37.90 CNY, latest closing at 31.30 CNY [2] - Other notable stocks include Jerry Shares, which was rated "Increase" with a target price of 73.20 CNY, latest closing at 62.07 CNY [2] Industry Insights - The basic chemical industry was the most favored, with stocks like Huhua Co. and Chuanheng Co. receiving buy ratings [2] - The computer and automotive industries also attracted attention, with two stocks each receiving buy ratings [2]

公司近况 公司近日成功发行"国金资管-吾悦广场持有型不动产资产支持专项计划"，发行规模6.16 亿元；近期亦 公布1-10 月经营简报。 评论 商业模式转型料将推升中长期估值，建议关注OCF等指标改善节奏。我们复盘年内股价走势并重申投资 观点：8 月中旬之前市场对公司博弈点为公开债违约风险降低，后续进入区间震荡阶段；向前看，我们 认为下一阶段（3-5 年内）投资逻辑为向资产运管平台转型，换句话说，开发业务现金流包袱能否顺畅 出清，并有能力实现可持续的分红。我们判断公司在三年维度内实现该情况概率较高，建议关注经营性 现金流以及资产负债表（如存货、应付账款等）相关科目后续改善节奏。此外，考虑持股比例后，我们 发现公司港股平台较A股折价幅度已升至30-33%（接近9.24之前水平），提示港股平台较高的估值修复 弹性与配置性价比。 盈利预测与估值 建议关注REIT平台构建对短期情绪的提振，以及中长期转型价值。我们维持2025/2026 年归母净利润 10.6/16.1 亿元的盈利预测不变，当前股价交易于0.54 倍/0.53 倍2025/2026 年市净率。 维持跑赢行业评级与18.5 元/股目标价不变，对应0.67 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][38]. Core Views - The report highlights two major opportunities: the rise of favorable policies for quality housing and the potential revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets due to the current monetary easing cycle [4][38]. - It suggests that while the real estate market continues to stabilize, core cities are expected to recover sooner [4][38]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of November 22-28, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction volume of 2.52 million square meters, a decrease of 1.7% week-on-week [6][9]. - Year-on-year, November transactions in these cities dropped by 35%, with first and second-tier cities down by 33.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 51.4% [9][10]. Second-hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.16 million square meters, an increase of 4.2% week-on-week [14][15]. - Year-to-date, the total transaction volume for second-hand housing is 5.37 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [14][15]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of November 22-28, 2025, 15 cities had a total of 1.37 million square meters of new housing launched, with a transaction volume of 1.03 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.75 [24][30]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.846 million square meters, a 0.4% increase week-on-week [24][30]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of REITs to include hotels and commercial offices [33][34]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs [33][35]. Company Announcements - New City Holdings successfully issued a private REIT with a scale of 616 million yuan [38][41]. - China Jinmao announced plans to sell 100% equity of its Sanya tourism business for 2.27 billion yuan [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in China is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities likely to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the elevation of housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [5]. Industry Data Summary - **New Housing Transactions**: In the week of November 22-28, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction of 2.52 million square meters, a decrease of 1.7% week-on-week. Year-on-year, new housing transactions in November dropped by 35% [6][9]. - **Second-Hand Housing Transactions**: In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total of 1.16 million square meters in second-hand housing transactions, an increase of 4.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date, second-hand housing transactions have increased by 0.7% [14]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of November 28, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 89.846 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4%. The average months of inventory depletion was 23.3 months, a slight decrease [25]. Policy and News Tracking - **REITs Development**: The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of public REITs to include hotels and commercial offices. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot for commercial real estate REITs [34][36]. - **Local Housing Policies**: Qingdao has introduced housing subsidies for talent, offering up to 300,000 yuan for doctoral graduates. Fuzhou plans to provide subsidies for families with multiple children, while Beijing's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the housing supply system [34][35]. - **Land Market Activity**: In Shanghai, nine land parcels were sold for a total of 17.33 billion yuan, while Wuhan's land sales totaled approximately 3.97 billion yuan [34][39]. Company Dynamics - **New City Holdings**: Successfully issued private REITs with a scale of 616 million yuan, backed by the Wuyue Plaza asset [5]. - **Vanke**: Engaged in discussions regarding the extension of a bond due on December 15, 2025, with a remaining balance of 2 billion yuan [5][41]. - **China Jinmao**: Announced plans to sell 100% equity in Jinmao (Sanya) Tourism Co., Ltd. for 2.27 billion yuan [5][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The initiation of commercial real estate REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to significantly enhance the development potential of commercial real estate in China, with a market space exceeding 10 trillion yuan [2]. - The planned commercial real estate REITs will complement existing infrastructure REITs, creating a comprehensive public REITs market in China, where the market capitalization of holding-type real estate and infrastructure assets accounts for approximately 60% and 40% globally [2]. - The pilot program for commercial real estate REITs aims to broaden the underlying asset base to include office buildings and hotels, thereby expanding the scope of asset revitalization [2]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization will facilitate direct financing for enterprises, optimize capital structures, and provide new options for strategic transformation from developers to asset managers [2]. - The commercial real estate REITs are seen as a crucial vehicle for constructing a new development model in the real estate sector, emphasizing the operational and sustainable development of existing assets [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report highlights two major opportunities: the elevation of housing policies and the favorable performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2]. - Recommended companies include: 1. Commercial Real Estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New Town Development 2. Quality Housing Enterprises: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Jinmao, Greentown China 3. Undervalued Recovery Enterprises: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments 4. Property Management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, China Overseas Property 5. Second-hand Housing Agencies: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. Market Context - The report notes that while the real estate sector in China is expected to continue facing challenges, core cities are likely to stabilize sooner, indicating a potential turning point for the market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [6][7][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully issued the first consumer private REITs in China, expanding its equity financing channels and establishing a virtuous cycle of investment, financing, management, and exit [4][6]. - The commercial real estate REITs pilot program initiated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to support the high-quality development of the commercial real estate sector [6]. - The company is transitioning from a developer to an asset manager, which is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth prospects [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 88,999 million - 2025: 59,785 million - 2026: 47,421 million - 2027: 44,086 million - The year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected to decline significantly, with a forecasted decrease of 32.8% in 2025 [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be: - 2025: 945 million - 2026: 1,113 million - 2027: 1,707 million - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve from 24.9% in 2025 to 34.7% in 2027 [5][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2027 [5][8]. Market Position and Performance - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company has opened 176 shopping malls with a total gross rental area of 1,630 million square meters and a rental rate of 97.8% [6]. - The company’s tax-adjusted rental income for the first ten months of 2025 was 109.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [6]. - The company’s ongoing focus on enhancing its commercial revenue and gross profit contribution is expected to support stable operations [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has issued the first consumer private REITs in China, expanding its equity financing channels and creating a virtuous cycle of investment, financing, management, and exit [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which is expected to support the high-quality development of the commercial real estate sector [6] - The company’s commercial mall revenue and gross profit share have been continuously increasing, indicating a stable operational performance [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 59,785 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 32.8% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 945 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.6% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.9% in 2025 to 34.7% by 2027 [5] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is 88,999 million yuan, with a net profit of 752 million yuan [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company operates 176 malls as of Q3 2025, with a rental rate of 97.8% [6] - The company is transitioning from a developer to an asset manager, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth prospects [6] - The company’s debt levels are decreasing, with interest-bearing liabilities down by 7.3% year-on-year [6]