点击上图▲立即收听 " 不论是中国和美国股市，它们的关键都在于三个点 ' 利率、风险偏好和企业利润 ' 。 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 年少不知工行香，错把科技加满仓。 年少不知农行好，错把汽车当成宝。 年少不知中行醉，错把白酒当安慰。 年少不知建行强，错把芯片当栋梁。 当西方投资者为英伟达冲上 4 万亿美元市值而欢呼时，太平洋对岸的中国投资者，也迎来了自己的"银伟达"。 2025 年 7 月 9 日晚，全球芯片巨头英伟达股价触及 164.42 美元，总市值突破 4 万亿美元大关，创下历史纪录。 美国纽约证 券 交易大厅上显示英伟达公司 " 随后两个交易日， A 股银行板块持续走强， 工农中建四大行股价持续创下历史新高。 由于今年银行股的涨势过于疯狂，股民开始把 " 银行 " 与 " 英伟达 " 结合起来，将银行股称为 "银伟达" ，把上证指数叫作"银斯达克"。 在大金融的带领之下，上证指数成功突破关键点位，稳稳站上 3500 点大关，尽管在周五，早盘的过猛攻势导致银行板块有所回落，但"银伟达"的 迅猛势头依然牢牢吸引了市场的目光。 再说个冷知识， A股35年历史中，真正站稳过3500点就三次， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in business loan interest rates below 3% among various banks reflects a competitive pricing strategy driven by weak credit demand and the search for quality assets [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Several major banks have reduced business loan rates, with some products now available at rates as low as 2.4% [2]. - The average interest rate for small and micro enterprises has fallen below 3% [2]. - Banks are engaging in a price war, with state-owned banks and joint-stock banks leading the way in lowering rates to attract clients [2][3]. Group 2: Loan Approval and Monitoring - Banks are increasingly emphasizing the monitoring of loan fund flows, focusing on genuine business operations and purposes [4]. - There is a tightening of loan approval processes, particularly for businesses without substantial operational history [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - In response to low-price competition, banks are diversifying their services to enhance customer relationships and increase overall revenue [5]. - Banks are shifting from a singular focus on business loans to providing comprehensive solutions that address broader business challenges [5][6]. - Regulatory bodies are advocating for improved pricing strategies and risk management to prevent excessive competition [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks are experiencing a peak in dividend distribution, with total dividends for 2024 exceeding 630 billion yuan, marking an increase of 20 billion yuan from the previous year, and setting a new historical high [1][4]. Dividend Distribution - On July 11, both China Merchants Bank and Xi'an Bank distributed cash dividends, with China Merchants Bank paying 2.000 yuan per share, totaling approximately 50.44 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of about 5.7% based on a hypothetical share price of 35 yuan [2][3]. - Xi'an Bank distributed 1 yuan for every 10 shares, amounting to 444 million yuan, which represents 17.37% of its net profit [2]. - On July 10, Beijing Bank and CITIC Bank also executed dividend distributions, with Beijing Bank distributing 0.2 yuan per share, totaling 4.23 billion yuan, and CITIC Bank distributing 0.1722 yuan per share, totaling 9.582 billion yuan [3]. Overall Dividend Performance - As of July 11, 33 A-share listed banks have completed their 2024 annual dividend distributions, with five more having announced their plans [3]. - The six major state-owned banks maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 30%, with total cash dividends reaching 420.63 billion yuan, led by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with 109.77 billion yuan [4]. Mid-term Dividend Plans - Several banks are planning mid-term dividends for 2025, with institutions like Changsha Bank and Su Nong Bank expressing intentions to enhance shareholder returns through mid-term distributions [5][6]. - The trend of increasing mid-term dividends is seen as a strategy to improve investor satisfaction and share the benefits of high-quality growth [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict a narrowing decline in net profit and revenue for listed banks in the first half of the year, with expectations of a 0.9% year-on-year decrease in revenue and a 0.5% decrease in net profit [7]. - The current market environment is viewed as the beginning of a long-term upward trend for bank stocks, supported by low interest rates and the revaluation of RMB assets [7].

