2025 年 4 季度公募基金银行持仓点评 主动基金配置比例仍处低位 glmszqdatemark 分析师：王先爽 分析师：乔丹 执业证书：S0590525120014 执业证书：S0590526010003 邮箱：wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn 邮箱：qiaodan@glms.com.cn 推荐 维持评级 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 银行 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 01 月 25 日 [Table_Author] 25Q4 公募基金持仓银行情况。为了追踪市场偏股公募基金对银行的持仓情况， 我们把其分为三类：1、主动基金：主动股票、偏股混合和灵活配置型基金；2、 ETF 基金：追踪沪深 300、中证 A500 等与银行相关的主要指数的 ETF 基金；3、 非 ETF 指数基金：追踪以上主要指数的非 ETF 类被动指数、指数增强型基金。25 年四季度主动、ETF 和非 ETF 指数基金分别持有银行板块 305.8、2607.2、574.1 亿元，分 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 票 研 究 主动基金环比持平，被动基金增持 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 25Q4 主动基金对银行持仓比例环比持平于 1.9%，被动基金持仓比例环比+1.6pct 至 7.0%，其中宁波银行、兴业银行、中国银行、建设银行等获主动基金增配。 25Q4 基金对银行持仓点评 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2025 年四季度基金重仓持股情况披露（主动基金包括普通股票型、 偏股混合型、灵活配置型，被动基金包括被动指数型、指数增强型）： [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《国有大行投放力度较大，不良压力或 企稳》20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of 127 regional banks in Jiangsu Province, highlighting their asset and liability structures, profitability, and asset quality [6][18] - Jiangsu's regional banks have shown a significant increase in asset growth, with major city commercial banks growing at 19.4%, surpassing the growth of listed city commercial banks at 14.2% [24][26] - The report indicates that the loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is projected to reach 48.4% in 2024, reflecting a gradual increase in lending activities [30] - Jiangsu's regional banks exhibit better return on assets (ROA) compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks outperforming by 16 basis points and rural commercial banks by 9 basis points [6][42] - The asset quality of Jiangsu's regional banks is superior to that of listed banks, with lower non-performing loan ratios and higher provision coverage ratios [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Structure of Jiangsu Province - Jiangsu Province is focusing on new industrialization and strategic emerging industries, with significant contributions from cities like Nanjing and Suzhou [13][14] 2. Overview of 127 Regional Banks in Jiangsu - The report categorizes the banks into city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and others, with a total of 127 banks established between 2006 and 2015 [18][20] 3. Asset/Liability Structure - The asset growth of major city commercial banks is accelerating, while rural commercial banks are experiencing a decline in growth rates [24][26] - The loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is expected to increase to 48.4% by 2024, indicating a shift towards more lending [30] 4. Profitability - Jiangsu's regional banks have a higher ROA compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks showing a 16 basis point advantage [6][42] 5. Asset Quality/Capital Levels - Jiangsu's regional banks maintain a lower non-performing loan ratio compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks having a 30 basis point lower ratio [6][42]

