Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking industry has shown a recovery in profit growth, with net profit for commercial banks increasing by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.35 percentage points [13][14] - The overall asset growth of commercial banks continued, with total assets increasing by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, while loan growth slightly decreased to 7.26% year-on-year [29][30] - Net interest margin stabilized for two consecutive quarters at 1.42%, with expectations for a gradual recovery in 2026 [54] Summary by Sections Performance - The net profit of commercial banks increased by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing growth rates of 2.25%, -2.84%, 12.87%, and 4.57% respectively [13][14] - The return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) for commercial banks were 7.78% and 0.60%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.33 percentage points and 0.03 percentage points respectively [13] Scale - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, with state-owned banks showing a growth rate of 10.78% [29][30] - Loan growth for commercial banks was 7.26% year-on-year, with city commercial banks experiencing a counter-cyclical increase in loan growth [29][30] Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline of 10.50 basis points [54] - Expectations for 2026 indicate potential downward pressure on net interest margins in Q1, but a gradual recovery is anticipated thereafter [54] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was 1.50%, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.00 basis points, while the provision coverage ratio was 205.21% [54] Capital - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 10.92%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.05 percentage points [54]

股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural relaxation of refinancing policies, which is expected to improve profitability in the banking sector. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy report emphasizes the implementation of personal credit repair measures, supporting micro-entities [1][28]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the order of securities > insurance > banking, with a focus on the potential for marginal improvements in the brokerage business due to the recent refinancing policy adjustments [12][24]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The optimization of refinancing measures announced by the exchanges is expected to lead to marginal improvements in the brokerage business, with leading firms likely to solidify their advantages through professional capabilities. The Chinese brokerage index performed better than the Hang Seng index during the holiday period, increasing by 0.20% [2][13]. - Recommended stocks include leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional firms like Guoyuan Securities [3][12]. Insurance Sector - The report notes a mixed performance in the insurance sector, with property insurance companies showing gains while life insurance companies mostly declined. China Property & Casualty Insurance rose by 5%, while China Taiping fell by 4% [24][25]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality leaders in the insurance sector, with a preference for defensive stocks like China Ping An and China Life Insurance for conservative investors [24][25]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with Q4 profits improving and net interest margins stabilizing. The report indicates a year-on-year increase in social financing, primarily due to the pre-positioning of government bonds and a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing [28][37]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [3][28].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The banking sector's profit growth is showing marginal improvement, with net interest margins stabilizing and asset quality remaining robust [5][3] - Major banks are leading the industry in asset expansion, with total assets growing by 9.0% year-on-year as of the end of Q4 2025 [2] - The net profit of commercial banks increased by 2.33% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by stable net interest margins and declining credit costs [3] - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks improved to 1.50%, indicating a healthy asset quality [4] Summary by Sections Asset Expansion - As of Q4 2025, major banks and joint-stock banks saw a marginal increase in total asset growth rates, while city and rural commercial banks experienced a slowdown [2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans increased by 11.0% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed [2] Profit Growth - The net profit growth of commercial banks improved by 2.3 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, with significant rebounds in city and rural commercial banks [3] - The annualized ROE and ROA for commercial banks were 7.78% and 0.60%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year [2] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 2 basis points from the end of September 2025, with major banks showing a decline in non-performing loan ratios [4] - The provision coverage ratio for commercial banks was 205%, indicating a reasonable risk compensation ability [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on structural opportunities within the banking sector, highlighting specific banks such as Ningbo, Nanjing, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for their strong performance and dividend yield [5][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report analyzes 132 regional banks in the Sichuan-Chongqing area, highlighting the growth and structural changes in the banking sector [6][27] - The asset growth rates of major city commercial banks in the region are higher than those of listed city commercial banks, indicating a robust expansion [38] - Profitability metrics show that city commercial banks in the region have lower ROE compared to listed banks, while rural commercial banks outperform them [6][27] - Asset quality is slightly weaker in regional banks compared to listed banks, with higher non-performing loan ratios [6][27] Summary by Sections Economic Structure Analysis - Sichuan province is positioned as a key driver for western development, with a focus on enhancing the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [13][14] - In 2025, Chengdu's GDP is projected to account for 38.7% of the province's total, with significant growth in various sectors [15] Banking Sector Overview - The Sichuan-Chongqing region has 132 commercial banks, including 14 city commercial banks, 65 rural banks, and 51 rural commercial banks [27] - The asset growth rates for major city commercial banks in the region are 15.6% and 18.2%, surpassing the 14.2% growth of listed city commercial banks [38] Asset and Liability Structure - The proportion of loans to total assets has been increasing since 2016, with city commercial banks in Sichuan projected to have a loan ratio of 56.1% by 2024 [38][40] - The financial investment ratio for city commercial banks is on a downward trend, with a slight recovery noted in the first half of 2025 [40][46] Profitability and Asset Quality - The average ROE for city commercial banks in the region is 10.97%, lower than the 11.99% average for listed city commercial banks [6][27] - Non-performing loan ratios for city commercial banks in the region are higher than those of listed banks, indicating potential asset quality concerns [6][27] Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios for regional banks are comparable to those of listed banks, providing a safety margin for operations [6][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of personal credit repair policies and the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to support high-quality development [3][5] - The social comprehensive financing cost has decreased, with the weighted average interest rate for new loans at approximately 3.15%, down 10 basis points from September [2] - The report highlights the rapid growth of asset management products, which is changing the deposit structure and maintaining liquidity stability [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Personal Credit Repair and Risk Prevention - The central bank has introduced a one-time personal credit repair policy to support individuals with overdue information under 10,000 yuan after full repayment, aiming to stimulate micro-entity vitality [4] Section 2: Financing Costs and Credit Structure - The weighted average interest rates for general loans and corporate loans have decreased to 3.55% and 3.10%, respectively, while personal housing loan rates remained stable at 3.06% [2] - Loans for technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital economy sectors have shown significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 11.5%, 20.2%, 10.9%, and 14.1% respectively [2] Section 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collaboration - The central bank has increased the quotas for re-loans aimed at technological innovation and small enterprises by 900 billion yuan, alongside a dedicated 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [3] - The green loan balance reached 44.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth, indicating a robust green finance market [3] Section 4: Liquidity and Credit Governance - The report suggests observing liquidity from a combined perspective of asset management products and bank deposits, noting an 8.1% year-on-year growth in total liquidity indicators [4] - The overall social financing environment remains loose, supporting the ongoing credit repair initiatives [4] Section 5: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable growth in financial totals and implement moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on price recovery and risk prevention [5] - The report outlines the need for improved market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms to better reflect loan market rates [5]

Group 1 - Chengdu Bank executed a block trade of 1.8237 million shares on February 9, with a transaction value of 30.0363 million yuan, accounting for 6% of the total trading volume for the day [1] - The transaction price was 16.47 yuan, which remained stable compared to the market closing price of 16.47 yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]