Core Points - The China Securities Index Equal Weight 90 Index (CSI Equal Weight 90) opened high and fluctuated, rising by 0.33% to 2704.23 points with a trading volume of 259.968 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the CSI Equal Weight 90 Index has increased by 4.01%, and over the past three months, it has risen by 6.48%, while it has decreased by 0.05% year-to-date [1] - The index consists of 90 listed companies, including the top 50 from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 40 selected from the Shenzhen market, reflecting the overall performance of large-cap, liquid stocks [1] Index Holdings - The top ten weights in the CSI Equal Weight 90 Index are: Zhongji Xuchuang (1.43%), Xinyi Sheng (1.39%), Hudian Co. (1.38%), Sunshine Power (1.31%), Tianfu Communication (1.28%), WuXi AppTec (1.27%), Bank of Communications (1.27%), Bank of China (1.27%), Ping An Bank (1.21%), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1.21%) [1] - The index's holdings are distributed with 54.98% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 45.02% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] Industry Composition - The industry composition of the CSI Equal Weight 90 Index includes: Information Technology (20.78%), Industrials (17.81%), Financials (17.49%), Communication Services (10.42%), Consumer Discretionary (8.50%), Consumer Staples (6.41%), Materials (5.68%), Health Care (4.46%), Energy (4.15%), Real Estate (2.17%), and Utilities (2.14%) [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] Fund Tracking - Public funds tracking the CSI Equal Weight 90 Index include: Yinhua CSI Equal Weight 90 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The former chairman of China Construction Bank (Macau), Jiang Yisheng, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, indicating potential governance issues within the bank [1][4]. Group 1: Company Background - Jiang Yisheng, born in 1967, holds a master's degree in economics and is a senior economist. He has a long tenure at China Construction Bank, having served in various roles including Deputy General Manager of Guangdong Branch and General Manager of CCB Macau [4]. Group 2: Investigation Details - Jiang Yisheng is currently undergoing disciplinary review by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Guangdong Provincial Supervisory Committee, highlighting ongoing scrutiny of leadership within financial institutions [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that bank stocks have replaced long-term government bonds as the preferred investment choice in 2025, with all banks experiencing price increases and many reaching historical highs [1][2] - In 2025, 18 banks have set historical highs, with 16 banks increasing by over 20% and 32 banks by over 10%, while the Shenwan Bank Index has risen by 35.49% in the past year [1] - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to economic pressures leading investors to seek high-dividend sectors, similar to the previous year's trend with long-term bonds [1][2] Group 2 - Insurance funds, which were previously focused on local government bonds and real estate bonds, have shifted to bank stocks due to their high dividends that cover liability costs [2] - As of Q1 2025, insurance institutions hold A-share bank stocks valued at 265.78 billion, accounting for 45.05% of their heavy industry allocation [2] - Policy changes have facilitated insurance investments in bank stocks, with multiple instances of insurance companies increasing their stakes in banks in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The issuance of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds by commercial banks has accelerated, with over 800 billion issued in 2025, indicating strong capital-raising efforts [3] - The average price-to-book ratio for A-share listed banks was 0.74 as of July 11, 2025, with the highest being 1.09 for China Merchants Bank [3] Group 4 - The price-to-book ratio for major banks has nearly doubled since its lowest point in November 2022, driven by policy support and asset scarcity [4] - The sustainability of the current rise in bank stocks is questioned, as policy support has limits and is aimed at improving the financial health of banks [4] Group 5 - Despite the current profitability of commercial banks, net interest margins are declining, and asset growth is slowing, which may lead to reduced profit growth in the future [5] - The total assets of commercial banks grew by 7.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but this is a significant decrease from the previous year's growth of 11.7% [5] Group 6 - Future banking strategies may involve reducing asset scales to alleviate capital pressure, suggesting limited upward momentum for bank stock prices [6] - The rise in bank stock prices is viewed as a temporary phenomenon, and investors are advised to approach with caution [6]

Core Insights - The mobile banking app market in China is entering a mature stage, characterized by refined operations and competition among existing players [2][4] - The integration of AI technology is accelerating the transformation of the banking industry, with potential productivity gains of up to $340 billion globally [7] - The user base of mobile banking apps in China has surpassed 700 million, with a peak of 713 million expected between 2023 and 2025 [4] Group 1: Market Overview - The mobile banking app has become a key platform for commercial banks to expand service boundaries and enhance user experience amid the digital transformation [1] - The market is transitioning from early channel migration to a new phase characterized by intelligence, scenario-based services, and inclusivity [1][2] - The overall traffic of mobile banking apps is expected to remain stable from 2023 to 2025, with fluctuations around a peak user base [4] Group 2: User Engagement and Activity - The active user base of mobile banking apps in China has exceeded 700 million, driven by increased demand for contactless financial services during the COVID-19 pandemic [4] - The average monthly active users (MAU) for major banks show significant disparities, with Agricultural Bank leading at over 230 million MAU, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank and China Construction Bank [12][16] - The MAU for various banks has shown mixed trends, with some banks experiencing growth while others face declines [12][19] Group 3: AI Integration in Banking Apps - AI technology is being deeply integrated into banking apps, focusing on intelligent interaction, risk control, and precision marketing [9][10] - The use of AI in banking apps enhances user experience through conversational services and improves operational efficiency [11] - Real-time transaction monitoring and multi-modal identity verification are key components of AI-driven security measures in mobile banking [10] Group 4: Performance of Major Banks - Agricultural Bank of China leads the MAU rankings with 23.7 million, showing a growth rate of 3.3% [13][16] - Other major banks like ICBC and CCB have MAUs exceeding 10 million but have experienced slight declines [13][16] - Among joint-stock commercial banks, China Merchants Bank leads with 6.9 million MAU, although it has seen a decrease of 3.5% [20][21] Group 5: Regional and Smaller Banks - City commercial banks have shown varied performance, with Jiangsu Bank leading at 373,400 MAU, reflecting a growth of 5.2% [27][29] - Rural commercial banks and credit cooperatives have also entered the top rankings, with several achieving significant growth rates [33][34] - The performance of private banks remains mixed, with WeBank and MyBank showing lower MAUs and significant declines [28]

Group 1 - Core stocks in the Shanghai market, including China Telecom, China Shenhua, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, Postal Savings Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank, experienced significant selling pressure during the closing auction phase, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors [1] - China Telecom, as a leading company in the telecommunications sector, has recently made moves in the eSIM business, but the market remains watchful regarding its short-term performance [1] - China Shenhua, a key player in the coal industry, also faced selling pressure, indicating that its price movements directly impact related index performance [1] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17,368.99 billion yuan, indicating active overall trading despite the concentrated selling of core stocks [2] - The unusual fluctuations in core stocks during the closing auction phase may suggest adjustments in fund allocation strategies, often associated with institutional rebalancing, index fund redemptions, or block trades [2] - The price discovery function during the closing auction is crucial, as it reflects supply and demand dynamics, allowing the market to correct stock prices and provide preliminary expectations for the next day's performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in the banking sector has significantly impacted the overall market performance, highlighting the sector's critical role in market dynamics [2][3]. Banking Sector Drop - On July 11, the previously high-performing banking sector experienced a notable decline, with nearly 20 banks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Changsha Bank, falling over 2% [4][5]. - Specific declines included: - Zheshang Bank: -2.90% at 3.68 CNY - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank: -2.82% at 13.80 CNY - Minsheng Bank: -2.70% at 5.40 CNY - Huaxia Bank: -2.68% at 8.35 CNY - Agricultural Bank of China: +0.16% at 6.32 CNY [5][6]. - The market sentiment may have peaked, leading to this decline, as discussions in investment groups and social media about the banking sector reached a fever pitch, even drawing comparisons between Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Nvidia [6][7]. Overall Market Performance - The overall market showed a slight increase on July 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.8% [9]. - A total of 2,960 stocks rose, while 2,206 stocks fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [10]. Other Sector Movements - The rare earth materials sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel hitting the daily limit [11]. - Securities stocks also performed well, with companies like China Merchants Securities and Zhongyin Securities reaching their daily limit [12]. - Stablecoin concept stocks remained active, with companies like Guoao Technology and Jinzhen Shares hitting the daily limit [13].

Core Viewpoint - The forum held in Nishan focused on the theme of "Traditional Culture and Modern Finance," discussing the balance between financial ethics and innovation, as well as the cultivation of a distinctive Chinese financial culture [2] Group 1: Financial Essence and Credit - The essence of finance is credit, which aligns with traditional cultural emphasis on integrity, as highlighted by Confucius and other historical texts [3] - Credit is fundamental to all economic activities and societal civilization, with a strong financial nation requiring robust currency, central banks, financial institutions, and international financial centers, all of which depend on credit [3] - The construction of a comprehensive credit system involves various types of credit, including social, judicial, institutional, corporate, and personal credit, necessitating collaboration among government, financial institutions, and society [4] Group 2: Integrity and Social Responsibility - There is a call for society to promote honesty and integrity while combating dishonest behaviors such as illegal fundraising and fraud, with the financial system playing a crucial role in fostering a credit culture [4] - Future efforts to enhance the integrity system should focus on legal constraints, precise institutional empowerment, and cultural nurturing to build a modern integrity framework [4] Group 3: Tradition and Innovation - Chinese culture emphasizes values such as benevolence, integrity, and justice, which should be integrated into modern financial practices to address issues of excessive profit-seeking [5] - The insurance industry exemplifies the alignment of traditional values with modern financial functions, emphasizing social stability and economic security [5] - Innovation in finance must respect regulations while also challenging existing rules, requiring a balance between adherence to traditional values and the need for modern financial innovation [6]