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅%↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601229 | 上海银行 | 1 | -2.30 | 1329亿 | -7.43 | | 601128 | 常熟銀行 | | -1.51 | 238亿 | 1.99 | | 601998 | 中信銀行 | 1 | -1.47 | 4107亿 | -4.16 | | 601166 | 兴业银行 | 1 | -1.40 | 4038亿 | -9.40 | | 002142 | 宁波银行 | 1 | -1.39 | 1921亿 | 3.56 | | 601838 | 成都银行 | | -1.26 | 664亿 | -2.85 | | 600000 | 浦发银行 | 1 | -1.13 | 3500亿 | -15.51 | | 600919 | 江苏银行 | 兼 | -1.12 | 1786亿 | -3.44 | | 601398 | 工商银行 | 1 | -1.10 | 25626亿 | -9.33 | | 600926 | 杭州银行 | 张 | -1.04 | ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for all major banks analyzed, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The digital renminbi has entered its 2.0 era, transitioning from a central bank liability (M0) to a commercial bank liability (M1), allowing it to earn interest and be included in deposit insurance and reserve requirements [6][14]. - This transformation positions China as the first economy to offer interest on its central bank digital currency (CBDC), fundamentally altering its monetary attributes and creating a new financial paradigm in the digital economy [27]. - The digital renminbi's interest-bearing feature enhances user motivation to hold it, shifting its perception from a mere payment tool to a viable store of value, thus promoting its integration into everyday financial activities [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Digital Renminbi 2.0 Era - The digital renminbi (e-CNY) is now classified as a digital deposit currency, which can earn interest and is managed under a new regulatory framework [14]. - Major state-owned banks have begun offering interest on digital renminbi wallet balances, marking a significant shift in its utility and appeal [14][27]. 2. Development Progress and Application Status - The development of the digital renminbi began in 2014, with significant milestones including pilot tests in various cities and the establishment of a comprehensive operational framework by 2025 [32][33]. - As of November 2025, the digital renminbi has processed 34.8 billion transactions amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan, with extensive coverage across multiple provinces and cities [37]. 3. Global CBDC Development Trends - The report identifies three main trends in global CBDC development: active retail CBDC initiatives, innovation in payment systems, and cautious approaches in some countries like the U.S. [6]. - China's proactive stance in developing its CBDC positions it favorably in the global digital economy landscape, particularly in cross-border trade applications [30].

Market Overview - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.55% on January 21, with Chongqing Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Ningbo Bank closed at 28.88, with an increase of 1.16% and a trading volume of 432,300 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 1.246 billion [1] - Chongqing Bank closed at 10.25, down 1.82%, with a trading volume of 106,800 shares and a transaction value of 110 million [2] - Other notable performers include Xiamen Bank, which closed at 7.13, down 1.66%, and Chengdu Bank, which closed at 15.72, down 1.38% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 508 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 566 million [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates that Hangzhou Bank had a net inflow of 158 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 86.5 million from retail investors [3] - Shanghai Bank also saw a net inflow of 107 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 121 million from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top-performing stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index as of January 20, 2026, showcasing significant daily and year-to-date gains along with dividend yields [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The top stock, Gujia Home Furnishing (603816.SH), experienced a daily increase of 7.82% and a year-to-date increase of 9.95%, with a dividend yield of 4.40% [1][5]. - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) ranked second with a daily rise of 7.49% and a year-to-date increase of 22.68%, offering a dividend yield of 6.35% [1][5]. - Other notable performers include Jia Fei Industry (002572.SZ) with a daily increase of 5.63% and a year-to-date increase of 4.85%, and Hongya CNC (002833.SZ) with a daily rise of 4.73% and a year-to-date increase of 9.47% [1][5]. Group 2: Dividend Yields - The average dividend yield for the index is reported at 4.76%, with historical and expected price-to-earnings ratios at 1.34 times and 11.75 times, respectively [2]. - The dividend yields of the top stocks range from 2.42% for Jiufeng Energy (605090.SH) to 7.40% for Jia Fei Industry (002572.SZ) [1][5]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - The article mentions the formation of a MACD golden cross signal, indicating a positive trend for the stocks listed [4][8].

年初历来是银行信贷投放的"黄金窗口期"。为冲刺"开门红"业绩，多家银行通过下调利率、提速审批来 争夺优质客户。在社交平台上，不少贷款中介借此宣称银行"悄然放宽了信贷审批标准"。 中国证券报记者调研发现，尽管银行员工为完成业绩指标（有的银行要求1月完成全年贷款任务的30% 以上）而积极营销，甚至承诺若后续贷款降息可协助客户调整利率，但所谓的审批"放水"仅是贷款中介 的营销话术。银行实际的贷款审批，依然严格遵循大数据风控模型，对客户资质与资金用途进行审慎把 控。 ● 张佳琳 李蕴奇 "这个贷款利率是近期最低价" 从事贷款中介多年的小李告诉记者："在不同的月份，从银行贷款的'含金量'和'难度'是不同的。每年1 月都是银行'开门红'的关键期，此时从银行贷款能够实现额度放水、利率最低、审批开绿灯。" 小李特意嘱咐，哪怕现在不急着用钱，也要在1月把贷款办下来，别拖到2月。原因在于，经过1月的贷 款投放，很多银行的阶段性额度已经消耗殆尽。到了2月，银行会收紧口子，贷款审批标准也会变得严 格。 随后，记者分别以经营贷客户和消费贷客户身份，咨询了多家银行的客户经理。成都银行（601838）个 贷经理小于表示，1月正值银行"开门 ...

Core Viewpoint - Banks are reportedly relaxing credit approval standards during the "opening red" period to attract quality loan customers, although this is often exaggerated by loan intermediaries as a marketing tactic [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Strategies - Banks are engaging in a "price war" and "efficiency war" by lowering loan interest rates and speeding up approval processes to capture quality clients at the beginning of the year [2]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank offers a minimum business loan rate of 2.7% and a consumer loan rate of 3.0%, while Chengdu Bank has a consumer loan rate of 3.0% with additional incentives like cash coupons [2]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank has a consumer loan rate of 3.1%, which can be reduced to 3.0% with coupon usage, indicating a competitive approach to attract customers [2]. Group 2: Loan Intermediaries - Loan intermediaries are capitalizing on perceived relaxed approval standards, with over half promising "guaranteed low-interest loans" [3]. - These intermediaries often misrepresent their capabilities, claiming to have "internal channels" to secure loans, which are typically just a better understanding of bank products [3]. - Industry insiders emphasize that banks maintain strict credit approval processes, and any claims of relaxed standards by intermediaries should be approached with caution [3][4]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - During the "opening red" period, banks do increase credit supply, but they must adhere to strict regulatory requirements, ensuring thorough due diligence on borrowers' creditworthiness and loan purposes [4]. - Legal experts warn that consumers should be wary of intermediaries making false promises, as involvement in fraudulent activities can lead to serious legal consequences, including loan fraud charges [5].

Market Overview - Major Asia-Pacific indices showed a collective decline, with the A-share market also experiencing consolidation, as the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices performed weakly. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 2.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 72 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector rebounded strongly, with a notable increase in the price of a real estate ETF (159707) by 3.22%, marking multiple consecutive gains. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month in December 2025, with Shanghai seeing a slight increase of 0.2% [1] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching a new high since August 2022, closing up 1.27%. Major companies in the sector, such as BASF and Dow, have been raising prices across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The ETF attracted 1.148 billion yuan in the last ten days [1][4] - The chemical ETF has seen substantial net inflows, with over 5.8 billion yuan in net subscriptions in the last five trading days and 11 billion yuan in the last ten days. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set guidelines for zero-carbon factory construction, which may limit new capacity in the chemical sector [6][7] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience amid market volatility, with a significant number of bank stocks rising. The top bank ETF (512800) closed up 0.77%, ending a four-day losing streak. Historical data indicates that the banking sector has a high probability of generating absolute and excess returns before the Spring Festival, with an average return of 4.4% from 2017 to 2025 [8][11][14] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from continued growth in credit, supported by stable growth policies and a favorable low-interest-rate environment. The latest dividend yield for the banking index stands at 4.78%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.84% [14][15] AI and Technology Sector - The AI and technology sectors faced a downturn, with the entrepreneurial AI ETF (159363) experiencing a four-day decline. Despite this, the sector remains attractive for future investments, particularly in light of ongoing developments in AI applications and infrastructure [16][18] - The communication and semiconductor industries are expected to see increased attention due to their potential for earnings upgrades, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [18][20]